Population: a new approach

Questionable assumptions are the basis of the prevailing view on population. It is assumed that rapid population growth is responsible for slums, pollution, poverty, unemployment, and underdevelopment, yet these asserted relationships have no proven scientific basis. Even rapid rates of population growth are not necessarily obstacles to economic development, but the present international economic policies of rich countries are. It also is claimed that population control programs are no substitute for other development assistance, but funds have skyrocketed and agencies mushroomed in the population field, while other development assistance has decreased. The world's economic system functions on the basis of producing short term profit for a few. Under this system, production is inevitably directed towards creating an artificial demand for increasingly useless objects, rather than meeting basic human needs. This leads in turn to wasteful methods of production which seriously harm the environment. The poor nations are essentially relegated to the role of purveyors of raw materials. Such industries as are set up are usually capital-intensive and based on Western technology, rather than labor-intensive. This impairs the ability of these nations to provide full employment and social services would would otherwise lead to lower fertility levels. Current efforts to influence birthrates are directed towards changing people's reproductive behavior. There is little reference to the social and economic factors which determine family size. Yet, it is these factors which will have to be influenced if family size is to be substantially altered. Family planning should be freely available to all, but it is the type of society which will actually determine whether or not people use family planning. The mose effective way to alter population variables is to alter societies so that their people have some hope in the future.     

Reflections on innovation,assessment, and social change: a SPARC case study

This article challenges the terms on which donor agencies evaluate development success, drawing on a particular case to make its point. It describes the resettlement of 60,000 people squatting along the railway tracks in Mumbai, a process planned and carried out by a federation of the railway dwellers themselves, with support from the NGO SPARC (the Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres). The article argues that this effort, which met donor criteria for a successful project, was the tip of an iceberg. Without an appreciation of the years of learning and innovation that preceded it, and the underpinning of principles and relationships built up over many years, this achievement cannot be adequately assessed or understood – and certainly not replicated. Yet in the world of formal assessment and evaluation, there tends to be a lack of interest in the deeper learning about social change that makes such success stories possible.     

Oxford exploding spires

Barbara Ward in her keynote address to the Conference on Exploding Cities, held in Oxford England, made the point that the current problems of the cities can only worsen as the world's population doubles by the year 2000 and the worst hit will be the cities of the developing nations. Between 1950 and 2000 urban populations will rise from 500 million to 1000 million, but the equivalent rise in the 3rd world will be from 500 million to 2200 million. The Conference was more successful in identifying the problems and their causes than in proposing solutions. The inadequacy of urban transport was emphasized repeatedly. Crime emerges as another urban headache. Pollution was another popular theme, and shanties were thoroughly examined. Positive proposals too often took the form of self-evident truths. In all cases the message is clear: the 1st prerequisite to urban planning is central control and, if necessary, public ownership of land. A succession of speakers advocated more self-help for the communities which have emerged on the periphery of so many urban centers. Elizabeth Jelin, from Buenos Aires, argued that these communities -- and shanty towns are the most obvious manifestation -- should no longer be viewed as marginal. They perform essential services, especially in terms of employment, and cannot be moved without severe disruption. Self-help was the beacon held up to delegates, despite the warnings that it would lead to complacency on the part of authorities.     

Climate Change and Security at the Third Pole

The consequences of global climate change present a serious strategic challenge in one of the most remote parts of the world.The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high-altitude landmass on earth,with more than 45,000 glaciers that feed the major river systems in Asia,which,in turn,support 40 per cent of the world’s population.Temperatures in the region are rising twice as fast as the global average,posing serious risks to hydrological systems,agriculture,and critical infrastructure.Looking at regional cooperation through the lens of ecological security raises important questions about the extent to which the threat of large-scale climate-related disaster could trigger new forms of cooperative action.The sobering reality is that current responses fall far short of ensuring a mutually secure future.     

