中美欧三边关系结构变化及其发展前景

中国、美国和欧盟构成了当前全球政治发展变化中最重要的三边关系。世界变局深度发展,全球权势扩散趋势加速演进,一个伴生性结果就是中美欧三边关系的重要性日益凸显,并且形成三边复杂的利益交汇。随着全球性、跨国性问题和挑战日趋严峻,国际社会迫切需要推进和强化有效的全球治理,构建更为包容开放的多边制度体系,这尤其离不开中美欧作用的发挥,也必然推动中美欧三边关系的不断进化。中国的战略选择对中美欧三边关系的未来具有至为关键的作用。针对美国将中国排挤出其主导的国际体系的企图,须保持思想和战略上的冷静,要以更大决心和更有力的举措深化与欧盟和其他主要力量的联系与合作,努力推动中美关系回归基本稳定并迫使美国对华政策做出积极调整,争取欧盟发挥更多的建设性作用,促使中美欧三边关系真正实现向典型的三角关系转换,保障国际关系民主化取得重大进展。     

美欧"跨大西洋对话"及其对中国的影响

本文分析了以应对中国崛起为目的的美欧"跨大西洋对话",指出美欧在对华关系上的一致与分歧.文章认为,美欧"跨大西洋对话"是中美欧三边关系的晴雨表.在此三边关系中,美欧关系仍是最紧密的一组双边关系,中美欧之间尚存在较深的分歧与猜疑,而中美关系则一定意义上使中欧关系复杂化.美欧"跨大西洋对话"对中国及中美欧三边关系具有深刻影响.为了最大限度地发挥"跨大西洋对话"的积极影响,中国在处理对美、对欧关系问题时,就要着重加强中欧关系,并进而推动中美关系的发展.     

博弈论视角下的中、美、俄关系：新态势及运筹思路

近年来,中、美、俄关系呈现出一系列新态势,主要表现为三方力量对比、内外处境和国际大环境的变化上面。三国关系变化与国际大环境变化相互影响,导致大国关系及世界格局出现了新特点。展望未来,中国应正确认识中美俄关系的变化态势,既看到自身与美、俄两国的分歧,也要认识到与美、俄两国广阔的合作空间和众多的共同利益。在此基础上,中国从...     

俄罗斯、欧盟和美国在中东欧国家的竞争与合作

冷战结束后,随着世界多极化和经济全球化的不断发展,欧洲格局也进行着持续调整.俄罗斯在中东欧影响消退后,美国随即借由北约势力迅速东扩,同时欧盟也逐渐接纳了中东欧10个转型的前社会主义国家作为成员国.普京时代,俄也扩大了对其邻国影响力.由此,中东欧国际体系结构逐渐趋向多极化,出于对全球战略、地缘政治和经济利益的考虑,饿欧美三方在中东欧地区的利益格局变得愈加错综复杂,三方之间特别是俄与美欧之间的博弈频繁,与此同时,三方在博弈中也无法忽略中东欧国家的主体性.     

“双头鹰”将飞向何方?——《转型时代:俄罗斯与美欧关系研究》介评

最近,一部反映俄罗斯转型时代外交的新著<转型时代:俄罗斯与美欧关系研究> 由北京师范大学出版社出版.虽然目前国内研究俄美关系和阐述俄罗斯外交的著作很多,但是从总体上对俄罗斯与整个西方关系的研究、特别是对转型时代俄罗斯外交和国际关系做系统分析的研究却略显不足,对俄罗斯外交区域特色的深入研究则更少.美国和欧洲是在俄罗斯外交中占据极其重要地位的两个方向,俄罗斯在国际政治中的地位和作用在相当程度上取决于俄与美欧的关系.研究转型时代俄罗斯与美欧的关系,无疑具有深刻的理论意义和现实意义.     

