日台关系的新发展

全面发展与台湾的实质性关系,是日本既定的外交方针,也是21世纪日台关系发展的基本趋势.深厚的"殖民情结"和现实的对华战略是日本染指台湾的根本原因.日台实质性关系的加强将使中日关系中的台湾因素日益凸显和复杂,台湾问题将成为今后中日关系中最具爆炸性和破坏力的敏感问题.因此,妥善处理台湾问题是中日关系健康发展的重要前提.     

原敬的日美协调外交构想

原敬以"时势论"和"实力论"的政治理念为基础,通过访美考察,形成对美认识,这种认识对于原敬的日美关系认识产生重要影响,以其对美认识为前提,原敬指出,在对外关系中要特别重视日美关系。针对日俄战争后日美关系之恶化,原敬强调要缓和日美关系,尤其是"满洲"政策要认真考虑美国因素之重要影响。一战期间,原敬以其政治理念,进一步阐释日美关系,强调日美间要避免战争,认为日本要解决中国问题,日英同盟或其他同盟均无助益,必须要取得美国谅解,与美国保持亲密关系,进而提出日美协调外交构想,并期望通过与美国共同出兵符拉迪沃斯托克开启两国合作之开端。原敬并非是无条件实现日美协调,而是在维护日本国家利益,即日本在华传统权益,尤其是所谓"满洲"权益的基础上,以美国承认日本之特殊地位为前提。原敬的日美协调外交构想作为其对美外交政策的思想基础,促使原敬内阁成立后确立以日美协调为核心的外交政策。     

奥巴马第二任期美国对台政策的调整及影响

奥巴马第二任期基本上延续了第一任期内的对台政策,同时采取了一些新的措施,即在遵循美台非官方关系基本框架、确保避免冲击中美关系的前提下,给予台湾政治、军事、外交等方面的支持以稳固和发展美台关系,突出台湾在美国亚太"再平衡"战略中的重要作用,积极谋求对台湾问题的更多主动权。从近期来看,奥巴马政府对台政策调整仍在一定程度上维护了中美关系的大局、促进了两岸关系的发展,保障了东亚地区的安全稳定;但从长远来看,这些政策调整却蕴含着很多潜在的隐患和不确定性。     

欧盟:台湾对外关系的新方向

70年代台湾"外交"顿挫,促使台湾检讨长期依赖美国的"外交"方针,加强对欧"外交",改变台湾对外关系"重美轻欧"的格局。80年代国际政治经济的新变化为台欧关系的发展提供了机会,双方在经贸领域的合作取得了相当进展。台湾发展与欧盟关系的基本方略,是将在经贸领域的合作绩效转化为"外交"资源,以争取欧洲国家承认台湾的"政治实体"地位,从而与欧盟建立有别于正式外交关系的"功能外交关系"。台欧关系的发展,为两岸关系增添了一个新的变项--欧盟。台欧中三角关系的博弈和欧盟自身发展的态势将决定欧盟在两岸关系中所扮演的角色。     

从布什政府对台军售看美台军事关系的变化

在布什政府第一任期 ,美国扩大对台军售 ,提高与台湾军事交往的级别 ,加强了与台湾的军事情报交流与合作和对台军事人员培训 ,甚至直接参加台湾的军事演习 ,明显提升了美台军事关系。但在落实布什上台仅两个月时草率做出的向台湾出售一笔先进武器决定过程中 ,美台之间进行了前所未有的数轮讨价还价 ,至今这笔交易仍然还有很多未知数。这一艰难的执行过程反映了美台军事关系的一些变化 ,呈现出美台关系的一些新特点。其政治含义尤其值得关注     

台湾"总统"选举背后的中美台"两岸三边"关系透视

中美台"两岸三边"关系,实际上是两岸关系中的美国因素和中美关系中的台湾问题.台独问题既是危害和冲击"两岸三边"关系架构的"破坏性"因素,也是台海两岸关系中最敏感的问题.而在2004年台湾"总统"选举中的"台独公投",既是陈水扁激化岛内族群对立和危害两岸关系的直接根源,也是中美台"两岸三边"关系的角力焦点.     

