Why States No Longer Declare War

Why have states stopped issuing declarations of war? Declaring war was a norm of international politics for millennia, but now appears to have exited states’ behavioral repertoires. I argue that the proliferation of codified jus in bello, the law of war governing belligerent conduct, has created disincentives for states to issue formal declarations of war. The increasing number of codified international laws that govern belligerent conduct during warfare has made complying with the laws of war extremely costly. One way for states to limit these costs is to avoid admitting they are in a formal state of war by refraining from declaring war. I test this claim, as well as others, using an original data set. I also discuss several cases of nineteenth and twentieth century wars that illustrate the logic of this argument.     

Pioneers of peace research: II. Quincy Wright: Apostle of law

This is an interpretative review of Quincy Wright's A Study of War. In his anthropological and historical surveys, Wright traced warfare from the animals to the atomic age, including primitive warfare, civilized warfare, and modern warfare. These surveys suggested that war was primarily a function of civilization and imperialism. In order to control war, the conditions of peace have to be established. This means creating a new world order oriented toward justice and welfare rather than wealth and power. This is the task of world law, but the law cannot be effective without world acceptance of justice and welfare as standards of human behavior. A sense of world citizenship is required to support the law in its efforts to achieve justice, maintain order, and administer welfare. It would seem that something like world welfare is required to control world warfare.     

从马来西亚与日本的关系变化看冷战后东亚格局的演变

冷战后,东亚地区的国际格局发生了重大的变化,大国关系处于历史性调整时期。东盟在亚太地区的影响日益上升,并逐渐成为塑造东亚格局的重要一极。中国的崛起和日本实力的相对下降深刻地改变了东亚地区的国际关系。本文通过分析马来西亚和日本的关系演变,管窥冷战后东亚格局的演变。     

21世纪初俄罗斯周边地缘政治状况的量化分析

前苏联解体和冷战结束后,俄罗斯周边地缘政治环境发生了很大变化。利用量化分析方法(莱科标 度)建立量化体系,测量当今俄罗斯周边地缘政治具体的交化及程度。可以看出,当今俄罗斯地缘政治的状态是: 俄罗斯地缘政治状况最危险的区域在它的南部(外高加索、中亚地区),而最安全的区域是东部(东亚)。     

Eugene: A conceptual manual

The study of international relations using quantitative analysis relies, in part, on the availability of comprehensive and easily manipulable data sets. To execute large‐n statistical tests of hypotheses, data must be available on the variables of interest, and those data must be manipulated into a suitable format to allow the inclusion of appropriate control variables as well as variables of central theoretical interest This paper introduces software designed to eliminate many of the difficulties commonly involved in constructing large international relations data sets, and with the unavailability of data on expected utility theories of war.

In order to solve these two problems, we developed EUGene (the Expected Utility Generation and Data Management Program). EUGene is a stand‐alone Microsoft Windows based program for the construction of annual data sets for use in quantitative studies of international relations. It generates data for variables necessary to incorporate key variables from implementations of the so‐called “expected utility theory of war” into broader analyses of international conflict EUGene is also designed to make building international relations data sets simple. It accomplishes this by automating a variety of tasks necessary to integrate several data building blocks commonly used in tests of international relations theories.     

De Facto States in International Politics (1945–2011): A New Data Set

Sovereign states remain the primary units of analysis in conflict research. Yet, the empirical record suggests that the international system includes a wider range of actors whose behavior is relevant for conflict outcomes. This article introduces De Facto States in International Politics (1945–2011), a new data set dedicated to understanding the behavior of de facto states—separatist statelike entities such as Abkhazia. I begin by explaining why de facto states deserve attention. Further, I provide a definition of the de facto state that separates it from cognate phenomena. Thereafter, I offer an overview of the data set and illustrate its utility by demonstrating how it contributes to the literatures on war and state making, civil war, and rebel governance.     

从战略的高度看东亚合作与中日安全关系

冷战后,东亚地区各国在安全保障与经济合作以及非传统安全等问题上,形成了相互竞争与相互合作的新格局。中日之间在安全保障以及能源环境等问题上的矛盾与合作关系,集中反映了本地区安全问题的复杂性和紧迫性。如何通过加强多国间的政治对话解决区域内的政治与安全问题,通过共同开发与合作,有效地发挥各国在资金、技术和资源方面的互补性,逐步形成有向心力、平等合作、互补互利的地区安全与经济合作机制,是构筑合作与共生的东亚国际政治经济新秩序的关键所在。     

Considerations on the Cyber Domain as the New Worldwide Battlefield

The convergence of telecommunication and computer technologies that has evolved in the field of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the last two decades has had very important effects on new war technologies and the ongoing process of battlefield digitisation. The Stuxnet worm, uncovered in 2010 and responsible for the sabotaging of a uranium enrichment infrastructure in Iran, is a clear example of a digital weapon. The incident shows what is meant by cyber war and what the particular features of this new warfare dimension are compared to the conventional domains of land, sea, air and space, with relevance both at the operational and strategic levels. But cyberspace also extends to the semantic level, within the complimentary field of information warfare involving the content of messages flowing through the Internet for the purposes of propaganda, information, disinformation, consensus building, etc. The overall cyber warfare domain needs to be put into perspective internationally as many countries are developing strong cyber capabilities and an ‘arms race’ is already taking place, showing that these technologies can potentially be used to undermine international stability and security. What is needed is a public debate on the topic and its impact on global stability, and some kind of regulation or international agreement on this new warfare domain, including an approach involving confidence building measures (CBMs).     

