RCEP在推动东亚区域合作中的作用与新课题

区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)对亚洲经济体进一步提升区域贸易投资自由化水平、促进形成区域一体化市场、改善区域综合发展环境具有积极意义。与此同时,RCEP也存在着进一步升级探索经贸新规则、推动区域内部国家进一步参与价值链分工以及提高自由贸易协定利用水平等一系列提升空间。未来一段时期内,以RCEP为重要内容的亚洲区域经济一体化进程将稳定发展,RCEP成员方需要积极加强国际合作,推动RCEP落地生效并发挥应有作用,为区域经济增长和全球经贸发展作出更大贡献。     

数字经济时代的全球数据安全治理与中国策略

进入数字经济时代以来,日益严峻的数据安全风险与变幻莫测的国际形势交织叠加,各国围绕数据安全治理规则博弈呈现加剧态势,引发全球数据安全治理问题。各国际行为体虽然已经意识到数据安全治理的重要性,但对全球数据安全治理并未形成统一的治理框架。全球数据安全治理仅仅由单边、双边和多边框架以及贸易规则拼凑而成,相关治理议题在公民个人、社会、经济以及国家安全等多个层面相继涌现。多领域多维度的数据安全问题难免造成治理主体利益诉求的差异,也导致全球数据安全治理出现了规则碎片化、机制效用不足、治理乏力等问题。与此同时,个别国家的数据霸权主义行为更是使得国际行为体难以凝聚共识,全球数据安全治理步履蹒跚,重视和加强对全球数据安全问题的治理迫在眉睫。中国高度重视数据安全的相关议题,由于中国在数据治理领域起步较晚,仍存在立法不完善、技术创新能力薄弱、国际合作不足、治理乏力等问题。中国需要全面、系统地分析影响数据安全的各种重大风险因素,准确把握全球数据安全趋势,进一步优化中国在全球数据安全治理中的策略选择。     

Preventing protectionism: International institutions and trade policy

This paper examines the role of international institutions in preventing the rise of protectionism. We analyze states?? choices in trade policy during the current global economic crisis, a situation likely to exacerbate uncertainty in the conduct of commercial relations and to push countries toward ??beggar-thy-neighbor?? trade policies. The main argument of the paper is that the numerous international institutions present in the international system during the current economic crisis serve as conveyors of information and mechanisms of commitment and socialization. They mitigate the uncertainty problem that prevails in prisoner??s dilemma settings such as trade. Economic international organizations increase the flow of information about the preferences and behaviors of its members. Non-economic organizations also have a role to play as social environments that encourage cooperation. Specialized international institutions devoted to trade, such as the WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs), not only provide monitoring and enforcement functions but also lock in commitments to liberal trade through legal obligations that make defections costly. We test our argument using a dataset of trade policies during the current economic crisis and of membership in international organizations. The paper finds strong support for the role of international institutions as commitment and socialization mechanisms in preventing the rise of protectionism.     

拉美国家的贸易开放度研究

贸易开放是经济现代化的基本特征之一,GATT以及WTO等一些国际经济秩序的基本构成机制进一步推动了全球的贸易自由化,背离这一秩序或者趋势的结果是无法从他国的市场开放中获得益处。在出口导向战略实施了多年之后,目前拉美主要国家的贸易开放到底达到了一个什么样的程度正是我们所困惑的问题。本文以亚洲7个国家作为参照组,研究了1995年至2009年拉美7个国家(阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和委内瑞拉)的贸易开放程度。主要结论是,最近10多年,7个拉美国家的贸易开放度有了显著而稳步的上升,但与亚洲国家相比,拉美国家的贸易开放程度普遍略低。本文对于研究拉美国家经济开放程度与经济增长、国际贸易体制以及国内产业发展之间的关系,特别是中拉经贸关系发展前景等问题都具有基础性和阶段性的意义。     

金砖国家经济利益的交汇与分歧

全球经济结构正在进行的重大调整和新兴经济体地位的迅速上升为金砖国家集团的出现提供了时代契机。本文深入分析了金砖国家之间的共同经济利益和利益分歧。金砖国家在经济结构互补、改革国际货币金融体系、提升国际经济地位、应对大规模资本流入和碳排放等方面拥有广泛的共同利益,但在双边贸易、大宗商品定价、人民币汇率和国际货币经济秩序改革方式等问题上存在着一些分歧和矛盾。     

