推动孟中印缅国际能源大通道建设的战略与对策

引言中国、印度、孟加拉国和缅甸4国山水相连,区域涵盖面积1340万平方公里。该区域不仅自然资源丰富,经济互补性强,而且也是连接东亚、南亚和东南亚三大新兴市场的重要枢纽,其战略地位正在引起有关方面的关注。目前,随着     

第十一次孟中印缅地区合作论坛在孟加拉国召开

2013年2月23～24日,孟中印缅地区合作论坛第十一次会议在孟加拉国首都达卡召开。这次会议由孟加拉国政策对话中心主办。中国云南省外事办公室、印度中国研究所和缅甸交通部负责牵头组织本国代表参会。这次参会的孟加拉国代表主要来自政策对话中心;印度代表来自印度中国研究所、政策研     

缅甸的罗兴亚人问题与缅甸-孟加拉国关系

自20世纪70年代持续在缅甸若开邦境内发生穆斯林和佛教徒的冲突军政府镇压以来,许多的罗兴亚人难民被迫逃到孟加拉国及周边国家避难,最终造成了孟加拉国与缅甸边境之间的非传统安全危机,多年谈判未能解决的罗兴亚人难民问题已经成为缅甸与孟加拉国双边关系的一个关键障碍。罗兴亚人难民问题不局限于两国之间,已引起了国际社会的关注,成为一个跨国和东南亚跨区域甚至是全球的议题,需要缅甸和孟加拉国双边及国际社会的多边参与才能有效推动罗兴亚人难民问题的解决。罗兴亚人难民问题所处的地方是重大基础设施项目的关键地区,是中缅石油管道、公路、铁路桥梁的集中地,对中国利益及东南亚区域安全具有重要关涉。     

“孟中印缅”地区合作机制：推动因素与制约因素

"孟中印缅论坛"已走过五年的探索历程,现已开始步入实质性阶段.随着相关国家经贸合作水平的提高和对区域机制建设的共识日益增强,该机制已逐渐由学术主导的"二轨"层面向政府决策和可行性操作的"一轨"层面靠拢.中国云南在其中发挥着重要的作用,中国与孟加拉国的经贸和通道建设合作为该机制提供了动力,印度的该地区跨国经济合作的认知也在发生积极的转变,并且该机制业已同其它地区、次区域经济合作产生互动关联.尽管如此,该机制的运作和深化仍面对某些不可忽视的挑战.     

孟加拉湾地区反恐形势变化的特点、影响与对策

孟加拉湾是中国"一带一路"建设的重要地区。近年来,该地区反恐形势发生显著变化,孟加拉国、斯里兰卡和缅甸都面临不同类型的恐怖主义和极端主义威胁,已经成为影响地区安全和稳定的突出问题。形势变化对中国在该地区的利益也形成冲击,是孟中印缅走廊建设需要妥善应对的重大安全挑战。     

印度涉水国际争端及其战略影响

印度存在严重的水安全问题,牵涉到极为复杂的国际因素.印度北方有恒河、布拉马普特拉河等大江大河从中国、尼泊尔、不丹等流人印度境内,水资源对外依存度高达30.52％.印度每年的出境水流量更大,达到1.385万亿立方米,分别流入缅甸、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国等邻国.①印方与上述六国中的四国均有现实或潜在的水争端,仅与缅甸无大的分歧,与不丹保持了良好合作.印度水危机趋于恶化可能加剧已有争端,激活潜在争端,加剧地区动荡,需要持续关注.     

“中国-南盟：建立共同繁荣的伙伴关系”国际研讨会综述

2009年8月25至26日，由中国国际问题研究所、斯里兰卡班达拉奈克国际问题研究中心和四川大学南亚所联合举办的“中国-南盟：建立共同繁荣伙伴关系”国际研讨会在四川成都召开。与会成员包括中国、印度、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、不丹、马尔代夫、阿富汗等国的知名专家学者、智库成员和外交官。此次会议包括三大主题：南盟区域的新发展以及地区合作的意义；中国一南盟关系——机遇和挑战；促进中国一南盟合作的可行途径和方法。现将会议主要观点综述如下：     

