泰国政党格局的转型与泰爱泰党的亲民务实路线

2005年选举后,泰国的政党格局已基本完成了从多党林立向一党独大的转型.本文认为,曾一度活跃在泰国政坛上的众多中小型政党,之所以普遍存在政党中期衰退现象,其问题在于过分依赖庇护制关系而忽视了选民基础的建设;而泰爱泰党的迅速崛起,缘于其贯彻落实了重点争取中下层选民的亲民务实路线,从而发展并巩固了选民基础,摆脱了庇护制政党的发展困境.     

枢密院在泰国政治体系中的作用:"平行国家"的视角

作为泰国政治制度的重要组成部分,枢密院在泰国政治中的作用深刻反映了国家建设与民主政治之间的关系.作为朱拉隆功改革的成果,枢密院有助于君主加强集权,从而推动泰国的国家建设.泰国民主政治进程启动后,经过普密蓬国王及前枢密院主席炳· 廷素拉暖数十年的经营,枢密院逐渐成为国王汇聚政治资源的场所.国王通过枢密院成员的社会网络缔造了其与军队、司法机构的政治联盟,形成与民选政府相对的"平行国家",但民选的他信或亲他信政府凭借选票所代表的民意支持,冲击了"平行国家"相对于民选政府所具有的权力优势.作为"平行国家"的枢纽,枢密院通过传递信号、为政变背书及支持非民选政府组建等方式来维护"平行国家"的权威及利益.     

试析泰国社会运动和政治不稳定的根源

自2005年以来,泰国政治风波不断,社会运动此起彼伏.无论是他信派还是反他信派势力执政,政府都面临着来自民间力量的强大压力.本文对社会运动的概念作了初步探讨,并且确定了泰国半自主、半宪政的国家类型.在此基础上,文章从政治形态、经济背景、文化传统三个分析维度考察近三年来泰国社会运动多发和政治秩序不稳定的深层根源.     

关于泰国司法化的诸种不同观念

本文主要研究2006—2014年间泰国司法化的政治问题,并审视此极端争议期间司法被卷入政治的诸种形式。本文从2006年国王的两次重要演讲以及知名学者、社会批评家提拉育·汶密的诠释切入,细究几项具有持久政治影响的关键司法判决,包括2006年的大选无效案、2007年的取缔泰爱泰党案、2008年和2014年的亲他信·西那瓦的沙马·顺达卫和英拉·西那瓦两位总理被免案、2008年他信受到数项腐败指控并被判罪名成立,以及2010年的司法扣押他信资产案等。本文提出以下几个问题:司法化必定意味着保守主义者千方百计要剥夺从政者的权力并破坏选举政治吗?法官们是为泰国社会工作还是同某些既得利益集团结盟?在泰国语境下,司法能动性越强,是否就越能推进社会与政治领域的进步?本文认为,泰国的"司法化"是一个复杂的社会现象,对不同的法庭在不同的情况下以及不同的时间做出的判决,都必须仔细斟酌,辨明其各自所起的作用。     

泰国对华友好合作政策的动力与前景

泰中关系自两国建交以来一直发展平稳.近年来随着中国的和平崛起,泰国他信政府出于国家利益的考虑,积极推行对华友好合作政策,两国关系呈现加速发展的势头.本文从国家利益层面分别从经济、政治和安全的角度分析了泰国推行对华友好合作政策的动力,并对泰国对华政策的前景做了评估.     

21世纪初泰国军人集团政治回归的路径、动因与前景

21世纪初,泰国军方在国家发展模式变革过程中先后两次发动政变,重返权力核心.本文认为,促成泰国军人集团政治回归的主要动因在于既得利益集团的“反他信”共识,保守阵营复兴传统政治秩序的需要,以及社会民众对安定、和谐与发展的诉求.军人集团掌权后,通过创新制度安排、重塑传统意识形态、压制反对力量等方式,试图恢复传统政治秩序下的寡头权力结构.从目前看,泰国政治前景将在很大程度上取决于经济复苏进程.除非巴育政府能利用外部资源有效破解存量改革难题,否则新一轮的政治冲突与权力博弈很可能再次发生.     

泰国政治发展的社会学分析--结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

1932年以来,泰国社会结构的变化为人们理解其政治发展提供了一个很好的线索.长时间的以小农主导地位、以保护人-被保护人关系为主要特征的社会结构为泰国军人统治提供了基础.而工商集团的逐渐崛起及其对权利和政治参与的要求,消解了军人专制统治的基础,加大了军人统治的成本,推动着军人统治逐渐放松对社会的控制,成为泰国民主政治发展的一个重要动力.而泰国精英对民主价值的选择和坚定追求则成为泰国社会结构变化推动民主政治发展的转换枢纽,直接推动了泰国民主政治的发展.     

