百年来中国共产党防范应对重大灾害风险的历史经验与理论阐释

抵御自然灾害是人类社会面临的永恒课题，重大自然灾害防治与国家安全、社会稳定和人民幸福息息相关。中国共产党的百年奋斗史是一部与自然灾害斗争并不断成长壮大的历史，呈现历经风雨却始终充满活力的面貌。基于历史性、整体性视角，从组织理论的维度构建“四位一体”的分析框架，从“人民至上、生命至上的核心理念”“敢于斗争的风险自觉”“高效权威组织领导”“灵敏应变的能力建设”等四个维度系统分析党成功防范各个时期重大灾害风险实践的理论逻辑。在此基础上展望防范应对重大灾害风险的前景，推动灾害应急管理体系和能力现代化，为第二个百年新征程提供坚实保障。     

电子政务的风险防范研究

针对大多数国家的政府在建设电子政务项目时出现的问题，我们需要防范电子政务的三大风险。首先，通过合理规划发展模式等措施来防范政治风险；其次，通过预先筹备隐私和安全事项等措施来防范技术风险；再次，通过重政务、重“民本”和重改革来防范管理风险。     

新西兰政府与社会合作的地震巨灾保险体系及其启示

5.12大地震带给我们很多棘手的甚至无法解决的法律难题。地震巨灾保险问题又一次呈现在我们面前。地震巨灾风险的公共或准公共产品属性和保险公司对巨灾保险的"回避"决定了政府干预的必要性。新西兰以法律形式建立符合国情的地震保险制度,作为完善的一种多渠道巨灾风险分散体系,由政府行为与市场行为结合的地震保险制度模式,对我国巨灾保险,特别是地震保险有一定的借鉴意义。我国应当尽快构建适合国情的地震巨灾保险体系:即由政府设立专门组织承担法定保险的损失赔偿的同时,增强保险公司的保险能力,并实行全民共建巨灾保险准备金制度,以有效应对不可抗御的地震巨灾风险。     

东京基于社区的地震灾害危险度评估:做法与特点

东京在实践中逐步建立了一套基于社区的地震灾害危险度评估体系,以东京各町丁目为评估对象,通过对建筑物危险度、火灾危险度和应急避难危险度进行分类评估,得出各地的综合危险度,为防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.东京基于社区的地震灾害危险度评估具有如下特点:以巨灾为重点,积极开展强烈地震发生后不同地区的危险度评估;以综合为目标,全面评估强烈地震等巨灾对经济社会产生的综合影响；以专项为基础,深入评估震后建筑物、火灾、避难等各类风险；以公开为动力,大力提高全社会的风险防范意识和应急处置能力.     

国际化进程中人才安全及其风险防范的对策研究

人才安全及其风险防范，是新形势下伴随人才在全球范围内流动而出现的新问题。本文在全面分析这一问题的国际背景、现实挑战和地位作用的基础上，论述了“人才安全战略是国家整体安全战略的核心”的观点，提出，中国人才安全战略要以有效保护中国人才资源为根本目标，充分体现社会主义的价值取向，必须服从国家、民族的最高利益和社会经济可持续发展的长远需要。并着眼于如何在国家整体、用人单位、人才个体及立法、制度、道德、环境、出入、用人等层面，构建一个系统、完整、严密的人才风险防范体系，提出了对策和措施。     

在灾难中获取启示 让经验成为财富——北川县贯岭乡基层综合应急队伍建设实践综述

基层应急队伍是我国应急体系的重要组成部分，是防范和应对突发事件的重要力量。“5·12”地震极重灾区北川羌族自治县贯岭乡在地震以后建立了一支“党员义务应急队伍”，在平时防灾减灾和战时应急响应中发挥着重要作用，     

有限扶助：地方债违约风险处置的制度选择

面对地方隐性债务存量，中央“不救助”原则起到了很好的源头管控和风险规避作用，但近年来有些地方不断加剧的政府债务风险也给当地带来一定的经济和社会压力。借鉴预算法中对有关地方实行扶助的制度经验，对地方债的自救施以“有限扶助”，是制度选择上的一种可能。“有限扶助”不同于通常意义上的“兜底救助”，是中央在坚持“不救助”原则、由地方自行偿还的基础上，明确对资格、流向、程度和方式进行限定的扶助：根据地方政府偿债能力的强弱，限定扶助对象资格；根据地方债筹集资金的性质不同，限定扶助资金流向；根据中央财政压力的大小，就整体债务规模限定扶助程度；根据中央在地方债法律关系中的角色定位，限定扶助方式。同时，中央对地方政府实施扶助的前提条件、程序设计、责任追究等应当通过法律进行明确，在市场化、法治化的债务违约处置中进一步防范化解“有限扶助”可能带来的道德风险和财政风险。     

