乌克兰危机的民族政治解读

乌克兰危机是民主政治、大国地缘政治博弈、民族政治等要素杂糅并复合互动的产物,作者从民族政治的角度对之加以解读。第一,历史上的民族积怨与对立是导致乌克兰危机的重要历史根源,但它在当下如何被“记忆”与“重新发现”才是理解这一根源的关键。第二,在乌克兰二十余年国家建设中,出现了国族主导与主体民族主导两种路径的张力与冲突,这是导致当前乌克兰危机的深层次国内政治根源。第三,在乌克兰民主实践中,出现了现代政党政治与传统民族政治合体的趋势,这一合体包含了内在张力,实际上是乌克兰国家转型不成熟的标志,这是当前乌克兰危机爆发的政治制度与政治文化根源。第四,不恰当地运用民族自决权,则是乌克兰危机迈向国际危机的重要根源。第五,从国内政治角度看,乌克兰危机源自国家建设的失败,其民族政治更应从国家建设意义上加以审视。鉴于乌克兰危机短时间难有转机,面对危机发酵以及后危机时代的冲突治理,民族政治因素的负面作用仍不容忽视,民族政治在未来的乌克兰政治生活中仍将是一个棘手的对象。     

乌克兰危机中的价值观冲突

2014年的乌克兰危机发端于是否与欧盟签署联系国地位协定,表面上是各派政治力量在国家发展道路上的分歧,但实质上代表着冷战后不同价值观在乌克兰的一次剧烈冲突。本文认为,价值观是影响人们对国家社会发展的观点和看法,因此乌克兰危机是价值观冲突的结果。导致价值观冲突的原因主要有三个方面:社会主体利益分化是其社会基础;西方文明与传统斯拉夫文明认同差异是其文化基础;西方的普世价值观与俄罗斯的保守主义价值观竞争是其政治基础。乌克兰危机反映出构建核心价值观对于政治稳定的重要性。外部大国正是利用乌克兰多元混乱的价值观矛盾,将危机作为地缘政治博弈的工具,最终导致国家政权更迭和族群分裂的悲惨下场。     

乌克兰危机:多维视野下的深层透视

乌克兰危机是苏联解体后欧亚地区转型发展和欧洲安全体系演变的重大事件,不仅反映了乌克兰国内的重重矛盾,也折射出"后金融危机时代"国际战略格局和大国关系变化的复杂光谱。从制度转型的角度看,乌克兰危机是政治失范导致社会失序的重要标本,20多年的社会转型困局加剧了乌社会既有的历史、宗教和文化分野,而这些矛盾在经济发展遇阻和民主政治危机的共同作用下,最终演化为乌克兰国家认同的危机。从地缘政治的角度看,俄、美、欧在乌克兰有着各自的地缘政治目标,它们之间的大博弈使欧洲有重蹈第一次世界大战后"20年危机"覆辙的危险。从国际秩序的角度看,尽管俄罗斯以强力方式取得了克里米亚,但不可能颠覆西方主导的现行国际秩序,俄罗斯有可能在美欧制裁之下遭受诸多损失。从帝国研究的角度看,苏联解体的"后遗症"并未痊愈,欧亚地区的安全和发展还面临诸多挑战。俄罗斯所倡导的"欧亚一体化"能否成功,关键要看其发展模式是否具有吸引力,是否能为其他成员国提供资金、技术、市场、发展空间等公共产品。     

现代国家构建与民主化中的欧洲经验及其启示

欧洲的经验表明,构建现代国家与民主化之间存在着复杂的关系。从过程的角度来说,欧洲现代国家构建内在包含着民族-国家构建和民主-国家构建的双重要素。在这个过程中,民族-国家基本制度框架的形成在时间上早于公共权力的民主化,在逻辑上优先于公共权力的民主化。从国家构建动力的角度来看,民主化抗争是现代国家构建的重要推动力,它不仅推动了欧洲国家的民主转型,而且促进了众多的民生制度建设。从国家能力与民主化的关系的角度来看,一方面,强国家能力是公共权力民主化的前提与基础,另一方面,公共权力民主化是增强国家能力的重要条件。欧洲现代国家构建的历史经验对当代中国政治发展实践的启示在于:现代国家构建与公共权力民主化两者不仅不矛盾,而且能够达到辩证统一。     

