大国崛起与国际秩序

本文从历史角度研究国际秩序内涵、大国崛起与国际秩序之间的关系,并从中引申出政策含义。本文的主要观点是:国际秩序是大国之间权力分配、利益分配和观念分配的结果;国际秩序之争,实质上是权力、利益之争,又主要表现为观念之争、国际机制之争;大国对国际秩序的影响巨大,大国崛起必然冲击既有的国际秩序,带动国际秩序的变革;20世纪的国际关系集中体现了大国崛起与国际秩序的互动关系,出现了三次建立国际新秩序的诉求,每次都比前者进一步推动了国际社会的进步;当前国际秩序新与旧、消极与积极并存,正处于转型期。     

共同社会化与中国的国际秩序战略

国际秩序是由国家、国际组织等多种行为体构成的共同体,既包括确认秩序成员资格和调整成员互动的规范与规则,也包含反映秩序成员利益分配的地位或位置排序。共同社会化是崛起国与国际秩序成员共同调适,就秩序的规则与规范构成、利益分配份额以及崛起国在秩序中的地位与行为取得共识的过程。它具有调适过程的协商性、调适目标的共识性、调适结果的不确定性等特点。崛起国可从“改革+示善”两方面出发,实施共同社会化国际秩序战略。一方面,崛起国可主动改革国际秩序,加强治理能力,提升自身在国际秩序中的地位。另一方面,崛起国也需要以实际行动表明对改革秩序的善意,以获得外界的认可和支持。当今中国的国际秩序实践体现了共同社会化特点,既推动秩序改革,提升治理能力,提升中国在国际秩序中的影响力,又通过履行承诺展现改革的善意与效益。今后,中国可继续采用共同社会化的国际秩序战略,从有所作为地推进国际秩序改革、积极战略示善、理性处理对美关系、合理匹配成本与收益等方面出发,不断优化自身复兴的外部秩序环境。     

国际制度转型与中国的应对

正在国际格局变迁的背景下,国际社会对变革国际制度的需求日益上升,由此推动国际制度体系发生深刻转型。中国作为全球负责任的新兴大国,既要积极参与甚至引领既有国际制度的转型,也要促进和推动新的国际制度的创建。新世纪以来,随着世界大国实力对比的显著变化,特别是新兴大国的群体性崛起,国际制度体系正在发生深刻的转型。在这一转型过程     

建构对外关系中的核心价值

尽管中国走的是和平发展的道路,但其改变世界格局的速度和力度,以及历史上大国崛起造成的震荡,依然让许多国家,尤其是一些大国强国充满忧虑,甚至心存妒忌。对于国际秩序而言,中国不仅改变着既有的利益格局,也冲击着长期被认为合理的制度和价值。为了让国际社会更好地适应自己,中国在努力调整着自己的言行,承担起更多的国际责任,清晰地表达出核心利益,以     

自由主义的国际规范对中国是否有利?

第二次世界大战后的国际秩序建立在自由主义的国际规范基础之上,国际秩序的原则理念和决策程序总体上体现了自由主义的核心原则和精神。自由主义的国际规范主张建立开放性的国际经济和政治秩序,具有较强的包容性和非零和性。在这样的秩序中,新兴大国和守成大国都可以成为体系的受益者。中国的意识形态与西方不同,更需要一种开放的国际秩序。改革开放以来,无论在国际经济秩序还是国际政治秩序中,总的来说,作为新兴大国的中国处于一个较为有利的位置。中国应积极地利用现存国际秩序推动国内的改革与发展,继续融入现存的国际秩序而不是挑战它。     

中美国际制度策略取向比较——基于议题领导权视角的分析

中美在国际制度领域的战略竞争加剧,但双方在该领域的策略取向却截然不同。对此,既有研究主要从权力、制度和地位三种视角进行探讨,权力竞争视角认为国际制度策略从属于权力分配和权力互动,制度竞争视角强调制度竞争和制度制衡的作用,地位竞争视角关注国家对国际地位的追求。本文主要基于议题领导权的视角,探讨中美国际制度策略取向背后的逻辑。随着世界朝着多元复合秩序演变,权力竞争的方式对于中美战略竞争的功效有所下降,两国在国际制度领域的竞争也逐渐显现。特朗普政府奉行单边主义,奥巴马和拜登政府则偏向排他性多边主义,其目的是借助国际制度制衡中国,维护美国的国际领导地位。中国坚持包容性多边主义,在维护自身发展权的同时也谋求提升国际领导权。当然,双方在国际制度领域并非零和竞争,议题的多元性和差异性使得中美双方的制度竞争没有权力竞争激烈。展望未来,议题领导权竞争将成为中美战略竞争的重要形式,中美双方能根据各自的比较优势,在不同领域加强议题领导权,最终形成中美各具优势、相互制约的局面。     

对新型大国关系的一种解读

大国和大国关系属于历史演进中的概念,也是国际秩序得以维持的国际制度。中国提出新型大国关系主要出于防御目的,希望能够和平崛起、在国际社会中得到应有的尊重,以及为维护国际秩序发挥自己的作用。新型大国关系能否建立,关键在于美国是否真正接受中国的崛起,中国是否被接受为具有合法性的大国俱乐部成员,参与国际规范和规则的制定和修改,同时也取决于中国自己的战略选择。     

