Explaining divergent responses to ethnic exclusion: evidence from two paired comparisons

This article asks why ethnic exclusion from executive-level state power leads to armed conflict in some cases but not in others. To answer this question the author develops a nine-factor model of ethnic conflict, which is used to investigate the diverging conflict trajectories of two pairs of ‘most similar’ ethnic groups. These include the Malinke in Guinea and Northerners in Côte d'Ivoire on the one hand, and Kurds in Syria and Turkey on the other. It is shown that varying responses to ethnic exclusion can mainly be traced back to three factors, which have so far been neglected in the ethnic conflict literature: the selectivity of state violence, the territorial reach of the state and the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. Ethnic rebellion occurs where weak territorial control and indiscriminate repression combine with external sanctuary. Conversely, violent escalation is avoided in a context of strong territorial control, selective repression and no external sanctuary.     

Justifying forceful resistance to ethnic separatism: The case of Russia versus Chechnya, 1994–96

This article examines how states try to mobilize mass and elite support for wars against ethnic separatists, and what factors affect their success in this effort, using the 1994–96 Russian‐Chechen conflict as a case study. It argues that governments fighting ethnic separatists usually appeal to three sets of normative principles to gamer support for this effort: democracy and rights, law and order, and territorial integrity and unity. After showing how the Yeltsin government relied on these principles in its campaign to justify the war, the article examines and explains the extent to which these appeals were successful.     

Authoritarian bargaining in Burma/Myanmar

Despite the political controversy related to the authoritarian bargaining of Burma/Myanmar’s territorial conflicts, it is important to acknowledge the successes and admit the failures of the process of ceasefire negotiation and the national convention process of the Myanmar-government. Regardless of what we think of the Myanmar government, there can still be both good and bad elements in the process. This article will focus, as the general focus of this special issue suggests, on the negotiations between the central government and the ethnic groups on autonomy and territorial solutions in the peripheries of Burma/Myanmar.     

Uneven Ground: Nationalist Frames and the Variable Salience of Homeland

When are domestic publics most sympathetic to nationalist territorial ambitions? Conflict scholars commonly assume support should be greatest when territory is framed as being of intangible value to national identity over tangible importance to national security and economic prosperity. This should be especially true regarding lost homelands, territories wherein a state has previously exercised sovereignty and to which it has enduring ethnic ties. This article presents experimental evidence that directly challenges these assumptions, demonstrating the variability of Serbian popular attachments to three lost territories: Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro. It finds that intangible framings do not necessarily engender stronger assertions that such territories belong to the homeland than tangible framings do. Nor do they necessarily motivate greater support for nationalist territorial agendas. These findings cast doubt on conventional wisdom regarding domestic publics' contributions to territorial conflict and offer refined insights regarding in which instances intangible claims are most conflict-prone.     

Intraethnic Dominance and Control: Violence Against Co-Ethnics in the Early Sri Lankan Civil War

In some ethno-separatist wars, rebel groups direct a large share of violence against members of their own ethnic community. But why do rebels target the co-ethnics they claim to represent in the war against the government? Our aim in this paper is to provide the components for a conceptual framework that we assess using unique disaggregated casualty data on violence committed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam against co-ethnic Tamils in territories claimed for the Tamil Eelam state in the early phase of the Sri Lankan conflict, 1985–88. We propose that there are two distinct processes of intraethnic violence: violence against co-ethnic civilians and violence against co-ethnic rivals. While the former aims at controlling the population to win the war against the government, the latter aims at establishing leadership dominance over the ethnic minority. We examine the role of ethnic homogeneity in shaping the use of violence directed against the two types of co-ethnic targets in the buildup phase of ethno-separatist war. We conclude that ethnic demographic structures matter for how the rebels treat co-ethnics in the early phase of war before they have established territorial control.     

