The Sources of Pension Reforms in Western Europe: Domestic Factors,Policy Diffusion,or Common Shock?

Existing research has linked the adoption of pension reforms to demographic pressures, party ideology, and the diffusion of social policy ideas. We argue that pension policy change in Western Europe is also related to the “shock” of European Monetary Union (EMU). We use a Spatial Autoregressive Probit model with event-history features to test whether the decision to reform can be best explained by domestic factors, diffusion dynamics, or similar exposure to a common shock. We find that EMU made pension reform more likely for low and moderately indebted countries in the early 1990s but delayed reform in the late 1990s. Demographic pressures and policy diffusion also mattered for reform adoption, but not more than the EMU shock.     

The Political Fate of Market Reform in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe

Why did political leaders adopt drastic, costly neoliberal policies in a number of countries, but not in others? Why did these painful measures elicit popular support in some nations, while triggering rejection and protest elsewhere? To complement extant explanations for these puzzling developments, the article draws on the core finding of prospect theory, a psychological theory of decision making under risk: people tend toward bold, risky choices when facing prospects of losses, but opt for caution when anticipating gains. Accordingly, leaders enact and citizens support drastic reforms only when they face deep crises, such as hyperinflation. This argument yields predictions about the different stages of the reform process, which the article assesses through a wide-ranging examination of reform politics in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe. Boolean analysis corroborates most of the predictions derived from prospect theory, but also suggests the importance of economic andpolitical-institutional context factors.     

印度社会保障制度改革及其对我国的启示

经济全球化背景下,印度社保市场规模的扩大、人口转型期的考验和增加财力,缩减赤字等都要求印度对现行社保制度进行必要的改革。虽然印度建立了较为全面的以养老保险和医疗保险为主的社会保障制度,但该制度存在过分以福利导向、忽视公共行政改革、社保福利呈现二元特征、覆盖面不足、管理专业性不强和缺乏统一监管等问题。印度社保制度改革的总体原则是坚持专业性、系统性和过渡性三个原则,涉及公务员养老金改革、新型自愿社保计划、雇员公积金计向l改革和引入私人养老保险基金等四项改革内容。印度社保制度改革对我国社保制度的改革也有着积极的启示作用。     

From decisionism to consensus? the politics of the second‐generation reforms in Argentina

This article focuses on the institutional and political constraints to the adoption and implementation of second‐generation economic reforms in democratizing countries, specifically Argentina. The principal hypothesis is that these reforms require a different set of political conditions from those that enabled the successful adoption and implementation of first generation economic reforms. Institutional constraints hamper the adoption of second‐generation reforms, due both to their intrinsic characteristics and the context of stability in which the attempts arise. This contrasts with first‐generation reforms, whose nature and the surrounding context of crisis allows governments to overcome the constraints to change by pursuing a decisionist strategy. The separation of powers and purposes embodied in the Argentine institutional structure increases the number of veto points through which a plethora of discordant voices is reproduced. Rather than facilitating consensus on change, the outcome is more likely to be stalemate or lengthy negotiations, in which actors ensure that their private interests prevail. The politics of labour and fiscal reforms in Argentina illustrate the argument. The study has implications for the stereotype of ‘delegative democracy’, of which Argentina is often said to be an example.     

俄罗斯私有化改革的经济绩效分析

随着苏联的解体 ,独立后的俄罗斯走上了私有化的道路。在将近十年的私有化改革过程中 ,俄罗斯取得了一定的成绩 ,也存在着严重的问题 ,就改革者最初设想的结果而言 ,俄罗斯的私有化是失败的     

Understanding foreign policy strategies of Kazakhstan: a case study of the landlocked and transcontinental country

Abstract

Examining Kazakhstan’s foreign policy through the lens of its position as the largest landlocked, and transcontinental, country in the world, the paper presents a multidimensional analysis of the unique soft power strategy adopted recently by this nation in promoting its various international initiatives in its region. In doing so, the paper attempts to understand the implications of Kazakhstan’s distinctive geopolitical setting at the heart of Eurasia for regional integration and security-building initiatives that have been proposed and actively supported by this emerging nation. The paper focuses on investigating key political and socioeconomic aspects of the country’s location at the intersection of Europe and Asia and analyses whether a symbiotic relationship exists between Kazakhstan’s multi-vectored foreign policy and the wide range of its international initiatives aiming to promote economic development, partnership and peaceful coexistence between various nations in the region. The key findings and generalizations of the research will facilitate better understanding of the implications of landlocked geography for the direction of foreign policy, using concrete examples and manifestations of political decisions made in the area.     

Economic policy reform and political transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the distributional consequences of neo‐liberal economic reform during the contemporary era of political transition in the sub‐Saharan African nations of Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Zambia. It questions the conventional wisdom that reform, by imposing austerity, only produces economic ‘losers’ and subsequent political opposition which will derail reform programmes, particularly in transitional democracies such as those in present‐day Africa. Indeed, it demonstrates that economically reformist politicians employ democratization as a strategy to rebuild support coalitions after initiating economic reform, as it allows them to disengage from old clients and to organize reform ‘winners’. Therefore, taking the above‐mentioned cases as a group, this article suggests that Africa's current economic and political reforms may be mutually reinforcing.     

