The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

The relative validity of psychopathy versus risk/needs‐based assessments in the prediction of adolescent offending behaviour

Purpose . The predictive validity of the psychopathy checklist‐youth version (PCL:YV) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for juvenile offenders were compared to examine whether a broad needs–risk tool predicted violence better than a focused individual assessment of psychopathy. Methods . 94 adolescents from residential and secure units were interviewed and assessed using the PCL:YV and YLS/CMI. Total scores were retrospectively applied to staff‐recorded incidents of violence, total number of charges and convictions and formally recorded assaults. The predictive accuracy of each tool was assessed using correlational and receiver operator characteristic analyses. Results . The PCL:YV was a better predictor of staff‐recorded violence than the YLS/CMI; both instruments were similar in their ability to predict total number of charges and convictions and assaults. When subdivided by gender, the correlations for predicting staff recorded violence in male participants were significantly higher than for female participants for both test instruments. Both instruments were broadly equivalent in their association with assaults and charges and convictions by gender. Conclusion . The PCL:YV is a better predictor of recorded violence than the YLS/CMI, but for charges and convictions and assaults, the YLS/CMI and PCL:YV were comparable for UK adolescent offenders. When recalculated to exclude the likelihood of predictor–criterion overlap, the results were the same. These findings are discussed in relation to the value of using risk–needs assessment instruments as compared with scales with a more psychopathological and personality focus.     

Predicting institutional misconduct using the Youth Level of Service/ Case Management Inventory

Offender assessment in corrections has advanced considerably over the last several decades. Currently, it is not uncommon to find correctional professionals using any number of objective standardized assessment instruments. While many of these instruments possess face validity as well as statistical predictive validity, more work is needed to test classification protocol on new populations, and in various correctional environments. The current paper investigates the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) within an institutional setting. Specifically, the composite score rendered from the YLS/CMI is used to predict institutional misconduct. The YLS/ CMI was found to effectively differentiate between two levels of offender risk/ need, and was significantly related to outcome using several different statistical techniques.     

Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy.     

Short and long-term prediction of recidivism using the youth level of service/case management inventory in a sample of serious young offenders

The present investigation examined the predictive accuracy of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Canadian sample of 167 youths (93 males, 74 females) charged with serious offenses who received psychological services from a community mental health outpatient clinic. Youths were followed for an average of 7 years in the community, and predictive accuracy was examined for several recidivism outcomes as a function of gender, ethnicity, and developmental age group. YLS/CMI total scores significantly predicted all recidivism categories in the overall sample (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.77) although the instrument as a whole, and its criminogenic needs, demonstrated somewhat stronger and more consistent predictive accuracy for youth outcomes. The YLS/CMI also demonstrated significant predictive accuracy within demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the use of risk-need assessment tools in providing clinical assessment, treatment, and case management services to diverse young offender groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Disproportionate minority contact in the juvenile justice system: An investigation of ethnic disparity in program referral at disposition

Historically, minority youth have experienced harsher punishments and more negative outcomes than White youth even when risk assessment is used. The current study investigated the role of ethnicity in an understudied dispositional decision–program referral–and the outcomes associated with said referral using a sample of juvenile offenders (N = 2,678). The study used the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) to determine (1) if ethnicity predicted program referral when accounting for risk assessment and (2) if program referral predicted recidivism. Results indicated that ethnicity predicted program referral, and program referral predicted recidivism. Future directions for Disproportionate Minority Contact (DMC) research and implications for court officials are discussed.     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Invariance of Measures of Prevention Program Effectiveness: A Replication

Recent literature has suggested that measures of risk and protective factorsfor delinquency and substance use are not equally reliable or valid acrossgender and ethnic groups and has recommended differentiated programming andculturally specific evaluation methods. Three data sets containing up tofive ethnic groups were used to determine the degree to which risk andprotective factors are equally reliable and valid predictors of drug use anddelinquency across gender and ethnic groups. Congeneric measurement modelsand structural equation models were evaluated to determine if the factorstructures for these measures and their covariances with measures of druguse and delinquency were equivalent across gender and ethnic groups. Half ofthe risk and protective factors included in this analysis were found to beequally reliable across gender and ethnic groups. When controlling forreliability differences, all of the risk and protective factors were foundto predict both drug use and delinquncy for all gender and ethnic groups. Interms of the magnitude of these associations, no substantive differenceswere found in the validity of risk and protective factors for drug use anddelinquency. Differences in the validity of risk and protective factors weremore prevalent for delinquency than for drug use. However, all differenceswere substantively trivial. We conclude that measures of prevention programeffectiveness are invariant across gender and ethnic groups.     

