2009年南亚政治经济发展概述

2009年南亚国家政治局势发展总体向好,印度国大党赢得选举继续执政;孟加拉国新政府执政后政局保持了稳定;斯里兰卡结束了长期内战实现了和平;尼泊尔政府换届后国内局势基本稳定;巴基斯坦和阿富汗继续表现出了反恐前线的特点。南亚国家之间的相互关系有了可喜的发展,在共同应对国际金融危机的影响方面加强了彼此的合作,各国经济保持了一定的发展水平。各国在新的一年中加紧经济政策调整,以保持经济继续向前发展。     

埃及伊斯兰中间主义思潮的理论与实践

伊斯兰中间主义思潮,是以格尔达维博士为代表的埃及著名的伊斯兰思想家,在新的历史条件下对伊斯兰复兴主义所做的一种全新的理论建构。在理论形态上,它表现为以伊斯兰宪政主义、后伊斯兰主义、新伊斯兰主义为代表的形形色色的伊斯兰社会和政治思潮;在现实生活中,以1996年埃及中间党的成立和2005年议会大选时穆斯林兄弟会提出的"改革倡议"和"选战纲领"发表为标志,反映出它对当前埃及伊斯兰政治的指导和实践。作为当前伊斯兰世界最重要的思潮之一,中间主义不仅是全球化挑战背景下伊斯兰自我调适的扬弃与反映,更是对未来可能出现的某种伊斯兰治理模式的创新与探索。     

How Many Lives Do the Taliban Have?

After having participated in the civil war and later ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, the current Taliban have a third life as insurgents against the Afghan government and its foreign supporters. Their aim is to return to power and establish an Islamic system. Pakistani shelter and support, guerrilla warfare, and terrorist tactics allowed the Neo-Taliban to extend their influence, particularly to the south and east of Afghanistan. They used the weakness of the Hamid Karzai regime to set up shadow governments. Since even the coalition forces have abandoned the aim of defeating them, the Taliban are guaranteed survival after foreign combat troops leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014. Due to the different interests of the main stakeholders—the Afghan government, the Taliban, the United States, and Pakistan—it is unlikely that the conflict will end by negotiations any time soon. Thus, the civil war will continue. When the Taliban try to extend their reach beyond rural areas and into non-Pashtun districts, they will meet tough resistance. Therefore, it is likely that the fragmentation of Afghanistan will persist and that the Taliban will not return as rulers of a united Afghanistan.     

The Contingency of Voter Learning: How Election Debates Influenced Voters’ Ability and Accuracy to Position Parties in the 2010 Dutch Election Campaign

Election campaigns are expected to inform voters about parties’ issue positions, thereby increasing voters’ ability to influence future policy and thus enhancing the practice of democratic government. We argue that campaign learning is not only contingent on voters’ characteristics and different sources of information, but also on how parties communicate their issue positions in election debates. We combine a two-wave panel survey with content analysis data of three televised election debates. In cross-classified multilevel auto-regression models we examine the influence of these debates in the 2010 Dutch parliamentary election campaign on voters’ knowledge of the positions of eight parties on three issues. The Dutch multiparty system allows us to separate voters’ ability to position parties from their accuracy in ordering these parties. We reach three main conclusions. First, this study shows that voters become more able and accurate during the campaign. However, these campaign learning effects erode after the elections. Second, whereas voters’ attention to campaigns consistently contributes to their ability to position parties, its effect on accuracy is somewhat less consistent. Third, televised election debates contribute to what voters learn. Parties that advocate their issue positions in the debates stimulate debate viewers’ ability to position these parties on these issues. In the face of the complexity of campaigns and debates in multiparty systems, campaigns are more likely to boost voters’ subjective ability to position parties than their accuracy.     

泰国:2011～2012年回顾与展望

2011年7月,泰国提前举行大选,为泰党赢得选举并联合小党派组建联合政府。前总理他信的妹妹、为泰党候选人英拉·西那瓦当选泰国第28任总理,也是泰国历史上首位女总理。由于特大洪灾的影响,2011年泰国经济增长速度低于预期,新政府执政能力也经受考验。外交方面,泰柬边境冲突成为泰国本年度重要的外交事件,但两国关系随着英拉政府上台而开始出现缓和。     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened - that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

试论土耳其伊斯兰复兴对女权运动的影响

伊斯兰复兴是当代土耳其社会的突出现象,伊斯兰主义者通过废除头巾禁令的过程,为妇女争取更多自由选择的权利;伊斯兰政党通过动员妇女参与政党政治和民主选举,为她们赢得更大的话语空间;伊斯兰非政府组织通过关注妇女面临的各种社会问题,拓展女权运动的范围。伊斯兰复兴作为现代化进程的伴生物,在一定程度上促进了女性权利意识的觉醒,因而在客观上促进了土耳其女权运动的发展。     

The Taliban and Islam

This paper examines the aims, motives and methods of the Taliban, the present rulers of most of Afghanistan. In accordance with their fundamentalist views the Taliban have established an Islamic system which focuses on the implementation of Shariah. This paper argues that the Taliban apply directly the divine injunctions which they have drastically sharpened ‐ that means without being sanctioned by act of law of men. The government which the Taliban have set up has so far reached only a low level of institutionalization; the real power emanates from their leader, Mullah Omar.     