Long-term outlook for China’s political reform

China’s post-1978 economic reform is generally acclaimed as success, for the Chinese economy has expanded nine-fold in a matter of 25 years and the country rose from the world’s 34th largest trading nation in 1978 to the third largest in 2004 ahead of Japan. Interestingly, the Chinese experiment is often described in the West as “economic reform without political reform”. This begets the question: how could a politically un-reformed system be able to deliver such an economic miracle? In reality, China has conducted, by its own standards, major political reforms since 1978. Though far short of the Western expectations, the Chinese experience since 1978 should better be described as “great economic reforms with lesser political reforms”, without which China’s economic success would be inconceivable. China’s “lesser political reforms” have reduced country’s opportunities for greater political change, thus alienating many reform-minded intellectuals. Nevertheless, it may also have helped China avert the possible economic and social upheavals which could have resulted from rushing too fast into a radically different economic and political system. There is a strongly held belief, especially among the more ‘ideological’ observers of Chinese affairs that unless there were a radical political reform, perhaps tantamount to a revolution, to rid China of its “oppressive” Communist Party, the Chinese system would inevitably collapse just like what had happened in the USSR and Eastern Europe. As the party has been in power, China had been predicted to face collapse in the aftermath of the Tiananmen crisis of 1989, the Soviet Union’s disintegration of 1990, the death of Deng Xiaoping in 1996, and the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the 2003 outbreak of SARS. Yet all these forecasts turned out to be wrong and the track record of the China doomsayers over the past 20 years is indeed poor. Will China become a democracy through its political reform in 20 years? Indeed, a full democracy could be the best scenario for China, the region and beyond, but it is difficult to give a definitive answer, which will, to a great extent, depend on how to achieve democracy in China, i.e. the costs/risks involved, as well as what kind of ultimate shape such a democracy will take. If full-fledged democratisation will take more time, the pressure for a more accountable government and more democratic society is growing, and this trend will continue with the rise of China’s middle class and civil society. Therefore, the most likely scenario for China in the coming two decades is that China will continue its own approach to political reform, and the relative successful experience of China’s economic reform may well set a pattern for China’s political reform in the years to come. As part of Europe’s general approach towards China’s political change, it is in Europe’s interest to assist, in line with the view of most Chinese, gradual reform rather than revolution or ‘regime change’, which could produce hugely negative consequences for China itself, Sino–European relations and European interests in China and even East Asia.     

马来西亚高等教育面向21世纪的改革与发展研究

马来西亚政府提出了"2020年宏愿",要在2020年成为发达国家。在教育方面,提出要成为区域优质教育中心的目标。为实现这个目标,马来西亚政府在许多方面对高等教育进行了改革,主要的是管理体制的改革:由政府控制转向监督和调控;公立大学企业化和高等教育私有化。本文对这3方面的改革做了比较详细的介绍和分析,以期能为我国高等教育的改革发展提供一些参考。     

阿根廷与中国养老金制度改革比较

中国与阿根廷在20世纪90年代进行了养老金制度改革,改革后二者均形成了现收现付与个人账户共存的混合养老保险制度:阿根廷的统一退休养老金体系与中国统账结合的基本养老保险制度。两国养老保险制度在运行过程中均遇上了一系列的问题,阿根廷更是在2008年宣布退回到现收现付制度中。本文分析阿根廷养老金改革转向的动因,以养老金制度运行的各种因素为分析切入点,通过对阿根廷最近两次养老金改革进程中问题与政策的详细分析,指出阿根廷的养老金改革是为了实现养老金制度目标的理性选择——在阿根廷国内条件下,现收现付制度较之个人账户制度是更优的选择。最后,文章分析了阿根廷养老金改革中的经验与教训,并提出为完善中国的养老金制度可供借鉴之处。     

拉美国家国有企业改革及对中国的启示

20世纪 70年代中期以来 ,智利、墨西哥、阿根廷等国家对国有企业进行了改革 ,其特点是围绕私有化展开 ,各具特色 ,又不拘一格且不乏共性和同步性。这些国家的国有企业实施私有化改革后 ,曾取得了提高经济效益、减轻财政负担的积极效果 ,但也造成了大量失业、两极分化和金融动荡等负面影响 ,为经济的长期发展埋下隐患。其改革的经验和教训对中国当前的国有企业改革有一定的借鉴意义。     

试析俄罗斯的金融工业集团

随着私有化的推行,俄罗斯出现了金融工业集团,它是激进经济改革的产物,具有自身的特点。在叶利钦执政时期,金融工业集团在其特有的政治和经济环境中急剧膨胀,成为经济和政治生活中的一支主导力量。然而,普京出任总统后,对其进行了规范与整顿,在与金融寡头的关系上表现出了鲜明的政治独立性。     

Exploring political determinants of the magnitude of financial reforms in developing countries

This paper aims to empirically explore political determinantsof the magnitude of financial reforms, namely, under which conditionsa country is more likely to choose a ‘big-bang’type of financial reform versus a gradual financial reform.Especially, how the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) effecton the magnitude of financial reforms is conditioned by politicalinstitutions is quantitatively examined using 30 developingcountries' data from 1973 to 2002. Results demonstrate thatthe IMF's effect on facilitating a big-bang type of financialreforms is contingent upon the number of veto players in thecase of a democratic government. Also, a non-democratic governmentis more likely to engage in big-bang type of financial reformsthan a democratic government, holding other conditions constant. Received for publication October 8, 2006. Accepted for publication December 12, 2006.     