印度东北地区少数民族的原始宗教

印度东北地区位于喜马拉雅山脉南坡,在中国、不丹、孟加拉国和缅甸之间,是一个山脉连绵、森林密茂的楔形地带。现在的印度东北地区,基本上是历史上的阿萨姆地区,目前分设阿萨姆、那加、特里普拉、曼尼普尔、梅加拉亚和米佐拉姆等邦。这个地区以民族众多而著称。多属藏缅语族,还有孟高棉语族和印度雅利安语族等。印度独立前,他们处于历史发展的各个阶段,社会形态、文化传统各具特色。其中,卡西、加洛和那加等族还保留了原始社会残余形态。卡西族长期处于母系社会,他们崇拜女祖先,按母     

谈谈中南半岛中西部区域文化

中南半岛的中西部包括缅甸、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨等国,湄公河流经该地区。自古以来,该区域受中国与印度文化的影响,不仅曾经形成了举世闻名的吴哥文化,更有上座部佛教和泼水节等具有区域特征的文化。加强中国与该区域的文化交流,既可促进我国与中南半岛国家之间的大湄公河次区域合作,也会有助于和谐区域的构建。     

印缅关系的发展及对中国的影响

印度与缅甸关系的发展,是印度开展周边外交的重要组成部分。冷战结束以来,印积极调整外交政策,在加强与东南亚国家关系的同时,尤其重视与缅甸的经济和军事合作。尽管受到国内反对派和西方国家的压力,印缅关系仍不断发展。印主要是出于获取经济利益、满足本国能源需求、维护其东北部地区稳定和经济发展的考虑,同时也有抵消中国在缅甸影响,与我进行能源竞争的意图。缅甸也乐于借此摆脱西方的制裁。这将使我与缅甸的经济合作受到一定影响,并使南海地区的安全局势复杂化。但从地区稳定与经济发展的大视角看,印缅关系的发展对我有弊亦有利,中印缅三国之间仍有合作的潜力。     

东南亚反恐难点和走向及云南国际大通道建设的对策

东南亚地区的恐怖袭击活动在最近几年异常活跃 ,恐怖爆炸与袭击此起彼伏 ,形势令人担忧。很显然 ,东南亚已经变成了恐怖分子活动的重灾区之一。日益猖獗的恐怖活动给东南亚地区的安全、稳定与发展造成了极大的威胁。在今后相当一段时间内本地区很可能仍是反恐的主要场所 ①,成为“反恐的第二阵线”(布什语)。伊斯兰教作为东南亚地区的一种外来宗教 ,其传入后大量地融入了当地的本土文化因素 ,因此一般认为东南亚的伊斯兰教是比较温和的。但是巴厘岛爆炸案等事件却使人们开始关注东南亚伊斯兰教极端主义势力。这里恐怖主义网络异常活跃 ,各种…     

新时期东南亚地区反恐斗争的难点及走势

"9·11"事件已过去近10年,其间世界各地的恐怖事件不断,东南亚地区也不例外,这对东南亚地区的安全、稳定与发展造成了极大的威胁。面对恐怖主义的威胁,东南亚各国政府日渐认识到合作反恐的重要性。     

Southeast Asia after 11 september

Southeast Asia has become the ‘second front’ in the global campaign against terrorism. Former concerns on the part of the United States about the human rights failings of regional regimes have been shelved in order to secure cooperation against supporters of Al-Qaeda, and United States troops have been directly committed to the field in the Philippines. Although there is confirmed evidence of international terrorist activity undertaken by small cells in Southeast Asia, this issue has also served to entrench illiberal regimes and trends. While the US may destroy terrorist groups its strategy may also further undermine democracy in the region, thus contributing to the political and social conditions that are conducive to the emergence of terrorism.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION OF TERRORISTS CONFLICTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

This article addresses the issue of transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia. The objective of the article is to investigate the structure of the transnational element of terrorism to determine their impact on conflict resolution attempts in the region. The transnational terrorist organization Jemaah Islamyiah will be used as a single case for the analysis. From this analysis, obstacles toward conflict resolution originating from the structure of transnational terrorism are identified, and the article provides suggestions on how to circumvent these impediments.     

