中美关系新阶段中的战略“失语”与战略稳定探索

过去几年,中美关系从国际体系内的霸权国家与国际体系外的相对较弱国家之间的关系,演变为国际体系内的守成强国与崛起强国之间的关系。这种变化导致中美关系告别了过去四十余年的"接触—融入"战略框架。中美关系进入新阶段后,两国需要一个双方都可接受的、新的战略稳定框架,以确保中美关系的长期稳定。然而,由于种种原因,两国迄今尚未能形成可以为两国关系实践提供战略指导的新框架与新论述。美国方面出现了以亚太政策代替中国政策等问题;中国方面提出的"新型大国关系"概念也未能获得美方很好地理解与接受。因此,过去几年中美关系进入一个缺乏宏观战略共识指引的新时期。这是过去几年中美关系中的竞争面、消极面日益凸显的重要原因。让人鼓舞的是,中美两国领导人在危机管控、全球议题合作等领域,正在以逐案处理的方式,为两国摸索新的利益边界。这种探索或许能够导致中美两国形成新的稳定框架,其产生的"正能量"与中美结构性矛盾自然产生的"负能量"之间的"竞赛"将决定未来一段时间内中美关系的移动方向。不过,两国领导人的这种尝试未来也将面临美国政治周期变化等不确定因素的影响。     

起伏中求稳定,动荡中求发展

由于中美两国在社会制度、价值观念、台湾等问题上存在重大差异,两国关系一直时好时坏,在曲折中前进.要警惕美在对台政策上的"清晰化"倾向.但也应看到,不断发展的经贸关系、两国间广泛的交流与接触已成为中美关系进一步发展的重要基础和推动力.要进一步排除影响中美关系的障碍.     

如何认识当前与今后的中美关系

当前中美关系的发展存在着三大挑战,即中美战略互信严重缺乏,双方互动多限于功能性层面;美国霸权心态犹存,两国国际战略存在矛盾与冲突;美国冷战思维根深蒂固,"改造"中国的冲动难以消解。这三大挑战将会给两国关系的发展造成结构性障碍,但在战略意愿、沟通机制以及外部条件等方面的积极因素为两国关系的总体稳定提供了基础。鉴于奥巴马政府的政治特点以及中美两国政策重心内转,2016年的中美关系将基本保持现状。     

第三方因素与中美关系的逆社会化——以中国周边安全态势为例

2008年金融危机以来,中美关系下行趋势渐显。对此,国内外学者从体系结构压力、对外战略、国内政治以及意识形态等角度提出了诸多解释。然而,现实中中美关系日趋下行的原因却更为复杂。近年来频频发酵的钓鱼岛危机、南海争端以及朝核危机等第三方因素逐渐凸显,对中美关系的破坏作用不容忽视。为弥补既有解释的不足,作者将尝试从第三方视角构建一个替代性的逆社会化理论框架。这一理论认为,中美关系中的第三方可以通过冲突化、污名化与互信退化三个微观机制诱发中美关系的紧张局势。案例研究表明:日本挑起的钓鱼岛争端不仅诱发了中美关于东海防空识别区的冲突,而且加剧了中美两国在西太平洋地区的军事竞争。菲律宾则借黄岩岛危机,在国际上大肆丑化中国形象,其发起的南海仲裁案使得中美两国相互认知日趋负面。朝鲜近年来频繁进行核试验,更是加剧了中美两国在制裁朝鲜、部署"萨德"系统等问题上的战略互疑。对于第三方的逆社会化效应,中美双方均应高度警惕、精心管控。     

中美关系的现在与未来

建交40年来,中美关系经历了跌宕起伏的发展.21世纪以来,影响两国关系发展的主要因素不断发生变化,中美关系是否走向恶化、中美之间的战略互疑等热议问题也浮出水面.全面客观地评价当前中美关系,有利于为两国关系发展营造融洽的气氛和有利的环境,也有助于维持亚太地区的稳定与合作大局.通过创新思维,共同构建相互尊重、平等互信、合作共赢的新型大国关系模式,是中美唯一的正确抉择.     

简论福特政府的对华政策与中美关系

1974年8月,因为"水门事件"尼克松总统被迫辞职,继任的福特总统多次表示将继续推进中美关系向前发展,努力实现两国关系的正常化.尽管美国国务卿基辛格多次往返于华盛顿和北京之间,商讨两国之间悬而未决的问题,福特本人也于1975年12月来华访问,但是,由于受到诸多美国国内以及国际因素的制约,在福特任内,两国关系不仅没有能够实现正常化,而且始终面临着倒退的危险,处于一种颇为尴尬的境地.在另一方面,两国领导人也并没有失去耐心,而是努力保持两国关系向前发展的势头,等待机会,实现突破.     