远东联邦区土地私有化的发展

在俄罗斯私有化改革已经进行了十多年,但土地私有化一直是非常复杂的问题之一,人们对土地私有化的看法不一。普京总统执政后,俄终于彻底解决了这个问题,土地可以自由买卖了。远东联邦区的土地私有化速度比其他地区慢一些,也遇到了一些问题。     

转轨经济中的所有权结构、控制与激励——俄罗斯新型企业制度研究

1992年初 ,俄罗斯开始以激进改革方式向市场经济过渡 ,其重要内容之一就是国有企业的强制性私有化改造。到 1999年初 ,俄罗斯共建立股份公司 2 80 0 0多家 ,其中私有化企业超过 2 30 0 0家。俄罗斯非国有经济已占GDP的 72 %。通过大规模的私有化 ,俄罗斯已初步建立了以私有制为基础的多种所有制形式并存的制度结构。但俄罗斯的私有化并未形成有效率的企业制度结构 ,其企业制度及其治理结构存在严重缺陷 ,这已引起国际学术界的广泛关注。基于此 ,对俄罗斯新型企业治理模式进行典型案例分析 ,对我国企业改革政策的制定具有重大的理论启发意义。     

俄罗斯影子经济的成因及其特点

影子经济的产生有历史原因和改革原因。历史原因就是公民与国家对立、国家对产权保护能力削弱、苏联时期国家对经济的过分干预、存在垄断。改革原因主要有对部分产品制定合同价、一次性放开价格、私有化及税赋过高。     

Foreign aid and political conditionality: Issues of effectiveness and consistency

This article examines the implementation of political conditionality by four official aid donors in the 1990s. It explores the aid sanctions taken globally to leverage improvements in respect of human rights and democratic principles, and assesses donor policy practice along two lines of investigation ‐ effectiveness and consistency. A main finding is the ineffectiveness of aid restrictions in contributing to political reforms in recipient countries. This is accounted for more by the weakness of measures imposed than by the strength of recipient governments, questioning the seriousness of donor intent in many cases. Regarding consistency, a pattern of selective and inconsistent policy application is revealed. The increased rhetorical support for democracy and human rights by northern governments post‐cold war has not led to a corresponding change towards the fair and equal treatment of all nations. The continued subordination of human rights and democracy to other foreign policy concerns, notably economic self‐interest, not only undermines policy credibility and legitimacy, but also limits impact and effectiveness. Donors themselves have introduced a normative dimension to aid policy. Yet if their own commitment to the principles of human rights and democracy is at best partial, they can hardly require development partners to abide by them in a manner that commands respect.     

Democratic change in Russia and Ukraine

The transitions in Russia and Ukraine since 1991 offer contrasting patterns of political and social reconstitution. Facing similar problems, Russia forced the pace and embarked on rapid economic and political reform whereas Ukraine sought a more gradual strategy. Neither country, however, has been able to avoid disintegratory pressures on the state and society disrupting the state and nation building endeavours. The challenge of creating new political orders of stable government came into conflict with the democratization project. The outlines of a ‘post’ post‐communist polity in which the goals of stability and democracy can be reconciled are barely visible.     

2011年的缅甸:在改革中前进

2011年是缅甸政府向民选政府转型后的第一年,政治上,新的议会和政府成立后运转正常,同时继续积极推动政治改革;经济上,缅甸私有化进程加快,外贸和外资也出现了良好的增长势头;外交方面的进展尤为明显,与美国、欧盟等西方国家关系打破了僵局,与中国建立了全面战略合作伙伴关系,与印度、日本和东盟关系不断深化。     

俄罗斯养老金制度改革评析

俄罗斯养老金制度起源于前苏维埃时期。前苏联解体后,俄罗斯政府为了适应市场经济发展的需要,改革了国家集中管理的养老保险制度,实行了资金来源多样化的、重视效率并兼顾公平的社会保障模式。新的养老金制度支付体系的实施,表明俄罗斯基本建立起了社会化的养老保险制度框架。政府预算开支已经显著降低,依靠社会集资占据主导地位。但是2000年以前的养老金制度实质上仍是前苏联时期的现收现支体系的翻版。从2001年12月起,《俄罗斯联邦强制养老保险法》、《俄罗斯联邦国家养老保障法》和《俄罗斯联邦劳动养老金法》同时开始生效。这标志着俄罗斯的养老保障体制改革进入了一个更加完备的有法律保障的发展阶段。