Cities and sustainability: Southeast Asian and European perspectives

While cities are considered to be inherently unsustainable, these urban human settlements will be where a majority of the population will be living in the next two to three decades. Among the ten largest cities in the world in terms of population sizes, three are in Southeast Asia alone and more than one in two people will be living in cities in 2025. These primate cities—Metro-Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Bangkok in Thailand—are seeing not only rapid rates of in-migration but also rapid expansion and urban sprawl. Such rapid rates of change pose growing challenges to Southeast Asian cities including smaller capital cities like Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City and Singapore. The strongest challenge concern infrastructural provision and particularly that provided for urban transport and mobility. Urban traffic congestion is an issue that is common to most Southeast Asian cities including Singapore which has introduced relatively draconian policy measures to both contain the level of car ownership and the use of the car. A comparison with several European cities highlight where Southeast Asian cities can review their own urban transport policies. This paper focuses on the lessons that can be learnt from a comparative study of the infrastructural provision and public policies that are in place in Southeast Asian and European cities.     

暴力方式与民心向背：寻找治理族群叛乱的条件组合

治理族群叛乱的目标既包括土地的控制，也包括人的控制，这是治理族群叛乱区别于其他形式叛乱的特点之一。人的控制实际包含两个内容，既包括人心向背，也包括人员数量的控制。人心向背关乎民众支持，而争取民众支持的必要性在于，虽然拥有民众支持并不必然导致叛乱的平息，但是没有民众支持是不能平息叛乱的。在族群叛乱已经发生的情况下，国家政府只有赢得更多当地民众的支持，才能成功治理叛乱。根据冲突各方的暴力行为方式及其对当地民众支持的影响，成功平息叛乱应具备国家政府有区别使用暴力、叛乱组织无区别使用暴力、当地温和派主导平叛行动等三个必要条件，以争取更多民众支持。这三个条件构成的条件组合，可以有效控制和减少叛乱组织能够招募到的人员数量，只要国家政府的平叛战略能够有效控制叛乱组织所招募的叛乱人员数量，叛乱组织就将走向衰败并最终消亡，也就是说这一条件组合能够成为国家政府成功平叛的一个充分条件。通过对结合俄罗斯、印度和西班牙等国家治理族群叛乱的经验和教训的分析，进一步证实了以上观点。     

Eisenhower's disarmament dilemma: From chance for peace to open skies proposal

President Eisenhower's image as a promoter of 'peace and nuclear disarmament' was established through speeches he made such as 'Atoms for Peace' (December 1953) and 'Open Skies' proposal (July 1955). However, Eisenhower's approach to the subject cannot be grasped without an understanding of his attitude towards the relationship between arms, war and disarmament. As he saw it, not only would the mere existence of nuclear weapons not trigger a war, they were actually the best guarantee against the eruption of a global conflagration. The real threat to world security was the repressive, closed, totalitarian and expansionist Soviet regime. War could be prevented only by a dramatic change in the competing - and threatening - ideology and social structure embedded in the Soviet system. Until then, the existence of nuclear weapons would ensure the free world's safety.     

Indonesia Returns to the International Stage: Good News for the United States

Indonesia, the world's fourth largest country, third largest democracy and home to the world's largest community of Muslims, has returned to the international stage. Indonesia's membership in a number of important global communities-it resides physically in Asia but is part of the broader Muslim world, the developing world, and the community of democracies-makes it an important international actor. Many Americans assume that common democratic values will translate into shared foreign policy goals and cooperation between the United States and Indonesia. The two countries do share significant interests, such as counter terrorism, maritime security, and a wariness of China, but also hold starkly different positions on the Middle East peace process and global trade issues. Democracy provides opportunities for the two-thirds of Indonesians who hold anti-American views to influence foreign policy, making it costly for Indonesian leaders to cooperate with the United States. Indonesia's return is good news for America, but the relationship needs to be managed skillfully to maximize benefits for both sides.     

