东亚国家间信任生成与流失的逻辑:本体性安全的视角

信任的缺失已经严重影响到东亚一体化进程和中国的周边安全环境。那么,引起东亚国家间信任生成与流失的逻辑是什么?文章试图从国家本体性安全与维护国家本体性安全的国际秩序这两个变量的互动关系对上述问题进行分析。文章认为,东亚国际秩序、国家本体性安全与国家间信任之间存在逻辑关系,即在能够有效维护国家本体性安全的国际秩序中,国家间的信任水平较高;而在无法有效维护国家本体性安全的国际秩序中,国家间的信任水平较低。依据这一逻辑,文章在考察了这两个变量在东亚国际秩序演化进程中的相互关系后,重点关注后冷战时期东亚国家间信任的变动,并指出东亚国际秩序的转型一方面提供了维护各国本体性安全的保障,引起东亚国家间信任的生成,另一方面又激发了东亚国家的本体性安全需求,引起东亚国家间信任的流失。     

中美战略信任的维系:不对称结构与国际体系的互动视角

近年来,"美国优先"理念、中美贸易战以及高科技领域的激烈竞争反映了中美权力转移带来的巨大压力。在权力转移压力下,中美战略信任问题愈发凸显,如何维系战略信任成为中美关系中一个重要的理论与现实问题。围绕这一核心问题,文章从"不对称关系结构—国际体系"的互动视角构建了分析框架,并认为,强不对称和弱不对称两种双边关系结构与开放性和封闭性两种国际体系之间的组合塑造了国家的行为逻辑,为国家间战略信任的维系提供了四种难易程度不同的体系结构。在这一分析框架下,文章结合现实与历史,深入分析了中美维系战略信任的体系结构,并在此基础上指出,2008年国际金融危机后,中美不对称性的弱化与国际体系的开放性发展共同塑造了中美两国的行为逻辑,并成为维系两国战略信任的体系结构。由于中美不对称性的弱化具有客观性,因而中美维系战略信任的关键在于维持国际体系的开放性发展。     

中欧关系研究:三个重要的视角

本文在梳理国内现有研究的基础上,探讨了中欧关系研究的三个视角:国际体系的角度、社会本体论的立场,以及未来取向的规范视角,并通过这三个方面揭示中欧关系的进程建构特征、互动模式和未来发展趋势。     

欧洲联盟与拉丁美洲的对话

欧盟与拉丁美洲通过区域、次区域和国家间的固定对话机制建立了两大地区间多层次、多领域、多角色的"战略伙伴"关系。这一被称为"对话"的地区间关系模式是全球力量平衡和国际秩序建构的组成部分,也是地区间政治、经济和文化互动的主要途径和方式,其发展的主要动力来自两大地区内部,但对双方各自的国际定位和内部演变以及两大地区以外的国家具有重要的影响。     

主导性国家与东盟安全共同体的建构——兼谈美国重返东南亚对建构东盟安全共同体的影响

当下,东盟安全共同体的建构正面临着重重阻碍,主要表现为规范难以建立、制度难以生成和国家间集体认同的单薄。与此同时,2009年后美国开始执行的重返东南亚的外交策略对东盟安全共同体的建构也产生了不可忽视的作用。以上两方面的因素都影响着东盟安全共同体的最终形成。基于此,本文认为,东盟安全共同体建构的关键性问题在于主导性国家的缺失;而美国对东盟安全共同体建构的强势介入在短期内有利于安全共同体的推进,但长期来看却会阻碍主导性国家的确立从而不利于东盟安全共同体的建构。     

区域大国与区域秩序建构——东南亚区域主义进程中的印尼大国角色分析

区域大国与区域秩序建构之间的关联是新近区域大国研究的重点。文章在批判借鉴相关研究的基础上,提出一种将中等强国身份融入区域大国身份及区域秩序建构的新综合分析框架,借以分析印尼如何在东南亚区域主义进程中塑造大国身份并建构区域秩序。新综合分析框架指出,区域大国是实力、认知与能力实践三个因素综合作用的结果。其中,能力实践是区域大国塑造大国形象并建构区域秩序的主要过程。区域大国能力实践就是协调国内政治、自我对区域秩序的目标、区域伙伴的态度和因应以及域外大国的认可和影响四者间关系,并从内外双向建构区域秩序的过程。文章基于此分析框架,通过对印尼在东盟、"不结盟运动"及G20等机制内区域大国实践的案例分析,揭示了印尼在区域自主秩序建构中,从次区域政治大国逐渐发展为区域大国的过程,并分析了其中印尼对东南亚区域秩序内部建构、外部建构与内外建构通联所起的作用。     

