美国实战威慑核战略：理论、历史与现实

以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50～60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的"三元悖论",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。     

冷战后美国的防扩散政策

冷战后美国的防扩散政策王玲一、冷战结束后，美国军控政策的重点转到防止大规模毁灭性武器及导弹在第三世界的扩散。苏联解体后，美国将其防务重点从对付苏联的全球威胁转向对付地区冲突。在继续关注与俄罗斯实施削减战略核武器协议、消除美俄核对抗态势的同时，突出地强...     

冷战后美国的防扩散政策

冷战后美国的防扩散政策王玲一、冷战结束后，美国军控政策的重点转到防止大规模毁灭性武器及导弹在第三世界的扩散。苏联解体后，美国将其防务重点从对付苏联的全球威胁转向对付地区冲突。在继续关注与俄罗斯实施削减战略核武器协议、消除美俄核对抗态势的同时，突出地强...     

论以色列核政策与核战略的特点和影响

以色列核政策与核战略的演变可分为3个阶段.当前其主要特点是发展"三位一体"的核力量结构,加强核武器的威慑力和实战能力;采取"核模糊"政策,既谋求核威慑,也规避"国际合法性"的问题;全力防止中东其他国家拥有核武器.以色列核政策与核战略的主要影响包括:拥有核武器有助于以色列的军事安全,但加剧了中东紧张局势;对国际核不扩散体系产生严重负面效用,阻碍地区核不扩散机制的建立;可能促使以色列的阿拉伯和伊斯兰邻国发展核武器,增加了中东地区发生核冲突的可能性.     

俄罗斯核战略调整和核力量建设现状

近年来,俄罗斯当局根据趋于严峻的安全形势不断对其“现实遏制”军事战略进行调整,作为俄军事战略主要依托的核战略及核力量建设也在不断完善充实,更加强调“先发制人”思想,突出核武器的威慑作用,把核武器作为遏制对俄及其盟国发动战争的主要手段。一、俄罗斯核战略的调整苏联解体后,俄罗斯核战略几经调整,从叶利钦时代承诺不首先使用核武器,到现在宣布将进行“先发制人”的核打击,俄核战略思想有了新的发展。(一)对所处安全环境的分析更为现实。20世纪90年代末,俄罗斯颁布的《军事学说》认为俄面临的安全环境甚为理想,甚至没有明确的作战…     

俄罗斯与伊朗核问题

俄罗斯是唯一与伊朗保持核合作的国家,但俄伊核合作并不是引发近年来伊朗核危机的问题所在.俄罗斯支持伊朗发展核能,反对使用武力解决伊核问题,但并不鼓励伊朗发展核武器.俄对伊核问题的政策受到俄伊关系、俄美关系及俄中东战略的影响.俄处理伊核问题的态度充分反映出俄伊关系的复杂性.     

北约对巴基斯坦“以核慑常”核战略学说的影响及塑造

1998年掌握核武器之后,巴基斯坦战略学界普遍支持在常规战争中"首先使用"核武器打击印度常规军事进攻的"以核慑常"核战略学说,该学说成为了主导巴基斯坦核战略的核心思想,并塑造了巴基斯坦的国家安全观。为什么巴基斯坦会产生"以核慑常"核战略学说?现有的两种解释均存在着较大缺陷:一种认为,中国是巴基斯坦重要的战略伙伴,巴基斯坦"首先使用"核武器的核战略学说主要来源于中国;另一种认为,巴基斯坦精英阶层根据本国的国情提出了"以核慑常"核战略学说。笔者通过分析发现,中国和巴基斯坦虽然有紧密的战略伙伴关系,但中国的"不首先使用"核武器的战略并未成为巴基斯坦的学习对象。巴基斯坦的战略文化属于外向型战略文化,其表现特点是倾向于学习强者的国家安全观,北约的"以核慑常"核战略学说是当前国际社会最为流行的核战略学说,因此,该学说极大的影响和塑造了巴基斯坦核战略安全观。     

评奥巴马政府《核态势评估报告》

2010年版美国<核态势评估报告>首次对冷战后美国核战略做了整体性审查与评估."报告"分析了后冷战时代国际安全环境的根本性变化及美国国家安全面临的主要风险,新明确了美国核政策的指导原则与主要目标.在此基础上,报告"阐明了奥巴马政府在应对国际安全挑战的同时保持多重利益关系平衡的新核政策.     

