特朗普政府网络安全政策的调整及未来挑战

特朗普上台后,美国政府对网络安全政策进行了一定程度的调整。随着美国政府、国会和部分战略界人士把应对与中俄之间的大国竞争作为国家安全战略重点,特朗普政府把网络空间的大国竞争作为美国面临的主要挑战。为了维护在数字空间的优势地位,美国政府加强了对关键基础设施的保护,努力推动数字经济发展,大力提升网络军事能力。相较于奥巴马政府,特朗普政府的网络安全政策进攻性更强,客观上推动了网络空间的军事化进程。在"美国优先"和"以实力谋和平"的思想指导下,美国从自身的利益和需求出发处理网络空间事务,其激进的网络战略强化了大国博弈和网络威慑行动,同时也导致全球网络治理进展缓慢。尽管美国力图在数字空间建立持久的优势,但它必须面对一系列挑战。     

美国网络安全面临的新挑战及应对策略

2015年以后,美国的网络安全形势出现了新挑战。网络犯罪呈现出更大的破坏性,恐怖组织频繁利用网络扩大影响,俄罗斯黑客逐渐成为美国在网络空间的主要威胁。为了应对数字领域的新挑战,奥巴马政府调整了美国的网络安全政策。2016年推出的《网络安全国家行动计划》,在总结奥巴马七年多执政经验的基础上对美国在数字时代面临的问题提出了策略方针。美国通过各种手段强化打击网络恐怖主义力度,完善政府与私营企业的合作,努力推动国际层面的网络安全合作。未来,美国将采取一系列措施来巩固网络空间稳定。美国将强化网络威慑能力建设,加强网络安全信息共享并清理美国境内的恶意网络行为,在网络空间攻坚克难,为实现本国的政治、经济、安全等利益打下坚实基础。     

中美经济网络间谍争端的冲突根源与调适路径

中美经济网络间谍争端的根源在于网络空间发展与经济社会运行深度融合、中美网络战略的结构矛盾,以及两国安全和发展利益的竞争特性。挑起中美经济网络间谍争端是美国寻求绝对安全的国家安全观和网络安全观的体现,也包含平衡中国实力增长的意图。随着对网络安全认知不断加深,相互政策不断碰撞磨合,中美两国管控分歧意愿逐步增强,及至达成各自承诺不从事、不支持经济网络间谍活动的共识。中美关系竞争面的上升,促使网络空间控制权和网络治理话语权的争夺成为常态,因而围绕经济竞争与安全博弈的网络争端仍将不断出现。未来中美能否有效管控分歧,避免引发新的冲突,还在于两个互联网大国网络战略理念的相互塑造和网络空间利益的相互调适,并在网络安全领域展开务实合作。     

网络空间的中美关系:竞争、冲突与合作

在中美关系各领域,网络空间问题在极短时间具有了极其重要的意义。网络空间不仅对传统中美关系形成了冲击,而且还引发了相应的博弈与竞争,如网络空间治理权之争、网络战略优势竞争,以及与之相随的网络技术优势的夺取、网络军备竞赛和网络话语权竞争等。网络事务管理的主权性与网络空间运行的开放性之间的矛盾构成中美关系网络冲突的根源。网络空间的全球性及世界各国所面临的网络信息安全等共同威胁,促成了中美关系在网络空间的合作,如在网络治理的国际制度建设、应对网络犯罪、技术合作、网络冲突控制等方面。避免网络空间的中美关系走向安全困境,需要相对稳定的实践。对网络监管和网络主权的认同、建立中美网络空间的战略互信是实践的重要方面。     

转型中的俄罗斯国家能力：政治制度与精英体制的分析（上）

苏联的解体和20世纪90年代的动荡导致了俄罗斯国家权力的流失。在30年的转型进程中，俄罗斯始终在推行国家重构策略，追求建设一个“强国家”。俄罗斯国家的重构策略可以从政治制度与精英体制两个角度进行考察。在政治制度方面，俄罗斯国家主动塑造了一个以联邦主体首脑为绝对核心的地方政治体系。在当代俄罗斯地方政治中，“州长”合并了苏联时期多个政治机构的权力与职能，“州政府”则成为州长权力体系的延展和辅助。为避免对“州长”的过度依赖，俄罗斯国家进行了复杂的制度设计保证对“州长”的权力进行分化与制约。一方面，俄罗斯国家在联邦主体层面设计了一个多层次的竞争结构，使纵向从联邦到地方层级，横向从政治、经济到社会领域的众多精英都能参与对“州长”职位的竞争。另一方面，俄罗斯国家还通过上级与下属机关等正式机构，以及直管机构、派驻机构、社会组织、市场主体四类非正式机构实现了对“州长”权力的拆分。最终，俄罗斯国家塑造了一个治理者与治理工具相分离的治理模式。通过对治理工具的掌控，联邦政府就能灵活调整联邦主体首脑所拥有的权限和影响力，并对其长期持续性地施加压力。治理者与治理工具相分离的特征实际上正体现了俄罗斯地方政治制度的...     