Playing Their Cards Right: Ethnic Parties and Government Coalitions in Postcommunist Europe

This article seeks to identify the determinants of ethnic parties’ access to coalition governments in Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia between 1990 and 2013. We conducted a cross-national and longitudinal analysis in which we took into account all the elections in which the ethnic parties gained parliamentary representation. With 21 cases over two decades—with the party at the election being the unit of analysis—and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) as the method of analysis, this study concludes that the pivotal position is important for access to government coalitions, while organizational change and government incumbency have a limited explanatory power.     

The Madrid Bombings and Negotiations With ETA: A Case Study of the Impact of Terrorism on Spanish Politics

This article analyzes the impact that two terrorism-related matters had on Spanish politics and electoral processes in the country. First, the article analyzes the terrorist attacks perpetrated by jihadists on March 11, 2004, three days before Spain's general election. The indiscriminate, lethal attacks caused a state of shock in the country, brought the election campaign to a sudden end, and led to the defeat of the party in power. Second, the article analyzes the negotiations entered into with the ETA terrorist organization by the new government during its first term, from 2004 to 2008. This controversial step, upheld by the Spanish government despite massive opposition by civil society and the main opposition party, failed to bring about the end of ETA. Both the Madrid attacks and the negotiations with ETA were responsible for the breakdown of the consensus in regard to terrorism that had existed among the main Spanish political parties. The article analyzes how both events generated an unprecedented level of polarization and tension among political parties and society from 2004 to 2008, and how each event had a different impact on the general elections held during that period. The period under examination provides an example of adversarial politics; terrorism was highly influenced by the management of both events by the main political players.     

2008年初肯尼亚政治危机反思

2008年初,肯尼亚政治危机的导火线是奥廷加及其领导的"橙色民主运动"对总统选举结果强烈不满.当年的"全国彩色同盟"解体,分裂为"全国团结党"和"橙运"两大派,是双方矛盾不可调和的结果.奥廷加的崛起除得益于肯尼亚盛行的族性政治外,同他的改革派面貌和建立小族--地区联合阵线的主张与宣传活动有关.这次危机的解决和大联合政府的成立归因于来自国内外的巨大压力.非盟和前联合国秘书长科菲·安南发挥了关键性的调停作用.大联合政府面临宪法改革、土改等诸多问题,但双方为了各自的既得利益,取得进一步的妥协是可能的.     

论现代阿富汗发展进程中的伊斯兰教育

阿富汗是当今世界上教育入学率和成人识字率最低的国家之一。在这个国家,以古兰经、“圣训”和伊斯兰教教义为主要内容的伊斯兰教育,源远流长。伊斯兰教育的主要机构有清真寺教育和现代宗教学校教育。在阿富汗的现代教育中,也离不开伊斯兰教育的成份。     

The Istanbul Process: prospects for regional connectivity in the heart of Asia

In 2014, Afghanistan will confront profoundly significant challenges: international troops will withdraw and a pivotal presidential election is scheduled in April. In anticipation, the USA has outlined the ‘New Silk Road’ vision, as part of an attempt to move away from military solutions towards a notion of regional connectivity in South Central Asia. This vision has been the target of extensive criticisms, especially in terms of a perceived gap between rhetoric and reality, yet it is striking that a major segment of the region has begun to take ownership and move in new directions. A key manifestation of this shift is ‘The Istanbul Process on Regional Security for a Secure and Stable Afghanistan’ (IP) launched in 2011. This article evaluates what has been achieved thus far and the obstacles which may undermine a full realisation of the process. The IP’s focus is on ‘connectivity’, engaging the landlocked nation of Afghanistan and safeguarding it from the isolation which fomented extremism and conflict in the past. Expanded connections must also take account of divisions between participating nations, the potency of the insurgency, the weaknesses of the Afghan state and issues without direct linkage with Afghanistan such as the ongoing conflict in Syria. If the process enjoys even a modicum of success, further regional crises might be averted, and new opportunities for sustainable development will be uncovered.     

Wolves in sheep clothing or victims of times? Discussing the immoderation of incumbent Islamic parties in Turkey,Egypt, Morocco,and Tunisia

This article discusses the “immoderation” of incumbent Islamic parties – defined by the pursuit of a moral agenda and by an unwillingness to compromise with the opposition – through a comparative study of four incumbent Islamic parties in the socio-politically different regimes of Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Building on literature from religion and politics, social psychology, sociology of religion, and on the inclusion-moderation hypothesis, this study argues that (1) Islamic parties’ strong organizations resulted both in their success and in the absence of internal pluralism and that (2) their dominant status in the party system consolidated their majoritarian understanding of democracy. Through its discussion of “immoderation” this study aims to contribute to the interdisciplinary literature on religion and politics.     