法国核政策与核战略的特点与影响

从冷战到后冷战到“9·11”之后的三个时期，法国的核政策与核战略经历了三个阶段的演变。当前主要特点是：强调“有效反击”核威慑战略；使核打击力量向精干和精确方向转型；积极参加国际防核扩散进程，但仍保持一定的独立性；大力发展民用核能。法国核政策的演变有助于推动国际防核扩散和核裁军进程。但其扩展核威慑的范围和核武器的更新换代也给国际核不扩散带来负面影响。     

美国核战略的新变化--美国<核态势评估报告>分析

美国新的核战略与冷战时期的核战略在战略思维、战略原则、战略态势等方面发生了重大变化,新的核战略思想也是前者在新形势下的调整、发展和演变.对两者加以比较和分析,有助于我们加深对美国新核战略的认识.     

Going non-nuclear in the nuclear alliance: the Danish experience in NATO

Danish nuclear policy is at a crossroads. Looking back, Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology has been a difficult balancing act for successive governments, trying to soothe an anti-nuclear domestic sentiment on one side and the membership of a nuclear military alliance on the other. This history produced an enduring double approach to nuclear policy by Copenhagen throughout the cold war. Looking ahead, this history is of particular relevance as Denmark and Greenland are considering lifting their twenty-five-year ban on mining radioactive elements and allowing the production of Greenland's uranium. With Greenland's large reserves potentially catapulting this otherwise non-nuclear and non-mining kingdom into one of the world's top suppliers of uranium, the policy debate has to include a look back at Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology, for both peaceful and military purposes.     

浅析俄罗斯的东北亚战略

随着冷战的结束和苏联的解体,国际经济和政治格局发生了巨大的变化,进入了一个新的调整时期。尤其是20世纪90年代以来,经济区域化和全球化的发展趋势加快,东北亚区域的合作也随之发展。东北亚地区曾是冷战的前沿地区,目前又因其聚集了大国经济发展的潜力,而成为当前世界经济发展的一个热点地区。在这一国际经济、政治势力角逐的舞台上,俄罗斯无疑扮演着十分重要的角色。近年来,俄罗斯非常重视与亚太地区特别是东北亚地区的联系,并为此制定了一系列较完整的地区性战略,正是以这一战略为基础,俄罗斯从政治、经济、军事等方面在东北亚地区展开了积极的攻势。     

Bridging the Realist/Constructivist Divide: The Case of the Counterrevolution in Soviet Foreign Policy at the End of the Cold War

The surprising end of the Cold War has led to a debate within international relations (IR) theory. Constructivists have argued that the end of the Cold War is best explained in terms of ideas and agency—specifically Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev's new thinking. A few realists have countered that Soviet material decline was "endogenous" to the new ideas. Can these two theoretical perspectives be reconciled with respect to this case? They can be partially integrated with a path-dependent strategy that places an emphasis on "institutions." Nevertheless, explaining the end of the Cold War largely requires a theory of Soviet foreign policy and its relation to the state. As a former or ossified revolutionary state, Soviet foreign policy for at least several years was largely based on the principle of externalization: outside threats were used to rationalize radical centralization, repression, and the dominance of the Party. In using the USSR's institutionalized legacy as a revolutionary state, Gorbachev acted as a counterrevolutionary and reversed this process with his revolution in foreign policy. In creating a new peaceful international order, he sought—through the "second image reversed"—to promote radical decentralization, liberalization, and the emergence of a new coalition. The case examines how Gorbachev's domestic goals drove his foreign policy from 1985 to 1991.     