In the eye of the beholder? An examination of the inter-rater reliability of the LSI-R and YLS/CMI in a correctional agency

PurposeTo examine the inter-rater reliability of two risk assessment tools: The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI).MethodsTwo identical experiments are reported. For both studies, a random sample of 10 offenders were interviewed and videotaped with each tool (totaling 20 offenders). The tapes were then shown to a random selection of 20 raters (for a total of 40 raters) employed at a state agency. The fully-crossed design allowed each of the raters to rate the each of the cases, resulting in 200 total risk score observations for each tool. Inter-rater reliability analyses were then conducted.ResultsThe LSI-R demonstrated adequate to fair reliability, with certain domains showing lower reliability. Overall, the LSI-R had an ICC of .65. The YLS/CMI demonstrated higher reliability (ICC of .78). In addition, for the LSI-R study, comparisons were made between staff raters who work in a facility versus those in the community (e.g., probation officers). For the YLS/CMI study, comparisons were made between incarcerated offenders versus probationers. Neither comparison yielded consistent differences.ConclusionsThe YLS/CMI is generally reliable. The LSI-R showed less reliability. However, each study showed certain domains with less than ideal reliability.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

Intimate Partner Violence among Asian Americans: Risk Factor Differences across Ethnic Subgroups

A limited number of studies have been conducted on intimate partner violence (IPV) among Asian Americans. This study aims to fill this gap by examining risk factors for IPV and ethnic differences within Asian American subgroups. Logistic regression analyses were conducted, using data from the National Latino and Asian American Study (NLAAS). This study found that while prevalence rates of IPV varied across ethnic groups, the differences disappeared when controlling for demographic, interpersonal, and sociocultural variables. The study findings also showed that risk for IPV was higher for US-born Asian Americans, and that perceived discrimination increased the risk.     

Exploring the validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised with Native American offenders

The use of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is an increasingly important part of the correctional landscape. Actuarial tools ideally will provide a valid, dynamic assessment of an offender's overall risk/need level, and will identify their most prevalent criminogenic needs. What results is typically a number or score that can be used to assign an offender to a risk level that is associated with an assumed likelihood of recidivism. Testing the predictive validity of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is of paramount concern, particularly when they are utilized with new (and under-researched) populations. The current study assessed the predictive validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised using a sample of Native American and White offenders in a northern midwestern state. Results showed the instrument to have modest predictive validity utilizing the entire sample of offenders, with varying results for subsequent subgroups.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.     

A Case Management Instrument for Use in Juvenile Justice Systems

The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is a standardized instrument designed to assist juvenile justice system personnel in assessing risk and needs in their clients and in case planning. The measure is presented as an alternative to the unstructured informal assessments that so often guide decisions in these systems. It is relevant to all phases of the judicial process, including decisions regarding pretrial detention, transfers and waivers, preadjudicatory diversion, and sentencing. It is particularly relevant to case planning in community and institutional settings. The instrument is described, issues in application discussed, and the available psychometric information reviewed.     

Predicting outcome with the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: The importance of implementation integrity

Correctional agencies face increasing pressure to provide more services for increasing caseloads with fewer resources. The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) is a risk/need assessment instrument that was designed to assist correctional agencies in classifying offenders based upon risk of re-offending, thereby allowing agencies to assign appropriate levels of risk/need and develop intervention/case-plans accordingly. Although predictive validity of the LSI-R has been demonstrated, very little attention has been paid to the effect that staff training and agency experience have on the validity of this comprehensive, dynamic risk/need assessment tool. The use of formalized training and agency experience were found to be important factors that may determine the validity of the risk/need scores that are gleaned from the LSI-R assessment process.     

SELF-REPORTED DELINQUENCY AND A COMBINED DELINQUENCY SERIOUSNESS SCALE BASED ON BOYS,MOTHERS, AND TEACHERS: CONCURRENT AND PREDICTIVE VALIDITY FOR AFRICAN-AMERICANS AND CAUCASIANS*