China's Multi-Faceted Economic Development Strategy in East Africa

Sino-East African infrastructure investment and international trade have reached record levels and garnered global interest in recent years. Despite this attention, there is a lack of project-level analysis and documentation relating to China's overarching economic strategies in the East African region. By analyzing the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway and the Damerjog Port-Ogaden Basin gas pipeline projects, this article discusses project-level details and their roles in China's overarching economic development strategy. Through analysis on bilateral trade and infrastructure development connectivity, this article determines the derivatives and long-term strategic interests of Sino-African trade and infrastructure investment.     

进一步加强中印在国际金融危机之下的经贸合作

2008年始发于美国的国际金融危机给世界经济造成了普遍影响并使之遭受严重衰退,尤其在＂后危机时代＂加增了其复苏的困难,但世界最大的两个发展中国家中国和印度却在危机中一直表现出色,不仅率先恢复了自身经济的活力与增长,而且继续保持了地区及全球＂经济增长引擎＂的地位,这充分凸显出两国进一步加强经贸合作的必要性和重要性。     

A supranational party system and the legitimacy of the European Union

China’s emergence as an economic and military power has given rise to apprehensions globally, related not only to China’s cultural and historical ‘alienness’, but also to its apparent willingness to challenge the global system and architecture of global governance. While non-Western countries are wary of the possible impact on them and on the global order of Chinese actions, they appear to be willing to cooperate with China on some global issues in order to change a system often seen as inequitable and unbalanced. Yet, the West seems to conflate the idea of a rising China with that of other emerging markets. Given their historical, political and cultural experiences, however, their access to power and influence, if and when it happens, need not necessarily take the same route as China. This is true particularly of India; India is likely, at least for the foreseeable future, to remain within the existing paradigm of global governance, though it may seek to adapt the rules and structures to better reflect its economic, political and security interests. This would not preclude cooperation on a selective basis on specific global issues with different partners, particularly in the realm of global challenges such as climate change, non-proliferation, international trade and finance and the global commons, such as space, the oceans and cyberspace.     

China-U.S. Trade——the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.     

China-U.S. Trade——the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.     

中印商品贸易走势分析及对策建议

受国际金融危机引起的全球经济衰退的影响,短期内中印商品贸易处于下滑和恢复增长阶段。受目前中印商品贸易规模、印度对进口中国商品心存疑虑以及中印商品贸易严重不平衡等因素的影响和限制,中期甚至更长时间内,中印商品贸易将进入平缓增长期。为保持中印商品贸易持续增长,中印双方有必要采取一些相应措施。     

Some Thoughts on ＂Harmonious Globalization＂

This article argues that ＂Harmonious Globalization＂ offers a platform for harmonizing the positive and negative aspects of the current U.S.-led economic globalization that reflects the objective laws of human development. The article attempts to chart the path ahead for the world economy in the context of economic globalization, pervasive poverty/inequality, the resultant worldwide political awakening, the degradation of global ecosystems, and the current turmoil in financial institutions. The global challenge ahead will be three-fold： to bring the excluded 1/3 of the world＇s population into the open trade system; to encourage emerging markets like China and India to carry on with open policies and to persuade the developed Western nations to adhere to an open trade system and resist the temptations of trade protectionism. Free market access should be offered to those marginalized countries, the so-called ＂failed or failing states＂ that have been excluded from and angered by the globalization process. The growth in prosperity of these nations will open up a vast potential market for the world.     