认同危机与美欧关系的结构性变迁

冷战结束以来 ,美欧之间在世界观、安全观和治理观等方面的分野是造成当前美欧分歧的主要观念性成因。其直接结果和集中体现 ,是伴随着冷战后国际体系的结构性变迁而出现的美欧集体认同的危机。美欧各自的利己身份和集体身份的重新定位给传统的大西洋关系带来了革命性的冲击与变革。在大西洋关系结构性变迁的可能前景中 ,相比美欧分裂并对抗、美欧和解并合作而言 ,美欧形成新的既合作又竞争的平等关系 ,更具有现实性。     

"9·11"以后的俄美欧关系

"9·11"事件出乎意料地促成了俄美欧关系的靠近,但它们都抱有不同的目的,俄罗斯经济发展需要美欧的支持,所以,"9·11"事件正好成为俄与美欧改善关系的契机,欧洲希望借此机会,建立一个"完整"的欧洲,美国则从反恐需要出发,认为没有俄罗斯的支持,反恐战争是难以取胜的,所以,基于各自战略的考虑,俄美欧走到了一起.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

北约东扩、“特朗普新政”与俄欧安全新格局

北约东扩是影响俄罗斯与美欧关系以及未来欧洲安全格局的一个重要因素。北约东扩所引起的欧洲政治安全边界的改变、在欧洲地区部署的反导武器系统,以及最近所部署的相当规模的常规军事力量,这"三位一体"的进程不可能不引起重大争议。在2017年慕尼黑北约峰会上,美国开始逐渐摆脱"大选效应",重新表示支持与北约的盟友关系。但是,俄、欧、美三者之间的立场依然相互分殊,北约、俄罗斯和欧洲安全关系的前景依然扑朔迷离。今天的北约东扩是否会重蹈历史上西方扩张的覆辙:由一元主义的追求为起点,最后总是落得多元力量并存的结局,是一个值得作进一步观察的向度。     

世纪之交的美、欧、日关系新走向

在新的世纪来临之际 ,新的国际秩序正逐步形成。世界各国正加紧其战略调整 ,大国间的关系将在更高的层次和更广的范围里展开 ,尤其引人注目的是美、欧、日之间的关系在调整变化过程中出现的新特点 :既相竞争 ,更多的相互协调。     

20世纪末以来中、美与东盟的三边互动关系——以权力转移为视角

中国的崛起对美国和东盟均产生重大影响,导致中、美和东盟在经贸、政治和认知方面形成了互动关系。由于经济领域的区域经济一体化、贸易转移效应和政治领域东亚一体化的排斥效应等因素,中美在东亚的权力关系发生了转移,东亚秩序经历了结构性调整。三方在经贸、政治和认知的互动相互影响并呈正相关关系,使得东亚的权力转移在和平中实现。互动中仍存在一些问题需要三方调适和合作加以解决。     

习近平主席访韩与中韩成熟性战略关系发展构想

中国国家领导人习近平2014年7月访问韩国,以及中韩建立成熟的战略合作伙伴关系,标志着双方关系进入了一个新的高度。这种关系发展现在处于一种非常有利的时机与地区环境中,要确保这种关系成为真正的战略合作伙伴关系,双方领导人、学界、舆论界需要有一种超越朝鲜半岛的远见与远景,把动力、机遇转化为互利与可持续的合作进程。这种努力包括:在务实认识朝鲜无核化问题面临的困境基础上,寻找协调解决问题的中短期现实目标;积极协调与合理平衡中美韩、中日韩两组三边关系;严峻面对日本右倾化对东北亚地区秩序产生的战略危害,并共同采取应对措施;以战略性、客观性的胆识抓住中国"丝绸之路经济带"与"亚洲基础设施银行"的倡议,推动中韩在地区框架内的全方位经济合作。     

中美日三角关系在亚太:理论检视与前景展望

要展望某一种三角关系,首先要弄清楚这一三角关系的构成要件是什么,然后根据这些要件一一检视.本文将沿着这一思路,对中美日三角关系及其未来进行探讨.     

Diplomatic Objectives in Trade Politics: The Development of the China-Japan-Korea FTA

This article seeks to analyze the development of free trade agreement (FTA) policies adopted by China, Japan, and South Korea with particular interests in the trilateral FTA. It seeks to address what the determinant factors that have conditioned the development of the trilateral FTA are. While the three governments began the informal joint study of the trilateral FTA in 2003, they pursued diverse trade strategies that disturbed a shift to formal negotiations. However, China's strategy to hedge against the US influence in East Asia became a catalyst in shifting from the long-lasting study stage to the launching of negotiations. Moreover, Japan's strategy to participate in TPP negotiations as a soft balancing against China through closer political linkages with the United States weakened China's and South Korea's willingness to engage in the trilateral FTA positively. Thus, the three countries’ commitments to the trilateral FTA were primarily confined by their specific diplomatic objectives responding to the political-economic evolutions in the Asia-Pacific region.     