泰国民主政治的怪圈

泰国实行宪政以来经历了多次军人政权和民选政权的交替,形成了政治循环的怪圈,而且每个周期的更替多伴随着暴力冲突和政治动乱.近两年来,泰国政治进入了新一轮循环周期,政治动荡更是此起彼伏.本文重点回顾了2008年的政治危机,分析了危机的根源,并对泰国政治制度发展前景作出预测.     

再论泰国的社会结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

泰国独特的社会意识结构决定了泰国政治发展的特色.泰国独特的社会意识结构包括主-仆关系结构与德行信仰两个方面,两个方面的共同特点是强烈的物质化倾向,这一点为理解泰国政坛的频繁变换提供了一个很好的线索,也提供了预期泰国政治发展的一个思路.     

泰国2010年政治、经济和外交形势

2010年泰国政治、经济和外交形势都有较大程度改善。政治上,政府成功解决了3月至5月的国内政治危机,完成宪法修订,政府威信逐步提高;经济上,克服了政局动荡和自然灾害的消极影响,实现强劲复苏,全年GDP增速达到7.8%,创15年来最快年度经济增速;外交上,进一步深化与中国等大国的双边关系,但与柬埔寨的关系仍未得到彻底改善。     

象谚语与泰人的女性崇拜——从中国南方的象耕古风说开去

中国南方在唐代仍保持象耕这种落后的农业耕作方式.泰人没有象耕的记载,但象在先民落后的生产生活中占据重要位置,反映在语言中就是象谚语的创造和沿用,从中可以透视出被人们淡忘的泰民族女权文化史及其发展变迁.     

诗琳通-中泰人民的友好使者

中泰友好关系源远流长,两国人民之间有亲戚般的深厚友谊.自1975年建交以来,中泰两国传统友好关系得到了全面发展.中泰关系堪称不同社会制度国家睦邻友好和互利合作的典范.诗琳通公主是中国人民熟悉的老朋友,23年里18次访华,走遍了神州大地.由于公主殿下对中国的历史、语言、文化具有浓厚的兴趣和较深的造诣,先后出版了十几部关于中国的著作,并翻译了大量的中国诗词和小说,为促进中国语言和文化在泰国的传播发挥了不可替代的作用,为促进中泰两国人民的相互了解和传统友谊作出了重要贡献,是一位杰出的中泰友好使者.在泰国王室的高度重视和亲自推动下,手足情深的中泰传统友谊和友好合作关系在21世纪一定会有更美好的前景,并将永远发扬光大,世代相传.     

The 2014 Thai Coup and Some Roots of Authoritarianism

ABSTRACT

Thailand is the only country currently ruled by a coup-installed military government. The 2014 coup aimed not only to abolish the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra but also to shift Thailand’s politics in an authoritarian direction. While the army authored the coup, the professional and official elite played a prominent role in engineering the coup and shaping political reforms. This article examines some historical antecedents of this authoritarian turn, first in the broad trends of Thailand’s modern political history, and second in the emergence and political evolution of the Bangkok middle class.     

The Unruly Past: History and Historiography of the 1932 Thai Revolution

ABSTRACT

The monarchy and the country’s military dominate discussions of Thai political history. The country’s democratic history meanwhile is much less well known. To many people, historiography – the history of the writing of history – is a dull affair that only concerns academics. But the changing representations of the origins of democracy in the 1932 revolution that ended the absolute monarchy show the politics of history as a continuous problem that still shapes Thai society. The interpretations have been bound to the bitter partisanship that has accompanied a history of political instability. This article examines the changing interpretations of 1932 in their historical contexts and demonstrates the central antagonism towards the ideal of popular sovereignty, despite its long history in the country, that is still held by the military and monarchic elite.     

Introduction: Understanding Thailand’s Politics

ABSTRACT

Thailand’s politics from the mid-2000s has seen considerable conflict and contestation, with seven prime ministers, two military coups, and scores of deaths from political violence. This article, as well as introducing the eight articles in the Special Issue, examines various aspects of this tumultuous period and the authoritarian turn in Thai politics. It does this by examining some of the theoretical and conceptual analysis of Thailand's politics and critiquing the basic assumptions underlying the modernisation and hybrid regimes perspectives that have tended to dominate debates on democratisation. While the concepts of bureaucratic polity and network monarchy shed light on important political actors in Thailand, they have not grappled with the persistence of authoritarianism. In theoretical terms, the article suggests that it is necessary to understand historically specific capitalist development as well as the social underpinnings that establish authoritarian trajectories and reinforce the tenacity of authoritarianism.     

