基地组织现状与发展趋势

"9.11"事件发生以后,美国推翻了阿富汗塔利班政权。基地组织失去了在阿富汗的大多数营地,一度失去了策划、实施重大国际恐怖活动的能力,被迫向"近敌战略"的方向转型,从袭击美国本身转向袭击美国在中东等地的军事基地以及美国的盟友。总体来看,基地组织已经失去了核心领导人和很多重要成员,从一个等级制组织转变为一个宽泛的国际圣战网络,但目前对国际社会仍然构成非常严重的威胁。     

驻韩美军基地调整的多维影响

根据2003年6月美韩两国达成的协议 ,美国将在2011年前分两个阶段对驻韩美军实施基地迁移和兵力重新部署 :第一阶段 ,把分布在靠近军事分界线的美军基地集中到东豆川的开塞基地和议政府的红云基地 ,预计将有大约6000～7000名美军士兵迁出 ,实施这一计划至少需要3年时间 ;第二阶段 ,把汉江以北的驻韩美军 ,主要是第2机械化步兵师转移到汉江以南的乌山和平泽。调整后的驻韩美军军事基地将由41个减少到23个。一、动因深度透视与往次不同的是 ,美国此次对驻韩美军的调整 ,几乎完全是逆核危机持续升温之势而动。应该说 ,美国此举是在充分考虑了国…     

美国在阿富汗军事基地的战略演变

“9·11事件”后,阿富汗成为美国反恐战争的主战场,也是美国中央司令部责任区军事部署的重点国家.美国在阿富汗的军事基地依托多边联盟体系与任务导向性统一战线,经历了部署主要军事基地、拓展前沿行动基地、保留合作安全基地三个阶段,相继承担了军事作战、战后维稳和从阿富汗脱身三大任务.与美国在西亚、地中海和东非地区众多的海军基地不同,美国在阿富汗以空军和陆军基地为主,主要目的是谋求美国在阿富汗反恐战争中取得胜利、维护阿局势稳定和巩固美在阿主导权.美国在阿富汗的军事基地寻求两个维度的战略均势:一是维持美国、俄罗斯、中国、印度、伊朗、巴基斯坦等域内外大国之间的平衡;二是维持北约、欧亚联盟及上合组织三个地区组织之间的战略平衡.未来美国在阿富汗的军事部署将重点承担军事训练、情报搜集、打击“伊斯兰国”和“基地”组织、执行特种作战、保护侨民等多重任务,军事基地部署将更具隐蔽性和机动性.     

美国在全球的主要军事基地及军事设施

二战后,美国的军事存在几乎遍及全球,它在世界各地建立的军事基地曾达5000多个(其中近半数在海外)。冷战结束后,由于国际形势的变化、美国军事战略的调整以及驻在国人民的反对,美军事基地的数量大大减少。目前美海外军事基地374个,分布在140多个国家和地区,驻军30万人;本土基地871个,其中海军基地242个,空军基地384个。     

美国全球军事战略调整对亚太安全的影响

冷战结束以来,美国曾三次对海外驻军进行局部的、小规模的调整。“9·11”事件爆发后,美酝酿大规模军事调整。2004年8月16日,美国总统布什正式宣布,将在10年内完成对海外20万驻军和700个军事基地的重新部署,内容包括整编和关闭大型军事基地、增设小型军事基地和临时军事设施、重组军队结构、裁汰冗员、加强装备力量,等等。这次调整有三大特点:一是美战略重心出现     

也门安全形势严峻的原因及趋势

21309年12月25日，美国境内发生圣诞节“炸机未遂事件”，“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”宣称对此负责。该组织扬言将对西方发起更多袭击，把异教徒赶出阿拉伯半岛，弱化和摧毁也门萨利赫政府，在也门建立“基地”组织安全基地，袭击美国和沙特等国家。今年1月19日，联合国制裁委员会把“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”列入国际恐怖组织黑名单。美国和也门政府加强了反恐力度，全球最贫穷落后的国家之一——也门成为反恐热点，引起国际社会的普遍关注。     

英国撤离新加坡基地及其对东盟合作的影响

新加坡基地是英国重点经营的远东军事基地,战后英国在百般无奈中宣布撤离。英国撤离新加坡基地对东盟区域合作的早期阶段产生了积极影响：凸显新马防务合作的紧迫性,缓和了新马紧张关系;促使马来西亚提出地区中立化主张,提高了东盟政治合作层次;改善了新加坡的地区环境,推动新加坡面向地区的政策调整与实施进程;促进了马六甲海峡安全的内部合作。     