中美关系中的经济因素

中美关系从两国建交后的一波三折逐渐演变成今天比较正常的国家关系,除了中国在两国关系的改善和发展上做出重要努力外,双方强劲的经贸合作带来的双赢也起到到了极其重要的作用。随着中国经济实力的提升,经济因素在中美关系中的分量和影响还将进一步增强。     

英国与阿根廷的南极关系考察（1942-1961）

在20世纪中期,英国和阿根廷由于南极领土主权问题引发了两国在南极地区的冲突。到了20世纪50年代末,两国在南极事务中的关系逐渐从冲突走向合作,并与其他国家共同签订了维护南极和平与稳定的《南极条约》。两国在南极冲突的主要原因是这一时期由于经济关系的削弱和地缘政治上的角逐所导致的两国关系的恶化。之后两国从冲突走向合作,总体上是两国政治关系的改善以及美国与苏联因素的影响,还在于只有相互合作才能最大限度地维护两国的利益。两国在南极事务中的关系对之后的马岛战争、北极问题都产生了很大影响,而对中国的南极政策也有一定启示作用。     

中美关系的复杂性、矛盾性和基本经验

本文从构成中美两国关系的要素:社会制度和意识形态、台湾问题、经贸问题、人文交流、地区问题、全球治理,分析了中美关系的复杂性和矛盾性,总结了处理两国关系的基本经验。笔者认为,中美两国关系的基本点在很长时间内可能都不会改变:一是由于两国利益的高度相关性,谁也离不开谁;二是美国认定中国是对美国全球地位的主要挑战,是其主要战略对手。鉴于第一个基本点,中美两国的互利共赢合作将继续下去;鉴于第二个基本点,中美两国的竞争和博弈还将增强并常态化,不时会有磕绊、颠簸、起伏,但经过相当长时间的竞争、合作、顺应、妥协,将产生两国互动的新模式,中美关系是可以避免"修昔底德陷阱"的。     

试析70年代以来美国对华关系中的经济因素

30年前,尼克松总统完成破冰之旅,为中美关系的发展揭开了历史性的一页.之后,两国关系虽有变化,但总体上是在曲折中前进.文章力求开掘影响中美关系的深层原因,以寻求两国关系中的平衡点;文章以经济因素在美国对华关系中的地位与作用为阐述的主线.     

柬埔寨：东盟国家中冉冉升起的新星——柬埔寨2007年回顾和2008年展望

2007年对柬埔寨第三届政府来说是本届执政的最后一年，也是关键的一年。这一年的形势比以往任何一年都好，政治稳定，社会安定，经济持续快速发展。执政的人民党，在4月举行的地方选举后，在国家政治中的主导地位得到进一步的确立。政府提出的发展经济的“四角战略”等各项政策获得顺利推行。桑兰西党取代奉辛比克党（简称奉党）成为第二大党后，柬埔寨两党政治局面初步形成。     

Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820–1992

Policymakers often trumpet the potential for third parties to stop the killing associated with civil wars, yet third parties as strategic actors also have incentives to encourage longer civil wars. We argue that in order to assess the influence of third parties on civil war duration, it is necessary to consider the interdependent nature of third party interventions as they are distributed across the set of civil war combatants. We also argue that it is important to consider the geopolitical context in which civil wars occur, rather than focusing solely on characteristics internal to these conflicts. To test our hypotheses about the impact of third parties and geopolitical factors on civil war duration, we rely on event history analysis and a sample of 152 civil wars for the period 1820–1992. We find empirical support for the idea that extremely long civil wars correspond to the equitable distribution of third party interventions—stalemates prolong wars. The analysis also indicates that separatist civil wars and ongoing civil wars in states proximate to the civil war state result in civil wars of longer duration. Finally, we find that when third parties raise the stakes of the conflict by engaging in the use of militarized force against the civil war state, the duration of these conflicts is reduced. In general, our analysis underscores the importance of modeling the interdependent and dynamic aspects of third party intervention as well as the world politics of civil wars when forecasting their duration and formulating policy.     

A Helping Hand? The Moderating Role of Leaders' Conflict Management Behavior on the Conflict–Stress Relationship of Employees

Interpersonal conflict between colleagues within organizations negatively affects employee well‐being (e.g., stress). It is unclear how leaders' third‐party conflict management behaviors influence the relationship between employee conflict and well‐being. In this study, we examine the effects of leaders' perceived conflict management behaviors on the relationship between relationship, task, and process conflicts and the conflict‐related stress (as a measure of well‐being) that employees experience. We tested our expectations using a survey of 145 employees of an insurance company in the Netherlands. The results confirmed our expectations that the perception that leaders engaged in third‐party forcing behavior and avoiding behavior amplified the effects of conflict on conflict‐related stress. Furthermore, we found that leaders' third‐party problem‐solving behavior had a buffering effect on the association between relationship conflict and conflict‐related stress. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War

Few studies consider how civil war onset can be influenced by third parties and by the belligerents’ perceptions of third party actions. I show that the American Civil War, a war largely ignored by civil war scholars, sheds insights into how anticipation of third party intervention influences the decision-making process within the target state and how the possibility of third party intervention can influence the onset and escalation of civil war. The American Civil War is an especially interesting case for exploring the role of third parties in civil war initiation since, unlike most cases considered by the existing civil war literature, the American Civil War is an instance of nonintervention: the third parties (the European powers in this case) mattered despite staying out of the conflict. Specifically, I argue that fear of foreign recognition (particularly by the British) played an underappreciated (if not the decisive) role in the earliest stages of the American Civil War by influencing Lincoln's decision to authorize the first major battle of the war at Manassas Junction, Virginia.     

