“So,the Killings Continued”: Wartime Mobilization and Post-War Violence in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

ABSTRACT

Many post-war states experience continuous low-intensity violence for years after the formal end of the conflict. Existing theories often focus on country-level explanations of post-war violence, such as the presence of spoilers or the nature of the peace agreement. Yet, post-war violence does not affect all communities equally; whereas some remain entrenched in violence, others escape the perpetuation of violent conflict. We argue that communities where wartime mobilization at the local level is based on the formation of alliances between armed groups and local elites are more likely to experience post-war violence, than communities where armed groups generate civilian support based on grassroots backing of the group’s political objectives. We explore this argument in a comparison of three communities in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which have experienced different levels of post-war violence. The analysis supports the main argument and contributes to the research on the microdynamics of civil war by outlining the implications of certain strategies of wartime mobilization and how these may generate localized legacies.     

Using Rwandan traditions to strengthen programme and policy implementation

Implementing change is far harder than making policy pronouncements that call for change. Rwanda, in the 20 years since the 1994 genocide, has made substantial progress in turning around its economy and in meeting key Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Real GDP in Rwanda grew at a rate of over 8% per year in the past years, the percentage of the people living in poverty has dropped by 14%, and UNDP reports that Rwanda is on track to meeting many but not all MDGs by 2015. Rwanda's progress in economic and social spheres stands out in Africa, where many countries, despite commitments to the MDGs, lag behind on performance. The difference in Rwanda is the leadership's attention to implementation, and the incorporation of endogenous practices, particularly into planning and accountability. This article is based on observations of practice at national and community levels and of policy design and implementation. It is a by-product of a study of the impact of different approaches to community health delivery systems in Rwanda, completed as part of the author's doctoral dissertation, and also of the author's experience working within the government in Rwanda.     

Job creation in fragile states through SME financing: notes from post-war Liberia

Sustainable job creation in post-conflict environments often involves financing private-sector development. However, a poor business climate and the erosion of capacity in the domestic private sector reduce the effectiveness of traditional financing strategies in post-conflict environments. Using the experience of post-war Liberia, this article discusses strategies for improving small and medium enterprise (SME) development projects in post-conflict environments through innovative financing which takes into account the effects of conflict on managerial and entrepreneurial capacity and the business climate. Implementation strategies that support conflict-sensitive post-conflict development are also discussed.     

脆弱性视角下气候变化与暴力冲突的传导机制探究

气候变化通过直接或间接的方式影响暴力冲突发生的可能性,但气候变化与暴力冲突之间的因果传导机制仍需要进行深入探究。作者从脆弱性的视角出发,探索从气候变化到暴力冲突的传导机制,基于复杂交织的自然因素和社会因素,通过联系的独立性和多重性,分析了气候冲突的三级传导机制,并在此基础上强调了脆弱性在气候变化与暴力冲突复合传导机制中的结构性地位。文章从生态、经济、社会和政治四个方面对脆弱性进行阐述,并分析了其在气候冲突传导机制中的作用。气候变化是暴力冲突的一种外源性触发器,脆弱性作为社会内生性因素在气候冲突风险中发挥一种屏障作用。脆弱性升高将会造成国家对暴力冲突风险的屏障作用减弱,导致气候冲突风险显著上升。     

Afghanistan: the politics of post-war reconstruction

Post-war reconstruction has become a dominant feature of Western political discourse and a key policy concern since the 1990s. While there is an acute need for informed debate between political scientists and practitioners engaged in such activity, this requirement is often ignored. From a practical perspective, most post-war reconstruction initiatives have, in recent years, been mired by lack of donor support or by no reduction in the dangers that were present prior to the outbreak of violence. Using Afghanistan as a case study, this article seeks primarily to advance policy thinking on what has become known in the literature as ‘state building’. Based on a theoretical and empirical examination, it attempts to assess the political future of Afghanistan following international involvement in the country over the past year. Most importantly, it highlights that the reconstruction of Afghanistan is dependent on developing a new political culture and a new way of thinking among the citizenry that ranks compromise over con?ict. More generally, the paper concludes that contemporary approaches to post-war reconstruction have been depressingly limited in their results.     