美国海外军事基地部署的四个维度——以大中东地区为例

鉴于美国是世界强国中唯一处于西半球的国家,且对大中东地区的能源依赖度逐年下降,所以美国理应减少对该地区的军事部署。但是,长期以来,美国在大中东不仅军事基地规模最大,而且驻军人数最多。为解释这一现象,本文以大中东地区为例,从战略层面、军事层面、政治层面和利益层面四个维度出发,考察美国海外军事基地部署的动因。研究发现,将敌人遏制在战区范围内是美国海外军事部署的隐性逻辑。通过在盟国土地上部署军事基地,美国不仅可以对各区域"分而治之",而且成为利益攸关方和议题设置者。美国在大中东地区部署军事基地,承载着谋求地区领导权、增强军事投射能力、巩固军事联盟体系和维护现实利益等多重功能。尽管特朗普政府对大中东地区事务缺乏干预的热心,但是对于实力衰落的美国来说,海外军事基地的政治象征意义与军事作战意义同等重要,美国在大中东地区的军事基地将继续发挥传统军事功能和非传统政治与外交功能。     

美国的安全与非律宾的防务

美国在菲律宾的军事基地,是当前菲美矛盾斗争中的一个比较突出的问题.美帝霸占大量的基地,不仅严重侵犯菲律宾的领土主权,而且用来作为在东南亚进行侵略战争的跳板.美国军事人员在这些基地内外任意杀人,无恶不作、菲律宾人民为争取撤除这些基地进行了长期的斗争.本文的作者对基地问题的背景以及菲律宾统治阶级在基地问题上的态度作了一些叙述,同时为美国政府辩护和献策.有关作者的介绍,请参阅本刊上一期第120页.     

警惕恐怖主义在非洲滋生

随着塔利班的溃败和本·拉登的基地组织在阿富汗的覆灭，美国及其盟国在全球反恐怖主义战争的下一个打击目标到底是哪里成了国际社会关注的焦点。虽然未经美国政府及军方证实，但舆论普遍认为非洲的索马里将最有可能成为美国接下来袭击的对象。……     

Not in Anyone's Backyard: The Emergence and Identity of a Transnational Anti-Base Network

Providing an overview of the emergence, characteristics, trajectory, and potential limitations of the transnational anti-base network, this article focuses on two broad questions relevant to transnational politics. First, what processes and mechanisms enabled local and transnational activists to form the international No Bases network? Second, how did activists juxtapose existing local anti-base identity and frames to emerging transnational ones? Following existing transnational movement theories, I argue that the global anti-base network slowly emerged through processes of diffusion and scale shift in its early stages. The onset of the Iraq War, however, injected new life into the transnational anti-base movement, eventually leading to the inaugural International Conference for the Abolition of Foreign Bases in 2007. Although loose transnational ties existed among anti-base activists prior to 2003, the U.S. war in Iraq presented anti-base activists the global frames necessary to accelerate the pace of diffusion, scale-shift, and brokerage, and hence, the consolidation of a transnational anti-base network. Paradoxically, however, even as No Bases leaders attempted to forge a new transnational identity, anti-base activists, as "rooted cosmopolitans," continued to anchor their struggle in local initiatives.     

The US military's social media civil war: technology as antagonism in discourses of information-age conflict

This article uses the controversy within the United States (US) military over the use of social media by individual military professionals as a window into larger debates about the nature of information-age conflict. Information and associated technologies are now central to the US military imaginary. But the controversy over social media is one indicator that the dominant discourse of information-age conflict is neither stable nor total. The introduction of a new technology can serve as an antagonism that turns latent, potential contradictions into substantive differences for policymaking. Thus, though the US military generally has embraced information and communication technologies (ICTs), the introduction of a particular ICT can still be a source of controversy. Military imaginaries, technologies and the relationships between them remain dynamic, contingent and sometimes contentious.     

Civil-Military Tensions and the US Civil-Military Bargain

Civil-military relations (CMR) are concerned with the interactions among the people of a state, the political institutions of that state, and the military of the state. In the United States, these interactions can be understood as a bargain regarding the allocation of military prerogatives and responsibilities. A history of US civil-military relations shows that this bargain has been periodically re-negotiated to take account of political, social, technological, or geopolitical changes. Often, such a renegotiation creates civil-military tensions. Yet, always underlying healthy civil-military relations is a fundamental degree of trust and respect between the uniformed military and the other two parties to the civil-military bargain. The absence of such mutual trust and respect has contributed to recent US civil-military tensions.     

浅析冷战后美国与印尼军事关系的演变

冷战结束后的15年中,美国与印尼的军事合作关系发生了显著变化:由中断到恢复、不断升温。现实主义的权力观根据国际环境发生变化后国家利益的侧重点也会变化这一视角进行解读。建构主义认为,观念会影响身份的建构,美国与印尼观念的变化对它们身份和军事合作产生了重要影响。美印(尼)军事合作关系的恢复和升温,对东南亚地区安全环境将产生深远的影响。     