俄罗斯的社会转型:矛盾与问题

苏联解体以后,俄罗斯开始了全面的社会转型进程。但十多年的实践证明,俄罗斯的社会转型并未实现其政治精英的理想预期,而是引发了诸多的矛盾与问题。政治上,新国家体制的建设既缺乏周密设计的制度安排,又没有对民主观念充分尊重的政治文化,导致政局动荡,权力危机频发;经济上,全面私有化并未导致自由市场经济的建立,寡头坐大与国家资本主义的较量表明俄罗斯的经济发展模式尚未最终成型;社会上,权力重组并未根除旧体制的“顽疾”,新包装下所进行的实质上的“精英延续”使很多旧的管理模式与风格仍然保留在新体制中;外交上,“国家身份”的模糊使俄罗斯的对外政策始终处于矛盾之中。俄罗斯的转轨之痛对任何一个社会转型国家都是应该警醒的教训,总结俄社会转型过程中出现的矛盾与问题,有着重要的理论与现实意义。     

乌克兰危机及其对中国发展的启示

乌克兰危机是当前最为引人注目的国际政治问题。本文概述了乌克兰危机的起因及发展过程,并从内部的特殊历史文化与民族矛盾、外部的地缘政治势力干预以及西方现代民主政治实质的角度,探讨了冷战后乌克兰政治民主化进程所遭遇的挫折及其原因。基于当前极为复杂的内政外交背景,乌克兰危机对中国发展带来诸多重要的启示:首先,非西方国家政治民主化进程深受国际政治势力的影响;其次,民族和宗教问题复杂的国家实行民主选举制度更容易导致政治混乱乃至国家分裂;再次,一个国家的政治制度必须以一国的特定文化作为支撑;最后,选举不是解决中国当前发展面临问题的万能药方。     

转型深化进程中的国家治理模式重构：

多重制度转型改变了传统的全能主义国家治理模式，政府-市场-公民社会三元并存与互补的现代国家治理模式成为转型国家制度改革的目标。国家治理模式重构的进程异常复杂曲折，转型国家普遍存在程度不同的治理危机。尽管不同国家的制度转型与国家治理模式重构路径存在差异，但协调政府、市场与社会间的关系依然是其转型深化阶段国家治理模式构建的关键。对转型国家重构国家治理模式的进程进行研究，有助于中国在完善社会主义市场经济体制阶段选择更为有效的国家治理模式构建战略。     

当代俄罗斯民族认同问题探析

目前,全球化的浪潮席卷全球,转型时期的俄罗斯也身处其中,面临既要积极参与全球化进程,又要维护自己民族认同的双重挑战。俄罗斯是一个多民族国家,民族认同问题有其深刻的历史必然性。苏联解体后,转型时期的俄罗斯民族经历了痛苦的自我审视过程,民族认同问题不可回避。同时,面对日益严峻的民族认同问题,俄罗斯政府采取了一系列政策措施来应对,旨在构建新的俄罗斯国家民族认同。     

市民社会与俄罗斯的社会转型

市民社会的功能在于整合社会，俄罗斯最初是通过构建市民社会来瓦解传统的极权主义制度而促使社会转型的，但由于市民社会成分在长期过度的社会控制下，市民社会成分爆发出来的力量不是消除社会张力，而是引发社会冲突，它发挥的是否定和破坏功能，因此，在社会转型中，俄罗斯社会出现了经济严重滑坡、政治风诡云谲、社会危机四起的情形。结果，俄罗斯只能重新依赖于强化国家基本职能、加强社会控制来实现社会稳定和社会的理性转型。     

再论俄罗斯国家转型中的“普京主义”:基于国家治理的视角

作为俄罗斯在渐进改革阶段的主要产物,"普京主义"适时应对了叶利钦末期上演的经济转型危机与社会转型危机,逐步建构起大众支持的意识形态和价值观,使国家在公共政策制定方面的政治能力有所增强,同时致力于实现安全稳定、运行秩序和社会经济发展的多重转型目标。借助国家治理的理论视角,有助于超越西方自由主义民主理论的固有争论,化解俄罗斯转型时期难以回避的威权色彩与民主因素之间的内在张力。在普京当选俄罗斯新一届总统之后,"普京主义"继续折射出多种国家治理要素间的互动关系,处于渐进改革时期的俄罗斯必须寻求一种基于传统政治文化价值与现代化转型发展的均衡。     