从两岸经贸关系看台湾“自由贸易区战略”的未来

台湾加入 WTO以后 ,台湾当局四处游说 ,试图与美日建立自由贸易区 ( FTA)。本文认为台湾的“自由贸易区战略”既是近年来两岸经贸快速发展的催生物 ,也是台湾当局坚持“台独”路线的新反映。但是从两岸经贸发展的前景、台湾对美日与大陆经贸依存的此消彼长、大陆较之台湾对美日等国的重要性以及人心向背来看 ,“自由贸易区战略”成功的希望非常渺茫 ,即便成为可能 ,也会使台湾当局作茧自缚     

南海“981”钻井平台冲突折射的越南南海政策

南海"981"钻井平台冲突是越南南海政策的必然结果。在该冲突中,越南注重运用基于民意基础的综合性手段,如舆论战、推进南海问题的国际化策略以及加强对美日的依赖。越南之所以能够维持长时期的强硬应对,其原因在于:南海诸岛是其宣称的"固有领土";事发海域是越南海洋强国战略的核心区域所在;有美日的援助;吸取了菲律宾在"黄岩岛事件"中的教训。据此,文章推断,今后越南的南海政策将会继续采用系统性举措维护其非法所得,并极有可能在平衡美日与中国的关系中倾向前者。有鉴于此,在增强与美日等国博弈力度的基础上,中国需积极回应菲越稳定关系的举措。另外,中国还有必要推进战略和战术并举的南海维权举措,同时强化社会力量的作用。     

美国的台湾图谋

拜登抑或是蔡英文,是不会让台湾大多数民众成为明白人的,所以他们制造事端,制造矛盾,制造恐慌,然后在混沌中获利。这才是台湾问题中最大的问题。还是在20年前,一位新加坡学者曾经说过这样一段话:"美国尽管在一些问题,如异性关系、堕胎、死刑、种族关系和联邦与州政府的权力分配上,存在持续的、难以弥合的分歧和争论,但在上述问题中,没有一个像台湾在独立或是统一、中国人或是台湾人身份的问题上那样分歧严重和具有爆炸性。"而今,美国变得更加撕裂了,而台湾也变得更加迷惘了。     

美欧"跨大西洋对话"及其对中国的影响

本文分析了以应对中国崛起为目的的美欧"跨大西洋对话",指出美欧在对华关系上的一致与分歧.文章认为,美欧"跨大西洋对话"是中美欧三边关系的晴雨表.在此三边关系中,美欧关系仍是最紧密的一组双边关系,中美欧之间尚存在较深的分歧与猜疑,而中美关系则一定意义上使中欧关系复杂化.美欧"跨大西洋对话"对中国及中美欧三边关系具有深刻影响.为了最大限度地发挥"跨大西洋对话"的积极影响,中国在处理对美、对欧关系问题时,就要着重加强中欧关系,并进而推动中美关系的发展.     

布什政府对台政策的回顾与展望

布什政府第一任期内的对台政策经历了从亲台、抚台向抑台的转变,呈现出不断调整、战略清晰化、军事关系强化、与对华政策反向互动等特征.未来美国对台政策将以维持台海现状为主,继续对台军售、提升美台关系,拉拢日本等盟国参与,对重大"台独"事变发生时大陆可能采取的武力解决方针进行"吓阻",但也会继续遏制"台独",支持两岸接触谈判.我们应当以新的思路改善两岸关系及与周边国家的关系,铲除美国"以台制华"着力点,分化美国"以台制华"同盟,战术上"以美制台",增强自身经济、军事实力和制度竞争力,做好应付战争的准备.     

