论偏好和国际制度的关系

理性主义认为,行为体的物质收益是客观存在和固定不变的;偏好只是行为体在追求收益最大化过程中可能出现的结果排列出来的一种方式,是对结果的一种等级排列,因此是外生给定的。建构主义不否认收益的物质性和客观性,但同时强调收益与理念的关系,认为理念根植于社会互动,并在社会互动中得以塑造,具有主体间性,所以收益需要预先的主体间性的承认;偏好是理念的一种外显形式,在互动中会发生变化,不能先于互动而存在;在一个给定环境中,行为体偏好所有可能结果的一个特殊等级排序,是因为他们相信这将满足某个更深层的目标;偏好通过形塑行为体的收益,促使他们重设目标,并据此调整行为,最终影响国际制度安排。     

石油在中东战争中的作用：论争、演进逻辑与现实

近百年的中东战争史是用石油串联起来的历史，这是大部分主流国际关系理论的基本共识。这种把中东地区所有战争的驱动都指向石油的话语深受资源战争逻辑和能源现实主义基调的影响，导致石油因素对中东战争抑制作用的探究被忽视。实际上，石油因素既能催化战争，亦能抑制战争。获取石油资源、石油权力的诱惑以及石油收入的支撑，增加了国家通过武力解决利益争端的意愿，而对占领成本、报复风险、外力介入的担忧和对合作收益的期许则是冲突双方放弃对抗与停止战争的重要考量因素，战争的最终走向取决于国家对石油收益与战争成本的综合权衡。石油因素在中东战争中的两种作用，体现在利比亚与乍得战争、两伊战争等催化案例，以及巴林与卡塔尔的哈瓦群岛领土争端、埃及与以色列的“六日战争”、海湾战争的抑制案例之中。鉴此，在全球能源转型和军事技术变革的今天，围绕中东石油资源控制权爆发冲突的频率是不确定的，但国家为获取该地石油资源而发动大规模战争的概率不大。未来，发动石油战争成本的边际化、石油产业相互依赖的常态化和域外大国协调机制的制度化，将有效避免利益相关方因中东石油资源而陷入“石油战争神话”的话语窠臼。     

减少和管理中美在网络空间的冲突

中美两国均把对方视为追求网络空间国家利益的一个重要竞争者.面对分歧及双方国内媒体围绕网络战充斥的夸大言论,两国决策者无意让网络问题导致双边关系脱离正轨.2015年9月,习近平主席和奥巴马总统的首脑会晤就网络安全达成了突破性协议,①为缓解未来冲突提供了一个机制,协议也成为未来国际社会讨论网络安全问题的一个典范.     

言语习惯与安全困境:超越物质主义与理性主义的思考

在国际无政府状态下,追求安全的行为体往往陷入"安全困境"的悲剧。国际关系文献强调,理性行为体为了保障物质安全而采取的物质行为最终导致自身安全的下降,这种物质主义和理性主义理论却不足以解释国际关系现实。一方面,行为体之间的冲突不能完全归咎于物质因素,也需要从非物质因素,如从言语行为中寻找原因;另一方面,行为体的行为有很大一部分源自习惯,而非有意识的理性。因此,文章试图超越物质主义和理性主义理论框架,从言语习惯的角度探究安全困境的形成机制,指出旨在寻求安全的行为体会形成特定的言语习惯,而按照言语习惯说话行事却容易使其他行为体感到不安全并采取措施加以应对,最终导致行为体自身安全的恶化,文章以冷战为例说明言语习惯如何导致美苏陷入安全困境,强调言语习惯的存在和作用,不仅可以丰富安全困境研究,还可以促使行为体反思、改变和建构自己和他人的言语习惯,以期化解安全困境及构建安全共同体。     

族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

基于两个分析性的创新：对社会事实秉持以机制为基础的理解路径和对动态交互影响的强调,作者提出了一个有关族群战争爆发的广义理论,并利用两种元机制——安全困境/螺旋模型和群体间–群体内互动——作为“元综合器”,将战争的影响因素与冲突行为的直接驱动力联系起来,对散布在现有文献中的众多因素和机制加以综合,形成了一个更具整合性且动态的族群战争理论。该理论不但整合了既有文献中已经识别的众多因素和机制,而且揭示了先前被隐藏或被忽视的因素、互动和机制,由此指明未来在这些方向的探究将是硕果累累。     

实力转变理论述评

本文分析了实力转变理论的范式、概念、逻辑,指出这一理论的核心观点是,对现存国际秩序不满的大国,通过工业化和经济社会变革,逐步缩小与主导国家的实力差距乃至双方实力大体持平,从而对战争成本—收益的考量发生变化,很有可能发动战争来改变现存的国际秩序.实力的转变过程包含了挑战国实力从弱到强的转变,以及挑战国和主导国相对实力的转变两个方面.这一理论在不存在核威慑、国际秩序零和性较强的条件下具有比较强的解释力.但是,实力转变理论也面对着一些难题,例如如何评估国家实力、战争发生的时间点以及如何评估核均势对于实力接近的意义等.同时,该理论自身存在两个逻辑缺陷,即想当然地认为最强国一定就是国际秩序的主导者;以及有能力挑战主导国的大国很自然地会对现存国际秩序不满,而没有看到国际秩序自身性质的改变.     