族与群：中国社会与国家关系的底色与当代价值——以关系叠加为视角

本文从关系叠加的视角，以“族”和“群”为基点分析中国的社会与国家关系的特点与变迁。在中国悠久的历史中，产生了中国特有的社会，这就是“族”和“群”。由中国的“族”和“群”可以看出：中国的社会与国家相互渗透、国家组织社会并高于社会、国家治理能力具有特殊价值。这一特点构成了中国社会与国家关系的底色，并深刻影响着中国的历史进程。进入世界关系的时代后，一方面，传统的家族共同体解体，个人挣脱家族共同体，形成具有独立意识、利益和权利的个体；另一方面，要通过国家的力量将分散的具有不同利益的人联合为一个整体，并形成强大的国家认同。“族”与“群”这一古老的话语因此获得当代价值。     

西方风险文化理论:脉络、范式与评述

西方风险文化理论作为一支极具代表性的社会建构风险观,自20世纪70年代英国人类学家道格拉斯提出以来,经历了萌芽与形成、拓展与延伸的发展脉络.该理论具有文化主义——集体主义的社会学范式特征.在理论上,它提出了建构主义风险认知学派,构建了以群体为单位认知与解释风险的社会学范式,提供了应对文化多样性的跨文化分析工具,为构建我国具有国际视野、中国特色的现代风险文化理论范式提供了借鉴和启示.     

从韧性科学到韧性治理：理论探赜与实践展望

面对高度复杂和高度不确定的发展环境，寻找社会生态系统的治理之道已成为各界关注的议题，在探索社会系统可持续发展和有效治理的过程发现了“韧性治理”的价值。在此背景下，求索韧性治理这一术语的历史脉络及演进逻辑也就成为理论之应和现实之需。韧性治理源于“韧性”的科学话语，韧性一词具有多种学科背景，对于复杂系统的可持续性分析具有强大的解释力，这为风险社会下社会生态系统的治理提供了借鉴和思路，并开辟韧性治理作为风险社会治理的话语分析，而韧性治理也极大整合了“治理丛林”的思想内容和理论观点，形成实践中应对风险事件的分析范式。当然，韧性治理仍离不开有效性的拷问，由此需要展开与实践的对话，并在实践的场域中建构生产新的价值和理念，寻找本土化的进路，最终施展其理论使命和实践抱负。     

Dealing with natural disasters

Over the past two decades, natural disasters have severely hit the Southeast Asian region causing dramatic environmental, economic and social consequences. Through the lens of Beck's risk society framework and the theory of reflexive modernization, this article attempts at empirically taking stock of how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is addressing disaster risk through the creation of new regional institutions and mechanisms. In particular, it argues that the accumulation of the experience of catastrophes is leading ASEAN members towards the development of new precautionary initiatives to deal with disasters, and to forge a new way forward for the promotion of disaster cooperation and joint emergency response. The article is divided into five sections, which will only consider initiatives endorsed within the ASEAN framework. The first introduces risk societies as forms of modern societies and of the insecurities of the present world. In the second section attention is drawn to natural disasters as a paradigmatic example of Beck's risk society. The third section explores how ASEAN normative governance is evolving to include the issue of disaster management within its security and social agenda. Then the main institutional and operational innovations and tools through which ASEAN is preparing to deal with disaster risk are explored. Finally, the article suggests that despite ASEAN overall institutional innovations, the practice of cooperation still is effected by several factors, above all the lack of adequate resources and the difficulty of reconciling principles of solidarity with national sovereignty, which hinder ASEAN effectiveness in this area.     

Disasters,Catastrophes, and Policy Failure in the Homeland Security Era1

The September 11 attacks triggered federal policy changes designed to influence emergency management in the United States, even though these attacks did not suggest a need for a wholesale restructuring of federal policy in emergency management. Instead, for several reasons, federal policy's emphasis on terrorism and emergency management significantly degraded the nation's ability to address natural disasters. The federal government sought to create a top‐down, command and control model of emergency management that never fully accounted for, positively or normatively, the way local emergency management works in practice. The Obama administration will have to address the questions raised by the reorganization of federal emergency management responsibilities. While the context in which these changes have occurred is unique to the U.S. federal system, there are interesting implications for emergency management in nonfederal systems.     

Diffusion of Corporate Risk‐Management Characteristics: Perspectives of Chief Audit Executives through a Survey Approach

This study examines how corporate risk‐management characteristics in Australian public universities have diffused under an environment of conflicting management cultures. The findings reveal that corporate risk‐management characteristics have diffused in a pluralist form to satisfy stakeholders of different management approaches across its governance levels as opposed to a unilateral form aligned to the corporate approach. The accepted practice of this adapted version challenges the existing notion that the adoption of corporate control processes in the public sector is problematic, and provides insights into the emergence of a hybrid control process to address the needs of multiple stakeholders. These findings have policy implications for defining a new hybrid governance‐control paradigm for the public sector as an alternative to the corporate‐influenced control paradigm, and provide avenues for further research to confirm the phenomenon with other corporate control processes, public‐sector entities, and if so its impact on effective governance.     