Australian Support for an Independent Taiwan Prior to the Recognition of the People's Republic of China*

Australia's efforts between 1950 and 1972 to create an independent Taiwan are an important, largely overlooked element of Australia and Taiwan's international relations. Australia saw de jure independence for Taiwan as a means to support the US while pursuing the interrelated goals of accommodating the People's Republic of China (PRC) and minimising contradictions between US China policy and the policies of the UK and other countries important to it. Initially Australia favoured the establishment of a Taiwanese majority‐controlled state. This preference later gave way to greater support for an independent Republic of China on Taiwan under Chinese Nationalist rule. Australia nevertheless consistently justified its policy via reference to the principle of self‐determination for Taiwan's people — either immediately in the case of a Taiwanese Taiwan, or postponed into the indefinite future in the case of a Chinese Nationalist Taiwan. Championing Taiwan independence lost its utility for Australia when Sino‐ US relations improved in the late‐1960s to early‐1970s, and it became possible for Australia to make the concessions over Taiwan demanded by China without damaging its relationship with the US. This shift preceded the election of a Labor government committed to building a friendly relationship with China. Australia then dropped its policy of advocating Taiwanese independence, and established official relations with China in late 1972.     

The Implications of Taiwan's Declining Defense

Taiwan's declining defense capability has increasingly tilted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait towards China. While the current status quo suits Taiwan's domestic political realities and postpones the Taiwan question to the future, its declining defense capabilities vis-à-vis China hold important implications for Taiwan. They include the reduction of its political bargaining power with China, the undermining of stability in the Taiwan Strait as China increasingly has a viable military option, and ultimately decreases the probability that the status quo can be maintained. Left unattended, Taiwan's declining defense capabilities narrow Taiwan's options and could lead to unpalatable outcomes, including sudden crisis and conflict, and the ultimate resolution of the Taiwan problem on China's terms.     

China-Taiwan Relations Through the Lens of the Interaction Between China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation

China-Taiwan Relations have become significantly less confrontational since 2008. One of the indicators demonstrating the improvement of their relations is the resumption of the contact between China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) in 2008 after 9 years of no formal interaction. The purpose of this paper is to explore China-Taiwan relations in the period from 1990 to 2008 by examining the interaction between the aforementioned two organizations which were founded in 1991. By analyzing the relevant official announcements and statements made by China and Taiwan in the period from 1990 to 2008, this paper finds that China became more hostile toward Taiwan and therefore its ARATS in turn was unwilling to negotiate with Taiwan’s SEF when it perceived that the Taiwanese government was pushing for Taiwan’s independence. By contrast, when it perceived that the Taiwanese government was more compromising on the issue of Taiwan’s independence, it became relatively conciliatory and its ARATS in turn was more willing to interact with Taiwan’s SEF.     

Constructing Peaceful Development: The Changing Interpretations of “One China” and Beijing’s Taiwan Strait Policy

For rationalists, China (PRC)’s current conciliatory policy toward Taiwan is merely “calculative.” Hence, Chinese leaders must act patiently with Taiwan to dampen the “China threat theory.” This article contends that strategic considerations cannot entirely justify Beijing’s Taiwan policy. Given the PRC’s steadfast position on reunification, it is unclear why Beijing has, since the 1990s, allowed for a looser construction of the “one China” principle and even tacitly acknowledged the existence of Taiwan’s Republic of China (ROC). In line with the constructivist theory of argumentative persuasion, my position stresses that changing discourses have affected Chinese leaders’ perceptions of the Taiwan Strait problem. New identities and interests have been reconstituted to redefine the PRC relations vis-à-vis the ROC. While it is unlikely that Beijing would formally accept the ROC, the current trajectory raises hope that cross-strait ties may become more stabilized in the long run.     

A New Era in Taiwan Politics and its Implications

Taiwan faces an uncertain future after the electoral victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 elections. The election results, which reflected growing pro-independence sentiments amongst a younger generation of Taiwanese, have set Taiwan on a collision course with China, which is increasingly impatient for reunification to occur. The new US president, Donald Trump, has also added to the tensions by openly questioning the “One China” policy. Another Taiwan Strait crisis today would be fraught with immense risks due to China's dramatic economic and military rise which has altered the regional power balance. Given the increasingly tense China-US strategic rivalry, the US is also not likely to sit idly by should China attack Taiwan. However, the key player in resolving the Taiwan problem is China. For various reasons, it is in fact in China's interest to be patient with the current situation, and maintain the status quo for the immediate and medium-term future, while it constructs a new strategy that could win over the people of Taiwan, since true reunification can only occur if the people on Taiwan willingly accept it.     