数字平台权力与欧盟成员国数字平台监管——以德国、瑞典与荷兰为例

数字平台因凭借海量数据、强大的算法算力和连接整个数字生态系统的能力而具备强大的平台权力。数字平台权力可分为经济权力、社会权力和政治权力。美国因其数字平台权力对欧盟地区经济、社会、政治形成的巨大冲击而成为欧盟及成员国的重点监管对象。本文通过对主要成员国监管美国超大数字平台的典型事件的分析得出,数字平台权力对当地社会和政治冲击是欧盟成员国开展数字平台监管的动力所在。在监管过程中,各国基于核心关切点的多方协调来决定监管的方式和力度。本文的研究意义在于将研究层次回落到成员国层面,补充了欧盟地区数字平台监管研究的国家维度。     

网络空间大国关系面临的安全困境、错误知觉和路径选择——以中欧网络合作为例

网络空间大国合作不仅面临利益上的分歧,还面临更深层次的困境。网络空间作为一个新领域、新议题在认知层面对国家造成了挑战。只有在消除错误知觉、建立互信的基础上建立相应的合作和治理机制才能构建起良性的网络空间大国关系,维护网络空间稳定、和平与发展。本文以中欧在网络空间的互动为例,首先分析了大国网络空间安全困境的现状,随后深入分析了合作困境背后的错误知觉,最后提出了中欧在网络领域合作的路径选择。     

论当前国际政治与国际经济有机互动的新特征

国际经济关系政治化、国际政治关系经济化的“两化”特征在80年代以来愈益鲜明。国际关系的“两化”现象反映了经济全球化的迅速发展强化了经济生活在国际社会中的主导地位,保证了经济对政治的基础性和决定性作用;以科技为基础、经济为核心的综合国力的竞争伴随着经济全球化而愈益残酷和激烈,主权国家不得不借助强制性公共权力深化对世界经济的干预以协调和控制国家之间的利益关系。在和平与发展的时代主题下,世界经济的全球化和民族国家对经济生活干预力度的强化,深深地影响到政治与经济之间相互依存、相互作用、相互转换的有机互动,使政治与经济的互动呈现出“强经济-强政治”的互动模式。     

德国网络空间透明与信任建设简析

网络空间透明与信任建设(TCBMs)是国际社会透明与信任建设机制在网络空间的拓展和应用,是缓和网络空间国际冲突的重要措施。德国的网络空间安全治理机制TCBMs注重保护关键基础设施,积极支持推进国际社会关于网络安全议题的研究和讨论;强调国际协调与合作,增加国家间的透明度与信任建设,重视多利益攸关方治理模式,共同维护网络安全。在联合国、欧安组织和北约等多边机制中,德国对促进国际社会网络空间透明与信任建设的理论探讨与实践作出了重要贡献。     

俄罗斯安全观的嬗变、延续与回归

俄罗斯安全观随国际互动的性质与程度呈弹性变化,具有可变性与可塑性。其传统安全观基于“霍布斯意象”的权力导向模式,分为周边和欧洲国际体系两个层面。俄罗斯在周边主要奉行局部扩张战略,在欧洲国际体系主要奉行权力制衡战略。局部扩张与权力制衡有利于物理力量的积聚与国际平衡,使俄罗斯得以应对地缘不安全问题。但传统安全格局的稳定仍需大国在战略层面的国际共识加以维系。冷战后期,特别是冷战结束后的国际形势变化,促成非传统地缘竞争的国际格局。在新的国际情境下,俄罗斯传统安全观战略层面的共识成分逐渐向认知层面转化,并开始突破或超越“霍布斯意象”。俄罗斯新安全观呈现不同认知层次的三维投射。随着国际互动的性质与程度的变化,俄罗斯安全观的演变与发展呈双向可逆特征：既可以向未来迈进,也可以向传统回归。     