Understanding food policy change in Ghana

Evidence-based policy-making has become a critical aspect of development strategy in developing countries. Yet the assumption that policymakers will automatically use available evidence may not be valid in all contexts. To influence positive policy change requires an understanding of the unique policy process and drivers of policy change in the context of a particular country and sector. Strengthening the capacity of key agricultural policy stakeholders can facilitate evidence-informed policy-making. This article documents an approach to strengthening the capacity of parliamentarians in Ghana. It attempts to measure to what extent such investments could lead to informed policy-making to promote poverty reduction. Lessons are drawn from a group of Ghanaian parliamentarians following an exposure and learning visit to India.     

Water tariff conflict resolution through indigenous participation in tri-water sector partnerships: Dalun cluster communities in northern Ghana

The paper examines how the perceived ownership of a water resource negatively influenced local people's attitudes towards payment of potable water tariffs and exacerbated conflicts between water users and service providers in the Dalun community of the northern region of Ghana. The paper presents a case study of how community participation and endogenous approaches to conflict resolution contributed to payment of water tariffs. The findings show that the establishment of a tri-water sector partnership (TWSP), consisting of the Ghana Water Company Ltd (GWCL), private sector development practitioners, and community water boards, led to positive mediation of water tariff conflicts using the institution of chieftaincy. Alternative, endogenous conflict resolution methods combined with modern methods in a tripartite partnership showed promise as an approach to managing conflicts in water projects and in broader poverty reduction efforts.     

Eyes wide shut: persistent conflict and liberal peace-building in Nepal and Sri Lanka

The decisive, albeit different, endings of armed conflict in Sri Lanka and Nepal and subsequent post-war developments challenge key assumptions about conflict that have informed post-Cold War international efforts to produce peace in such conflict zones. International intervention—including in Sri Lanka and Nepal—characterises armed conflict as sustained by specific political economies that can only be stably resolved by establishing liberal democracy and market economics. This paper examines liberal peace engagement in Sri Lanka and Nepal to challenge a crucial assumption of the persistent conflict thesis, namely the separation between political contestation and armed conflict. It argues that the divergent post-conflict outcomes of continuing ethnic polarisation in Sri Lanka and constitutional reform in Nepal reveal strong continuities in the dynamics of pre-war, war and post-war politics. This continuity challenges the presumed separation of politics and violence that drove international engagement to produce liberal peace and suggests that such engagement, far from encouraging reform, may have (inadvertently) sustained conflict in both cases.     

The Rule of Law and the UN Peacebuilding Commission: a social development approach

There is a danger that the Rule of Law Assistance Unit of the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission will employ the same dominant but problematic paradigm that the international development community has pursued across the globe. This top-down, state-centred paradigm, sometimes known as ‘rule of law orthodoxy’, stands in contrast to an alternative set of strategies: legal empowerment. Legal empowerment involves the use of legal services, legal capacity-building and legal reform by and for disadvantaged populations, often in combination with other development activities, to increase their freedom, improve governance and alleviate poverty. It is typically carried out by domestic and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs), but also by governments and official aid agencies. This alternative approach focuses directly on the disadvantaged and integration with other development activities, which means it often operates under the de facto rubric of social development. Legal empowerment strategies vary among countries and NGOs. But their impact includes reforming gender-biased, non-state justice systems in Bangladesh; ameliorating the legal system's corruption in post-conflict Sierra Leone; keeping the human rights flame burning in post-conflict Cambodia; advancing natural resources protection and indigenous peoples' rights in Ecuador; and strengthening agrarian reform in the Philippines. Addressing such priorities can help alleviate poverty, ameliorate conflict and prevent chaos or repression from dominating the disadvantaged, particularly in conflict or post-conflict societies.     

