Proactive Policing: a Summary of the Report of the National Academies of Sciences,Engineering, and Medicine

This paper provides a summary of our report for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on proactive policing. We find that there is sufficient scientific evidence to support the adoption of many proactive policing practices if the primary goal is to reduce crime, though the evidence base generally does not provide long-term or jurisdictional estimates. In turn, we conclude that crime prevention outcomes can often be obtained without producing negative community reactions. However, the most effective proactive policing strategies do not appear to have strong positive impacts on citizen perceptions of the police. At the same time, some community-based strategies have begun to show evidence of improving the relations between the police and public. We conclude that there are likely to be large racial disparities in the volume and nature of police–citizen encounters when police target high-risk people or high-risk places, as is common in many proactive policing programs. We could not conclude whether such disparities are due to statistical prediction, racial animus, implicit bias, or other causes.

     

Managing Police Patrol Time: The Role of Supervisor Directives

Contemporary police practice advocates the importance of proactive policing activities. Proactive policing reforms emphasize self‐initiated tasks during unassigned patrol time and directed activities based on supervisor review of crime analysis and problem identification. Our study analyzes data from systematic social observations of police patrol officers to examine how officers spent their discretionary time. We find that, on average, over three quarters of a patrol officers’ shift is unassigned. During this time, officers primarily self‐initiate routine patrol, or back up other officers on calls to which they were not dispatched. Just 6 percent of unassigned time activities are directed by supervising officers, dispatchers, other officers or citizens. Moreover, directives provided by supervisors are vague, general in form, and do not operationalize problem‐oriented policing, community‐oriented policing, or proactive policing strategies. We conclude that first, a very significant proportion of patrol officer time is spent uncommitted that could be better utilized doing proactive, problem‐oriented policing activities, and second, supervisors need to provide patrol officers with much more detailed directives, based on sound crime analysis, to help capitalize on the under‐utilization of patrol officer time.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

Not ‘Islands,Entire of Themselves’: Exploring the Spatial Context of City-level Robbery Rates

The current study examines spatial dependence in robbery rates for a sample of 1,056 cities with 25,000 or more residents over the 2000–2003 period. Although commonly considered in some macro-level research, spatial processes have not been examined in relation to city-level variation in robbery. The results of our regression analyses suggest that city robbery rates are not spatially independent. We find that spatial dependence is better accounted for by spatial error models than by spatial lag models. Further exploration of various spatial weights matrices indicates that robbery rates of cities within the same state are related to robbery rates of other cities within the same state, regardless of their proximity. Our analyses illustrate how systematic inquiry into spatial processes can alert researchers to important omitted variable biases and identify intriguing problems for future research.

CAN HOT SPOTS POLICING REDUCE CRIME IN URBAN AREAS? AN AGENT‐BASED SIMULATION*

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing consensus among researchers that hot spots policing is an effective strategy to prevent crime. Although strong evidence exists that hot spots policing will reduce crime at hot spots without immediate spatial displacement, we know little about its possible jurisdictional or large‐area impacts. We cannot isolate such effects in previous experiments because they (appropriately) compare treatment and control hot spots within large urban communities, thus, confounding estimates of area‐wide impacts. An agent‐based model is used to estimate area‐wide impacts of hot spots policing on street robbery. We test two implementations of hot spots policing (representing different levels of resource allocation) in a simulated borough of a city, and we compare them with two control conditions, one model with constant random patrol and another with no police officers. Our models estimate the short‐ and long‐term impacts on large‐area robbery levels of these different schemes of policing resources. These experiments reveal statistically significant effects for hot spots policing beyond both a random patrol model and a landscape without police. These simulations suggest that wider application of hot spots policing can have significant impacts on overall levels of crime in urban areas.     

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

IMMIGRATION AND THE RECENT VIOLENT CRIME DROP IN THE UNITED STATES: A POOLED,CROSS‐SECTIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN AREAS*

A good deal of research in recent years has revisited the relationship between immigration and violent crime. Various scholars have suggested that, contrary to the claims of the classic Chicago School, large immigrant populations might be associated with lower rather than higher rates of criminal violence. A limitation of the research in this area is that it has been based largely on cross‐sectional analyses for a restricted range of geographic areas. Using time‐series techniques and annual data for metropolitan areas over the 1994–2004 period, we assess the impact of changes in immigration on changes in violent crime rates. The findings of multivariate analyses indicate that violent crime rates tended to decrease as metropolitan areas experienced gains in their concentration of immigrants. This inverse relationship is especially robust for the offense of robbery. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that the broad reductions in violent crime during recent years are partially attributable to increases in immigration.     