Democracy and Taiwan-mainland China ties: A critique of three dominant views

The advent of democracy in Taiwan creates regime asymmetry between Taiwan and mainland China. Given that the size asymmetry so acutely favors mainland China, does democracy make Taiwan better or worse off? Taiwan’s principal opposition party posits that democracy presents a viable shortcut to an independent Taiwanese nation-state. A second perspective, held by proactive unificationists, emphasizes that Taiwan’s democracy, through a demonstration effect, can trigger or accelerate the long overdue political transformation of the mainland, and thereby contribute to the unification of the “greater China.” The third position, held by the mainstream ruling elites, highlights the corrosive and divisive effects that democracy may generate to undermine Taiwan’s political defense against her hereditary adversary. All three views are flawed. The first two are unwarrantedly sanguine and incorrectly assume risk neutrality as opposed to risk aversion for the majority of voters in Taiwan. The third perspective is an overstatement. Democracy permits subethnic cleavages to surface, but it also provides legitimate institutional devices to peacefully deal with intricate issues Taiwan faces, namely, her identity and her ties to the mainland.     

试论台湾与东南亚关系的现实基础、影响因素及发展路径

台湾和东南亚的关系与两岸关系及大陆-台湾-东南亚国家三方关系的互动有着密切联系.随着大陆实力的增强,因两岸关系对立而产生的东南亚国家不得不在大陆与台湾之间进行选择的政治难题已经消失,以中国-东盟自由贸易区建设为先导的东亚区域经济一体化进程更从客观上弱化了台湾单独与东南亚国家发展关系的政策效应.由于以"东盟+n"方式参与东亚区域经济合作将导致两岸关系的恶化和多方关系的复杂化,因此,台湾直接参与已经开始实施的"东盟+中国"合作框架将更有利于台湾的发展以及与此相关各方关系的协调.     

Tourism Development Across the Taiwan Strait

This article examines the tourism development between Taiwan and China over the last three decades under different political situation. First, Taiwan??s democratization in the 1980s made the control over outbound travel to China no longer necessary. Meanwhile, the Taiwanese visitors were welcomed at the time when China??s foreign currency was in deficiency. Second, the opening up of mainland Chinese visitors to Taiwan since 2008 marked another breakthrough in the Cross-Strait tourism development. However, as the opening up of Chinese tourists to Taiwan is based on the same ??political consensus?? between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and KMT in Taiwan, any dissimilar political agreements in the future may lead China to constrain the number Chinese tourists to the island. Third, the rapidly growing number of Chinese tourists brought much business benefit to the various tourism sectors in Taiwan. Nonetheless, the contribution to Taiwan??s economy is in doubt due to the insignificant tourism sector in Taiwan??s overall economy. From the current perspective, the tourism development across the Strait is more politically symbolic than substantive.     

特朗普政府的极限“台湾牌”:表现、意图与影响

特朗普政府上台以来,打破中美多年来的外交惯例,频频出台公然背离一个中国政策的法案,有悖一个中国政策的动作不断,将"台湾牌"打至极限。特朗普政府"以台遏华"的战略企图十分明显,借此争取在与中国的博弈中占据主导地位,为中国稳步推进国家发展制造麻烦。此举会形成强大的反噬力,不仅无法干扰中国实现国家统一和民族复兴的既定目标,相反只会加剧台海紧张局势,并可能导致两岸冲突,使台湾面临巨大的经济损失和两岸局势失控的双重风险。美国也将陷入进退两难的尴尬处境,既有悖于其国家利益和全球战略,不符合打"台湾牌"初衷,也可能助力其他次级大国趁机崛起,对美国的霸主地位形成挑战,使美国谋求自身利益最大化意图更加难以实现。