论和平崛起的中国对构建当代国际制度的建设性影响

当今国际社会,国际制度的作用和影响与日俱增。这就要求作为正在和平崛起的世界大国的中国不仅要全面参与国际制度,在现有的国际制度框架内维护国家的主权和利益,而且要力争在构建国际制度时发挥更大的建设性作用。这不仅是维护中国日益全球化的国家利益的需求,也是作为负责任大国的历史责任所在。本文旨在从国际制度的构建机制入手,阐述正在和平崛起的中国所应发挥的建设性作用。     

美国国家实力衰落与国际权力格局的变化

探讨大国兴衰的历史规律是国际政治研究的重要内容,关于美国衰落的话题也是学术界争论的焦点。纵观战后现实,美国国家实力的相对衰落是客观存在的现象。这种衰落在显现必然趋势的同时,又会经历一个周期性的反复过程。这个过程并非线形的,而常常是在一定时期出现拐点,形成周期性循环。因此,客观性、相对性、周期性和必然性是美国国家实力衰落的主要规律特征。同时,由于这种衰落是一个动态曲折的过程,美国实力的变化将会导致国际权力的分散和国际权力结构的震动,进而对国际权力格局及其所衍生出的既有秩序和规则产生一定冲击和影响。这主要表现为国际权力竞争加剧、国际体系转型变化凸显、国际秩序变革斗争激烈和国际安全形势日趋严峻。作为崛起中的新兴大国,中国要正确认识美国国家实力衰落的基本规律,妥善应对国际权力格局的动荡变化。     

“中国世纪论”与国际秩序的未来

"中国世纪论"是近年来在西方主流舆论领域兴起的一种新的关于中国崛起的理论认识。其主要观点为:中国在新的21世纪将会持续性地崛起,而美国"单极时代"的终结不可避免;在对中国的崛起怀有忧虑的基础上,劝导中国认同和融入西方主导的国际秩序;为西方如何应对中国崛起并保持对国际秩序的主导地位开药方等。事实上,由于中国崛起的内向性质和维持现状倾向,未来国际秩序的走向主要取决于其是否向着更加开放、包容和更加易于融入和参与的方向发展。     

The Linkage between Security,Governance and Development: the European Union in Africa

The international community currently favours an approach to development that stresses a triangular linkage between security, good governance and economic development. This approach clearly informs the European Union's agenda in Africa, which has progressively integrated governance and security elements. This paper will show that this agenda is at least as much determined by the bureaucratic and national affiliations of the concerned EU actors as it is by African realities and international trends. African security indeed triggers a competition between the different European institutions, eager to be the driving force for a policy that can offer some additional resources and autonomy. The consistency and the credibility of the EU security policy in Africa will therefore depend on the responses provided to these institutional rivalries.     

Authoritarian legality and informal practices: Judges, lawyers and the state in Russia and China

To participate in the global economy authoritarian states are pressed to offer international business a legal order that protects the interests of investors, customers, and sellers, but the creation of a modern legal order threatens to undermine the leaders’ control of public life. An increasingly common way to resolve this dilemma, I argue, is developing formal legal institutions that appear to meet world standards, while using informal practices to maintain control over the administration of justice when needed. In this paper I show how the governments of post-Soviet Russia (with its hybrid or competitive authoritarian regime) and the fully authoritarian People’s Republic of China as well, have used this approach in their relations with judges and defense lawyers in their respective countries. The analysis underscores the utility of investigating informal practices along with the reform of formal legal institutions, especially in the context of transition.     

Post-Soviet Developmentalism and the Political Economy of Russia’s Electricity Sector Liberalization

Observers of Russian state market relations typically consider the state as an entity engaged in creating rent-seeking opportunities for bureaucrats or powerful economic interests. The trajectory and outcomes of electricity sector reforms demonstrate the limits of this perspective and serve to highlight a developmental strand in Russian economic policy, which I call post-Soviet developmentalism. I found that post-Soviet developmentalism is key to understanding the patterns of market institutions that have emerged in the newly liberalized electricity sector and that they cannot be adequately explained if the state is largely seen as a predator or as captured by oligarchic interests. A close analysis of the institutional underpinnings of new electricity markets suggests that they were shaped in political bargains, in which the government sought to enlist Russia’s oligarchic conglomerates for its modernization agenda and developmental priorities. The paper links this discussion to three sets of theoretical literatures: It speaks to the debates on the post-Soviet transition, more broadly to the political economy of market reform, and finally, it addresses the developmental state literature.     

