级差地租与欧佩克市场战略

作为一个国际石油卡特尔,欧佩克的市场战略对国际石油供应影响巨大.自20世纪80年代中期始,欧佩克实行的主要是低价扩额战略.然而,由于技术进步等原因,这一战略并没有取得预期成功.21世纪初,为了保持合理的价格和市场份额,欧佩克必须扩大与非欧佩克产油国以及国际石油公司的合作.     

油价上涨的原因及对亚洲的影响

近期,国际石油市场价格大幅攀升。2004年5月在中东形势进一步动荡和全球经济复苏对石油需求增大,以及欧佩克4月实施减产计划的影响下,国际市场石油价格一路上扬,一度每桶突破41美元,是20年来油价的最高点。世界石油市场油价的持续坚挺,不仅对世界经济有着巨大的影响,而且对国际石油安全机制的影响进一步突出,尤其是对亚洲地区的影响更为明显。一、当前油价居高不下的主要因素     

影响欧佩克发展的外部因素

近几年来 ,欧佩克在国际社会的地位有所下降 ,由于经济的发展和对环境问题的重视 ,各国都在不断尝试能源多元化的战略来减少对欧佩克的依赖 ,并且积极寻找石油的替代品。 2 0世纪 70年代以来叱咤风云的欧佩克国家到今天已经显得有些力不从心。本文主要就这一问题简略论述影响欧佩克发展的几个外部因素。     

亚洲大洋洲地区产业结构的调整

1985年年中以来,初级产品价格普遍下跌,同年9月五国财政部长会议以后,日元升值、美元贬值已成为发展趋势。1985年年底以来,油价暴跌给东盟和大洋洲地区国家以各种各样的影响。在这种现象的背景里,又出现世界经济增长缓慢、保护主义抬头、产业调整迟滞和债务累积等结构性问题。八十年代前半期是以1981年下半年开始的原油价格疲软为特征的初级产品卡特尔崩     

欧佩克在世界权力结构中的地位变迁

欧佩克是国际政治、经济舞台上一股重要力量。自成立以来 ,它在世界权力结构中的地位经历了从兴起到强盛、再到相对衰落的过程。未来欧佩克在世界权力结构中的地位取决于多种因素共同作用的结果。     

90年代南北经济关系的若干问题

90年代南北关系在经济领域里的主要问题是:发展援助的条件更加苛刻,继续探讨解决债务问题的可行方案;初级产品与工业制成品间的价格“剪刀差”不断扩大;实施和抵制保护主义的斗争日趋激烈;欧佩克控制世界石油市场的能力上升;南北经济技术差距进一步拉大。在世界经济相互依赖逐渐加深的形势下,南北之间虽有矛盾和分歧,但双方进行合作是必然的历史趋势。     

欧佩克减产协议:历史与现实

为应对近年来相对低迷的国际油价,2016年以来欧佩克多次尝试通过控制石油产量来推升油价.2016年2月16日,沙特、俄罗斯、卡塔尔、委内瑞拉四国石油部长在卡塔尔首都多哈举行闭门会议,决定将石油产量冻结在2016年1月11日的水平,但由于欧佩克成员国内部分歧严重,这一决定未能落实.4月17日,欧佩克成员国在多哈再度召开会议,就冻产和减产问题基本达成共识.但是,在6月2日召开的欧佩克半年例会上,沙特和伊朗在相关问题上针锋相对,互不相让,致使会议无果而终.     

欧佩克秘书长谈欧佩克发展战略问题

欧佩克秘书长苏布罗托博士在《欧佩克公报》1994年4月号上撰文,谈欧佩克发展战略中的几个重要问题: 一、开拓中国和亚太地区的石油市场。中国石油生产满足不了经济发展的需要,估计1994年每天进口石油10万桶。到1995年中国石油日生产能力约为300万桶,日消费量为330万桶。到2010年,中国石油生产约只能满足75％的需求,日进口量将达到140万桶的峰值。     

欧佩克内部派系之争的原因、影响及走向

欧佩克内部鹰派和鸽派之争由来已久,引发两派斗争内部原因主要有两派基本国情差异和欧佩克自身组织缺陷;外部原因主要包括国际石油市场及外交关系变化等方面.不同时期鹰派与鸽派国家制定相关政策的主导因素不尽相同,但大都呈现出相互对立的状态.这种派系之争对国际能源市场、石油输出国、欧佩克组织自身、中东地区局势、能源地缘政治等方面的影响不容小觑.从当前鹰鸽两派国家的关系看,欧佩克内部派系之争的未来走势存在三种可能:走向缓和、保持现状及走向决裂.     

欧佩克的油价政策与中国能源安全

高油价导致石油需求数量下降,威胁欧佩克长期市场需求和市场份额,不利于世界经济增长。欧佩克只有积极调整产量,干预国际石油市场,使油价保持在合理的水平,才能维护世界经济的稳定增长,同时维护自身长期利益。高油价同样不利于中国经济的发展,为维护中国能源的安全,中国需要实现石油进口多元化、建立战略石油储备、积极开展石油外交。     

Enduring Resilience: How Oil Markets Handle Disruptions

Plentiful spare capacity persists in the oil production and tanker industries, contrary to Michael Levi's contention in his response to our earlier article, “Protecting ‘The Prize.' ” OPEC leaders retain excess capacity to minimize cartel members' cheating, and tanker companies retain considerable flexibility that allows them to adapt to political-military and other fluctuations in the market. Oil supplies are not on a knife-edge; exaggerated claims of energy vulnerability distort U.S. national security policy.     