Cashlessness and Street Crime: A Cross-national Study of Direct Deposit Payment and Robbery Rates

Substantial variation in national crime rates suggests social structure and cultural context influence offending and victimization. Several prominent criminological theories anticipate a positive association between the prevalence of cash in a society and its rates of pecuniary crime. We examined the association between one form of “cashlessness” and national robbery rates across nations (n = 67), controlling for several structural covariates of national crime rates. We obtained data on robbery from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and data on government-based cashlessness from the Global Financial Inclusion Database. We found nations with higher levels of government-based cashlessness had lower robbery rates (β = ?.41, p = .02). We also undertook several sensitivity analyses, including tests for a relationship with commercial cashlessness and for crimes like homicide and burglary. Our results suggest technological advancements that reduce cash in a society may have implications for a nation’s robbery rates.     

Translating police research into policy: some implications of the National Academies report on proactive policing for policymakers and researchers

ABSTRACT

In February 2018, the U.S. Committee on Proactive Policing published its report on the evidence regarding the effects of different forms of proactive policing, particularly on crime and disorder. In this essay, we explore three obstacles to evidence-based policymaking in policing, some of which were raised by the Committee, but we take occasion to develop here: (1) the mistrust of science; (2) the paucity of cost-efficiency analyses; and (3) the challenge of managing competing values. For each of these we describe the nature of the problem before identifying some possibilities for mitigating or overcoming it. Our goals are two-fold: (1) to provide some considerations that police leaders might take into account when making decisions about proactive policing; and (2) to illuminate avenues for future research.     

Does police patrol in large areas prevent crime? Revisiting the Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment

Research Summary

The Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment (KCPPE) was seen by its developers to have produced “consistent evidence of the lack of effects of any consequence on crime,” a conclusion that was to have a strong impact on assumptions about police patrol for almost half a century. We identified the original official crime data from the KCPPE, and reanalyzed outcomes focusing on a comparison of the “proactive” versus “control” beats (“reactive beats” were criticized because of violations of treatment integrity); examining broad categories of crime (to increase statistical power); and using count regression models. Our findings are not unequivocal, but point to modest impacts of police patrol on crime in police beats.

Policy Implications

Our findings suggest that lessons drawn for half a century from the KCPPE need to be revisited. The KCPPE does not show that police patrol in large areas has no influence on crime, and this finding is consistent with several more recent studies. At the same time, we note that the effects of patrol in the KCPPE using our analysis strategy, and those found in other studies of preventive patrol in larger areas, are about half that found in hot spots policing studies. This suggests that police agencies ideally should invest in focused hot spots policing initiatives. However, absent an ability to manage such initiatives, or the crime analysis capabilities to identify crime hot spots routinely, simpler preventive patrol schemes to utilize uncommitted patrol time can be seen as potentially effective in preventing crime.     

The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003-2010

New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduction effects of SQF is limited in important respects. We seek to overcome many of these limitations in a study of SQF effects on yearly precinct-level robbery and burglary rates in New York between 2003 and 2010. Contrary to prior research, the study reveals few effects of SQF on robbery and burglary. We caution against drawing definitive conclusions from both the current and prior research and recommend that future research address both the impact of SQF on crime and possible collateral effects on the rights and liberties of citizens in the communities most affected by the policy.     

The Evidence-Based Policing Matrix

The next phase of evidence-based policing requires both scholars and practitioners to move from lists of specific studies about “what works” to using that information strategically. This requires developing generalizations or principles on the nature of effective police strategies and translating the field of police evaluation research into digestible forms that can be used to alter police tactics, strategies, accountability systems, and training. In this article, we present a tool intended for such use: the Evidence-Based Policing Matrix. The Matrix is a consistently updated, research-to-practice translation tool that categorizes and visually bins all experimental and quasi-experimental research on police and crime reduction into intersections between three common dimensions of crime prevention—the nature of the target, the extent to which the strategy is proactive or reactive, and the specificity or generality of the strategy. Our mapping and visualization of 97 police evaluation studies conducted through December 31, 2009, indicate that proactive, place-based, and specific policing approaches appear much more promising in reducing crime than individual-based, reactive, and general ones. We conclude by discussing how the Matrix can be used to guide future research and facilitate the adoption of evidence-based policing.     

INTERGROUP AND INTRAGROUP VIOLENCE: IS VIOLENT CRIME AN EXPRESSION OF GROUP CONFLICT OR SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION?*

The impact of residential turnover and compositional change at the neighborhood level on local patterns of crime lies at the center of most ecological studies of crime and violence. Of particular interest is how racial and ethnic change impacts intragroup and intergroup crime. Although many studies have examined this effect using city‐level data, few have evaluated it using neighborhood‐level data. Using incident‐level data for the South Bureau Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department aggregated to census tracts, we use a novel methodology to construct intragroup and intergroup rates of robbery and assaults. The South Bureau has experienced dramatic demographic change as it has transitioned from a predominately African‐American area to a predominately Latino area. We find support for the social disorganization model, as racial/ethnic transition in nearby tracts leads to greater levels of intergroup violence by both groups as well as to more intragroup violence by Latinos. Such neighborhoods seem to experience a breakdown in norms, which leads to higher levels of violence in all forms. Particularly noteworthy is that intragroup crime is highest in all settings, which includes the most heterogeneous tracts. We also find support for the consolidated inequality theory, as greater inequality across the two groups leads to more violence by the disadvantaged group.     