Party nationalization following democratization: modelling change in turbulent times

Which political parties grow more or less statically nationalized in the immediate aftermath of a democratic transition? What accounts for these changes? This is the first broadly cross-national analysis of this dimension of stabilization of the democratic regime. It uses a sample of 64 moderate and large political parties from 19 countries in South Europe and Latin America. In the first stage of the analysis, I use growth curve models on panels of district-level, lower house, election results to test each party for changes in static nationalization. Results show that 41% of the cases grow more nationalized, about 22% grow less nationalized, and the rest show no evidence of change. Then, I test explanations of increasing static nationalization derived from (a) the competitive context; (b) the institutional context; and (c) the social structural context. I find that parties become more nationalized when (a) they are jointly programmatic and in government, and the party system is less fragmented; (b) the political system is centralized and a presidential election is concurrent; and (c) society is less ethnically fragmented. Finally, I confirm that more statically nationalized parties are associated with a higher quality of democracy.     

The first initiatives

The Greek election of May 2012 failed to produce a government, resulting in repeat elections six weeks later. This shock outcome was a symptom of a broader delegitimation of the national political system. Over the past decade Eurobarometer data show a much more extensive loss of confidence in political institutions in Greece than in the European Union as a whole. In a first phase, rising political discontent was managed within the traditional political framework through alternation in power between the two major parties. In contrast, the second phase, following the outbreak of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, led to the dramatic fragmentation of the party system and changed the mode of government formation. This process is not reversible and entails serious democratic dangers.     

印度左翼政党对金融危机的看法：与国大党政府的比较

印度第十五次全国大选以印共（马）为首的左翼力量败北，国大党大获全胜。这一结果与这次大选的金融危机背景有很大关联。对这次金融危机，左翼政党与国大党的最大分歧是对危机的根源认识不同；在金融危机对印度的影响方面，双方分歧主要是在统计数据及关注的侧重点不同；在对付危机的政策措施方面，双方在国内政策措施层面有一定差异，但在对外政策方面则截然不同。印度左翼政党和国大党的分歧主要是由于意识形态的差异造成的。可以说，国大党政府对待危机的政策态度及采取的措施更符合印度的客观现实及选民的需要，且国大党政府极有可能利用这次金融危机机会在全球成功地打响“印度牌”。     

印度尼西亚伊斯兰教政党的崛起及其发展前景

伊斯兰教政党的崛起是后苏哈托时代印度尼西亚政局出现的重要变化之一,标志着印尼政党制度进一步走向完善和成熟。但由于历史和现实种种因素的影响,在未来短时间内伊斯兰教政党还不太可能在该国政治舞台上发挥主导作用。本文分析了印尼伊斯兰教政党的发展历程和未来前景,对其在印尼政治民主化进程中的影响和作用进行了初步探讨。     

Congressional Communication: Content & Consequences,by Daniel Lipinski. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2004. 143 pp. $29.95 paper.

Television interviews with political candidates are pivotal moments in election campaigns. Previous studies in Anglo-American contexts have shown that adversarialism in television interviews can be predicted by the power of the politician and by the status of the interviewer. However, worldwide the structural conditions of the liberal media system are unique. This article studies how the Anglo-American watchdog model of interviews should be adapted to polarized television markets such as Italy, where broadcast organizations are politically, financially, and historically linked to different political blocks. A content analysis of the level of toughness in questions posed to politicians from different parties during the 2006 and 2008 Italian general elections showed that, in line with the watchdog model, journalists are more adversarial toward politicians who are likely to win the elections. Apart from this, interviews in polarized television markets follow a different model: Interviewers with high status are less adversarial, politicians from minor parties face more threatening questions, and partisan bias is more important than role bias. The generalizability of this model is discussed in the light of the polarization of television markets, partisan segregation, and the potential consequences for vote choice and election outcomes.     

South African election posters: Reflecting the maturing of a democracy?

Abstract

The South African democracy has survived three national and provincial elections and three local elections, since 1994. In comparison to other young democracies in Africa, South Africa has experienced a relatively stable transition to democracy. However, the ruling ANC has not been under pressure from opposition parties. Although this has helped pave the way, a dominant governing party does not necessarily encourage the growth of a mature, democratic political culture. The assumption of this article is that political parties in developing societies have a normative obligation to do more than canvas votes during election campaigns. Political parties should also be instrumental in fostering a democratic political culture by communicating democratic values, encouraging participation in the democracy and enabling voters to make an informed electoral choice. Although political posters contribute mainly to image building, the reinforcement of party support, and the visibility of the party, posters are the agenda setters or headlines of a party's campaign – it is therefore argued that political parties in developing societies also need to design political posters responsively, in order to sustain the democracy. In general it seems that the poster campaigns of parties have matured since 1999, in the sense that there was less emphasis on democratisation issues in the past, and the campaigns conformed more to the norm of Western political campaigning.