越南的人际信任价值观与国家政制

人际信任价值观被越来越多学者认为与国家政制有着密切的关系,特别是社会资本等理论,甚至认为人际信任与现代民主社会政制是正相关关系,是影响现代民主社会政制的重要变量之一。然而,现实的数据表明,虽然越南的国家政制民主指数并不高,但是,越南的人际信任价值观却非常高。为此,本文试图以越南为例,对人际信任价值观做出具体的分析,指出人际信任价值观不应该一概而论,其中的熟人信任和陌生人信任会对国家政制产生不同的影响,因而要对人际信任价值观与国家政制之间的关系做出更为细致的界定,才能提高理论的适用性。     

国际政治的关系网络理论:一项新的分析框架

社会学的关系主义范式主张以关系为核心,强调超越传统的以行为体属性为核心变量的分析范式,以及以观念数据为核心的理想类型分析;它在行动者-结构问题上主张用嵌入性视角对两者进行调和。这种新的思维和方法对重新思考全球化时代国际政治权力分散、流动及多变趋势具有重要启发。本文在梳理和评析既有研究的基础上,抽取关系、网络、结构三大要素,结合社会网络分析方法,以此建构关系网络理论框架。该框架坚持折中的结构观,以关系为基本分析单元,对国际政治权力、关系、网络结构进行了量化分析。关系网络理论有利于我们深刻认识日益网格化的世界,也突显了国际关系演进的重要趋势———世界政治体系的发展。     

俄罗斯国家治理的研究论析

从社会科学的角度看,俄罗斯的转型无疑会为政治学的发展,特别是为"转型政治学"的形成和发展,提供丰富和新鲜的材料。在俄罗斯政治转型即将20年之际,有必要在一个研究项目中搭建起一个分析框架,对俄罗斯转型过程进行剖析并对其发展脉络做出梳理。本文认为,可以选取国家治理为研究主线,分析观念的变化以及观念对战略选择和制度变迁的影响,这能够揭示俄罗斯经济、政治体制与社会阶层之间的利益关系,从而厘清这种相互制约的关系对俄罗斯发展的深层制约。本文概述了俄罗斯国家治理的研究缘起和内容。研究俄罗斯的国家治理,展现俄罗斯发展进程中的利益分配变动,探讨俄罗斯社会结构与经济以及政治制度互动发展的进程,对揭示俄罗斯发展的内在规律,具有重要的学术意义和现实意义。     

中德信任观比较及其对企业组织管理的影响

文章对德意志文化及中华文化中的信任观、信任关系、信任品质作了分析与比较，并以此为核心来思考在这两种不同文化环境中形成的不同信任观对企业经营行为所产生的影响     

The German Question and the International Order, 1943–48

In this article, I address two salient issues in IR trust research: first, I introduce a longitudinal, content analysis to measure foreign policy trust. Second, I provide an in-depth analysis of how recent crises affected German political elites’ trust of the United States. I begin with a brief conceptual sketch of foreign policy trust and argue that treating it as a trusting discourse is a useful way to bridge the micro–macro gap. Next, I introduce a content analysis to measure trust, present coding rules and discuss advantages and problems of the approach. The empirical section consists of data generated from coding German Bundestag speeches and newspaper op-eds from 2000 through 2014. By disaggregating the data to specify who trusts whom and regarding which issues, I propose the following: First, there is a significant decline in trust among the traditionally pro-American German center-right politicians. Second, there is a steady decline in trust in the United States as a state entity, as opposed to strongly fluctuating trust in different U.S. presidents. Third, the NSA crisis directly affected German elites’ trust in the bilateral security partnership, an area where trust was stable even during the Bush presidency.     

Political Trust and Distrust in Switzerland: A Normative Analysis

Abstract: Based on data from a Swiss survey study (N = 769), this research investigated individual‐level determinants of trust in political authorities from a social psychological perspective. The study demonstrates that individuals with a low level of education who feel materially at risk and politically powerlessness expressed the lowest levels of political trust. This relationship was explained with differential endorsement of normative beliefs. A mediation analysis reveals that normative perceptions of Swiss society as being threatened by immorality and growing social inequalities accounted for the effect of perceived material risk on political distrust. The rejection of a duty‐based citizenship norm (voting), in turn, mediated the impact of political powerlessness on distrust. Political orientation was unrelated to political trust. These findings illustrate the cognitive underpinnings of political alienation and suggest that perceived lack of political agency and perceived risk of social declassification are key factors in understanding political distrust.     

The sources of institutional trust in East and West Germany: civic culture or economic performance?

The sources of institutional trust are contested in political science. Cultural explanations focusing on engagement in civic activity compete with rationalist theories that link institutional trust with perceptions of economic performance. This article subjects hypotheses derived from these competing explanations to empirical testing, using data from European Values Surveys for East and West Germany. The results cast considerable doubt over the ability of cultural factors to explain institutional trust. Whilst civic engagement is lower in the East than in the West, levels of institutional trust are indistinguishable. Regression analysis shows that cultural factors have a relatively weak impact on attitudes towards political institutions, and that economic performance is a far better model for predicting institutional trust.     

