Foreign Policy Activism in Saudi Arabia and Oman. Diverging Narratives and Stances towards the Syrian and Yemeni Conflicts

Abstract

Amid growing animosity and security concerns in the Middle East, the Gulf region appears to be on the way to becoming the new centre of gravity of regional equilibria. The increasingly active foreign policy postures of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is a key aspect of the new regional order in the making. Saudi Arabia and Oman are two examples of this trend. Their involvement in the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts reveals important differences regarding the aims, narratives, political and military postures, strategies and alliances pursued by Riyadh and Muscat and casts a shadow over the future of GCC cooperation and integration.     

US-Arab Gulf Relations amidst Regional and Global Changes

Abstract

The Arab Gulf has long enjoyed privileged relations with the United States. Being home to the world’s largest oil reserves, the US saw it in its strategic interest to keep Arab Gulf states in its camp during the Cold War. The relation developed over the years to include other areas of cooperation such as in the military, economic and even academic fields. However, many factors today challenge this relationship. In the face of the US’ evident retrenchment from the region, the Arab Gulf is showing more inter-GCC cooperation, and Saudi Arabia is trying to forge alliances independently from the US. At the same time, Arab Gulf countries are intensifying their lobbying efforts in the US.     

Experiential regionalism and political processes in south India

Regional identities have periodically asserted themselves in Indian politics, both before and after Independence. The intensity of this regionalism has, however, tended to vary quite substantially from state to state and over time, ranging from a somewhat benign influence on state politics to demands for secession. These differences are typically explained in terms of specific local political conditions. While the local is undoubtedly important, this article argues that a larger theoretical explanation is also possible: Once we recognize that regionalism operates in multiple spaces, it becomes evident that the way these spaces are experienced has its influence on the practice of local politics. The article goes on to match its theoretical expectations with the politics of regionalism in the neighboring south Indian states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.     

The Subjugation of Pacifism in UK Parliamentary Discourse: Analysing the 2015 Debate on Bombing Syria

ABSTRACT

This article shows how pacifism is discursively constituted within politics. Employing Critical Discourse Analysis, it demonstrates how official narratives worked to depoliticise pacifism during the 2015 House of Commons debate on taking military action against ISIS in Syria. It argues that the current rejection of pacifism within politics rests upon a flawed narrative and considers the interests that are served by this. Overall, this article calls for pacifism to be de-subjugated and considers the profound political implication this would have.     

Russia as a Gravity Pole of the GCC’s New Foreign Policy Pragmatism

Abstract

Despite the obvious differences over the Syrian crisis and Iran, the GCC countries do not seem to be distancing themselves from Russia politically. To a large extent that is due to Russia’s growing military role (in Syria) and military cooperation (with Iran), as well as the diminishing role of the United States under Obama. Having accepted the situation in Syria (after the fall of Aleppo) as a fait accompli, the GCC’s elites seem to be looking at Russia as a powerful player able to reduce the scope of Iran’s expansion in the region. Their approach involves a carefully established mechanism of economic interaction exploiting Russia’s need for GCC finances and arms acquisitions.     

The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.     

The Travails of Balance of Power Theory: The United States in the Middle East

Balance of power is a ubiquitous concept in theory and practice, but it is rarely tested. This study tests balance of power and balance of threat theories in the case of U.S. intervention in the Persian Gulf. Propositions are derived from the theories and from a conceptualization that treats external states as facing potentially competing and contradictory pressures to balance at the global and regional levels as well as against power and threat. Evidence strongly disconfirms balance of power theory, while balance of threat theory is partly confirmed. Conditions are identified that make balance of threat theory more robust against the historical period explored and possibly in other cases.     

The Blockade on Qatar: Conflict Management Failings

ABSTRACT

Current tensions in the Gulf region highlight the persistence of crises and conflict. A number of states within the area now regularly engage in interventionist actions that challenge previously held norms of sovereignty and non-intervention. Fragmentation characterises what were once considered fairly robust structures of unity and enduring regional organisation. Theoretical norms that presuppose non-intervention are tested by new forms of coercion and interventionism among Gulf actors that exacerbate rather than resolve security dilemmas. In turn, this highlights the inadequacies of normative models of conflict management and resolution, and in particular mediation. These developments are examined in the case of the blockade against Qatar instituted by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in June 2017.     

Contribution of the regions to Russian security policy

Andrey Makarychev is Professor of International Relations at the Nizhny Novgorod Linguistic University in Russia.¹ His areas of expertise are security studies, regionalism and federalism and international relations theory. In 2001–02, Andrey was a guest scholar at the Zurich-based Centre for Security Studies and Conflict Research and the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute.     

东南亚新地区主义及其制度转型的范式研究

东盟-体化进程的加快是东南亚新地区主义发展的一项重要成果,目前对东南亚新地区主义的研究主要是借鉴国际政治经济学的研究套路。东南亚新地区主义具有地区整合和地区离散的双重特征。东盟的扩大、经济一体化、冲突的管理和解决等,又使得新地区主义具有制度转型的特征。东盟期望通过加强内部的文化认同和调适,在未来的全球竞争中更具竞争力。在这种背景下,进行东南亚新地区主义及其制度转型的范式研究就显得十分必要。     

Party politics,elections and (mis-)trust in Japan

Abstract

Trust matters profoundly for many dimensions of political life. In this article we focus on political trust: how the trust or mistrust citizens have toward the political process, politicians and government affects politics. Prior research has shown that political trust influences such crucial dimensions of politics as the basic legitimacy of government, political participation, voting behavior, compliance with government, and reform orientation. In this article, we seek to answer three major questions. First, is political trust declining in Japan? Second, we are interested in exploring the determinants of trust and distrust in politics: why do people lose trust in politics? What kinds of voters lose political trust? Third, we explore the consequences: what happens when people lose trust in government and politics.     

