2003年东南亚地区军事形势分析

2003年 ,东南亚地区军事形势是总体缓和与局部动荡并存。反恐成为东南亚地区所面临的热点问题 ,各国在反恐合作上有所加强。区域内、外的军事安全合作进一步发展 ,频繁举行联合军事演习。同时 ,美国加快了在该地区军事存在的步伐 ,并积极谋求新的合作关系。此外 ,各国争相采购武器装备 ,加速军队的现代化建设。但是 ,在总体缓和的形势下 ,国家间的纠纷、摩擦不可避免。一、面临复杂反恐形势 ,强化区域合作2003年 ,东南亚的恐怖主义组织异常活跃 ,有多个相互联系、组织严密的伊斯兰极端组织 ,如“伊斯兰祈祷团、马来西亚圣战组织(KMM)和阿…     

东南亚地区伊斯兰信仰的传播及华人在其中发挥的作用

东南亚地区是世界上民族与宗教最为多样化的地区之一,在所有宗教之中,信奉伊斯兰教的人数是最多的,本文讨论了穆斯林在东南亚的早期活动,结合伊斯兰教在印尼、马来西亚等地的传播进行研究,伊斯兰教在东南亚的传播具有和平、包容和本地化的特点.而华人在伊斯兰教的传播过程中起到了非常重要的作用,郑和7次下西洋是东南亚伊斯兰教传播中的重要历史事件.     

东南亚的伊斯兰教：现状与特点

伊斯兰教作为一种外来的宗教已在东南亚地区流传了数百年,现在已经成为影响东南亚多数国家政治经济发展、民族团结和社会稳定的重要因素。本文在对东南亚地区伊斯兰教的现状进行扼要介绍的基础上,分别从分布及发展、宗教特色、政治性等方面探讨东南亚地区伊斯兰教的一些内在特点,指出伊斯兰教已经对部分东南亚国家产生了重要的影响,认为现阶段这一地区还没有形成较大规模的伊斯兰运动。     

东南亚恐怖主义新态势及其影响与中国的应对

近年来，随着国际恐怖主义形势的变化，尤其是“伊斯兰国”遭受重创后的演变及发展，东南亚地区恐怖主义发展呈现出一些新的发展态势，东南亚首现城市大规模恐怖袭击事件，地区恐怖势力的跨国整合联动及域内外恐怖势力的合流、共振与滋生新的恐怖活动，地区部分国家的国内冲突加剧给予国际恐怖势力更多介入空间，回流恐怖分子引发系列问题以及网络恐怖主义威胁的上升等。东南亚恐怖主义新态势给东南亚地区的安全稳定带来威胁，也给中国尤其是西南边境省份的安全、稳定与发展带来严重威胁。在此背景下，中国需关注东南亚地区的恐怖主义新态势，进一步增强与东南亚国家的政治互信，凝聚反恐合作共识，加快构建与东南亚国家的反恐合作专门机制，增强中国在东南亚地区国际反恐合作中的作用，提升边境省份参与东南亚地区反恐合作的能力，加强对中国在东南亚地区的人员及投资等海外利益的保护，有效遏制东南亚恐怖主义发展及阻断国际恐怖势力经东南亚向中国渗透。     

东南亚边境安全与地区恐怖主义

边境安全已经成为影响东南亚国家安全的重要因素,是我们观察和理解东南亚地区恐怖主义的一个重要视角。东南亚国家的边境安全漏洞与恐怖主义活跃之间呈现出明显的因果逻辑:国际与地区恐怖势力利用各国边境安全短板进行频繁的跨国活动,恶化了地区反恐生态。基于此,提高东南亚各国的边境安全水平成为抑制地区恐怖主义活力的关键举措。当前东南亚各国倾力打造综合性边境管控系统,强化人境审查程序并严打护照造假,构建完善的地区边境治理机制,重创了恐怖分子的跨国活动能力。但东南亚国家普遍存在的反恐资源匮乏、有效法律机制缺位等因素影响了打击跨国恐怖主义的成效。     

占婆文化交流中的“二次本土化”现象探析——评《占婆与马来世界的文化交流》

占婆位于东南亚地区的中心地带,历史上受到多种文化的影响。马来世界本土化的伊斯兰教在占婆传播的过程中,形成了具有伊斯兰教特点又与伊斯兰教具有很大区别的婆尼教。通过观察伊斯兰教在占婆的传播,可以分析伊斯兰教在东南亚内部传播过程中的"二次本土化"现象。经过二次本土化的文化现象,在表现形式上与文化源头的相似性减弱了,而民族文化的成分增强了。本文还在梳理关于占婆婆尼教研究成果的基础上,从研究视角、研究方法和研究资料等方面对《占婆与马来世界的文化交流》一书进行评介。     