Nationalism and Organized Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Microspatial Perspective

This article analyzes the relationship between nationalism, territory, and organized violence in the ethnonational contestation over Nagorno-Karabakh. Drawing on new empirical material, I highlight discursive, perceptual, and representational aspects of territoriality that contribute to conflict intractability. I argue that a consideration of these dimensions has the potential to provide a fuller explanation of territorial rigidity than a single focus on the indivisibility of territory. The article further questions strong versions of “ethnic entrepreneurship” accounts. I advocate a perspective that considers the microsocial context of the shift to violent strategies. Oral narratives and their reinterpretation via interpersonal networks are highlighted as key mechanisms of individual radicalization.     

Demographic manipulation in the Caucasus (with special reference to Georgia)

The author discusses political developments in the Caucasus region since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The focus is on the events in Georgia that led to the war in South Ossetia (particularly in Abkhazia), and the author suggests that this development is the latest in a 200-year history of demographic manipulation of minority peoples by the region's two major powers, Russia and Georgia. Parallels are drawn between the Georgian war in Abkhazia and Russia's war in Chechenia. The author questions the value of the principle of territorial integrity, and suggests that alternative principles safeguarding the rights of ethnic minorities would be more appropriate in these circumstances.     

A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict: Testing the Impact of Sampling Bias, 1919–1992

This article develops a new unified territorial explanation of conflict that accounts for the possibility of certain factors affecting the rise of a militarized dispute, as well as the probability that a dispute will escalate to war. In the past, research linking territorial disputes to a relatively high probability of war outbreak has been criticized for underestimating the potential problem of sampling bias in the militarized interstate dispute (MID) data. This study utilizes newly available data on territorial claims going back to 1919 to determine, using a two-stage estimation procedure, whether the presence of territorial claims in the dispute onset phase affects the relationship between territorial militarized disputes and war in the second stage. It is found that territorial claims increase the probability of a militarized dispute occurring and that territorial MIDs increase the probability of war, even while controlling for the effect of territorial claims on dispute onset. The effect of territory across the two stages is consistent with the new territorial explanation of conflict and war and shows no sampling bias with regard to territory in the MID data.     

The OSCE and ethnic conflicts in Estonia,Georgia, and Tajikstan: A search for sustainable peace and its limits

This article analyzes some of the experiences of the OSCE in Estonia, Georgia, and Tajikistan. Conflicts in these three countries followed the demise of the Soviet Union and had basic aspects in common: actual and potential border claims; the presence of a large number of national minorities whose ethnicity is shared with neighbouring kin‐ethnic states; as well as conflicting claims of national self‐determination and territorial integrity. By comparing and contrasting these cases, this article discusses the implications of the OSCE's approach and its limits in the context of the former Soviet Union, and offers some policy recommendations for the future OSCE's activities in this region. The central arguments are as follows: the OSCE has played a significant role in building a sustainable peace in the former Soviet Union where few European institutions have attempted to intervene; and that while being heavily influenced by Russian policies, the OSCE's activities in the CIS were not simple reflections of Russian interests.     

Libya: Teetering Between War and Diplomacy The Islamic State’s Role in Libya’s Disintegration

This analysis explores post-Qaddafi Libya as it becomes a failed state, alongside international efforts to mend its internal rifts and restore an effective government and thereby halt its national disintegration. Attaining a modus vivendi amongst the internal rival political and military actors looks to enable a war effort to loosen the grasp of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which infiltrated Libya’s Mediterranean coast in 2014 and gained a strategic foothold in the heart of Libya and nearby its oil ports – Libya’s economic lifeline. An internal agreement looks to rebuild the state security system that can confront the continuing tribal, ethnic, Salafi-jihadistic, and criminal militarisation of Libya, which also contributes to its bloody chaos. This exegesis focuses on the brief but challenging period of 2014-2016 in terms of the threats to Libya’s governmental and territorial integrity, outlining the principal junctures and actors.     

对东北亚地区领土争议的战略思考(英文)

Historical experience of resolving territorial disputes in all parts of the world shows that the disputed territory itself has neither the strategic depth nor sufficient maneuvering space. It is hard to make any progress when solely focusing on resolving the territorial issue. How to keep the territorial issue in a controllable and appropriate place has posed a great challenge to the Northeast Asian countries.     