当代国际冲突中的宗教因素

宗教文化的对立与冲突是冷战后国际和地区冲突的焦点之一 ,具体表现为宗教因素引发民族冲突与地区冲突 ,以及宗教极端主义与国际恐怖主义的结合破坏世界和平。但是 ,宗教冲突决非纯粹的宗教战争 ,宗教冲突的真正根源在于政治与经济之间的矛盾运动 ,在于各种政治集团和社会力量围绕利益问题所做的争夺。注重宗教因素与国际冲突的关联 ,客观分析其间的互动规律 ,并由此制定相应的文化策略 ,应该成为国际问题研究和宗教问题研究的共识     

国际资本对日俄战争的影响

日俄战争充分反映了国际资本势力向外扩张过程中的激烈争夺程度,战争双方均得到不同国家资本势力的支持和同情,从而使其具有强烈的国际色彩。日俄战前,两国仍处于资本阵营中的"二流地位"。因此,两国发生大型军事冲突时,仅仅依靠其本国的经济力量很难支撑长期的战争,这就为其他外国资本势力影响日俄战争提供了机会。在战争过程中及其和平谈判问题上,国际资本势力的运作都对日俄战争产生了重要影响。     

中美对非政策的冲突性与互补性

2000年以来,中国和美国对非洲的贸易、投资及援助等均不断增加.但是,中美在非洲没有寻求互补、互敬、互利的合作模式,而是互相指责对方在非洲的行为.同时,中美对非政策的差异性也日趋明显.两国在非洲的冲突主要体现为意识形态斗争和认知上的战略冲突.中美两国在非洲的存在实际上是互补、互利的,都有益于非洲的发展,双方理应加强对话,增进合作.     

俄格军事冲突的国际影响

2008年8月7日，俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚因南奥赛梯争端爆发军事冲突。虽然这场战争因双方实力相差悬殊只打了短短的五天，冲突地点也被限定在格鲁吉亚境内。但其影响已远远超过两国、超过高加索地区，并对整个前苏联边界地带乃至整个国际体系都产生了重大冲击。     

The Development of EU-Russian Relations

The EU＇s strategy for Russia since the end of the cold war has to a large extent failed, and the direct consequences are the currently deadlocked EU-Russia relationship. There are three reasons for this： the EU and Russia＇s respective strength and status relative to each other have been changing since the beginning of this century; the EU＇s strategy towards Russia has been more fragmenting in recently years; and the American factor. The EU-Russia relations could continue to be in poor shape in the years to come, and it is very likely sometimes even further worsening. But the two sides would refrain from extreme measures and prevent their relations from sliding into real cold war.     

Young American China Watchers＇ Views on China

In this paper, the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers. Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background, education, and views over China. At the end of the paper, the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.     

The Balance Between Coercion and Accommodation

1. Introduction
On the morning of April 1st, 2001, a U.S. EP-3 surveillance aircraft was conducting an intelligence flight along the Chinese territorial border in the airspace south-east of China＇s Hainan Island. Two Chinese fighter jets intercepted the spy plane and followed its flight, as is considered ordinary international practice. For reasons unknown, the EP-3 airplane made a sudden maneuver and crashed into one of the Chinese planes. The Chinese plane dropped into the sea, the pilot missing. The U.S. spy plane was also severely damaged. It intruded into Chinese territorial space and landed on Hainan Island without official permission from the Chinese side. After landing, the spy plane and 24 crew on board were detained by the Chinese authorities. This air collision episode was the first of its kind in the China-U.S. relations and an urgent diplomatic crisis ensued.     

U.S. and East Asian Integration

the U.S. is directly impacting on the future of the East Asian community. Therefore, finding ways to get along with the U.S. is crucial to the speed, direction, configuration and character of the East Asian community. In this paper, the author has analyzed the interests of the United States in East Asia and its stands towards the East Asian integration. The author concludes that it is to the interest of the United States to make more efforts to further join in the East Asian integration. And East Asia should accept and welcome the American participation.     

CAFIU Honorary Vice-President Wang Zhizhen Visited Turkey,Sudan and Attended the Third China-Africa People's Forum

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CAFIU Delegation Visited Sri Lanka and Attended the Third China-Africa People's Forum in Sudan

正At the invitation of Sri Lanka-China Friendship Association(SLCFA)and Sudan Network for National Non-Governmental Organizations,a 5-member delegation led by CAFIU Deputy Secretary-General Liu Kaiyang visited Sri Lanka and attended the Third China-Africa People’s Forum held in Sudan from May 7 to 14,2014.As a member of this delegation,I had the great honor     

South Asian NGO Delegation Visiting China

正At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU),a 10-member NGO delegation composed of representatives from media,think tanks and NGOs from Bangladesh,India and Sri Lanka visited China from April 9 to 18.On the second day of arrival,the delegation visited Xicheng District Administrative Service Center.The center provides such services as     

Building A Platform for Understanding and Establishing Channels for Cooperation——Notes on the 2014 “Understanding & Cooperation” Dialogue

正From June 16 to 18,the 2014"UnderstandingCooperation"Dialogue and Forum on Rethinking Asia,co-hosted by CAFIU and FES and jointly organized with China Foundation for Peace and Development,was held in Tutzing,a beautiful and spacious manor located at 30km southwest of Munich.Nearly 60 delegates from more than 10Asian and European countries participated in the event,including China,Germany,Korea,Japan,     

The Second Sino-US Maritime Security Workshop Held in CIIS

正On September 25-26,2014,CIIS and Hoover Institution,Stanford University jointly held the Second Sino-US Maritime Security Workshop in Beijing.CIIS President Qu Xing and Abraham Sofall,senior research fellow with the Hoover Institution,codelivered the opening remarks.Representatives from China's Ministry of National Defense,     

俄白哈关税同盟的发展及其影响（英文）

In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Community has developed rapidly. Because of the special relationship between the SCO and the Customs Because Customs Union, the latter will inevitably exert some influence on the development of the former, but they are not fundamentally contradictory. Since the of the establishment of the Customs Union, the trade between China and the Customs Union members grows steadily.