The role of international regimes in the formation and maintenance of Baltic environmental cooperation

Abstract

Since 1991, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have created a successful cooperative regime in the field of environmental protection. It is built up on international regime-like arrangements, based on bi- or trilateral agreements as well as on commonly accepted behavioural norms and rules. The article argues that such regular cooperation between the three Baltic countries has not sprung from merely their own interests, i.e. from the need to solve the existing problems with transboundary externalities and shared natural resources or to achieve major political goals more efficiently in collaboration than individually. The formation and maintenance of the trilateral cooperation can, to a large extent, be attributed to the influence of normative institutions called international regimes as well as individual members of the international community.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

The Potential of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement

This article explores the economic calculations behind the recent initiatives for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Governments of China, Japan and South Korea (CJK) and clarifies the implications for future regional economic integration. First, the proposed trilateral FTA signifies an advancement of China-centered regional economic integration. Regional economic integration led by China may also increase its political clout at the global stage. Second, the Governments of South Korea and Japan seek greater involvement in China's huge domestic market, but the former is concerned that a trilateral FTA will worsen its trade deficit with Japan, and the latter is afraid of losing its market shares in China and America to its Korean rival. Japan, therefore, seeks membership of both the CJK FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Third, China and the US' active involvement in regional economic integration will push the three countries to go forward towards greater economic cooperation. However, it will take longer for China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and America-led TPP to bear fruit because of the large number of countries involved. Therefore, the conclusion of CJK FTA will be an important boost for the further progress of both RCEP and TPP. It will also be an important stabiliser for the trilateral political relations in the future.     

Towards a “Trilateral Alliance?” Understanding the Role of Expediency and Values in American–Japanese–Australian Relations

Abstract

The emerging US–Japan–Australia trilateral alignment is representative of a new archetype of “alliance” calibrated to the changed post-Cold War, post-9/11 security environment. This article considers how we might account for this new alliance formation and how we might conceptualize it. To accomplish this the article formulates an “intra-alliance politics” framework for analysis that juxtaposes competing “Realist” and “Pluralist” images of allied behavior in International Relations theory. This framework is then employed to uncover the motivations and behavioral dynamics driving the trilateral alliance seeking to reveal whether the alignment is predicated upon common “values” or sheer “expediency.” It concludes that though the two different International Relations schools offer ostensibly competitive interpretations, the evidence suggests that they are in many ways complementary and mutually reinforcing. We must therefore consider the trilateral alliance an amalgam of both “expediency” and “values.” The application of the intra-alliance politics framework expounded here thus enhances our understanding of this particular “alliance” and the phenomenon of “alignment” in general.     

Building bridges? South African foreign policy and trilateral development cooperation

As questions concerning international development climb the international agenda, so countries find themselves drawn into a burgeoning number of negotiations on issues ranging from the future shape and direction of the post-2015 development agenda to ‘aid effectiveness’ and international development cooperation. Moving from the position of a ‘beneficiary’ state in the traditional donor–recipient aid hierarchy, South Africa is looking to define its own niche within the wider development diplomacy context as a development partner. This paper provides an assessment of South Africa's evolving approach towards international development cooperation, with a particular focus on trilateral development cooperation, and what this means for Pretoria's foreign policy in bridging the divide between developed and developing country positions within the international development regime.     

中国的朝鲜半岛政策评估——历史经验、当前成果与若干不足

中国的朝鲜半岛政策,历经朝贡体系、条约体系、冷战体系和冷战后体系四个主要阶段。从历史经验来看,一是中国的朝鲜半岛政策总体上以友好为主线、以和平为目的;二是中国的强大有助于朝鲜半岛的稳定与发展;三是当中国衰落时,朝鲜半岛往往成为外部入侵的跳板;四是制度化的安排有助于中国与朝鲜半岛国家关系的稳定发展;五是适时调整外交政策才能够不断获得滚动收益。当前中国对朝鲜半岛政策的主要成果,一是"北南并重"造就了中国在朝鲜半岛的独特政治地位;二是六方会谈成为解决朝核问题的重要机制;三是中国与朝鲜半岛国家经济合作取得显著成果,合作前景广阔;四是睦邻友好关系形成了良好的民间基础。不足之处,一是"等距离"外交带来了实质性差距;二是原则性政策突出,操作性策略不足;三是在朝鲜半岛事务沟通斡旋当中的桥梁作用有待进一步加强;四是中朝韩三边关系缺少战略性的统筹规划。