我国高速铁路对宏观经济的影响分析

运用宏观经济理论分析工具,对我国发展高速铁路进行了系统分析,认为:发展高速铁路可以扩展市场半径,提高市场效率,加速经济一体化进程;同时促进经济的短期增长和长期增长;可以带动我国科技创新与产业升级;可以增进社会福利;有利于提升我国经济动态效率;有利于实现我国经济社会可持续发展。     

最优资本有机构成与最优经济增长

资本有机构成理论是马克思经济学一个亟待发展的很重要的理论。资本有机构成是马克思经济学在宏观和微观方面运用研究的一个关键变量。文章研究资本有机构成在宏观经济中的运行机制,揭示其与一些重要的宏观经济变量的关系。研究发现,资本有机构成的变化决定了其他变量的变化。资本有机构成与经济增长不是简单的线性"互相关"关系。当资本有机构成很低时,它与利润率进而经济增长率"正相关",当它上升到一个"最优值"后才与利润率和经济增长率负相关。因此,要维持最优经济增长就必须在资本技术构成提高的前提下,保持最优资本的价值构成不变,资本主义生产方式中无法做到这点,但可以借助政府的宏观调控延缓危机发生;或者使经济周期的"波幅"缩小。     

中国改革开放以来经济开放理论的发展与新阶段的创新

自1978年实行改革开放以来，我国经济开放理论获得了历史性发展，特别是近十年来，更适应新形势变化而不断创新。回顾和总结这一段历史，有利于推动中国特色社会主义经济理论的发展，深化对外开放理论与实践的认识。     

湖北省宏观经济动态监测预警系统及其应用

<正> 我们对近十年全省宏观经济的运行情况进行了较长时间的探讨,初步提出了监测宏观经济运行状态的指标体系和报警临界点。现将监测预警系统简述如下。一、监测指标体系的选择科学地选择指标体系,是建立宏观经济动态监测预警系统的基础。我们从现行的统计核算体系出发,在借鉴和吸收国内外关于选择监测预警指标成果的基础上,根据综合性、灵敏性、时效性、系统性的基本原则,结合我省近十年经济发展的宏观情况,拟以投资为核心,以国民收入作为研究产出循环波动的基准,从资源、生产、消费、分配、效益、市场物价、银行信贷等相互关联的各个主要方面,选择了62个指标作为我省宏观经     

中国房地产信贷市场的经济学分析

随着中国房地产业的快速发展,房地产信贷需求显得越来越迫切,房地产信贷在各商业银行信贷资产中的比重已越来越大,逐渐成为商业银行信贷业务的一个重要分支。本论文从宏观经济和金融理论的研究角度出发,阐述了房地产信贷市场的经济主体,以及房地产信贷对开发商、消费者、银行及政府的经济作用。在我国利率非市场化的前提下,分析了我国近十年来房地产信贷市场供给曲线与需求曲线,提出了影响房地产信贷供给与需求的主要因素,显示了房地产信贷在国民经济和金融领域中的重要经济地位。     

台湾地区情报理论研究的现状与特点管窥——以“中央警察大学”硕士研究生入学考试试题为例

近十年来,台湾＂中央警察大学＂情报学硕士研究生入学考试试题的考察重点主要集中在以下几个领域：冷战后尤其是＂9.11＂事件以来的情报改革与情报转型问题、情报控制问题、情报基础理论、现实情报工作。通过对试题及其考察重点的分析,可以发现台湾地区情报理论研究有如下特点：注重引进与借鉴西方尤其是美国的情报理论及实践成果、注重情报控制与＂国家＂安全法制化问题研究、注重情报与非传统安全及国土安全等安全问题研究、注重情报理论研究和情报实践的结合与互动。     

近十年来邓小平发展思想研究述评

邓小平发展思想是邓小平理论的重要组成部分,也一直是学界研究邓小平理论的重点和热点。总结近十年来学界对邓小平发展思想的研究情况,深入挖掘和研究邓小平发展思想,对推动中国特色社会主义理论与实践的发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

2015 大变革 大预测

2014年12月11日,一年一度的中央经济工作会议闭幕。对于预测2015年经济形势而言,研读此次会议精神无疑是最重要的一件事情。会议总结2014年的经济工作成绩;应对当前国际国内经济情况的变化;制定宏观经济发展规划。这是判断当前经济形势,定调2015年宏观经济政策,必须认真解读的权威风向标。今年的关键词是"新常态"。新常态成为中国经济发展的大逻辑,这将是很长一段时间内中国经济工作的理论基础。     