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary unit: the long collapse

ABSTRACT

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG) fought one of the longest and bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history. In 1996, the URNG and the Government of Guatemala signed a Firm and Lasting Agreement ending the country’s civil war and initiating the URNG’s post-war life as a political party. After finishing third in its initial electoral competition, the URNG has since been unable to capture more than 4% of the vote, on its own or in coalition, leaving it a minor political party. What explains the poor electoral performance of the URNG as a political party? Based upon fieldwork, elite interviews, and analysis of electoral data, I argue that the URNG’s minor party performance was caused by both organizational and institutional factors.     

Help or Hindrance: Third Parties in The Indo-Pakistani Conflict

In cases of ethno-nationalist and other kinds of protracted conflict, third party intervention is crucial for settlement to occur, since conflicting actors are too mired in the histories of their grievances to move towards settlement themselves. This article examines five instances of hostility between India and Pakistan over the last five decades; two of these conflicts ended in settlement and the other three in war. The evidence presented in these instances suggests ways in which third party characteristics, strategies, and timing of intervention may influence final outcomes.     

A Conceptual Typology of Kin‐State Mediation

In this article, I argue that kin states can play major roles in international mediation processes involving their kin communities. Although kin states may be naturally biased toward their kin, kin states are sometimes actively involved in mediation processes and such involvement is even encouraged by third‐party mediators. In this study, I divide the various roles assumed by kin states in mediation into four main conceptual categories: promoter, quasi‐mediator, powerbroker, and enforcer. My analysis presumes that a kin state can use its close ties with its kin community to make third‐party mediation more successful. I support and illustrate this model using cases of kin‐state involvement in peace processes and examine both the benefits and complications that kin‐state mediation can entail. This study contributes to scholarship examining the effectiveness of biased mediators. I conclude that the role a kin state assumes in a mediation is often context‐dependent, but that third‐party mediators and the international community can use their leverage over kin states to improve the peace process.     

Destabilizing Effects of Terrorism on Party System Stability

In democracies with stable party systems, voters can more easily trace policy decisions from parties and representatives within the government to specific policy outcomes. Consequently, party system stability (PSS) has been reportedly linked to a variety of factors including economic conditions, democratic performance, political institutions, and socioeconomic cleavages. While informative, these lessons offer precious little insight into other factors that can destabilize a party system. In this work, we surmise that terrorist attacks have important implications for two commonly used measures of PSS. The results of a pooled, cross-sectional time series analysis confirm our hypothesis: deadly attacks proximate to elections destabilize party systems, even when controlling for multiple standard controls. In addition, the level of democratic consolidation within states also influences the degree that fatal terrorist attacks affect party system stability. These findings are based on terrorism data collected from the Global Terrorism Database and from PSS data compiled by the authors.     

Assessing the Television Campaign: The Impact of Party Election Broadcasting on Voters' Opinions in the 1997 British General Election

Although paid television and radio political advertising is banned in the United Kingdom, parties fielding sufficient candidates are entitled to free air time during election campaigns for a fixed number of party election broadcasts (PEBs). Over the years, parties have experimented with a variety of different PEB formats. But the impact of PEBs on voters is underresearched. This article therefore analyzes the influence of PEB viewing in the 1997 British General Election. Though a majority do not view PEBs, those who do are influenced by them, especially in terms of their evaluations of parties and their leaders: Other things being equal, viewers of a party's PEBs become more favorably disposed to the party and its leader than those who do not see the broadcast. Labour and Conservative PEBs have no impact on vote intentions, however. But viewers of Liberal Democrat broadcasts become more likely to support that party. We speculate that this reflects different background levels of media exposure for the major parties as compared to the third party.     

End Matter

Namibian elections offer useful insights for the analysis of electoral democracy in territories with histories of protracted and violent liberation struggles. The 1999 general elections, Namibia's third national polls, occurred in the aftermath of a secessionist uprising and the formation of a new opposition party with credible leaders. This article describes in detail both the campaigning and the administrative dimensions of the Namibian election. A relatively strong electoral administration could only partly offset the effects of a dominant political culture in which opponents are regarded as public enemies. Where the ruling party was historically strongest it was responsible for the most aggressive electioneering: competitive contests tended to generate more relaxed electioneering.