和平不是必然:对当前国际安全与战争问题的战略反思

2015年是人类空前的浩劫——第二次世界大战结束70周年。二战的破坏可谓空前,但其是否绝后,却还有待观察与思考。正如我们可以把战争分为"热战"与"冷战"一样,和平同样也可分为"冷和平"(假和平)与"真和平"。"冷和平"是一种非常不稳定的国际关系状态,"冷和平"容易给人以和平的假象,以为和平就是必然的,战争离我们很远,从而使得某些中小国家容易"任性",大国容易缺乏包容,低端政治问题容易"越位",这反而容易酿成真正的大危机与大危险。近期西方战略学者发出的"基辛格之忧"与"哈斯之问"也反映了对"冷和平"的忧虑。国际社会如果对"冷和平"状态认识不够、处置不当,则有可能导致国际战争的再现与和平的终结。从历史、现实、未来三个维度,结合中国的国家安全与大国博弈的背景,对国际安全与战争问题做战略思考,可以发现:从历史维度来看,人们对国际战争的认识经历了一个历史过程;从现实维度来看,当前中小国家"任性"乱为,大国博弈暗流涌动,"冷和平"状态令人担忧;从未来维度来看,中美关系与中日关系是影响中国国家安全的最重要的大国关系因素,也是中国对国际战争问题进行战略思考与未来展望时所无法回避的。中国要妥善谨慎地处理好中美关系与中日关系,未来爱好和平的中国将会成为遏制国际战争的重要力量。     

对利比亚战争的战略解读北大核心CSSCISSCI

2011年爆发的利比亚战争是当前国际政治经济秩序严重失衡的必然产物。目前,这场战争已经结束,但其影响和由之引发的问题逐步显现。其中最突出的是利比亚很可能成为西方体系中的附庸和跟班,阿拉伯民族复兴之梦日趋渺茫。战争的非正义性使西方赢得眼前,却可能失掉长远。     

“战争之王”的较量——扭转第二次世界大战胜负的苏德坦克战

在20世纪的技术发明中,坦克以其防护力、机动性和火力被誉为"战争之王"。在第二次世界大战中,苏联装甲部队完成了武器从轻型坦克经中型坦克到重型坦克、战术从坦克的单一防守反击到陆空火力立体合成和在战略上逐渐全面实践大纵深作战这三个层次的发展,最终扭转了第二次世界大战,为反法西斯战争的胜利作出了决定性的贡献。正是在二战苏德坦克战中,人类战争彻底迈入了新的阶段。苏德坦克的旷世交锋不仅塑造了战后至今70年间机械化战争的形态,也为未来军事科学向信息化战争演进指明了方向,其影响不仅延至今日,也将远及未来。     

长期战争对高句丽的影响

高句丽在立国之初，战争对其国力增长发挥了巨大的作用。本文论述了长期战争与高句丽社会发展之间的矛盾冲突。高句丽长期战争乃是其扩张政策的产物，该政策对高句丽不同时期产生了不同的影响，本文着重论述了长寿王之后高句丽社会结构的变化与其对外扩张政策之间的矛盾冲突以及由此带来的高句丽社会发展的停滞，从而指出长期战争是高句丽灭亡的根本原因。     

对利比亚战争的战略解读

2011年爆发的利比亚战争是当前国际政治经济秩序严重失衡的必然产物。目前，这场战争已经结束，但其影响和由之引发的问题逐步显现。其中最突出的是利比亚很可能成为西方体系中的附庸和跟班，阿拉伯民族复兴之梦日趋渺茫。战争的非正义性使西方赢得眼前，却可能失掉长远。     

关于美国的战争特性及其影响

东北亚是当今世界冷战残留最严重的地区,历史恩怨与现实利益相互交织,传统安全与地缘战略共同作用。美国是对东北亚和平、安全与稳定最具影响力的域外大国,从历史和现实的角度,分析战争对美国发展的影响,对我们认识美国的全球特别是亚太地区政治、经济及军事政策,具有重要意义。美国在战争中成长和强大,通过战争维护和巩固世界霸权。美国频繁发动战争的原因包括:没有真正能与之匹敌的对手,选举政治迫使政治人物"讨好选民"与"做点什么",议会对总统进行战争缺乏有效的制度制约,右翼保守势力对战争议题的操弄,在全球进行能源及资源利益争夺。美国虽然不时对战争进行反思,但综观历史,人们对美国领导人能否抵挡住因发动战争所带来的种种利益的诱惑,不能不保持怀疑。     