我国宏观经济政策展望

2004年,在加强和改善宏观经济调控的背景下,中国经济保持了平稳快速发展,宏观调控效果明显。总结当前经济形势的变化,我们认为,2004年宏观经济政策的基本思路将在2005年延续下去,同时,随着经济运行环境的变化,宏观经济政策操作上市场化色彩更浓、动用经济手段更多,调控政策更加稳健,政策与体制改革的结合更加紧密。     

新世纪我国未成年抚养度演变历程及影响

近十年来我国未成年社会抚养度发生了明显的变化,本文首先对近十年来我国未成年抚养度的演变趋势进行了理论分析,而后从性别比例、社会福利、家庭结构及社会分配体系三个层面分析了这种演变所带来的一系列影响,并采用一种二项式回归方程对未来的未成年抚养度情况和拐点值进行相应预测,最后对全文进行总结和提出相关建议。     

Southeast Asia and cross‐strait relations: The policy of separation of politics and economics

During the periods of July‐August 1995 and mid‐March 1996, China initiated a series of missile tests and military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, and the mainland for many was considered responsible for the rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait. But, Southeast Asian countries held Taiwan responsible for stimulating the mainland's military actions because of the island's claim for independence. Why? There are three different theoretical arguments on this issue, i.e. those of political primacy, economic determinism, and the separation of politics and economics. This paper contends that the principle of separation of politics and economics is the policy that Southeast Asian countries pursue in developing their relations with the PRC and the ROC, i.e. maintaining official and full‐scale relations with the PRC, but keeping unofficial and economic links with Taiwan. Therefore, for Southeast Asian countries, the PRC's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait were a political and not an economic problem, and one between the mainland and Taiwan. This is the key factor in explaining attitudes in Southeast Asian nations toward the Taiwan Strait crisis.     

21世纪以来台湾服务业发展概况及其发展趋势

进入21世纪以来,台湾服务业增长缓慢,开始凸显劳动生产力不高、国际竞争力弱等问题,导致对总体经济成长和社会就业的贡献度偏低,严重制约着台湾经济的转型升级。究其根源,除服务业自身结构性因素外,主要受市场空间狭小和研发投入不足等影响。在台湾当局政策导向下,未来台湾服务业将进一步推进国际化、深化与大陆服务业合作,同时着力“服务业科技化”和“异业合作”以提高发展质量。     

台湾当局自由贸易协议实践的亚太转向及其前景

自20世纪90年代以来,为因应全球区域一体化的浪潮,台湾当局力推自由贸易协议（FTA）战略,但成效不佳。2008年马英九执政后,两岸关系在“九二共识”的基础上得以缓和并稳步发展,台湾参与区域经济一体化的问题被重新提上议事日程。当前,台湾当局的FTA战略目标逐渐从传统的中南美洲“友邦”逐渐转向亚太地区,从单纯的“政治驱动型”向“政治经济平衡型”特征转变。未来,台湾当局FTA实践的进展,并不单纯取决于台湾当局作为世界贸易组织成员的身份,更取决于两岸经济整合的深度和两岸政治互信的程度。台湾当局FTA实践的经验,对于未来参与TPP同样具有借鉴意义。     

Securing Economic Relations Across the Taiwan Straits: New challenges and opportunities

Cross-Taiwan Straits economic interaction is a political as well as an economic issue. General trends of economic interdependence and globalization that are weakening the role of the nation state should promote a focus of shared 'civilian governance' between Taiwan and mainland China. WTO entry will provide opportunities as well as challenges for cross-Strait economic relations. In anticipation of this dynamic, the new government in Taiwan is attempting to design a new national security web to guarantee Taiwan's 'economic security' in coping with Taiwan's increasing economic dependence on mainland China. As one key agent of globalization, economic cooperation in the urban areas on both sides of the Taiwan Strait may potentially improve relations between Taiwan and mainland China. As decentralization and privatization on mainland China proceed, major cities have developed closer interaction and systems of accountability with the civil society. From a prudent perspective, developing functional cooperation between Taiwan and mainland China at the urban level could be a first substantial step to confidence building between these two economies.     