The securitization of cyberspace governance in Singapore

ABSTRACT

Drawing from securitization theory and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), this article examines how the Singaporean government has “securitized” cyberspace governance. It contributes value-add to the existing literature on securitization theory by evaluating the specific backgrounds and preexisting beliefs that securitizing actors bring with them to the securitization process. Taking the case of Singapore, this paper focuses on the military elites turned civilian politicans and policymakers that have been tasked with cyberspace governance. A discourse analysis shows how terminologies describing cyberspace as an “existential” issue and key personnel appointments with significant military backgrounds reflect the prevalance of military elites, terminologies, strategies that have become embedded within domestic cybersecurity governance structures. The use of military-style concepts such as “digital ranges” and “war games” in Singapore mirrors global financial industry trends where military-derived terminology has become widespread in preparing for cyber-attacks on critical information infrastructure. Two key focus areas of cyberspace governance are evaluated: online content regulation of Internet and social media networks, and legislation to protect critical information infrastructure. The paper concludes by discussing a range of concerns raised by the target “audience” of securitization processes, such as civil society and information infrastructure providers.     

国际秩序与中美战略竞争

当今国际格局的最显著变化,就是新兴市场国家和发展中国家的群体性崛起以及中国与世界主要国家间力量对比的变化。就中美当前的实力地位和国际影响力而言,中美战略竞争中短期内还难以决定性地改变当前的国际秩序。中国即便对美国的贸易霸凌主义和在亚太地区的霸权主义军事及安全行动采取斗争的回应方式,也并不意味着两国无法合作、或中美关系已进入国际秩序变革的主导权之争。中美战略竞争的同时,经贸往来和必要的合作仍会发展。中美战略竞争会影响权力、观念和行为方式的调整变化,其走势将在相当程度上影响国际秩序的稳定和变革。但未来国际秩序的变革并非只取决于中美,世界主要国家间的互动关系和战略选择,将决定性地影响中美战略竞争的走势和未来国际秩序的演变进程。     

东亚经济地区主义的终结?——制度过剩与经济整合的困境

冷战结束以来,东亚的经济地区主义虽然取得了一些进展,但至今仍然没有发展出一个成熟稳定的区域制度框架来推动区域经济进行深度整合。该地区多重制度框架相互竞争,造成了一种"制度过剩"的特殊格局。这导致东亚地区在经济整合的过程中,缺乏有力的制度推动和有效的区域治理,具体表现为该地区至今仍难以建立有助于提高经济绩效的经济要素完全自由流动的统一经济区;难以采取集体行动,共同应对来自外部的各种经济风险和冲击。本文认为,东亚地区多重制度竞争的背后,是由于与该区域相关的主要行为体对塑造东亚经济秩序有着不同的利益偏好和战略诉求,他们各自极力推动对自身有利的区域机制,从而形成"制度过剩"。主要行为体在东亚的主导权竞争以区域制度竞争的形式展开。随着金融危机之后中国经济的加速崛起以及美国决心重返东亚,东亚经济整合中制衡与反制衡的矛盾将日益突出,从而带来更加激烈的制度竞争,这是东亚经济地区主义遭遇挫折而非取得成功的标志,东亚地区将因此继续沦为经济全球化进程中的"碎片"。     

Special Issue Introduction: Domestic Politics in Japan and Sino-Japanese Relations

The Sino-Japanese relations have again reached to the lowest point since Koizumi’s rule. Contrary to the conventional literatures which explaining the dynamic relation from the international dimensions, this special issue highlights the different domestic actors in Japanese politics who contribute significantly to the foreign policy-making process, notably regarding Japan’s Chinese policies. While there is a significant rightward shift in domestic politics and a growing discrepancy between central and local level politicians, the quest for discursive power between the opposing camps in the relevant areas will heavily determine future Sino-Japanese relationships.     

The contested terrain of land governance reform in Myanmar

State control of land plays a critical role in producing land dispossession throughout the Global South. In Myanmar, the state’s approach towards territorial expansion has driven the country’s system of land governance, resulting in widespread and systemic land grabbing. This article investigates ongoing land governance reforms as key terrains for contesting such abuses of power. Employing a relational land governance approach, we view reform processes as shaped by changing power-laden social relations among government, civil society, and international donor actors. Legal and regulatory reforms in Myanmar potentially act as sites of meaningful social change but in practice tend to maintain significant limitations in altering governance dynamics. Civil society organizations and their alliances in Myanmar have played an important role in opening up policy processes to a broader group of political actors. Yet, policies and legal frameworks still are often captured by elite actors, becoming trapped in path dependent power relations.     