Democratic change in Russia and Ukraine

The transitions in Russia and Ukraine since 1991 offer contrasting patterns of political and social reconstitution. Facing similar problems, Russia forced the pace and embarked on rapid economic and political reform whereas Ukraine sought a more gradual strategy. Neither country, however, has been able to avoid disintegratory pressures on the state and society disrupting the state and nation building endeavours. The challenge of creating new political orders of stable government came into conflict with the democratization project. The outlines of a ‘post’ post‐communist polity in which the goals of stability and democracy can be reconciled are barely visible.     

The Limits of Electoral Democracy in Ukraine

In the past two years Ukraine has held new elections for both its parliament and president. Some might claim that these elections are evidence of democratic progress. However, elections are only a necessary, not sufficient component of democracy, and to make judgements about democratic consolidation solely on the basis of elections is to fall victim to the fallacy of 'electoralism'. While it is true that Ukraine does possess an electoral democracy, democratic consolidation remains elusive and is susceptible to a variety of problems. These include a weak civil society and weak political parties, regional divisions, unstable political institutions and a lack of the rule of law. By some measures Ukraine may even have regressed from 1994, as an oligarchy has consolidated itself and authoritarian trends are readily discernible.     

Rhetoric and Reality: Can Ukraine Create an Effective Navy to Protect its Interests in the Black Sea?

Abstract

Since the ‘Orange Revolution’ Ukraine has been engaged in a comprehensive programme of naval transformation aimed at building an effective coastal defence navy able to protect its maritime interests in the Black Sea: an efficient and well run Ukrainian coastal navy that is inherently defensive in orientation can maintain good order at sea and protect Ukraine's security and can also make an important contribution to regional security and stability. Over the last few years Ukraine has been making steady progress in developing a balanced, flexible and deployable coastal navy able to engage in a full spectrum of defence activities. However, continued progress is likely to be hampered in the medium term by the high cost of naval transformation, the challenges of democratic consolidation and friction between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea.     

Management and Mismanagement of Diversity: The Case of Ethnic Conflict and State‐Building in the Arab World

The European Union has a unique opportunity to develop a positive strategy towards Ukraine. A pro-EU government is now in power in Kyiv, there is a revived civil society pressing for democratic reforms and the actions by Russia have both reinforced Ukraine’s pro-West line and led to the priority given Moscow being questioned by some member states. It is therefore essential to grant Ukraine a membership perspective to strengthen this trend and encourage Kyiv to confront and overcome the basic problems that face the country.     

An unfulfilling partnership: Ukraine and the West, 1991–2001

The political crisis in Ukraine in early 2001 and then the terrorist attacks against the US and the resulting dramatic change of international setting have sealed the trend that had emerged much earlier: the once promising partnership between Ukraine and the West has ended up in mutual unhappiness. As the West is discovering new ‘geopolitical pivots’ in the aftermath of 11 September, Ukraine has almost disappeared from the radar screen of Western attention. Yet for good reasons what happens in Ukraine, a currently uncertain and weakened country with a poor international reputation, still matters for the West. There has always been a close link between Ukraine's transition and Western attitudes towards Ukraine. This might be the moment to think afresh about past and future Western policies vis‐à‐vis Ukraine.     

The narratives behind the EU's external perceptions: how civil society and elites in Ukraine,Israel and Palestine “learn” EU norms

ABSTRACT

The EU's normative promotion is a keystone in the arch of its Foreign and Security Policy, reflected in establishing a “ring of friends” in its neighbourhood. However, the EU's normative impact in these countries is often hindered by domestic constraints. Conversely, deeper socialisation through persuasion and “learning” may advance towards the promotion of EU norms better. By tracing the “learning” component of the EU's external perceptions in its Eastern (Ukraine) and Southern (Israel and Palestine) neighbourhoods, this paper elaborates upon the receptiveness of EU norms. Considering the specific attention that the ENP draws towards the support of civil society, this paper focuses on “learning” narratives of EU norms among civil society elites in Ukraine, Israel and Palestine as the key targets of EU assistance – with a particular focus on various conceptualisations of learning in the learning process. Notwithstanding perceptions of the EU as a normative power, we find that the learning processes remain too complex to be captured within a single theoretical framework. Whereas communicative rationality implies learning about each other's identities through rational arguing, our analysis demonstrates that identity performance is one of the most emotive and crucial factors in perceptions of learning.     