金砖国家经贸安全合作:挑战与对策

新兴经济体的崛起导致国际格局发生重大变化,全球治理体系却未很好地反映这种变化趋势,以金砖国家为首的新兴变革力量开始登上国际安全治理的舞台。然而,贸易保护主义抬头和逆全球化的盛行使金砖国家内部的贸易势头减弱;美联储加息、投资干预政策以及政局动荡和经济疲弱等因素使金砖国家面临外国直接投资净流入减少的压力;大宗商品价格剧烈波动给金砖国家能源安全合作带来困扰;金融安全合作进展缓慢。基于此,金砖国家应继续深化各领域的改革,加快经济结构的调整,为金砖国家的安全合作夯实基础;加快相互之间的发展战略对接,以提升金砖国家的安全合作水平;通过加强沟通与协调,积极参与全球治理,丰富金砖国家安全合作的内涵。     

论高科技对印度经济发展的影响

独立后,为了把印度建设成为现代化工业强国和有声有色的世界大国,印度政府重视科技特别是高科技发展,从而使印度在各高科技领域获得举世瞩目的进展。高科技已经对印度经济增长、印度产业结构、印度地区经济和印度对外经济等产生了十分重要的影响,并且仍将对未来印度经济发展产生深远的影响。     

中印贸易关系的国际政治经济学分析

国际政治经济学为我们理解国际贸易提供了一个清晰简易的视角,通过这一视角,我们能够更好地理解国际贸易理论,并在此指导下更好地分析国际社会上的贸易行为。中国和印度的贸易额迅速增长,是对方增长速度最快的贸易伙伴之一。两国的产业结构既存在互补的方面,也存在竞争的一面。本文试通过国际政治经济学视角下的国际贸易理论,从影响两国贸易关系的经济和政治两方面的因素对中印贸易关系进行分析。     

日韩工会发展比较及启示

日韩两国工会组织的发展与其工业化的进程密切相关,两国已形成多层次的三方机构,形成了维护工人利益、亦使经营者受益的各种规则和制度,劳动关系发展也由冲突向合作推进。中国尚处于工业化中期阶段,三次产业构成仅相当于日本20世纪60年代、韩国20世纪80年代的水平,劳动关系的某些表现也与当时的日韩相似。借鉴日韩经验,构建适合中国国情的工会组织机制,应增强企业工会的独立性和影响力;维护非正规就业群体利益;设置经济与工会问题专门研究机构;探索与日韩工会的跨国合作与联合。     

Does fair trade make a difference? The case of small coffee producers in Nicaragua

Fair trade represents an innovative approach to make the rules of global trade work for disadvantaged producers in the South and for sustainable development. But who are the real beneficiaries of fair trade? Has fair trade resulted in any discernible improvements in the lives of small coffee producers and their communities? This paper examines the effectiveness of fair trade as a development tool and the extent of its contribution to the alleviation of poverty in coffee-producing regions of Nicaragua. The paper argues that it is crucial to analyse the experiences and problems of small coffee producers and producer organisations involved in the fair trade market to ensure that the objectives and claims of fair trade are achieved in practice. The study concludes that there are limits to the extent to which fair trade can significantly raise the standard of living of small coffee producers because of factors such as the debt problems faced by cooperatives, lack of government support, and volatile international coffee prices.     

Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.     

Targeted Sanctions in a World of Global Finance

This is the golden age of economic statecraft—and the study of economic statecraft. This is in large part due to the evolution of economic coercion from trade embargoes to targeted financial sanctions. Targeted financial sanctions are attractive because they can generate economic costs similar to those of more comprehensive sanctions, with fewer negative externalities. Over time, however, the intersection of economic sanctions with globalized capital markets will provoke three interesting research questions. First, do financial sanctions spare a target country’s population from negative humanitarian and human rights outcomes? Second, to what extent are financial sanctions an exercise in learning by both targets and senders? Third, will the United States’ use of financial sanctions trigger blowback against US primacy in the international financial system? These last two questions offer the prospect to linking research on economic statecraft with larger questions of international security and global political economy.     

东亚与美国经贸关系演变与新的发展出路

本文从贸易地位、出口商品结构、贸易结合度梳理了东亚与美国经贸关系的演变。结果显示,源于国际分工模式的改变,中美经贸关系逐年紧密,东亚其余经济体与美国经贸紧密度逐年下降,而对东亚区域内部的依赖远超过对美国的依赖。金融危机带来的全球经济格局和结构的重大调整使东亚出口急剧萎缩,而后危机时期发达国家"无就业复苏"和重振制造业的动向,更使东亚须通过内部经济循环寻求新的发展出路。