Intangible Infrastructure of the GCC: Bridging the Divide

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments have made great efforts to cross the urban/rural divide, which have dramatically reduced illiteracy and the accessibility of basic health care. The GCC has enjoyed little success with addressing both urban and rural unemployment, and the growing number of young citizens who cannot find work. Freeing up jobs for educated young citizens and revitalisation of national economies require governments to deport expats by the hundreds of thousands. There are extreme pressures that divide the urban and rural residents of GCC states. Equitable access to the Internet served as a unifying factor in Vietnam and Scotland, and similar success can be seen in the GCC. Internet access via satellite or 4G is actionable with minimal infrastructure. Building of infrastructure for reliable delivery systems will be expensive, but the building and maintenance of the network will provide jobs and improve local economies. Access to high-speed Internet will give poor people in rural areas means to improve their economic situation and access education, which are two main factors of discontent with the government. Access to high-speed Internet in rural areas of the GCC will serve as one of the catalysts for peace in the region.     

Iran,the GCC and the Implications of the Nuclear Deal: Rivalry versus Engagement

Abstract

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, is consequential for Middle East regional security. It has raised a number of concerns for Arab Gulf states in relation to an emboldened Iran after sanction relief and the perceived shift of the US away from supporting its traditional allies in the Gulf. The international recognition and incorporation of Iran into regional power constellations resulting from the deal will intensify Saudi-Iranian rivalry to assert dominance. This rivalry and competition will increase in the short run, however, regional crises are expected to highlight the need for dialogue and engagement on regional affairs.     

Language choice and national development: A typology for Africa

The choice of an official language of politics and administration for African states is a good focal point from which to view other aspects of politics. A typology of language choice, based on whether the polity is linguistically homogeneous or heterogeneous; and on whether an indigenous or a non‐indigenous language is official, discriminates among four different language structures. Vignettes of language policy in Tanzania, Kenya, Senegal and Ethiopia elucidate each language structure.

Data is presented to show that different political tasks are associated with different language choices, and that the differential ramifications of language situation, for limiting group demands, inducing social mobilization and managing international dependency are, depending on language situation, important.     

主权财富基金与海合会金融合作

海合会作为区域一体化组织,一方面推进区域货币和金融一体化,另一方面又是主权财富基金的发源地和分布最密集的区域。海合会成员国主权财富基金在区域内的投资呈现出促进区域金融合作的潜能,它不仅投资广泛,而且出现了合资主权财富基金。但是,这种促进作用也面临诸多挑战,比如产业结构趋同导致投资品种单一、区域大国的影响,以及政治发展的障碍等。     

Japanese and American Perspectives on East Asian Regionalism

Regular convening of East Asian summits and rising concernsabout the American dollar have heightened interest in Asiancooperation. Japan will necessarily play a central role in regionalendeavors, and the United States must at least acquiesce ifregional coordination is to progress. Among American accounts,the most theoretically elaborate and systematically comparativeanalysis is A World of Regions, while Remapping East Asia providesthe most authoritative overview of recent developments. Japanese-languagestudies of East Asian regionalism agree that regional cooperationis far less institutionalized and rule-based in East Asia thanin Europe, but they include a wider range of opinion about thedesirability and feasibility of cooperation. Skeptics on theright warn that efforts to create a regional community wouldweaken the United States–Japan alliance, undermine universalvalues, and cede regional leadership to China. Optimists onthe left counter that regional cooperation holds out the onlyhope for ameliorating nationalist conflicts. Most numerous arecentrists arguing for active cooperation on economics and theenvironment, but only cautious moves on politics and security.Despite their caution, Japanese authors convey a sense thatchanges to the American-led global and regional order are occurringand likely will continue.     

Diversity Management: Regionalism and the Future of the International Order

Abstract

The ongoing redistribution of power on the international stage points to a more decentred international system featuring a multiplication of governance arrangements. A larger range of pivotal countries have the capacity and the confidence to pursue different priorities, a development that questions the prevalent post-Cold War expectation that the liberal international order would grow both wider and deeper. The central challenge for the future of the international order is managing diversity in ways that minimise conflict and leverage the benefits of interdependence. The evolution of regionalism and regional orders will be a critical dimension of the realignment of power, interests and normative agendas at the global level. Both more competition and more cooperation are likely to take place at the regional level, with the mix changing in different parts of the world. Provided that it is not merely a cover for coercive hegemonic aspirations and that it is designed to complement other levels of cooperation, regionalism can play an important role in preventing a more polycentric world from becoming a more fragmented and unstable one.     

Fluctuating Saudi and Emirati Alignment Behaviours in the Horn of Africa

ABSTRACT

The overthrow of Omar al-Bashir after three decades of rule has brought to light a dynamic that has been present for years: an interweaving of political, economic and security issues between the states of the Horn of Africa and the Gulf monarchies. Since 2011, the most active powers are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which seek political support to counter both Iran’s influence and the growing Turkish presence. The two Gulf monarchies’ search for alignments with African counterparts has favoured the continuous reshuffling of alliances with direct effects on the local actors’ strategic choices. These dynamics need to be considered to understand the determinants behind the currently increasing instability in the Red Sea area.