风险社会之刑法应对

风险社会为理解和把握现代刑法提供了全新的观察视角,也为反思传统刑法提供了重要的理论工具。为了应对风险,有必要制定风险刑法。风险刑法在观念、功能和归责等方面与传统刑法有显著不同,对传统刑法基本原则构成挑战,并对传统刑法价值体系进行裂解,隐含有巨大风险。在风险社会,可以采用传统刑法与风险刑法并存的方式,以弥补传统刑法在功能上的不足和责任追究上的漏洞,两者互相支持,共同达成维护社会秩序和安全的目标。     

危险品公路运输风险分析方法及应用

本文运用风险分析的方法，对危险品公路运输事故和灾害风险进行定量研究，给出危险品公路运输的社会风险和个人风险，从而对公路运输风险进行评价。以某石化厂1-丁烯公路运输进行实例研究和现场应用，从而为交通运输和化工企业提供公路危险品运输的路线选择及安全管理提供决策依据。     

知识产权的制度风险与法律控制

在风险社会的语境中,知识产权法是一种制度文明,也是一种可能存在的制度风险。诸如文化风险、生态风险、基因技术风险、网络风险等,主要是知识产权制度的"内生性"风险。如何克服现行知识产权法律制度和法律秩序的先天性缺陷和潜在危机,提高风险意识,增强风险识别能力,寻求风险治理机制,是国际知识产权界共同面临的时代问题。知识产权制度风险的法律治理必须秉持价值理性与工具理性统一、权利观念与责任观念统一、法律控制与技术规制统一等理念,并通过传统知识保护、公共领域保留、开放存取及知识共享协议、知识创新奖励等制度的替代和补充,形成一个应对风险社会的观念体系和制度系统。这是应对知识产权制度风险的法律举措,也是实现知识产权制度价值目标的法律变革路径。     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

危险评估与控制——新刑罚学的主张

在我们的社会中,少部分犯罪分子实施了大部分犯罪。如果能够“标定”出这些犯罪分子,并对他们加以控制,全社会的犯罪将会得到有效控制,而且犯罪控制成本将大大降低。所谓“标定”就是危险评估。经过长期探索,危险评估已经出现很多工具。如何使危险评估既保持较高的信度与效度,同时又提高可操作性,是危险评估研究与实践需要解决的重要问题。危险控制的措施主要有：延长具有高度危险罪犯的监禁期;构建罪犯的“危险”回应机制;确立“危险罪犯”标定与控制制度;性犯罪登记、公告制度。     

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE,DOVE, AND DIVORCE MEDIATION

The primary objective of this article is to describe DOVE, a 19‐item instrument designed to assess and manage the risk of domestic violence between partners during and following their participation in divorce mediation. Assessing risk, more specifically how DOVE can be used to assess risk, is described first. The resulting risk scores (TOTDOVE) are used to assign individuals to risk categories. Problems associated with using categorical, frequency, and probability risk assessment formats in interpreting and communicating risk are discussed in the second segment of the article. A dual, categorical/probability format is advocated. Managing risk using Safety Plan interventions that are linked with risk category and predictor subscores on control, substance abuse, anger, relationship problems, mental health problems, and conflict is covered in the final segment.     

An empirical investigation of written risk communication in forensic psychiatric evaluations

Abstract

There has been an increased interest in approaches for improving violence risk assessment, but less so how to communicate risk assessment results. We studied the written risk communication of 142 cases of forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden. The results suggested that risk for criminal recidivism was communicated in the vast majority of the cases (122 out of 142), but that risk was primarily communicated when the risk was perceived to be high. A six-item protocol to assess the content of the risk communication suggested that the communication was well elaborated in 21/122 of the cases, moderately elaborated in 53/122, poorly or very poorly elaborated in 43/122, and non-elaborated in 5/122 of the cases. Level of elaboration was only vaguely related to sociodemographic characteristics pertaining to the assessed (sex, age, citizenship) and the type of crime committed, but highly correlated to clinical diagnoses (DSM-IV) as well as contextual factors of the evaluation (which professional group and which clinic the assessment was performed).     

不能犯判断标准之我见

近年国内一些学者开始对传统刑法学将不能犯作为未遂的类型之一的观点进行质疑,使不能犯成为理论界关注的问题。而笔者亦认为有严格区分未遂犯和不能犯的必要,故试图采用比较分析法,结合国内外关于不能犯的理论进行比较研究,建议我国采用具体危险说为标准区分不能犯和能犯未遂的界限,以实现刑法的社会保护机能和社会保障机能。     

产品涉入、感知风险与金融商品再购意愿

以具有金融商品购买经验的顾客为研究对象,探讨后危机时期顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿的影响。通过引入金融风险属性和顾客风险偏好,剖析顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿的影响,并在此基础上构建顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿影响的整合研究架构。通过对494位具有购买金融商品经验的顾客调查数据研究发现:首先,产品涉入不仅能够降低感知风险,而且还能提升顾客对金融商品的再购意愿,而感知风险却抑制了顾客对金融商品的再购意愿;其次产品涉入不仅能够直接作用于再购意愿而且还能通过感知风险间接作用于再购意愿;最后产品涉入和感知风险对再购意愿的影响会受到顾客风险偏好和金融商品风险属性的干扰。     