预防性战争:逻辑、伦理、美国经验及启示

预防性战争是在权势结构中占据优势的国家为预先阻止本国与敌手之间不利于己的权势转移而发动的战争行为,其战略目标在于继续维持本国的权势优越地位和安全环境,旨在使用武力来延缓、阻止当下已经显现、日后可能会更加危险的战略未来。预防性战争是国家战略的一种运用方式,权势转移及由此引发的恐惧是其产生的两大基本动因。预防性战争为现行国际法所禁止,但西方国际关系研究却往往对之持有理论同情。作为当前国际秩序的霸权国家和守成大国,美国在历史上发动的预防性战争数量有限,但预防性思维却长期在美国的战略决策中发挥重要作用。随着国际政治经济的演进,预防性思维在美国当前对外战略中突现,面对崛起国实力发展,美国未来仍有发动预防性战争的可能。阻止预防性战争爆发的根本,在于超越国际政治的现实主义逻辑。中国的和平发展有望为突破"国强必霸"""国强必战"思维提供中国智慧和中国方案。     

评塔利班对巴基斯坦的渗透北大核心CSSCISSCI

美国在阿富汗发动反恐战争后,塔利班加强了对巴基斯坦的渗透。特别是2004年以来,巴基斯坦开始出现基地组织的"巴基斯坦化"以及巴基斯坦塔利班,且它们的势力和影响不断扩大,不仅对巴国内政局,而且对地区局势,特别是对美国主导的反恐战争产生了重要影响。在美国全力实施阿巴新战略之际,塔利班势力对巴基斯坦的渗透及其后续发展值得关注和研究。     

美国发动阿富汗战争及其近期反恐怖政策

阿富汗战争是美国在新世纪之初发动的一场世界性的"反恐怖主义战争",目前来看不可能在短期内结束.它标志着美国的国家安全战略已经迅速地转向全球范围内的反恐怖主义,而国际关系也将因这场战争而进入新一轮的调整阶段.     

越南战争时期澳大利亚对华政策缘由析

越南战争时期,澳大利亚不仅支持美国的战争政策,而且派军队参与美军侵略越南.同时,澳对华政策愈趋强硬,仇华、反华达到顽固不化之程度.当时,我国政府对澳大利亚政府的外交政策予以猛烈抨击,痛斥澳为美帝的"走狗"和"仆从".澳大利亚之所以固执反华,是由其国防与外交战略决定的,是其内政、外交多种因素作用的结果.     

Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War

Few studies consider how civil war onset can be influenced by third parties and by the belligerents’ perceptions of third party actions. I show that the American Civil War, a war largely ignored by civil war scholars, sheds insights into how anticipation of third party intervention influences the decision-making process within the target state and how the possibility of third party intervention can influence the onset and escalation of civil war. The American Civil War is an especially interesting case for exploring the role of third parties in civil war initiation since, unlike most cases considered by the existing civil war literature, the American Civil War is an instance of nonintervention: the third parties (the European powers in this case) mattered despite staying out of the conflict. Specifically, I argue that fear of foreign recognition (particularly by the British) played an underappreciated (if not the decisive) role in the earliest stages of the American Civil War by influencing Lincoln's decision to authorize the first major battle of the war at Manassas Junction, Virginia.     

Experiencing the war “of” terror: a call to the critical terrorism studies community

ABSTRACT

The Critical Terrorism Studies (CTS) community has produced an important volume of work assessing and critiquing epistemological understandings of the War on (of) Terror. Largely missing from this body of work, however, is the experience of those who are directly impacted by the policies of this global phenomenon. By rethinking the War on Terror as an experience of war, I posit a wider understanding, by reassessing its temporal and spatial boundaries, but more significantly, the ways in which it is experienced. By providing a wider understanding of war and expanding our knowledge of its boundaries, I am able to show that those impacted by the policies of the War on Terror can claim to have been subject to an experience of war, even when that experience takes place outside of the war zone. This reflection, however, serves a larger purpose, which is to act as a call to the CTS community to centre the lived experiences of those impacted by the War on Terror in their work and decision-making when engaging with policy and policymakers. This represents a call for an ethical re-centring of CTS scholars to the violence of the War “of” Terror, by reminding us of the many ways in which harm can occur.     