The Third and Fatal Shock: How Pandemic Killed the Millennial Paradigm

This millennium began with widespread acceptance of a governing paradigm emphasizing small government, free markets, and open borders. Three crises—the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic—forced American policy makers to diverge from this paradigm. At the time, these divergences were described as temporary departures from normalcy. In retrospect, it would be more accurate to regard the millennial paradigm itself as the abnormality: a model of governance designed for rare moments of calm. In the last two decades, a different paradigm has emerged. American government has become the ultimate bearer of societal risks. Repeatedly, it has adopted extraordinary measures to protect public safety and the economy. However, the American state lacks the capacity to anticipate and manage these massive risks competently. New capabilities are required, along with a new mentality about governing. Domestic politics will complicate the task of building these capabilities.     

中国伦理传统的“德治”与“治德”

自周初德治主义的萌芽至汉朝中国伦理传统“德治”模式的确立，其间历经管仲以法为主的德法结合论、孔子的以德治国论、荀子的礼法并重论等治国理论。然而，基于批判秦朝“法治”实践发展起来的汉朝治国模式，在“罢黜百家、独尊儒术”的背景下走向了纯伦理化的“德治”。与之相应，其培养“德治”主体道德素质的“治德”范式呈现为片面的伦理型特征。自汉至清历朝历代由盛而衰的“德治”循环实践证明：伦理型“治德”前提下的“德治”陷入了“德治”悖论。化解“德治”悖论，实现国家长治久安的选择是全面认识、借鉴吸收先秦时期诸子百家的治国理论及其“治德”范式，促进“治德”的伦理制度化。     

风险的体制性衰减:一个概念性分析框架

灾害社会科学的不断发展将灾害、危机、风险研究推向全景视阈，而组织视角的灾害风险分析则从中观层面为风险研究提供新的学术增量。随着现实社会中的风险规制体系复杂性程度剧增，风险组织中运作过程常常呈现衰减现象，组织困境已成为风险治理的模式与政策选择的重要因素。通过聚焦风险的体制性衰减问题的成因及过程，并就风险的体制性衰减的测度量纲进行尝试性探讨，借由所提出的概念性框架对转型期风险规制体制设计提供理论支撑。     

The limits and variety of risk‐based governance: The case of flood management in Germany and England

Risk‐based governance is argued by many to hold the promise of a more rational and efficient state, by making explicit the limitations of state interventions and focusing finite resources on those targets where probable damage is greatest. This paper challenges the assumption that risk‐based governance has the potential for universal and uniform application, by comparing contemporary flood management in Germany and England. On first inspection, flooding appears to be a paradigmatic case of risk colonizing European policy discourses, with the traditional notion of flood defense giving way to flood risk management in the context of climate change, increasingly frequent flood disasters, political and cost pressures on flood protection, and publicly available European‐wide flood assessments. Drawing on in‐depth empirical research, this paper shows how the role, and even the definition, of “risk” is institutionally shaped, and how the respective institutional environments of German and English flood management practices impede and promote risk colonization. In particular, the use and conceptualizations of risk in governance are variously promoted, filtered, or constrained by the administrative procedures, structures, and political expectations embedded within flood management and wider polities of each country. The findings of this research are important for the design and implementation of supranational policies and regulations that endorse risk‐based approaches, such as the recent EU Flood Directive, as well as scholarly debate as to how to legitimately define the limits of governance in the face of uncertainty and accountability pressures.     

From Government to Governance? A Comparison of Environmental Governing in Swedish Forestry and Transport

From government to governance is a grand story line about the changing role of the state, which has had a great impact upon researchers and practitioners. This article is an empirical assessment of this story line. Three critical dimensions are elaborated into indicators of government and governance: governing styles and instruments, public–private relationships, and policy levels. These indicators are used to assess the role of the state in environmental governing using Swedish forestry and transport as examples. The results show that the story line is too simple; the role of the state is not changing in a unidirectional way. Instead, the comparison shows that environmental governing within the two policy areas is characterized by both government and governance modes of governing, thus questioning the usefulness of the story line as a guideline when framing empirical studies or political decisions.     

Organising for Effective Emergency Management: Lessons from Research1

The February 2009 bushfires have prompted a debate with regard to contemporary arrangements for dealing with large‐scale disasters. In this article, we seek to contribute to that debate by culling lessons learned from the literature on crisis and disaster management. We discuss what constitutes an effective disaster response system, we identify some key barriers to the effective functioning of such a system, and offer some suggestions for improvement.     

Microblogs and the Adaptation of the Chinese Party‐State's Governance Strategy

The Chinese party‐state is currently adapting its governance strategy. The recent debate in China on the role of microblogs in the governance process, as documented in the reports issued by Chinese research institutes and advisory bodies, illustrates the efforts being undertaken by China's political elites to integrate microblogs into their new public management strategy. Mass protests and large‐scale online criticism—voiced via microblogs—directly threaten the regime's survival. As a consequence, legitimacy is no longer regarded as being inherent, but as something that has instead to be permanently regained and reaffirmed. To increase the system's efficiency and to generate a new kind of symbolic legitimacy, China's political elites tend to base the political decision‐making process on strategic calculations intended to be reflective of public online opinion. The turn toward a more responsive way of governing by the Chinese party‐state demonstrates once more the adaptability of authoritarian one‐party states in the digital era.