STRUCTURES OF ETHNIC CONFLICT: REVOLUTION VERSUS SECESSION IN RWANDA AND SRI LANKA

A structural framework of ethnic politics is presented, contrasting the patterns of inter-ethnic relations found in ranked versus unranked systems of ethnic stratification. This framework allows us to account for why ethnic conflict erupts in some cases but not others, and why that conflict takes the form of ethnic revolution in some situations and ethnic separatism in others. This framework's explanatory utility is illustrated with a comparison of case studies: why ethnic separatism emerged in Sri Lanka while ethnic revolution occurred in Rwanda.     

Empowering women at home and beyond: applying Japanese experiences for poverty alleviation

The problem of poverty pockets in middle income countries has been identified as a major constraint for realising the Millennium Development Goals. There is an international need to develop programmes that alleviate poverty of identified populations without incurring their dependency on external aid. Aiming at developing such a programme, this article introduces the Japanese post-war Life Improvement Program and analyses the potential of its application to contemporary developing countries for poverty alleviation in a self-sufficient manner, intending to empower women. Issues such as gender relations, evaluating impacts, and linking practices to larger programmes and policies are also discussed.     

Burundi: country profile

One of Africa's most rural and densely populated countries, Burundi is a landlocked nation in Central Africa. The 4.9 million people are 85% Hutus, agricultural people of Bantu origin. However, the Hutus are excluded from power by the minority Tutsis, and the 2 groups have engaged in violent conflict. After a military coup in 1987, a new president, Major Pierre Buyoya, was installed, but restrictions on the Hutus continue. The major difference in Burundi has been a relaxation of restrictions on the Catholic church, which were severe under the former President Bagaza. Most Hutus are Catholic, with a minority of Muslims. For the peasant farmer, faced with diminishing arable land and reliance on 1 export crop (coffee), life is becoming more difficult. An expansion of sugar production was planned to reduce reliance on coffee, although the government has a rather ambivalent approach to development. While promoting private sector development with the help of the World Bank and the U.S. government, the Burundi government maintains a rigid 1-party system with strict control over the lives of the people. Infant mortality stands at 196/1,000 live births and life expectancy is low--43 years for women and 40 years for men. The literacy rate is low (39% for men, 15% for women), and the GNP per capita is low ($230). Most land is used for subsistence crops such as cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes, maize, pulses, and sorghum.     

From victorious rebels to strong authoritarian parties: prospects for post-war democratization

ABSTRACT

In a number of cases, rebel movements that won civil wars transformed into powerful authoritarian political parties that dominated post-war politics. Parties whose origins are as victorious insurgent groups have different legacies and hence different institutional structures and patterns of behaviour than those that originated in breakaway factions of ruling parties, labour unions, non-violent social movements, or identity groups. Unlike classic definitions of political parties, post-rebel parties are not created around the need to win elections but rather as military organizations focused on winning an armed struggle. Key attributes of victorious rebel movements, such as cohesive leadership, discipline, hierarchy, and patterns of military administration of liberated territory, shape post-insurgent political parties and help explain why post-insurgent parties are often strong and authoritarian. This article seeks to identify the mechanisms that link rebel victory in three East African countries (Uganda, Ethiopia, and Rwanda) to post-war authoritarian rule. These processes suggest that how a civil war ends changes the potential for post-war democratization.     

The roots of coercion and insurgency: exploiting the counterfactual case of Honduras

Anecdotal evidence points to a significant relationship between repression and rebellion and yet the quantitative civil war literature ignores state strategies, deeming them endogenous or perfectly correlated with polity type. This article seeks to bring the state back in again and examine the causes of states' strategies and the effects of these strategies on non-violent mobilisation. It finds that, under certain circumstances, a state's response to a peaceful opposition movement depends not on its institutions or capacity; rather, it is a function of the state's control of the national security apparatus, autonomy from its constituents, and resources fungible for reform. Additionally, the article concludes that state policy can play a more significant role in explaining the onset of civil conflict than do structural variables such as per capita income, terrain and population size. Historical analysis of coercion and insurgency in the counterfactual case of Honduras illustrates the plausibility of this argument.     

Why do some Arab citizens see democracy as unsuitable for their country?