The politics of greater China's integration into the global Info Tech (IT) supply chain

The most notable feature of the public ‘dialogue of the deaf’ taking place across the Strait separating Taiwan and China is its zero‐sum logic. This logic of one‐upmanship in political and security matters dictates that whatever benefits Taipei is detrimental to Beijing and vice versa. Commercial interaction between Taiwan and China, particularly in the broadly defined sector of information technology (IT), is arguably the more powerful driver of cross‐Strait interaction today. Two characteristics of this accelerating dynamic of commercial interaction across the Taiwan Strait are paramount: (1) its tight integration into a global IT supply chain; and (2) the extent of symbiosis by which all participants in this global supply chain depend on the worldwide vitality of this economic ecosystem. In interpreting what cross‐Strait economic integration in IT portends, political logic may be leading Taipei and Beijing along opposite paths to the same end‐point: the presumption that economic integration is undermining, and destabilizing, the cross‐Strait economic and political status quo. As a dominant player in global IT, the US has its own stake in a clear understanding of this globalization dynamic and in astutely maintaining its interests as the global IT supply chain continues to extend across the political fault‐line of the Taiwan Strait. Non‐partisan analysis of the logic of globalization suggests a different outcome for the cross‐Strait commercial dynamic than either Taipei or Beijing has publicly credited: its potential to mutually enhance economic prosperity and contribute long‐term to stabilizing cross‐Strait political interaction.     

20世纪50年代以来台湾经济体制市场化的历程、特点及其影响

在一个既定的理论框架下，本文考察了20世纪50年代以来台湾经济体制市场化的历程和特点，认为20世纪50年代以来台湾以自由化为主旨的体制市场化不仅锻造了微观市场主体，也为工业化的重大进展提供了市场制度保障，从而促使台湾经济快速成长并步入新兴工业化经济体行列。全球化和区域化背景下，经济体间的一体化安排成为微观市场主体经济活动的重要制度保障，而台湾在全球经济和区域经济一体化中的游离态势则无法实现这一组织功能，从而成为其经济困境形成的重要因素。台湾经济要走出困境，必须有效参与区域经济一体化。可行的路径是由国家主体授权或通过与国家主体先行构筑一体化进而参与到更大范围的一体化之中。     

Economic interdependence and political divergence: The emerging pattern of relations across the Taiwan Strait

Economic interactions between Taiwan and mainland China have grown at an astounding speed since the Taipei government began to relax restrictions on indirect trade with the mainland in the late 1980s. A growing flood of cross‐border investment and trade has created an economic interdependence. However, intensified economic exchanges have not spilled over into political recognition of the legitimacy to each other or even ameliorated hostility across the Taiwan Strait. Growing economic interdependence has been a function of political power and political choice. This paper examines the emerging pattern of the relations across the Taiwan Strait and attributes the discrepancy between economic and political relations to significant disparities across the Taiwan Strait, which has worked as both integrative and disintegrative forces.     

Emergence of the Greater China Circle Economies: Cooperation versus competition

The integration of the so-called greater China economies among Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong is one part of the global trend of regionalism. The significance of integration in terms of foreign trade and foreign direct investment demonstrates not only rapid growth but also diversity, ever since Mainland China pursued her open door policy of economic reform in 1979. For instance, the combined volume of Hong Kong and Taiwan accounted for as much as 74.1% of Mainland China's capital utilization in 1993, which in turn contributed to the rapid economic growth of Mainland China over the last two decades. The membership of Mainland China and Taiwan to the WTO, as expected by the end of 2001, will facilitate a more official arrangement of intergovernmental coordination within these Triangle Economies. However, the government of Taiwan will continue to evaluate the cross-strait relations in the context of the nation's overall political and economic security as long as the government of Mainland China does not renounce the use of military force against Taiwan.     

论宏观犯罪模型的构建

犯罪学发展至今,仍然以定性分析为主,定量研究为辅,主要原因是缺少分析犯罪系统的理论和方法,无法建立犯罪模型。文章首先在M arkov骨架过程的基础上,提出了K-G过程的基本概念并给出相应定理,然后从社会犯罪的实际问题出发,以建立犯罪控制系统为目的,建立了宏观犯罪模型———社会治安稳定性模型,并用K-G过程研究了此模型,给出概率分布。     

海峡经济区竞争性区域体系构建研究

竞争性区域是拥有独特“地方品质”的区域，以创新和知识作为其发展的催化剂，成为国家乃至全球最具发展活力的区域。竞争性区域的构建过程集中体现为提升区域竞争力的战略政策要点和与此相配套实施的多级治理措施的高效统一。从竞争性区域构建理论视角考察，海峡经济区作为两岸经济整合的独特区域，其基础设施网络连接性、产学研互动合作、产业集群培育、城市经济协同发展方面亟待推进，竞争性区域特质尚不发育。今后应从基础设施的协调与衔接、区域产业分工协作体系建立、厦金特区和福马特区创建、经济运行机制衔接、台湾海峡城市联盟缔结、开展以政府政策协调为中介的公私合营等方面着力推进，以构建海峡经济区竞争性区域配套体系，推动海峡经济区迅速崛起成为中国乃至世界新兴的竞争性区域。