我国高校政府采购存在的风险点及其管控

本文分析了我国高校在政府采购各环节中存在的风险点及高校政府采购的目标模式,并在此基础上提出完善政府采购制度、规范政府采购行为、健全采购监管机制、加强采购队伍建设、强化采购责任追究五个方面的风险管控措施,以期为我国高校政府采购提供借鉴。     

风险社会理论给我国食品安全监管带来的挑战与启示

贝克的风险社会理论向世人宣告了风险社会的到来。贝克的风险社会理论认为,现代社会的风险是文明的产物,不同于传统社会的风险。风险社会理论在给我国食品安全监管体制、监管方式等带来了挑战的同时,也给我国食品安全监管带来了启示：理性对待食品安全风险认知差异,建立食品安全风险规制体系,探索食品安全风险的复合治理方式。     

自冒风险规则研究

自冒风险源自罗马法,无论在普通法系还是大陆法系,都已接受为过失侵权的抗辩事由：尽管我国立法没有相关规定,却已有法官依据自冒风险规则判决的案例,这很危险。因此,深入研究自冒风险理论,阐述其构成要件、适用范围等,为构建我国的自冒风险规则立法、消除既有法律障碍提供理论基础是论文的立意所在。     

从危害防止到风险预防:环境治理的风险转身与制度调适

"危害"和"风险"分别是传统秩序行政与当下风险行政的核心概念,语词之分的背后蕴含着制度应对的实质差异。危害防止强调对确定性损害和可预测危险的预防和阻止,是现代环境法应对的重心;但随着风险社会勃兴,对不确定风险的预防也逐渐成为国家应当承担的基本任务。我国环境立法已经对风险预防有所回应,但仍然存在风险预防法律地位不明、风险治理制度体系不够健全等问题,为此需要以预防原则为接口重塑风险预防在环境立法中的表达方式,以公私合作为基础建立环境风险治理的治理框架,并以程序理性为内核建立环境风险治理的裁量控制机制。     

Working with sex offenders in a climate of public blame and anxiety: How to make defensible decisions for risk

Abstract

Work with sex offenders takes place in a climate of public blame and anxiety. This requires practitioners to adopt the highest standards of practice to ensure that defensible decisions are made. These are decisions that must withstand hindsight scrutiny in the light of a risk management failure. This paper reviews the key practice points that will assist practitioners in making defensible decisions, and the key challenges for practitioners in this challenging area of work.     

肖志军案中的刑法难题和价值取向——不作为、因果关系与间接故意之新界

丈夫拒绝签字导致妻子死亡的行为属于间接故意杀人。肖志军因具有法定的救助义务而成立不作为;刑法应偏向患者利益,在医疗领域中采用风险增高理论来判断因果关系;在拒签时,肖志军认识到了妻子死亡的具体危险性,这决定了他属于间接故意的杀人。在社会救助体制缺失时,刑法期待通过强化个人责任而确立"全力救助患者生命"的价值导向。     

评山中敬一的客观归属论

山中敬一是日本刑法学界研究客观归属论的代表者。他以传统理论的局限性和现代社会的需要为切入点,展开以危险制造和危险实现为基本要素的客观归属论。山中的客观归属理论不足有三:一是前提性分析不充分,忽漏了对作为意识问题的主体及参加到归属过程中的参与者的分析;二是缺乏对现代社会风险的深刻洞见,没有超越传统因果关系论的局限;三是客观归属类型的预设目标不明确,过于复杂从而难以把握,而且存在漏洞。     

风险刑法理论的批判与反思

风险刑法理论曲解了风险社会理论,尤其是风险范畴的真实含义,混淆了风险社会的风险与传统社会的风险。该理论针对的是传统社会的风险,它对于传统刑法理论的颠覆是无根据的。风险社会的风险具有全球性、未知性、系统性、两面性,在古典工业社会的背景下,它们被合法化为现代化的"潜在副作用",古典工业社会的刑法无法化解风险社会的风险。风险社会的危机属于系统危机,需要系统性地解决,这首先有赖于科学和政治的制度性反思。面对风险社会的危机,刑法既不应无所作为,也不应鲁莽冒进,而应当是反思性的。     

暴力危险量表中文版的信度

目的引入、修订具有评估暴力危险及危险变化的暴力危险量表(Violence Risk Scale,VRS),对修订后的暴力危险量表中文版(VRS-C)进行信度检验。方法通过标准的翻译程序形成VRS-C,3位评估者独立评估14个案例以检验评分者信度,以125例来自成都安康医院监管病区、四川华西法医学鉴定中心法医精神病学教研室及华西心理卫生中心的精神疾病患者为被试,对VRS-C的信度进行检验。结果初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的评分者信度(ICC=0.80)、同质性信度(克朗巴赫α系数=0.921)、分半信度(0.906)及题总相关性(0.246～0.849)。结论初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的信度。