中泰关系近况与泰国社会厌华情绪

中泰战略伙伴关系发展良好,这表现在双边政治、经济、文化关系的迅速发展上。但是,近几年来,在"一带一路"的大背景下,随着到泰国的中国游客和中资企业的不断增加,泰国社会舆论中出现了一股厌华情绪。本文将分析这种情绪的表现和产生这种情绪的根源,并向中泰双方决策者提出建议。     

From tragedy to comedy: Political reform in Thailand

Thailand's democracy has been profoundly influenced by mass struggle and tragic bloodshed. The political freedom now exercised by Thai citizens ia a direct result of continuous mass struggle against dictatorship, the high points of which were the 14th October 1973 and the May 1992 popular uprisings. Yet, at the same time, this freedom has also had its limits defined by the brutal crushing of Thailand's socialist movement on the 6th October 1976. This has meant that the present day parliamentary system is devoid of any element of class politics. It is this, more than anything else, which is responsible for the corruption and vote-buying in the electoral system. Recent attempts at political reform, culminating in the drafting of the 1997 Constitution, results from the work of a coalition between two separate and conflicting class factions in Thai society. On the one hand, “the People's Organisations” (N.G.O.s, campaigns for democracy, peasant and labour groups) demanded more rights and participation in decision-making. On the other hand, “the modernist liberal wing of the ruling elite” wished to see more efficient and stable government. The contradictions between these two political currents can be seen throughout the reform process and in Thai politics today. Attempts to cleanse Thai politics using a reformed Constitution, new election laws and newly established “independent bodies,” such as the Election Commission and Constitutional Court, are unlikely to succeed, since they fail to address the real basis of money politics in Thailand and rely on a narrow structuralist approach. A more realistic route to political reform would rely on the mobilisation of social groups on a class basis. Only when such groups organise to push for more social equality and justice inside and outside the confines of the present structures can there be true progress.     

亚洲金融危机以来泰国的金融部门改革

亚洲金融危机后,泰国政府和中央银行在1997年至2001年间对金融部门进行了大规模重组,通过维持市场信心、关停大批金融机构、推动企业债务重组、提高监管标准等措施,使金融部门重新走上正轨.2002年以后,泰国政府和中央银行继续强化以风险管理为中心的监管,通过实施金融系统整体规划、新金融机构法、国际会计准则、新巴塞尔资本协议、存款保险制度和信用局制度等,强化金融部门抗风险能力.泰国金融部门改革取得一定成效,也存在一些不足,其政策措施对应对目前全球性金融危机,具有一定的借鉴意义.     

Thai social movements and the anti-ADB campaign

This article examines the desacralisation of royal charisma in contemporary Thailand. Over the past few years an underground discourse has emerged among critics of royal ideology and supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that directly confronts the power of the monarchy. The images, metaphors and linguistic devices used in the process are difficult to study because they rarely appear in public. This article focuses on an unprecedented demonstration of rage against the monarchy on September 19, 2010, when red-shirted demonstrators painted anti-royal graffiti on a construction hoarding at Ratchaprasong intersection in downtown Bangkok. In analysing the Thai political crisis as a battle of different charismatic groups, the article will present the September 19 event as the first open strike against the sacred charisma of the Thai monarchy. This charisma has hitherto been protected by royalists from all walks of life who were “working towards the monarchy.” With their attacks on the monarchy the red-shirts were challenging a legitimacy-conferring system which had benefited wide sections of the Bangkok populace in the past. At the same time, a competing charismatic movement has emerged around Thaksin, who himself has to take into account the charisma he conferred upon his followers.     

Reign-seeking and the Rise of the Unelected in Thailand

ABSTRACT

This article develops the concept of “reign-seeking” to capture the unprecedented collective action of the Thai professional and official elite prior to the 2014 military coup and the establishment of a military regime. It argues that this phenomenon reflects broad and deep political dynamics, for which the dominant scholarship on authoritarianism and Thai politics cannot adequately explain. The changing incentives of these supposedly non-partisan actors are interwoven with neo-liberal governance reform driven by a desire for depoliticisation and the minimisation of rent-seeking. This idea has been rationalised in Thailand since the promulgation of the 1997 Constitution resulting in the rise of technocratic and judicial bodies designed to discipline elected politicians and political parties. However, such institutional reconfigurations have consolidated the incentive for people considering themselves to be prospective candidates to “reign” in these organisations. As evident in the 2014 coup, these unconventional political actors – academics, doctors and civil society leaders – made collective efforts to topple the elected government in exchange for gaining selection into the wide range of unelected bodies. Governance reform in Thailand has hitherto reinforced the status quo, although the article further argues that reign-seekers should be seen as contingent, rather than consistent, authoritarians.