历史视角下日本学界对东亚共同体的审视

日本学界通过不同的历史视角审视日本与东亚共同体的关系,并设定日本在东亚区域合作中的角色。积极看待古代东亚历史的日本学者,主张吸取近代日本殖民主义和帝国主义教训,日本应积极投身东亚共同体建设。强调东亚历史多样性和差异性的日本学者,主张日本应该借用西方的价值观念和东亚区域外的政治力量,进行东亚区域合作。而延续近代日本"脱亚入欧"历史视角的日本学者,坚决反对日本投身东亚共同体建设。     

2011年美国外交面临的挑战

2011年国际局势中的许多事态对美国的中东外交政策形成新的挑战。西亚北非的动荡和变局可能导致中东地缘政治版图重新绘制,对美国未来的中东外交必将带来许多变数;美国一巴基斯坦之间发生的事态可能对奥巴马政府的反恐战略及南亚战略提出新的挑战;巴勒斯坦不顾美国阻挠申请加入联合国,使美国与穆斯林世界的关系面临新的考验。这些挑战今后有可能进一步发酵,对美国全球战略产生影响,其中包括对奥巴马政府＂-3前高调进行的“重返亚洲”形成牵制。     

Preface

ABSTRACT

Although first explicitly coined in Renaissance Italy, the notion of a ‘balance of power’ – the conduct of state actors to meet the logics of power balancing – goes back to pre-modern times. Traditionally, scholars have looked to the Punic Wars and the early modern period as early evidence for the balance. However, the ancient Near East during the second-millennium BC has received far less attention. Yet Western Asia existed as an international arena of states fully integrated in a system based on interdependence and power balancing. In the field of International Relations, systematic analyses of this phase in world history remain under-developed. Accordingly, the question of when a systemic environment for the balancing behaviour existed for the first time has been addressed less in International Relations theory where the literature leans primarily on the European experience.     

局部等级视角下的东亚安全秩序与中美战略竞争

东亚秩序转型是冷战后国际关系学界争论的重要问题。在回顾既有争论的基础上,本文尝试从局部等级视角切入,分析东亚安全秩序的性质及其转型动力。局部等级体系由体系唯一超级大国领导的地区安全等级与区域内自助国家共同构成。冷战结束以来,东亚地区呈现出典型的局部等级体系特征,并在中国持续崛起的过程中逐步形成了以战略对冲为主要行为模式的安全秩序。尽管当前美国对华政策的对抗性不断增强,但是在局部等级体系下中国坚持战略对冲不但可以有效缓解自身面临的崛起困境,而且有助于防止中美陷入美苏冷战式的集团对抗,以战略对冲为核心特征的东亚安全秩序也将因此得以延续。这些发现一定程度上深化了地区安全秩序和大国竞争的理论研究,同时也有助于中美两国更为有效地管控其在东亚地区的战略竞争。     

Evolution of Maya Polities in the Ancient Mesoamerican System

The analysis of politics in antiquity presents new opportunities for political science and international relations, particularly the ancient New World ( c . 2000 B.C. to A.D. 1521). Governance through leadership and institutions, collective action, war and peace, alliance dynamics, regional hegemonies, interstate rivalries, and other universal patterns of world politicsexisted in Mesoamerica, antedating the modern state system. We report findings from a study to record systematically the rise and fall of Maya polities in the Mesoamerican political system, using sources from archaeology and epigraphy. Based on tests of competing hypotheses and new distribution statistics and hazard rates (survival analysis) for 72 Maya polities, our findingssupport a model of Maya political dynamics based on Preclassic origins, punctuated phases of development, multiple cycles of system expansion and collapse, and weaker political stability for increasingly complex polities. We draw two main implications: (a) a new theory of the Maya political collapse(s), based on their failure to politically integrate; and (b) confirmation for a newperiodization of Maya political evolution, different from the traditional cultural periodization, based on several cycles of rise-and-fall, not just one. Our findings may also make possible future investigations in areas such as the war-polarity and war-alliances hypotheses.     

New Event Data in Conflict Research

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988.

A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post‐World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918–39), bipolarity (1945–62), and polycentrism (1963–1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles.

The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from ‘necessary and sufficient’ to the “most likely” conditions as the most credible path to theory.     