美国选举安全问题:以2016年和2020年总统大选为例

2016年美国总统大选暴露了长期存在于该国选举体系中的风险,"选举安全"迅速成为当代美国国家安全与国土安全领域的重要议题。美国选举安全涉及网络安全、社会安全、政治安全与军事安全,体现出"复合安全问题"的特质。美国联邦与各州政府试图从降低关键基础设施风险、重建选民信任、减少部门壁垒以及填补机制缺失四个层面入手,系统性化解存在于选举系统的各类安全威胁。2020年美国大选期间,原有选举安全风险得到一定程度的缓解,但美国国家安全体制及文化与其选举安全体系的运行逻辑之间仍存在多层矛盾,特别是美国选举体系的产业市场与创新之间的矛盾、国家安全与"言论自由"之间的矛盾、"全政府"与"地方权"之间的矛盾、"网络自由"与"网络主权"之间的矛盾。这些矛盾会长期存在,将使利益攸关方不断发生龃龉,阻碍相关政策深入推进,最终导致美国在选举安全治理上将一直面临难以克服的困境。     

An Endangered Partnership: The Anglo-American Defence Relationship in the Early Twenty-first Century

Abstract

This article examines the contemporary Anglo-American defence relationship. It begins by setting the general historical and contemporary context, including the impact of the Iraq war, before focusing on the military dimension. The main body of the paper addresses UK/US military planning and operations, UK defence budgetary issues, nuclear weapons collaboration and the impact of changing strategic relationships between the UK, US and Europe. The author argues that the longstanding defence partnership is threatened by a number of factors, including interoperability problems, the UK's national and defence spending priorities, the likely impact of a decision to replace Trident and the decline in the importance of the transatlantic strategic partnership in NATO. The paper concludes that changing US strategic priorities and further reductions in Britain's military capabilities are likely to erode the perceived value of the Anglo-American defence partnership on both sides of the Atlantic.     

Explaining the United States' Decision to Strike Back at Terrorists

When an anti-US international terrorism incident occurs, the preferred US counter-terrorism response is law enforcement action. Sometimes, however, US decision-makers supplement or supplant this approach with a 'power' approach via overt military action. Among the more than 2,400 anti-US incidents over a 16-year period, the US has applied military force in response to only three: the 1986 Libyan bombing of a West German discotheque; the 1993 Iraqi attempt to assassinate former President Bush in Kuwait; and the 1998 bombing of two US embassies in East Africa by bin Laden operatives. What differentiates these incidents from other anti-US attacks? Although the presidents who ordered the strikes offered justifications common to each, this article uncovers five other factors that may have greater explanatory power.     

Not quite the ‘Great Britain of the Far East’: Japan's security,the US–Japan alliance and the ‘war on terror’ in East Asia

Japan, in responding to US expectations for support in the ‘war on terror’, has displayed a degree of strategic convergence on global security objectives, thus prompting policy-makers and observers to dub it the ‘Great Britain of the Far East’. This article argues, however, that Japan is far from assuming this role. For Japan, the ‘war on terror’ serves more as a political pretext for legitimating long-planned changes in military security policy that are often only marginally related to the US's anti-terrorism agenda. Instead, Japan has focused much more on using the terror threat rationale as a means to push forward its response to the regional and traditional security challenges of North Korea and China, even if at times it attempts to depict both as ‘new security challenges’ or as involving elements of counterterrorism. The final conclusion is that US military hegemony may be weakened by Japan's and the Asia-Pacific's potential divergence from the US global security agenda.     

Welcome home! Routines,ontological insecurity and the politics of US military reunion videos

Abstract

This article investigates the military ‘reunion’ videos that proliferated in the United States throughout the late 2000s and early 2010s. The typical video entails a returning soldier who surprises a family member, usually a child or female spouse, at a public event. I articulate the reunion video as a key feature of populism in contemporary US society. The videos can be considered examples of the ‘encounters’ theorized by both Anthony Giddens and Erving Goffman. Both private and public ‘social occasions’ with performative qualities of ‘day-to-day life’, the videos disclose the institutional and societal routines of not only a family but broader layers and circles of the US political community. They relate not only to loss but also to redemption. The article therefore investigates when and how, and provides a provisional argument for why, these videos have proliferated by consulting the everyday features of ontological security. It focuses on both the local and the international contexts within which they attend to, but also generate, US ontological insecurity.     

美国国家安全认知的新视阈：人工智能与国家安全

人工智能作为一种革命性技术,正在从根本上变革国际社会的发展进程及方式。面对这一发展趋势,美国已将人工智能提升到国家安全的高度。人工智能对美国国家安全的影响主要存在于三个方面:首先,人工智能是影响和塑造未来美国国家安全的核心变量。人工智能能够优化美国在国际政治格局中的力量配比,弥合并纠正美国社会内部的分裂和失序状况,并助推美国军事实力实现“跨越式”发展。其次,有效克服人工智能的负面效应是确保未来美国国家安全的关键。人工智能可能引发诸多社会和道德问题,其固有的缺陷也将增加战争决策的风险成本,还可能增加武装冲突的频率和强度。最后,美国强调中国人工智能的快速发展对未来美国国家安全构成严重“威胁”。中美在人工智能领域的竞争已无法避免,美国认为中国正在试图“挑战”美国在高新技术领域的领导地位;为应对美国在人工智能领域对华遏制政策,中国应制定和形成人工智能研发以及应用规则和规范;通过制度化协调与合作来规制中美关系,努力避免“科技冷战”的发生。