The Pittsburgh Youth Study is a prospective longitudinal survey of three samples of Pittsburgh boys (each containing about 500 boys) initially studied in first, fourth, and seventh grades. The first two data collection waves yielded self-reported delinquency and combined delinquency seriousness scores (the combined scores based on information from boy, mother, and teacher) for the middle sample (up to an average age of 10.7 years) and oldest sample (up to an average age of 13.9 years). These scores were compared with records of petitions to the Allegheny County Juvenile Court for delinquency offenses before and up to six years after the assessments. The area under the ROC curve was used as a measure of validity. Concurrent validity was higher than predictive validity. The combined scale had similar concurrent validity but greater predictive validity than the self-report scale, and the combined scale also identified a greater number of boys as serious delinquents. Concurrent validity for admitting offenses was higher for Caucasians, but concurrent validity for admitting arrests was higher for African-Americans. There were no consistent ethnic differences in predictive validity. There was an increase in predictive validity, for both African-Americans and Caucasians, by combining self-report data with information from other sources. Afrer controlling for delinquency measures, African-Americans were more likely than Caucasians to be petitioned in the future, but not in the past. In this research, ethnic differences in official delinquency were partly attributable to ethnic differences in delinquent behavior and were not attributable to differential ethnic attrition or differential ethnic validity of measures of delinquent behavior.     

Violence risk and gang affiliation in youth offenders: a recidivism study

Abstract

Youth gangs are ubiquitous around the world and have been problematic for the social and criminal justice agencies. Despite widespread public concern, there has been relatively scarce empirical scrutiny of youth gangs internationally and little outside of America and Europe. In particular, the activities of youth gangs, the function of gang membership, the criminogenic needs of gang-affiliated youth, and the risk of criminal recidivism for gang-affiliated youth remain unclear. Against this background, this study explored the sociodemographic characteristics, risk and rate of criminal recidivism in a cohort of 165 male youth offenders in Singapore, of which 58 were gang-affiliated. Multivariate analyses revealed that gang-affiliated youth offenders were significantly more likely to have histories of substance use, weapon use and violence than nongang-affiliated youth offenders. Gang-affiliated offenders also scored higher on measures of risk for recidivism (SAVRY and YLS/CMI), and engaged in violent and other criminal behaviors more frequently during follow-up. These differences indicate a significant relationship between gang affiliation and criminal recidivism in youth offenders. Furthermore, these findings have important clinical and policy implications, indicating an increased requirement for additional and more intensive assessment and tailored interventions for gang-affiliated youth offenders.     

A comparison of bail amounts for hispanics, whites, and african americans: A single county analysis

Using 1996 data on defendants accused of felony offenses derived from a district court in a Midwestern jurisdiction, the authors employ bivariate and multivariate analyses to examine for significant differences between Hispanics and other racial and ethnic groups in the dependent variable, bail amount set by judge. To predict differences in the bail amount set by judges for Hispanic and other defendants, the multiple regression controls for two independent “legal” variables, prior arrest and seriousness of the instant offense, and for the “extra-legal” variables of age, gender, type of attorney, residency, and race. Our research shows that Hispanics receive higher bail amounts than White or African Americans; leading the authors to cast doubt on the tenets of “legal theory” which has gained attention as a model for explaining why members of racial or ethnic minorities receive harsher treatment at various stages of the criminal and juvenile justice system.     

Why are some ethnic groups more violent than others? The role of friendship network's ethnic composition

Ethnic differences in violent behavior can be found in official crime statistics, as well as in surveys on juvenile delinquency. To explain these differences, research mainly focuses on factors like parental violence, violence legitimizing norms of masculinity, or socio-economic status. Little research has examined the role of friendship network's ethnic composition on ethnic differences in violent behavior, although different sociological and criminological theories suggest that the composition of friendship networks can play an important role for attitudes and behavior of its members. Using data of a survey conducted in 2006 among all ninth-grade pupils in Hanover (Germany), we investigated the influence of friendship network's ethnic composition on violent behavior in general, and on ethnic differences in violent behavior in particular. Due to the specific sampling procedure, it was also possible to look for neighborhood effects both on (ethnic differences in) juvenile delinquency and friendship network composition. Findings indicate that there are significant differences in the network composition across the ethnic groups. After controlling for these network characteristics, ethnic differences in violent behavior disappeared. Furthermore, the results show that the friendship network's ethnic composition also depends on community characteristics.     

Measurement Properties of the Communities That Care<Superscript>®</Superscript> Youth Survey Across Demographic Groups

Prevention science has produced information about risk and protective factors that predict adolescent drug use and related problem behaviors. This paper investigates the Communities That Care Youth Survey that measures multiple risk and protective factors. Using a sample of 172,628 students who participated in surveys administered in seven states in 1998, analyses were conducted to test the factor structure of these risk and protective factors and to test the equivalence of the factor models across five racial/ethnic groups (African Americans, Asians or Pacific Islanders, Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans), four grade levels (6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th) and both gender groups. Results support the construct validity of the surveys risk and protective factor scales and indicate that the measures are equally reliable across males and females and five racial/ethnic groups. Implications of these findings for science-based prevention planning are discussed.