Crucial relationship between the privatized sector and the generic private sector in post-communist privatization: Determinants of economic performance

This article looks at the issue — largely neglected in the transition literature — of the relative weights of the privatized sector and the generic private sector (of de novo private firms) in the emerging private sector of post-communist economies in transition. The present writer posits that the relative weight of each in the aggregate share of a private sector (generally expanding over time as transition progresses) strongly influences economic performance, both during correctional recession and during recovery and expansion period. Another, interrelated issue considered here is the interaction between the evolving institutional framework and the expansion of the generic private sector, that is the most dynamic one in the transition economy. It is true that the interaction between institutions and performance has been a staple of a very large number of books, articles, and papers.However, this article concentrates on one component of a private sector only, that is the generic private sector. But at the same time it looks beyond the ‘Holy Trinity’ of transition (stabilization, liberalization, and privatization) towards a wider institutional framework of political liberty, law and order. The foregoing wider framework, and the emerging general trust, matters as much — if not more — for the present writer as the standard transition program.It is the relative dynamics of both components of the private sector, affected by both standard transition programs and the above-mentioned wider institutional framework, that is of primary importance for the economic performance in post-communist transition. In the last part of the article I will try also to answer, tentatively, the question under which circumstances the wider institutional framework may emerge in the transition process.     

中国在全球治理中的改革倡议:基于WTO多哈回合谈判和G20进程的分析

随着中国国家权力和影响力的上升,中国对国际制度的主动塑造已成为中国参与全球治理的重要内容。本文以WTO多哈回合谈判和G20进程为案例,考察了中国在全球治理中的改革倡议及其特点。中国利用全球治理改革的"重要时机",积极致力于全球经济治理机制的改革,提出了一系列的改革倡议。在倡议行动中,中国主张全球治理机制应在不改变基本原则的前提下作出适当调整,不谋求对联合倡议的主导,秉持促进发展的理念。     

Small States and Nonmaterial Power: Creating Crises and Shaping Migration Policies in Malta,Cyprus, and the European Union

This article examines how the power relationships between Malta and the Republic of Cyprus, on the one hand, and the European Union, on the other, shape irregular immigration policies in these two sovereign outpost island states in the Mediterranean. As member states on the EU's southern periphery, Malta and Cyprus have faced new institutional structures since their accession in 2004 within which they now construct their migration policies. Here, I examine how the new structures influence the discourse and logic of migration policies and politics and also how the seemingly small and powerless states affect regional policies. My contention is that, within this EU framework and with limited material power, the two outpost states have developed strategies based on nonmaterial power in order to defend and promote their interests. Such strategies have resulted in treating irregular immigration as a crisis in order to attract support. The new dynamics have thus resulted in more barriers to migration, and in negative consequences for the individual migrants and refugees on the islands. Although the strategies of Malta and Cyprus have been surprisingly successful in influencing regional migration governance, their long-term effectiveness is questionable, and their effects on the migrant and local population problematic.     

Rising powers and order contestation: disaggregating the normative from the representational

A central theme of the literature on rising powers is that new aspirants to great power status pose a challenge to the underlying principles and norms that underpin the existing, Western-led order. However, in much of the literature, the nature and significance of rising powers for international order are imprecisely debated, in particular the concept and practice of ‘contestation’. In this article, we aim to establish a distinction between normative contestation and what can be thought of as ‘contestation over representation’: that is, contestation over who is setting and overseeing the rules of the game rather than the content of the rules themselves and the kind of order that they underpin. The paper engages with debates on international order and international society, and its empirical basis is provided by a thorough analysis of the discourse of rising power summitry.     

PROFESSIONS,INSTITUTIONAL DYNAMICS,AND NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT IN THE DANISH HOSPITAL FIELD

ABSTRACT

This article elucidates the role of professionals as stakeholders in the Danish hospital field. The sociological new-institutionalism has illuminated the role of professions as carriers of rationalities and norms and their role in radical changes in organizational fields, but we are short of contributions that elucidate their role as stakeholders in connection with incremental changes in mature organizational fields.

First we focus on what interests professions can be expected to safeguard. We will argue that professions protect and expand their professional rationalities. In mature fields this must be done in interaction with the state apparatus that in numerous ways regulates the professions.

Second we assume that in mature organizational fields, dominated by professional interpretative schemes, the professions’ safeguarding of interests will be tied to their influence on the creation of new institutions within the existing institutional landscape in the field. More specifically we argue that the professions’ opportunities of influence depend on:

The existing constellationof institutions in the field.     

新时代中国外交理论建设与外交实践笔谈

从方法论、理论意义和制度创新三个角度把握新时代中国外交理论的丰富内涵和发展方向,是深化新时代中国外交战略和外交理论研究的重要保证。人类命运共同体思想不仅丰富了中国的国际关系理论,也有力推动着理论范式的创新。这种创新表现为中国国际关系理念与价值创新、思维创新、模式创新和话语创新。我们需要深刻辨识中国全球伙伴关系战略对开创国际关系新模式的理论意义和高质量共建"一带一路"对世界共同现代化的制度创新价值。21世纪的国际竞争具有新的特点,更多体现为纵向竞争、间接竞争、错位竞争。由于美国视中国为长期性的竞争对手,这使得国际体系中的大国战略竞争呈现长期化态势。我们应从更广阔的战略图谱中定位竞争,从管控竞争、化解竞争的角度去应对竞争,其中包括推动实现"真正的多边主义"。