缅甸若开邦“罗兴伽人”研究

罗兴伽问题目前成为国际社会关注缅甸的主要议题之一。但是,并没有多少人知道罗兴伽的历史。大多数人并不知道为什么罗兴伽人在极力地把他们的名字从孟加拉人改成罗兴伽人,以及罗兴伽这个名字是怎么出现的。英国殖民者占领若开邦之后,出于政治和经济目的带来了很多的孟加拉人。这是截至目前罗兴伽问题都尚未得到解决的缘起。1948年缅甸独立之后,由于议会政府采取了错误的政策,罗兴伽问题不仅没有得到解决,反而产生了更多的问题。稍后,一些国际组织也介入该问题。本文的写作主要是笔者在若开当地进行的田野调查、访谈和利用了一些原始文件基础上完成的。     

My Opinion of the Current World Security

What the current world is most concerned about is the situation of security.Without security,it is not to mention economic construction,nor peaceful development,nor people living and working in peace and contentment.Allcountries in the world are no exception in this regard.This article will deal briefly with the questions of whether the cur-rent world is secure,where the threats to the world security come from and how these threats are coped with.I.The current world is secure on the whole but…     

The emerging international system: Policy implications

The foreign policy‐making of individual nations is seen as greatly affected by the international system, whether the actors are aware of it or not. A bipolar system is seen as requiring centralization of decision‐making authority within the two great powers which define the system. Under the emerging system of “polyarchical multipolarity,” military power will remain bipolar but will no longer determine the form of other international activities. The economic system has already been decoupled from the military system. With intelligent planning, the same could be done with the energy system. The centralization of decision‐making authority is no longer adaptive under these conditions, for the complexity of the global situation cannot be handled by a limited number of people. Decentralization of decision‐making would make it possible to implement policies based on analysis and planning rather than a perceived need for immediate action.     

21世纪印度将成为世界大国

独立后特别是近年来,印度经济发展成就引人注目。作者认为,21世纪印度将成为一个世界大国,并将对世界经济、国际政治等产生十分重要的影响。     

Waste to wealth

We currently live in a world where depletion of resources is beyond control. The call for sustainable development both environmentally and economically is spelt out loud and clear. Hence, the current and future generations must ensure that all resources shall be preserved, fully utilized and well managed. Waste generation has been part and parcel of mankind’s pursuit for development, be it in social or economic activities. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is an example of socio-economic activities that entails with waste generation. Generation rates of MSW vary according to the economic and social standing of a country. This in return will also affect the management style of the MSW generated. Generally, the higher income countries generated more waste, recycle more and have the money to employ new technology to treat their waste. As for the lower income countries, the waste generated is more organic in nature, which calls for lesser recycling, whereas disposal is by open dumping. The effects of this naturally would mean that in the lower income countries pollution to the water and air is huge as compare to the more developed countries. However on the other hand, does waste alone generate harmful gasses that pollute the world or does manufacturing, transportation and power production, which is rampant in the more industrialized countries contributing more towards pollution? This subject is argumentative and could be discussed at length. However, the environment cannot wait for the population to debate on the above matter. Action needs to be taken in a world where economic power determines the treatment method. Hence, the idea of recovering all ‘wealth’ in the waste is essential to ensure that even the poorest countries could benefit from all waste management technologies. For this to work, recycling, reuse and recovery of energy is essential in an integrated approach towards waste management. This would also mean that many environmental disasters could be avoided. However, an even more pertinent matter to be advocated is that do we need to generate so much waste or are we generating too much waste? Many technology managers are working towards ‘Zero Waste’ these days but how far away is it?     

后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

Confronting a Powerful China with Western Characteristics

The rapid rise of Chinese economic and military power has produced the most fundamental change in the global system since the end of the Cold War, and it poses vital questions about China's future direction. Many Western analysts argue that China's great power will cause it to become more like the West, i.e., like Western great powers. Other Western analysts believe that China will continue to be the same, i.e., like the China of the past few decades. An alternative interpretation, however, is that China's new power will enable it to become even more Chinese than it is now, i.e., to become more like the traditional and imperial China that existed before the Western intrusions of the 19th century. This China was the “Central State” of a distinctive Chinese world order, operating with distinctive conceptions about diplomatic relations, military strategy, and economic exchange. However, the new China will be unlike the old China in at least two important ways. It will be a naval, and not just a land, power, and it will be a financial, and not just a trading, power. In other words, it will be a powerful China with Western characteristics. As a formidable naval and financial power, China will present fundamental challenges to the United States and to both the long-standing U.S. security order in the Western Pacific and the long-standing “Washington Consensus” about the global economic order.     