论近代殖民主义对东南亚扩张的动因

１６世纪初，葡萄牙殖民者的入侵是东南亚的重要历史转折点，它标志着近代殖民主义在东南亚侵略扩张活动的开始。在东南亚历史上，自１４世纪麻诺巴歇帝国衰落以后，将近一个世纪，没有强大的政治势力继起。明代中国，虽然国力强盛，而且经过郑和七下西洋，影响及于广大东南亚地区。但明朝君主没有凭藉武力开拓海外殖民地的观念，所要求的“顶多只是一个名义上的宗主权而已。１５世纪初叶建立的马六甲王国，在国王皈依伊斯兰教后成为一个素丹王国，它是马六甲海峡地区一个跨岛大国，推动了海岛地区商业贸易和伊斯兰教的发展，但伊斯兰教势力…     

当今东南亚地区反恐态势及发展趋势

东南亚是恐怖活动的高发地区,地区国家间在反恐上的合作取得了较大的成果,恐怖组织受到一定震慑,但是形势不容乐观。美国以反恐为名将战略触角伸向东南亚,将对地区反恐形势以及战略态势产生重大影响。反恐将是东南亚地区的重要主题,持久战不可避免,并将直接影响地区政治稳定和经济发展。     

印度支那地区伊斯兰教的发展

“9·11事件”以后,东南亚地区伊斯兰教与政治的关系受到了国际社会前所未有的关注,但人们大多把目光投向印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾以及泰国。实际上,了解当代印度支那地区伊斯兰教的发展和现状对于我们全面把握东南亚地区伊斯兰教与政治的关系不无裨益。     

美国"重返东南亚"及其对亚太安全的影响

上世纪 90年代中期以来 ,特别是“9·11事件”后和反恐战争开始以来 ,美国逐渐加强在东南亚的军事存在和军事活动 ,这被称为“重返东南亚”。其主要特点有 :扩大美在这一地区的军事存在、军事合作及加大反恐力度等。其战略企图是为了加强在亚太地区的主导地位、深化反恐战争以及接触、防范和制约中国。美国“重返东南亚”虽然有助于打击恐怖主义 ,但将使东南亚地区的政治形势更加错综复杂 ,增加了美国军事干预其他亚太事务的可能性。     

论中印缅孟地区经济合作的发展与和平共处五项原则

一、引言中印缅孟地区是指中国、印度、缅甸、孟加拉国4个国家相互接壤和毗邻的地区 ,其地域主要包括中国的云南省 ,印度东部的比哈尔邦、西孟加拉国邦和整个东北部地区 ,缅甸全境和孟加拉国全境。该地区是世界上最贫困的地区之一 ,但它连接着东亚、东南亚、南亚三大区域 ,以及处于太平洋地区与印度洋地区的中间地带 ,这一特殊的区位优势为该地区开展区域经济合作创造了良好的条件。和平共处五项原则是1953年12月中国政府在同印度就两国在中国西藏地方的关系问题的谈判中首次提出 ,1954年中国政府同印度政府和缅甸政府分别发表联合声明 ,确…     

新时期东南亚地区反恐斗争的难点及走势

"9·11"事件已过去近10年,其间世界各地的恐怖事件不断,东南亚地区也不例外,这对东南亚地区的安全、稳定与发展造成了极大的威胁。面对恐怖主义的威胁,东南亚各国政府日渐认识到合作反恐的重要性。     

Southeast Asia after 11 september

Southeast Asia has become the ‘second front’ in the global campaign against terrorism. Former concerns on the part of the United States about the human rights failings of regional regimes have been shelved in order to secure cooperation against supporters of Al-Qaeda, and United States troops have been directly committed to the field in the Philippines. Although there is confirmed evidence of international terrorist activity undertaken by small cells in Southeast Asia, this issue has also served to entrench illiberal regimes and trends. While the US may destroy terrorist groups its strategy may also further undermine democracy in the region, thus contributing to the political and social conditions that are conducive to the emergence of terrorism.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION OF TERRORISTS CONFLICTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

This article addresses the issue of transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia. The objective of the article is to investigate the structure of the transnational element of terrorism to determine their impact on conflict resolution attempts in the region. The transnational terrorist organization Jemaah Islamyiah will be used as a single case for the analysis. From this analysis, obstacles toward conflict resolution originating from the structure of transnational terrorism are identified, and the article provides suggestions on how to circumvent these impediments.     