Saudi Arabia's Policy Toward non-OPEC Countries

The 2008 energy crisis raises questions with regard to Saudi Arabia's status in the global oil market in general and within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular. Over time, several circumstances such as disagreement amongst OPEC members, the challenge of the alternative energy industry, and the growing influence of petro-traders have restricted Saudi Arabia's influence on the oil market in general and within OPEC in particular. This commentary adds another dimension to the analysis of Saudi Arabia's status in the oil market, by defining the relations between Saudi Arabia and two leading and important oil exporters unaffiliated to any petroleum organisations: Russia and Norway.     

亚洲石油秩序的演绎:浅析三次石油危机对亚洲经济的影响

作为工业经济运行的血液,石油显然是一种战略商品,在经济发展和国际竞争中占有极其重要和独特的地位;而作为一种基础能源产品,石油目前约占全球能源消费的40%,它的价格变化牵动着经济领域的每一个方面,事实上,石油价格的巨幅波动、尤其是持续上涨一直被视为能够显著影响全球通胀和经济发展的一种负面因素。作为正在崛起的亚洲,其内部的石油供需矛盾尤显突出,既有的应对策略和合作框架已无法应对持续高油价的现实,因此,对于亚洲能源需求大国而言,建立能源合作机制,参与博弈来代替完全的市场定价接受者地位至关重要。     

Britain, France, and America's Year of Europe, 1973

Britain's entry into the European Community in 1973 coincided with an American initiative aimed at redefining relations between the United States and Western Europe. This confronted British diplomats with a serious dilemma. They wished to maintain close collaboration with Washington and, for the sake of European unity, to expand on their recently achieved reconciliation with France, a country whose Gaullist elite rejected any further institutionalization of transatlantic relations. French reluctance to engage in a constructive dialogue with the Americans resulted in a fractious debate over the drafting of two seemingly innocuous declarations, and this was exacerbated by the mixed response of the Europeans to the outbreak of the fourth Arab-Israeli war and the ensuing energy crisis. Finally, at the Washington energy conference of February 1974, the British chose to work with the Americans, rather than the French, in seeking to mitigate the economic impact of OPEC's oil policies.     

世界经济形势的回顾、展望及其对中国的影响

2004年世界经济增长总体上呈现出良好态势,美国和东亚经济的表现尤为突出,日本和欧洲经济也开始复苏。由于国际石油价格上涨、美国等发达国家提高利率等因素的作用,世界经济增长在下半年受到抑制,预计 2005年将走向温和增长。世界经济形势变动增加了中国经济前景的不确定性,但不会产生过大的不利影响。     

Editor's Note

Most scholars explain political interactions within OPEC countries with reference to clusters of economic and political variables. In this paper, we use dyadic interaction data to describe the frequency and affective orientation between OPEC pairs. Explanations for the prominent trends within the four time periods are offered. The analysis suggests that no combination of political or economic factors explain consistently the coalitions and cleavages within OPEC between 1959 and 1974.     

The politics of foreign debt in Latin America a study of the debtors’ cartel

This analysis of the foreign debt problem in Latin America shows that this economic burden is onerous and will not be reduced in the short run. The region's political leaders perceived that collective bargaining could increase their bargaining leverage with foreign lenders and could produce more advantageous repayment schedules for most nations. However, despite verbal backing and the economic promise of collective bargaining, a debtors’ cartel failed to materialize. Evaluations of the political dynamics in key nations anticipated creditors. This analysis also shows that the debtors’ cartel failed because collective bargaining did not gain domestic political support. Foreign influence was tangential to the outcome. Given this political climate, the chances for a revival of collective bargaining are very slim.     

Oil Scarcity Ideology in US Foreign Policy, 1908–97

Over the past century peak oil forecasts have had a profound influence on US foreign policy. Unquestioned acceptance of these forecasts, all of which proved wrong, repeatedly led policymakers to assume that rival powers sought to seize dwindling supplies or that disaffected exporter states would decline to sell. Perennial expectation of impending scarcity elevated the perceived importance of foreign oil, especially from the Middle East (ME). In response, increasingly aggressive US policies were adopted to secure ME oil. I call belief in an oil scarcity imperative for aggressive policy oil scarcity ideology. Policymakers’ concerns over oil's availability were repeatedly challenged by market information, which was always ignored. Recurring pessimism over future supply during times of high price was always followed by oversupply and low price, yet aggressive polices to secure supply were never reassessed after scarcity failed to materialize. Scarcity ideology's exemption from scrutiny drove a policy ratchet: US–ME policy could become more aggressive, but not less.     

Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest

American national security policy is based on a misunderstanding about U.S. oil interests. Although oil is a vital commodity, potential supply disruptions are less worrisome than scholars, politicians, and pundits presume. This article identifies four adaptive mechanisms that together can compensate for almost all oil shocks, meaning that continuous supply to consumers will limit scarcity-induced price increases. The adaptive mechanisms are not particularly fragile and do not require tremendous foresight by either governments or economic actors. We illustrate these mechanisms at work using evidence from every major oil disruption since 1973. We then identify the small subset of disruptive events that would overwhelm these adaptive mechanisms and therefore seriously harm the United States. Finally, we analyze the utility of U.S. foreign military policy tools in addressing these threats. Our findings suggest that the United States can defend its key interests in the Persian Gulf—the world's most important oil-producing region—with a less-intrusive, “over the horizon” posture.     

利比亚经济改革:背景、进程与效果

20世纪80年代末以来,由于计划经济体制的低效率、国际石油价格波动的冲击、国际社会制裁的损害,利比亚经济长期处于衰退之中,经济危机引起了政府的合法性危机。在此背景下,利比亚进行了广泛经济改革。改革的主要内容涉及经济体制的私有化和自由化,并使政府职能由石油收入的分配者向市场经济的调节者转变;同时,大力引进外资以推动石油工业的发展。利比亚经济改革取得了令人瞩目的成就,但也存在各种各样的问题和困难。