A territorial history of the international system

This article charts the evolution of the international system from the post‐Napoleonic wars to the present, with special reference to growth in the number and configuration of states as well as changes in territorial sovereignty involving those states. Growth and change in the international system was found to occur largely in the 20th century. In that time, war plays a major role in precipitating the growth of the international system, although war is less significant in changes in territorial sovereignty. Finally, it was noted that major powers were involved in one half of the territorial changes. Implications for the future of the international system are discussed.     

Setting Aside the “Others”: Exclusion amid Inclusion of Non-dominant Minorities in Peace Agreements

This article analyzes the exclusion-amid-inclusion of “Others” within territorial power-sharing arrangements. While territorial power-sharing is often used to accommodate national minorities, it risks excluding non-dominant minorities at sub-state levels of governance. The article charts how negotiated settlements have addressed this dilemma by formally acknowledging the plurality of non-dominant minorities within territorial power-sharing arrangements, including de facto minorities and other “non-aligned” or less politically relevant minorities. Using the PA-X Peace Agreements Database, this article conducts a qualitative content analysis of 1518 peace agreements from 1990-2016, to shed light on the EAI dilemma within negotiated settlements in divided societies.     

Democratization and European standards of National minority protection: Polish issues

This article considers how a nationally homogeneous state in East‐Central Europe, Poland, which in this respect is comparable to Hungary and the Czech Republic, has responded to a major post‐1989 challenge – that of meeting European standards of national minority protection within a civic‐territorial model of democracy. The forced assimilation and repression of such minorities as the Ukrainians and the Belarusans in prewar and communist Poland is now being handled within a common pan‐European perspective; this offers a model for the resolution of ethnic‐communal conflicts in the remainder of the highly differentiated post‐communist space. Although Poland's national minorities are now very small, historical memories of bad integral nationalist practice has induced post‐1989 governments to allay external criticism of alleged ethno‐nationalism by meeting European standards in this area as a key step towards eventual EU membership. The dual identity, linguistic, cultural and autonomy‐seeking characteristics of its currently non‐state‐destroying (that is, non‐secessionist) minorities points to comparisons with such groups as the Welsh or the Bretons. It argues for the redefinition of ‘normal’ as against more publicized aggressive forms of East European nationalism.     

Is the Russian federation becoming more democratic? Moscow‐regional relations and the development of the post‐Soviet Russian State

This article addresses the condition of Russian democracy by focusing on the developing political relations between the central government and regional governments. A situation of profound ambivalence and ambiguity has evolved since ratification of the Russian Federation Constitution in December 1993. Regional governments have found it possible to gain a degree of political autonomy uncharacteristic of Russia's long historical experience, yet increasingly in line with global trends toward decentralization of governmental authority. Two political patterns in the current Russian Federation are explored, both of them promising broad and enduring significance. First, the political ambiguity of relations between the national government and regional authorities may provide the context in which divided government serves to enable democracy, despite the appearance of authoritarian rule in many regions themselves. Second, the nature of the interaction between the centre and regional authorities may be breaking new ground, in terms of flexible solutions to intra‐state relations among different levels of government. Because certain aspects of centre‐regional relations in the Russian Federation replicate comparable issues elsewhere (particularly regarding the ethnic‐territorial dimension of politics), the Federation's approaches and solutions to this aspect of state‐formation could suggest useful lessons for other parts of the world.     