External Interventions in Post-Cold War Africa, 1989–2010

The study of external interventions in conflict management is critical and has implications for international relations and conflict theory. Quantitative studies of the relationship between external interventions and civil war have been prone to some conceptual limitations (understudied lower-intensity periods) and data limitations (unavailability of event battle death data). This article presents a new external interventions data set covering the period between 1989 and 2010 for Africa, building on the Regan et al. (2009) data set, which covers the period between 1945 and 1999. Novel features of this new data set are: the recoding of the overlap period; a broader range of categories of intervention, including UN and non-UN missions; and wider temporal scope, by extending the period of analysis to 2010, by lowering the civil war threshold to 25 battle deaths, and by starting the conflict period from the date of the first battle death in each civil war (based on UCDP GED version-1.5-2011). The advantages of the data set are illustrated with an analysis of the different effects interventions have on high- and low-intensity conflict periods.     

Regionalism in Asia: Past and Future

In order to predict the future of East Asia in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis, Kenneth B. Pyle looks to the region's past for lessons. He assesses East Asia's 'old new orders' and deduces six major lessons from their history that can be applied to the current post-Cold-War interregnum. The region is gaining an unprecedented power to shape its own system and to influence the international order, but its current institutions are built on extremely fragile foundations. The risk is that we are in an age of rising nationalism within the region and the emergence of strategic rivalries, arms races, and competition for limited resources. Finally, in looking at Japan, Pyle predicts that the currently awkward US-Japan alliance will determine the region's stability, despite the fact that Japan will most likely continue to shy away from a proactive role in the area. These lessons lead to the argument that events will drive the region's international relations in the future and that the region must seize this opportunity to create new stabilising institutions.     

试论构建“东亚共同体”的思想文化基础——从历史启迪与未来追求的视角

创建共同合作、协同发展的“东亚共同体”,业已成为不可抗拒的发展趋势。历史事实证明:东亚地区是世界历史上最早“一体化”的区域;它既有成功的、进步的古代“东亚文化圈”,也有反动的、失败的近代“大东亚共荣圈”,还有设想中的“东亚共同体”。然而,现实中的“历史认识问题”,是直接关系到“东亚共同体”能否迅速建立的前提条件。为促进未来“东亚共同体”区域内的沟通和交流,需要在汉字的基础上创建共通文字,这不是复旧,而是与时俱进的创新。当人们思考构建“东亚共同体”时,在普遍关注经济协作的情况下,尤应重视思想文化观念的问题,因为东亚各国间的政治的、经济的、外交的问题,不能光靠政治的、经济的、外交的手段来解决,而确实需要从思想文化观念方面去寻求解决问题的办法。     

East Asia in a unipolar international order and Europe’s role in the region

This article attempts to explore the post-Cold War international system in which regional orders intermingle their influence. It pays special attention to regional conflicts in East Asia in the new era and what roles global powers could play to maintain regional stability. I will first examine the characteristics of the new global order after the end of the bipolarity. I will then focus on American foreign policy in the new international system in the context of its dealing with major global events that have strategic implications for its relations with other major global powers. As to discussions of regional orders, this article focuses on East Asia, where conflicts between states have not evaporated despite the relaxation of the global Cold War confrontation. What makes this area special is the involvements of many great powers and less-powerful nations that could somehow easily manipulate the seniors into the conflicts to their favour. While the regional order in East Asia is being shaped by the post- Cold War international order, the regions peace and conflicts will in turn significantly influence global order. Finally, I will argue that dealing with problems in East Asia should acquire involvements of powers that would give necessary momentum to the existing participants to solve conflicts by the means of multilateralism. The European Union (EU) is often forgotten for its role in contributing to world order, and the EU should be taken seriously by the powers in East Asia as a possible player in maintaining the regional peace. I conclude that both global and regional security depend on continuing US unipolarity, strengthened by the co-operation of the EU in the form of multilateralism. By the same token, US unilateralism without a EU counter-balancing it, only invites potential challengers, such as China, to threaten the USs preponderant position, thereby destabilising world peace.This article was supported by a research project (NSC-P3-2414-H-004-018) of the National Science Council, Taiwan, which is gratefully acknowledged.     

The Fog of Negotiation: What Negotiators Can Learn from Military Doctrine

On the surface, warfare and negotiation may seem to be polar opposites. The objective in war is to defeat the enemy. In negotiation, the goal is to find a solution that satisfies all the parties. Not surprisingly, little cross‐learning and exchange has occurred across the two domains. In spite of important differences, however, the dynamics of war and negotiation have much in common. Specifically, both involve the interaction of motivated agents with distinct interests, perceptions, and values (especially in high‐stakes contexts). As a result, robust strategy, creativity, and nimble tactics are essential both on the battlefield and at the bargaining table. Just as negotiation theory could be enriched by principles of maneuver warfare, military doctrine offers officers and soldiers a potentially useful foundation to better understand and manage the negotiation process, especially in complex, cross‐cultural contexts.     

东亚经济一体化的必要性与可能性

冷战结束以来,区域经济一体化的发展导致国家间竞争逐渐让位于区域组织间竞争,东亚经济的崛起使东亚具备了一体化的初始条件和实力.东亚经济一体化既有必要,亦有可能,建立东亚经济一体化已成为大势所趋.