Ukraine’s President Zelensky Takes the Russia/Ukraine War Viral

As Russia amassed thousands of troops and tanks on Ukraine’s border at the end of 2021 and the threat of nuclear war loomed large, Ukraine’s leadership ramped up a distinctly non-physical counter-offensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky and his tech savvy team focused on building a communications machine harnessing social media messaging, marketing savvy and celebrity to fight Russia digitally as well as directly on the battlefield. Never has a sitting president relied so heavily on various social apps to communicate both at home and abroad, and to build Ukraine’s brand. Whether or not this strategy is sustainable amidst a protracted war and short internet attention spans is yet to be seen, but Zelensky has made a case for marketing war that other leaders are sure to follow.     

Illegal Migration: Ukraine

Illegal migration poses a threat to the national security of all countries of Central and Eastern Europe, but as a measure of its parameters, Ukraine’s case is quite representative. This is due to Ukraine’s size and its geographically important positioning from the northern shores of the Black Sea deep into the Central European heartland—along one of the three main routes of illegal migration from Asia to Western Europe and its national policies, which significantly affect the problem.

Three factors highlight its importance: first, Ukraine itself is a source of illegal migration; second, it is a barrier to its spread from Asia and Middle East to Europe and the West; and third, it is a potential target for illegal migration. Though currently Ukraine is considered first of all as an origin and as a transit country, there is a growing tendency for it to become a destination country too.

This article examines the state of the illegal migration threat for Ukraine, as well as measures to respond to it and perspectives for future development. Conclusions are drawn about the complexity of the problem and the necessity of a multi-faceted approach to solve it.     

The EU and Russia's conflicting regime preferences in Ukraine: assessing regime promotion strategies in the scope of the Ukraine crisis

This paper evaluates the competitiveness of the European Union (EU) and Russia's regime preferences in their foreign policies towards Ukraine in the scope of the on-going Ukraine crisis. It is argued that the underpinning geopolitical environment Ukraine currently resides in, wedged between two much larger powers (the EU and Russia), renders it a vulnerable target state for regime promotion from both sides. Indeed, since the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine, both the EU and Russia have had discernible regime promotion strategies in their foreign policies. The EU's regime promotion has focussed on facilitating democracy in Ukraine, along with more material interests (trade and strategic aims) while Russia has reacted with increasingly zero-sum policies which pursue its preference for having a loyal and Russian-facing regime in Ukraine. Ultimately, the increasing competitiveness of the EU and Russia has been a key factor in the onset of the Ukraine crisis, which offers important insight into the relationship between large powers and the smaller third states which lie in their overlapping spheres of influence.     

乌克兰国家安全危机分析

冷战结束后的相当长时间内,乌克兰在对外战略的抉择中不断陷入困境。在与国际体系的互动过程中,因处于大国地缘竞争的过渡地带,造成自身在领土安全和国家稳定方面的悲剧局面。乌克兰的外交重点处于西方或俄罗斯这两种外交方向的不断转换之中,通过平衡这两种政策的运用来增进国家的实力和利益。与此对应,大国通过遵守规则予以奖励,漠视规则进行遏制与惩罚的方式来应对乌克兰的对外行为。其结果是乌克兰与周边大国的互动逐渐陷入循环往复式的困境,处境变得日益糟糕。乌克兰内部的认同冲突根源于其处于特殊的地缘政治地带之上的历史互动与实践,并最终造就乌克兰的弱国家地位,使得其在国际体系中处于边缘化的角色,国家安全与诉求长期遭到漠视,在内外冲突的互动过程中,乌克兰的国家安全问题不断恶化。