Ethnos,demos and democratization: A comparison of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

With the collapse of European communism, Western observers and leaders fostered new expectations about the relative likelihood for post‐communist nations to ‘join the West’. The Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary were seen as least problematic candidates, sponsored especially by the German leadership. A troubling issue however is the emerging pattern of ethnos‐politics, identity politics based on blood ties, as opposed to demos‐politics, civic politics based on universal territorial citizenship. In the Czech Republic this ethnos‐politics appears most clearly as anti‐Romany racism and governmental discrimination. In Poland and Hungary, centre‐right parties have developed a politics of ethnic patriotism which labels opponents as traitors and foreign elements. In these nations, political liberalism has been too weak and often too opportunist to offer a viable demos‐politics as a counterweight. Instead, the ex‐communist successor parties in Poland and Hungary have re‐emerged as the mass base for a non‐nationalist demos‐politics. The West has yet to take seriously the new ethnos‐politics, prefering to give priority to economic and foreign‐policy compatibility. The admission of these nations into the European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization would give new legitimacy to ethnos within the West, and reinforce the ethnos‐politics of Austria's Haider and France's LePen.     

The Partnership–Conditionality Binary in the Western Balkans: Promoting Local Ownership for Sustainable Democratic Transition

This article addresses themes relating to the principles of conditionality and partnership, together with the principle of local ownership in the Western Balkans, notably in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia-Montenegro and Kosovo. Specifically assessing the emotive territorial questions facing these Western Balkan countries, the article posits that the international community should aim to promote local ownership in the will to sustainable political transition. Given the EU's focus on the Western Balkans as set out in the European Security Strategy and Thessaloniki summit (2003) and developed through the process of Stabilisation and Association, the author advocates a partnership approach that instils local ownership. It is argued that such an approach has a better chance of responding imaginatively and functionally to unresolved territorial questions. In the second section of this article the author applies the concept of partnership to the territorial challenges facing Bosnia, Serbia-Montenegro and Kosovo. Partnership, as based on the concepts of local ownership and needs-based responsiveness, as opposed to strictly codified conditionality set by Dayton, UN Resolution 1244 and the EU Stabilisation and Association process, is more likely to resolve the ongoing principal territorial political tensions in the Western Balkans.     

南海问题与中美新型双边军事关系的构建

南海领土争端非常复杂,与海上优势和领土主张有关的新利益和竞争背后存在战略动机。虽然20世纪90年代后期和过去十年间南海保持着相对和平,但是复现的争议及潜在的冲突升级除了凸显各声索国之间的角力外,更反映了南海问题正在由资源领土之争上升演变为中美两国的地缘战略博弈。中美两国在南海地区的互动,特别是两军愈发频繁的海空相遇以及由此引发的冲突或事故,因此中美两国发展新型双边军事关系是非常必要的。中美两国在南海附近的相遇存在冲突升级的可能性,同时,美国的亚太同盟的存在一定程度上阻碍了中美的双边军事交流。缺乏有效的沟通机制造成了中美双边军事关系的低互动性以及两国战略互信的缺失。考虑到南海作为至关重要的海上交通线,其潜在的海洋资源以及未解决的领土争端,中美两国应该如何更好地理解和解决不断出现的安全挑战并且建立管理危机的机制,这对亚太地区的重要国家(包括美国和中国)都有重大的政策启示。     

非传统安全视角下的东盟国家问领土边界争端及解决思路

从非传统安全视角看,东盟国家间领土边界争端与经济安全、文化安全和生态安全等因素密切相关。资源储量丰富的区域、文化古迹和无国界的生态体系都成为引发东盟国家间领土边界争端的因素。从安全角度讲,建构东盟“安全共同体”是一条解决东盟国家间领土边界争端有效可行的途径。     

States,Nations, and Territorial Stability: Why Chinese Hegemony Would Be Better for International Order

How would a hegemonic China shape international norms related to states, nations, and territoriality? Scholars have noted the conflict between the right of minority nations to self-determine and the right of states to maintain their territorial integrity. An unrestricted application of the former would risk considerable state fragmentation; an unconditional acceptance of the latter would condemn stateless nations to a subordinate status. Powerful actors like the United States have attempted to navigate these norms by specifying the conditions under which one norm should take precedence over the other, but such decisions are difficult to make in an international environment that lacks consensus, and the result is an ambiguous international order where conflict is common. I analyze the future of these norms in a Chinese-led international order, explaining why China would champion territorial integrity over self-determination, and why this would be better for territorial stability.