Optimal patrol routes: interdicting and pursuing rhino poachers

Interdiction patrolling (also known as hot spots policing) is a proactive police operation that depends on good planning. And the pursuit of fleeing suspects is a challenging operation that all police forces engage in on a regular basis. We give software tools that improve the effectiveness of both. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tools by applying them to the case of rhino poaching in wildlife reserves. An interdiction patrol pre-emptively seeks out poaching parties within a reserve. Upon picking up the trail of a poaching party, a pursuit team needs a pursuit strategy that optimizes their chances of an interception. Our interdiction patrol route tool identifies optimal interdiction patrol routes to walk. This tool is based on a Stackelberg game and represents different types of poachers and their utilities. These utilities are updated (learned) each time new information on poaching party routes is added to the database. Our second tool provides a real-time sequence of team member moves that maximizes the team’s chances of apprehending a pursued party. We show that our tools perform well when applied to simulated and real data.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

Ten key developments in modern policing: an Australian perspective

In this paper we endeavour to isolate the top ten innovations and developments that have occurred in policing in the last thirty years. We consider that each of them brought about a new mindset, pattern or trend into contemporary police practice. We have focused our attention on the last thirty years because it is during this time that we have both maintained a keen academic interest in the field. While we have focused our attention on the way in which each has affected Australian policing, we are cognisant of the fact that many of them had their roots in other settings long before Australian policy-makers adopted or adapted them.     

BODY‐WORN CAMERAS AS A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF DEPOLICING: TESTING FOR CAMERA‐INDUCED PASSIVITY

Contentious debate is currently taking place regarding the extent to which public scrutiny of the police post‐Ferguson has led to depolicing or to a decrease in proactive police work. Advocates of the “Ferguson effect” claim the decline in proactive policing increased violent crime and assaults on the police. Although police body‐worn cameras (BWCs) are touted as a police reform that can generate numerous benefits, they also represent a form of internal and public surveillance on the police. The surveillance aspect of BWCs suggests that BWCs may generate depolicing through camera‐induced passivity. We test this question with data from a randomized controlled trial of BWCs in Spokane (WA) by assessing the impact of BWCs on four measures: officer‐initiated calls, arrests, response time, and time on scene. We employ hierarchical linear and cross‐classified models to test for between‐ and within‐group differences in outcomes before and after the randomized BWC rollout. Our results demonstrate no evidence of statistically significant camera‐induced passivity across any of the four outcomes. In fact, self‐initiated calls increased for officers assigned to treatment during the RCT. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of the findings for the ongoing dialogue in policing.     

Preparing individuals for leadership in Australasia,the United States,and the UK

ABSTRACT

Much is said about the importance of leadership in policing. In policing leadership is a key variable in organisational effectiveness, public confidence and employee well-being. We demand that our police leaders are ethical, decisive, skilled, and have the internal and external legitimacy needed to exert influence inside and outside the workplace. There are many advantages to such a pipeline approach to organisational leadership, and it presents organisations with an unparalleled opportunity to develop leaders and leadership talent over an extended period. There are questions, of course, about how much advantage our police organisations really take of this opportunity; how coherently leader development is planned and organised; and how effective our development models are. In this paper, we explore leader development in Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Drawing on data collected through semi-structured interviews with established senior police leaders in each country we explore development journeys, opportunities for learning inside and outside of policing, the impact of leader development on leadership-style and decision-making, and how well-prepared leaders feel for their roles having transited their organisational pipelines. Drawing on these data we present a model for leadership development that calls for individual and organisational work. By seeing leadership in terms of organisation capacity, rather than individual capacity, the model encourages a comprehensive and more cohesive approach through police education and other initiatives to developing our organisational leaders, and recognises too that preparing individuals is only part of the story.     

Procedural Justice and Order Maintenance Policing: A Study of Inner‐City Young Men’s Perceptions of Police Legitimacy

There is tension between the core tenets of procedural justice and those of order maintenance policing. Research has shown that citizens’ perceptions of procedural justice influence their beliefs about police legitimacy, yet at the same time, some order maintenance policing efforts stress frequent stops of vehicles and persons for suspected disorderly behavior. These types of programs can threaten citizens’ perceptions of police legitimacy because the targeted offenses are minor and are often not well‐defined. Citizens stopped for low‐level offenses may view such stops as a form of harassment, as they may not believe they were doing anything to warrant police scrutiny. This paper examines young men’s self‐described experiences with this style of proactive policing. Study findings highlight that order maintenance policing strategies have negative implications for police legitimacy and crime control efforts via their potential to damage citizens’ views of procedural justice.