反恐对印度尼西亚政治经济与对外关系的影响

“9·11”事件后,美国经过阿富汗战争,打垮了“基地”组织。然而国际恐怖活动并未减少,反而呈扩大和蔓延之势。在印尼和菲律宾相继发生恐怖爆炸案之后,东南亚国家成为恐怖活动的危险地区。“9·11”事件后美国展开的全球反恐怖主义行动对许多国家的国内政治经济与外交取向带来了深远的影响。被视为美国反恐行动第二战场的东南亚国家在这方面显然并不例外,其中对印度尼西亚的冲击尤为重大。本文主要分析反恐行动对印度尼西亚的对外关系与国内经济、政治的影响。—、印度尼西亚的反恐立场在反恐问题上,刚开始印度尼西亚政府的反恐措施不力,直…     

Competing to Kill: Terrorist Organizations Versus Lone Wolf Terrorists

Are organizationally linked suicide attacks deadlier than those launched by lone wolf terrorists? This article elaborates a perpetrator-based distinction among suicide terrorist attacks between organizations and lone wolf terrorists, who operate in the absence of a financially or physically supportive terrorist organization. The expectation is that terrorist organizations would serve as commitment tools that increase the loyalty of suicide bombers to their missions through material and non-material incentives. Findings demonstrate that when terrorist organizations are involved in the planning and execution of suicide terrorist attacks, not only do they increase the lethality of these attacks but they also accentuate the tactical advantages of suicide terrorism. These findings suggest that despite the recent upsurge and concern about lone wolf terrorism, the lethality and security impacts of suicide terrorism continue to be driven by terrorist organizations.     

What Makes Terrorism Salient? Terrorist Strategies,Political Competition,and Public Opinion

This article analyzes the determinants of terrorism saliency in public opinion. It is usually assumed that after a terrorist attack, terrorism becomes automatically salient. However, this assumption is only true in those countries where terrorist attacks are exceptional events. In democracies that have suffered domestic terrorism for decades, the evolution of terrorism saliency does not only depend on the frequency or intensity of terrorist attacks. In this article it is claimed that the tactics carried out by terrorist groups (the type of victim, especially) and the dynamics of political competition (especially the ideology of the incumbent) are also factors that explain the evolution of terrorism saliency. The article also analyzes how these two factors interact with citizens’ predispositions to explain variation in their reactions to terrorist threat. The empirical test relies on a novel database from monthly public opinion surveys in Spain from 1993 to 2012.     

From car bombs to logic bombs: The growing threat from information terrorism

The vulnerability of the critical infrastructure has led to increasing concern that it will be the target of terrorist attacks. This article explores definitional aspects of information terrorism and identifies two groups likely to find information terrorism attractive: conventional terrorist groups and information culture groups. As computer sophisticated youth move into the ranks of conventional terrorist groups, the groups will increase their reliance on computer technology, and information terrorism will be incorporated into a hybrid tactical repertoire. Information culture groups, however, confine their attacks to cyberspace. In contrast to the powerful group dynamics of the traditional underground terrorist group, networked groups, particularly information culture terrorists, may only be in contact electronically, and are subject to a radically different group psychology, virtual group dynamics, that significantly affects their decision making and risk taking, and has dangerous security implications.     

Making sense of terrorism: a narrative approach to the study of violent events

ABSTRACT

How does violence become understood as terrorism? In this article, we show how a narrative approach to the study of violent events offers a conceptually productive way to understand the process of “seeing” an event as a terrorist act, one that explicitly integrates the phenomenology of violence. While the collective practice of defining terrorism in academia and the policy arena has struggled to produce a universal definition, we identify a set of “common sense” characteristics. We argue that if the framing of violent events prominently features these characteristics as discursive anchors, this primes processes of sensemaking toward interpreting violence as terrorism. While terrorism markers are often articulated as being pragmatic and apolitical indicators of terrorist acts, we show that they are indeed at the core of political contests over historical and physical facts about violent events. The narrative approach we develop in this article underscores that intuitive leanings toward interpreting violence as terrorism are a sign of political agency precisely because they are produced through the stories political agents tell.     

Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism

Does more representative government improve states' ability to fight domestic terrorism? In prior work, democracies are seen as more susceptible to terrorism because their respect for human rights prevents them from fully eliminating terrorist groups. However, such extrajudicial aggression could also alienate large portions of the population and create the ideal conditions for an insurgency. I argue that since terrorism is the lowest-capacity form of political violence, it is natural that states that do best at deterring political violence experience the most terrorism. While representative democracies should see terrorist groups initiate spells of attacks at a greater frequency, full political representation should also galvanize major political actors to unite and eliminate terrorist threats. I test this assertion through statistical models that treat the process of terrorist group initiation and its duration and intensity separately. Results not only show that less consolidated democracies and autocracies experience longer and more intense terrorist campaigns, but that, in support of the theory's mechanisms, groups are more likely to shift to terrorism from insurgency when their political base gains more political representation. The results call the division among research programs of various political violence types into question.