当前国际格局的演变和我国外交工作

国际金融危机导致国际格局深刻演变。世界多极化和经济全球化强劲发展,国际力量均衡化、国际秩序合理化趋势深入推进,国际思想领域进入深刻反思期和活跃建构期。但世界力量格局北强南弱的局面仍将长期存在,多极化发展仍然是一个长期曲折过程。我国在十一五时期外交大有作为,加速进入世界舞台的显著位置。十二五时期恰逢世界进入后危机时代,我国面临的历史机遇和严峻挑战并存,机遇仍大于挑战。外交工作宜牢牢抓住为发展服务的主线,为我国经济社会长期平稳、较快发展创造有利的外部条件,实现在新时期的新发展、新跨越。     

Some Thoughts on ＂Harmonious Globalization＂

This article argues that ＂Harmonious Globalization＂ offers a platform for harmonizing the positive and negative aspects of the current U.S.-led economic globalization that reflects the objective laws of human development. The article attempts to chart the path ahead for the world economy in the context of economic globalization, pervasive poverty/inequality, the resultant worldwide political awakening, the degradation of global ecosystems, and the current turmoil in financial institutions. The global challenge ahead will be three-fold： to bring the excluded 1/3 of the world＇s population into the open trade system; to encourage emerging markets like China and India to carry on with open policies and to persuade the developed Western nations to adhere to an open trade system and resist the temptations of trade protectionism. Free market access should be offered to those marginalized countries, the so-called ＂failed or failing states＂ that have been excluded from and angered by the globalization process. The growth in prosperity of these nations will open up a vast potential market for the world.     

The Friendly Media Phenomenon: A Cross-National Analysis of Cross-Cutting Exposure

We hypothesize that in the real world, as opposed to the lab, the norm is for people to experience friendly media that favor their political predispositions when political favoritism is perceived at all. For this reason, media are generally limited in their ability to create cross-cutting exposure. We test this hypothesis using representative survey data drawn from 11 different countries with varying media systems. We further hypothesize that television will contribute more to cross-cutting exposure than newspapers. Finally, and most importantly, we test the hypothesis that the more the structure of a country's media system parallels that of its political parties, the more that country's population will be dominated by exposure to like-minded views via mass media. We find confirmation for all 3 of these hypotheses and discuss their implications for the role of mass media in providing exposure to cross-cutting political perspectives.     

Why State Subsidies? Evidence from European Community Countries, 1981–1986

In this article I seek to explain why European Community members subsidized a substantial portion of their economies in the period 1981–1986. I test three competing explanations: socioeconomic, party control, and world markets. Parties have an impact on overall state subsidies and loans, but trade deficits are most influential in the disbursement of direct budget outlays and tax incentives. Unemployment has no effect on subsidies. The differential responsiveness to trade and parties is likely to frustrate efforts toward greater European integration.     

Will science and technology undermine the international political system?

The framework, actors and issues of international politics havechanged as a result of the massive effects of advances in scienceand technology, but the fundamental principles and organizationof the international system have not been substantially altered.Science and technology are no more or less subversive of theinternational political system than are other pressures forchange. Rather, the nation-state structure, with all its problems,will be essential to manage this increasingly complex and interdependentworld. The policy processes within nations, in fact, rarelyallow scientific and technological factors to dominate policy,even in international issues in which those aspects are clearlycentral, might be thought to be the overwhelming considerations,and might have been expected to overturn traditional patternsin the international system. With climate change as the primaryexample, it is seen how and why economic, political and socialconsiderations dominate, not the scientific and technological.