《莱特战记》与大冈升平的战争观

大冈升平的《莱特战记》在详细记录太平洋战争末期日美两国军队在菲律宾莱特岛的攻防战的同时,也表达了作家本人对这场战争的看法。他一方面描写了战争的残酷,触及了日军的加害事实,批判了军队机构的冷酷,表明了反对战争的态度。另一方面,他又混淆战争性质,片面强调美国的战争责任,为日军的侵略罪行辩解,从狭隘的民族主义立场出发赞颂日军在战争中的抵抗。他虽然剖析了日军失败的原因,指出了日本军部在战争进程中的失误,但是并没有追究他们发动侵略战争责任的动机。     

国际资本对日俄战争的影响

日俄战争充分反映了国际资本势力向外扩张过程中的激烈争夺程度,战争双方均得到不同国家资本势力的支持和同情,从而使其具有强烈的国际色彩。日俄战前,两国仍处于资本阵营中的"二流地位"。因此,两国发生大型军事冲突时,仅仅依靠其本国的经济力量很难支撑长期的战争,这就为其他外国资本势力影响日俄战争提供了机会。在战争过程中及其和平谈判问题上,国际资本势力的运作都对日俄战争产生了重要影响。     

Unfinished business: The united states and Franco's Spain, 1944-47

'Unfinished Business' examines American and British postwar policy toward the regime of Francisco Franco in Spain. Although the emergence of the cold war eventually altered that policy from one of strenuous opposition to one of grudging acceptance, the continuing desire of the Western allies to alter or remove the Franco regime illustrates the persistent influence of anti-fascism after World War II. In retrospect, the eventual alignment of Franco with the West seems a foregone conclusion, but in the fluid context of the years immediately after World War II policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic struggled to determine their interests in a world no longer defined by the war and not yet in the grip of the cold war.     

Propaganda,effect, and the cold war: Gauging the status of america's “war of words”

The article examines the interrelationship among propaganda, effect, and the Cold War during congressional debates over America's first peacetime propaganda program. Although the rise of the communication research paradigm affected the production of statistical evidence to measure the effectiveness of America's Cold War propaganda, this case study argues that the “war of words” metaphor further heightened the need for empirical proof of America's status in that conflict, Just as with any physical battle that relies on body counts and land measurements to determine the success of America's war efforts, the criteria for measuring the status of America's “war of words” were driven by a similar demand for “objective” proof. The longevity of the Cold War helped ensure the institutionalization of the communication research paradigm, which rejected the use of anecdotal evidence as support for the program's impact.     

The American Way of Going to War: Mexico (1846) to Iraq (2003)

Prior to the Iraq War, there had been a long series of American wars in which U.S. leaders often maneuvered the other side into “firing the first shot.” This strategy of “passive defense” amounts to an American way of going to war, and it dates back at least to the U.S.-Mexican War. The United States thus retained the moral and legal legitimacy, an asset which is especially important in a democratic political system. The Iraq War represents a fundamental departure from this American way. It might be the worst crisis since Vietnam. but that war was just another entry in the U.S. playbook for how to go to war. The Iraq War not only contradicts longstanding practices in American foreign policy, but it has the potential to issue in far greater international disorder than the Vietnam War. This catastrophe may make future presidents more heedful of John Quincy Adams’ prophetic words: go not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.     

Unfinished business: The united states and Franco's Spain, 1944–47

‘Unfinished Business’ examines American and British postwar policy toward the regime of Francisco Franco in Spain. Although the emergence of the cold war eventually altered that policy from one of strenuous opposition to one of grudging acceptance, the continuing desire of the Western allies to alter or remove the Franco regime illustrates the persistent influence of anti‐fascism after World War II. In retrospect, the eventual alignment of Franco with the West seems a foregone conclusion, but in the fluid context of the years immediately after World War II policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic struggled to determine their interests in a world no longer defined by the war and not yet in the grip of the cold war.     

潮汕海外华侨与抗日战争

潮汕海外华侨在抗日战争中,奋起救亡,宣传抗日;捐资献物,支援抗战;抵制日货,投资建设祖国;回国参战,血洒疆场。他们为打败日本侵略者,争取抗日战争的胜利做出了巨大的贡献。     

Arms Negotiation,War Exhaustion,and the Credibility of Preventive War

Why do some states agree to suspend their weapons programs in exchange for compensation while others fail to come to terms? I argue that the changing credibility of preventive war is an important determinant of arms construction. If preventive war is never an option, states can reach mutually preferable settlements. However, if preventive war is not credible today but will be credible in the future, a commitment problem results: the state considering investment faces a “window of opportunity” and must build the arms or it will not receive concessions later on. Thus, agreements fail under these conditions. I then apply the theoretical findings to the Soviet Union’s decision to build nuclear weapons in 1949. War exhaustion made preventive war not credible for the United States immediately following World War II, but lingering concerns about future preventive action induced Moscow to proliferate.