反恐对印度尼西亚政治经济与对外关系的影响

“9·11”事件后,美国经过阿富汗战争,打垮了“基地”组织。然而国际恐怖活动并未减少,反而呈扩大和蔓延之势。在印尼和菲律宾相继发生恐怖爆炸案之后,东南亚国家成为恐怖活动的危险地区。“9·11”事件后美国展开的全球反恐怖主义行动对许多国家的国内政治经济与外交取向带来了深远的影响。被视为美国反恐行动第二战场的东南亚国家在这方面显然并不例外,其中对印度尼西亚的冲击尤为重大。本文主要分析反恐行动对印度尼西亚的对外关系与国内经济、政治的影响。—、印度尼西亚的反恐立场在反恐问题上,刚开始印度尼西亚政府的反恐措施不力,直…     

What Makes Terrorism Salient? Terrorist Strategies,Political Competition,and Public Opinion

This article analyzes the determinants of terrorism saliency in public opinion. It is usually assumed that after a terrorist attack, terrorism becomes automatically salient. However, this assumption is only true in those countries where terrorist attacks are exceptional events. In democracies that have suffered domestic terrorism for decades, the evolution of terrorism saliency does not only depend on the frequency or intensity of terrorist attacks. In this article it is claimed that the tactics carried out by terrorist groups (the type of victim, especially) and the dynamics of political competition (especially the ideology of the incumbent) are also factors that explain the evolution of terrorism saliency. The article also analyzes how these two factors interact with citizens’ predispositions to explain variation in their reactions to terrorist threat. The empirical test relies on a novel database from monthly public opinion surveys in Spain from 1993 to 2012.     

A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Psychological Process in the Development of the Terrorist

A conceptual framework is presented for addressing psychological issues in the development of the terrorist. In particular, the authors suggest that viewing terrorism as a process may lead not only to better conceptual development in analyses of the terrorist, but may also lead to the development of more practical and efficient counterterrorism initiatives. Additionally, viewing terrorism in this way may finally lead to the formation of a clear and unambiguous position for psychology within an interdisciplinary approach to analyses of both terrorism and the terrorist.     

《东盟反恐公约》签署以来东南亚反恐形势分析

2007年1月，东盟各国领导人在新加坡共同签署《东盟反恐公约》，决定简化司法调查及恐怖嫌犯引渡程序，并允许东盟各国执法机关和特工部门在该组织成员国境内实施反恐行动。《东盟反恐公约》签署以来，在有关各方的重拳打击下，东南亚地区反恐合作取得明显进展，恐怖袭击事件有所减少，多个国家成功挫败多起重大恐怖袭击图谋，许多恐怖组织接连遭到重创，地区安全局势逐渐恢复稳定；但是，从内外环境看，东南亚恐怖主义的根源没有彻底铲除，     

Terror of the talk: a new framework for countering terrorism within the institutionalisation of the terrorism industry

The “terrorism industry” that has been constructed by the war on terror has become institutionalised in the past decade, contributing in part to a significant increase in the overall public perception of terrorism and a dilution in meaning of the term “terrorist.” A linear regression analysis of the relationship of poll data collected from American citizens and frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks shows that this increased awareness has occurred despite the fact that terrorist attacks on American soil have decreased over the past decade. Considering the often-stated purpose of terrorists is to inspire fear, a central goal of the industry and the government should be to diminish these effects. However, the frequent and offhand use of the term “terrorist” fails to contextualise and counter the varied dispositions and motivations of terrorists and other non-state actors. To reduce public worry while working within the boundaries of the institutionalised terrorism industry, the study of terrorism should be conducted, and counterterrorist policies designed, using a new interdisciplinary framework that would allow the terrorism industry and the government to move beyond the binary designation of “terrorist” and “non-terrorist” to a greater spectrum of classification, from terrorists and violent non-state actors, to guerrillas, insurgents or criminals. A more nuanced framework could reduce public fear of terrorism and increase the effectiveness of counterterrorist policies.     

Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism

Does more representative government improve states' ability to fight domestic terrorism? In prior work, democracies are seen as more susceptible to terrorism because their respect for human rights prevents them from fully eliminating terrorist groups. However, such extrajudicial aggression could also alienate large portions of the population and create the ideal conditions for an insurgency. I argue that since terrorism is the lowest-capacity form of political violence, it is natural that states that do best at deterring political violence experience the most terrorism. While representative democracies should see terrorist groups initiate spells of attacks at a greater frequency, full political representation should also galvanize major political actors to unite and eliminate terrorist threats. I test this assertion through statistical models that treat the process of terrorist group initiation and its duration and intensity separately. Results not only show that less consolidated democracies and autocracies experience longer and more intense terrorist campaigns, but that, in support of the theory's mechanisms, groups are more likely to shift to terrorism from insurgency when their political base gains more political representation. The results call the division among research programs of various political violence types into question.