Trust: Why and How Historians Should Study It

Recent scholarship has examined the decline of trust between citizens and the elected representatives, which is seemingly a hallmark of contemporary Western democracies. But the problem is not new. This study draws on newspaper accounts to trace the accumulation and erosion of trust in the Scullin federal Labor government, during its early months. Elected on 12 October 1929, James Scullin's government was expected to resolve the long‐running New South Wales’ miners’ strike; his deputy, E.G. Theodore, promised Labor would return the miners to work on pre‐stoppage conditions. The promise was undeliverable. The lockout dragged on through Scullin's first months in office, with the miners refusing to work on reduced wages and the government unable to deliver on Theodore's pledge. By the end of January 1930, the government's trust relations with its core constituency had unraveled. This case study illustrates how trust is made and unmade through complex relations between individuals, and between individuals and institutions.     

中日韩三国的战略信赖度分析

本文以战略互信理论为主要依据,探讨了中日韩三国的战略定位,并在尝试建立中日韩三国战略互信度模型的基础上,对影响中日韩三国战略互信关系的主要因素进行了较为系统的分析,并指出构筑和进一步建立中日韩三国稳定的战略互信关系,是东北亚多边安全机制构建的核心和基础。     

Direct Democracy and Political Trust: Enhancing Trust,Initiating Distrust–or Both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens' perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public's interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub‐national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.     

Correlates of Levels of Democracy in Latin America During the 1990s

Does the conventional wisdom about the relationships between economic, cultural, and political party variables and democracy stand up in the Latin American experience of the 1990s? This study, utilizing new data sets for the region, finds that some traditional hypotheses are upheld better than others. It sustains the conventional wisdom that economic development, economic growth, democratic values, and (with a two‐year lead) education correlate positively with the level of democracy. Surprisingly, however, neither social trust nor the number of political parties is significantly correlated with the level of democracy. The study suggests various possible explanations for the weak or nonexistent relationships for social trust and number of parties, in the hope that these surprising results will stimulate further research.     

Critical social media information flows: political trust and protest behaviour among Kazakhstani college students

ABSTRACT

In political regimes where traditional mass media are under state control, social networking sites may be the only place where citizens are exposed to and exchange dissident information. Despite all the attempts, complete control of social media seems to be implausible. We argue that the critical information that people see, read and share online undermines their trust in political institutions. This diminishing trust may threaten the legitimacy of the ruling regime and stimulate protest behaviour. We rely on original survey data of Kazakhstani college students to confirm these expectations. The data are unique in that they directly measure exposure to critical/dissident information, as opposed to simply assuming it. The analysis leverages Coarsened Exact Matching to simulate experimental conditions. This allows us to better identify the consequential mechanism and the attitudinal precursor by which social media influence protest in an authoritarian context.     

Social Capital and Political Support: A Reassessment of the Putnam Thesis in East and West Germany

A sizeable scholarly literature has generally uncovered weak, statistically trivial connections between social capital and political support, in spite of its logical appeal. Much of this research, however, has adopted an overly restrictive research design. It has overwhelmingly focused on the impact of social trust on political trust, from which broad inferences about the utility of the social capital perspective have been made. Rarely, however, has the impact of social capital been systematically assessed on indicators of political support which are more diffuse in character. Using data drawn from the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS), the present study analyses the impact of different measures of social capital on political support in the Federal Republic of Germany. The results strongly support the conclusion that social capital influences diffuse support.     

Building Trust: Cooperation between Rivals India and Pakistan

ABSTRACT

This article uses the case study of India–Pakistan to explore how rivals build cooperation over time. India and Pakistan have shared an intense rivalry since their independence and subsequent partition in 1947, having fought three major wars and several militarised disputes over the last 70 years. The authors use network analysis to study the pattern of all treaties between the two countries between 1947 and 2017. This expects rivals to focus on non-security issues such as trade as they work to build trust and patterns of cooperation. The article finds that given the long and intense rivalry between the two neighbours, and the subsequent lack of trust, India and Pakistan have adopted a functionalist approach towards building cooperation; most of their bilateral treaties are related to non-security issues such as trade, telecommunications, transport and technology. Only a few of their treaties are nested within prior treaties, indicating ad hoc rather than institutionalised cooperation. The authors also find that efforts by the two states to build cooperation has not spilt over into areas related to security, pointing to a continued lack of trust between the two states. The article notes the implications of this approach for the future of Indo-Pakistani ties as well as peace on the subcontinent.