Why do some Arab citizens regard democracy favourably but see it as unsuitable for their country? Modernization theory contends that economic development creates modern citizens who demand democracy. Cultural theories see Islam and democracy as incompatible. Government performance theories argue that citizens who perceive the current authoritarian government as acting in a transparent manner will demand greater democracy. I argue that attitudes toward democracy are shaped by beliefs about its political, economic, and religious consequences, including those related to sectarianism. I test this consequence-based theory using Arab Barometer data from six nations. Sixty percent hold favourable views of democracy generally and for their country, while 7% reject democracy. Twenty-seven percent support democracy generally but see it as unsuitable for their country. Beliefs that democracy will have negative consequences and perceptions of poor government performance are the most important predictors of democracy's unsuitability. Modernization theory receives support, but Islamic identity and beliefs do not consistently predict attitudes in the expected direction. These findings offer a more nuanced understanding of Arab public opinion and suggest that concerns about the consequences of free elections affect support for democracy as much as assessments of the political and economic performance of the current authoritarian regime.     

试析德国对卢旺达的发展援助

发展援助是德国外交政策的一极,既是推动和实现德国对非洲外交目标的重要工具,也强烈地塑造了德国的对非洲政策。作为世界最不发达国家之一,卢旺达在德国对非洲发展援助中占据了特殊的位置。20世纪60年代以来,德国对卢旺达发展援助主要经历了4个发展阶段,目前呈现出快速发展的势头。德国主要通过财政援助和技术援助促进卢旺达在医疗卫生、种族和解、政治发展以及经济改革等领域的建设。德国对卢旺达的援助,既有其显著的特点和优势,也存在明显的缺陷。中、德两国对卢旺达的援助存在很大差异。     

External Democratization after War: Success and Failure

In post-war societies external actors promote democracy within a broad framework of state- and nation-building, rule-of-law building, and economic development. But not all democracy promotion efforts succeed in an equal way. A closer look at cases of intervention and democratization since 1945 helps us to account for this variation. Cases of democratization can be differentiated according to their level of post-war socio-economic development, the level of social trust versus the level of inner-societal violence, the character of remaining stateness, the potential erosion of the nation, and the terms of peace. In order to explain the democratization successes of the post-World War II period on the one hand, and the apparent democratization failures of the 1990s and after 11 September 2001 on the other, the strategies external actors use in post-war transformation must be considered. Sometimes, external actors differ significantly in their ability and willingness to deal with the five issues mentioned above. Given differences in both structural conditions and actor engagement, external actors should be more careful when using some of the early democratization cases as blueprints for democracy promotion today.     

From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

马来西亚华裔新生代的“祖籍记忆”初探

调查表明,马来西亚华裔新生代的国民认同和族群认同均表现出相当的强度,我们倾向于把这种“双强”的特征看作是走向多元文化主义的马来西亚华裔集体自我意识的结构特征。而“祖籍记忆”正是华裔构建其族群认同的意识和文化基础。一方面,华裔可能通过和祖籍国建立更多的联系来维持和加强祖籍记忆,以达到强化族群意识的目的;另一方面,在多元文化主义的政治背景下,为立足当地生存和发展,将祖籍国“对象化”也成为其策略。     

Internal borderlands: architectures of force and state expansion in India’s central ‘frontier’

India’s Maoist insurgency, a conflict in the geographic heartland of the country, is often portrayed as symptomatic of the underdevelopment and weak governance of the region. Rhetorically, the state has pursued a counter-insurgency strategy premised on a tandem of ‘security’ and development, while emphasising the conflict zone’s rootedness in the nation. This discourse ignores that historically the state has treated the region as a hostile ‘borderland’. This paper argues that the Indian state’s counter-insurgency is structured around a set of strategies of absorption. Drawing on James C. Scott’s examination of Zomia, as well as Henri Lefebvre’s theories of the state and space, this paper examines processes of militarised state expansion. Focusing on the construction of roads, government-controlled resettlement camps, forward operating bases and militarised schools, this paper conceptualises these particular state spaces as ‘architectures of force’: material manifestations of a larger project of highly militarised and acutely violent state-building.