The empowerment of Turkish governors within hybrid settings of public administration

The widespread reforms of Turkish public administration and the machinery of government from 2000s onwards resulted in a gradual delegation of certain state’s functions to local and non-state actors, through a gradual rescaling of the policy-making systems and a remarkable hybridization of governance logics. The relevant literature focuses largely on the rising role and importance of involving non-state actors rather than state officials in policy-making processes. The paper explains how the scope and the method of public agents’ influence adapt to the current context of so-called neoliberalization of public administration in Turkey. The paper discusses in detail provincial governors with regard to their relatively ‘disguised’ power in social and economic policies through new hybrid mechanisms.     

South Africa's bilateral relationships in the evolving foreign policy of an emerging middle power

This article introduces the special issue on ‘South African Foreign Policy: identity, directions, and intentions’. Here we seek to summarize key insights from the contributions to this special issue to deepen understanding of South Africa’s evolving post-apartheid foreign policy through an exploration of the nature and trajectory of key bilateral relationships from both the global ‘South’ (Brazil, China, Iran, the AU) and ‘North’ (Japan and the UK). This window on the country’s international relations enriches understanding of the normative and structural factors that influence not only South African foreign policy, but those of what Edouard Jordaan calls emerging middle powers as they seek to position themselves as influential actors in international affairs. We sketch the contours of these key South African relationships in four areas where the tendencies and tensions of emerging middle power foreign policies are apparent: regionalism, multilateralism, reform of global governance, and approach to moral leadership.     

Afghanistan reconstruction in regional perspective

The reconstruction of Afghanistan is in part dependent upon the reintegration of Afghanistan into the international community. Reintegration, in turn, is dependent upon Afghanistan's trans-border infrastructure of communication, trade, transport, water, power and investment. Accordingly, increased regional economic cooperation is a key element of Afghanistan's reconstruction. This article analyses regional economic cooperation in the South and Central Asian region in terms of logic, institutions, actors, and expectations. The article argues in favour of inclusiveness to enlarge the number of beneficiaries of economic benefits of regional economic cooperation while avoiding the pitfalls of risky strategies of faulty collective action.     

Problems with Power-Transition Theory: Beyond the Vanishing Disparities Thesis

What happens when established states and rising powers meet on the world stage? Is conflict inevitable, or can adroit foreign policies produce peaceful accommodation between jostling Great Powers? Traditional power-transition theory tends to predict conflictual outcomes of shifting power, but this finding does not square with either the historical record or public policy-maker’s own intuitions about how international politics works. In this article, I exegete a central weakness of extant power-transition theory—that is, its reliance on vanishing disparities in national power as an explanatory factor—in order to understand where the theory is failing and how best to proceed with a view to generating greater understanding of geopolitical shifts. Beginning from the starting point that social science theory should generate useful implications for ‘real world’ social and political actors, I argue that power-transition theory’s monocausal vanishing disparities thesis is problematic in three respects: practical, theoretical and empirical.     

State-building and patronage networks: how political parties embezzled the bureaucracy in post-war Kosovo

ABSTRACT

Why has the internationally promoted Weberian-style bureaucracy failed to replace patronage as the dominant principle of state organization in post-war Kosovo? This article explores how international actors’ rule-promotion activities and local actors’ strategies of resistance play out and interact to explain the failure. The empirical analysis focuses on rules of recruitment in the civil service system in the period 2000–2016. The analysis juxtaposes two consecutive stages of the state-building process, which are marked by different degrees and forms of international involvement: the pre-independence period, 1999–2008; and post-independence period, 2008–2016. Evidence from the case suggests that during the pre-independence period, legal inconsistencies embedded in the internationally promulgated legislation enabled local actors’ formal and informal strategies to recruit political cronies in the newly created civil service system. The transfer of authority from international administrators to elected local authorities, especially after Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008, did not solve the problem of legal inconsistencies, and instead, served to consolidate governing parties’ strategies of control over recruitment in the state bureaucracy. More often than not, patron–client relationships that thrive at the borderline between formality and informality of political behaviour, continued to undermine external rule transfers.