冷战期间缅甸的中立外交政策

独立后的缅甸一直奉行独立自主的中立外交政策,在与中美苏三大国的关系上表现的尤为突出。冷战期间,缅甸与三大国的外交关系有以下特点:其一,缅甸与三大国都基本上保持着正常的关系,没有产生大的矛盾和冲突;其二,不与任何大国结盟,从不倒向任何一方。其三,在与三大国的关系中,缅中关系显得更为密切,但两国仍属于正常的国家关系,并没有结成同盟。总的来说,缅甸的对外政策确实是中立和不结盟的。     

British cultural diplomacy and the cold war: 1946-61

Why was Britain so reluctant to use the tools of cultural diplomacy for the cold war? First, the habits of administration and the effects of war encouraged a compartmentalization of effort. There was no obvious point at which to construct an overview or a strategy which could match the Soviet enterprise. Second, the dissolution of the empire exposed the racism and ethnic tensions which had existed in both the United Kingdom and its colonies. Policymakers appeared to be pursuing incompatible objectives. They found it difficult to think about post-colonial influence except in terms of a policy for the Commonwealth, but also to construct such a line of action. The insubstantiality of cultural diplomacy is part of the trauma of losing great power status. Arab nationalism was the major force which prompted government into action on cultural affairs. Commitments were made before the military operations in Suez.     

中国在朝鲜半岛的地缘安全战略分析

朝鲜半岛地处东北亚核心地带,是我国重要的战略侧翼。作为与中国山水相连、唇齿相依的邻邦,朝鲜半岛在中国的地缘安全战略中一直具有极其重要的意义。冷战结束以来,朝鲜半岛的地缘政治环境发生了重大变化,原来由美苏主导的两极格局趋向多极化,在某种程度上形成了大国相互竞争的局面,处于较弱地位的朝韩两国也不由自主地被纳入了周边大国的战略轨道,半岛形势空前复杂化。而两次朝核危机的爆发更使朝鲜半岛局势的发展跌宕起伏,波折不断。面对错综复杂的半岛形势,中国从"维护朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定"这一战略目标出发,确立了以"对话和合作"为基本特征的安全战略,并积极推动朝核问题的和平解决,为缓和半岛紧张局势,维护东北亚地区和平与稳定发挥了不可替代的作用。     

The OSCE and ethnic conflicts in Estonia,Georgia, and Tajikstan: A search for sustainable peace and its limits

This article analyzes some of the experiences of the OSCE in Estonia, Georgia, and Tajikistan. Conflicts in these three countries followed the demise of the Soviet Union and had basic aspects in common: actual and potential border claims; the presence of a large number of national minorities whose ethnicity is shared with neighbouring kin‐ethnic states; as well as conflicting claims of national self‐determination and territorial integrity. By comparing and contrasting these cases, this article discusses the implications of the OSCE's approach and its limits in the context of the former Soviet Union, and offers some policy recommendations for the future OSCE's activities in this region. The central arguments are as follows: the OSCE has played a significant role in building a sustainable peace in the former Soviet Union where few European institutions have attempted to intervene; and that while being heavily influenced by Russian policies, the OSCE's activities in the CIS were not simple reflections of Russian interests.     

British cultural diplomacy and the cold war: 1946–61

Why was Britain so reluctant to use the tools of cultural diplomacy for the cold war? First, the habits of administration and the effects of war encouraged a compartmentalization of effort. There was no obvious point at which to construct an overview or a strategy which could match the Soviet enterprise. Second, the dissolution of the empire exposed the racism and ethnic tensions which had existed in both the United Kingdom and its colonies. Policymakers appeared to be pursuing incompatible objectives. They found it difficult to think about post‐colonial influence except in terms of a policy for the Commonwealth, but also to construct such a line of action. The insubstantiality of cultural diplomacy is part of the trauma of losing great power status. Arab nationalism was the major force which prompted government into action on cultural affairs. Commitments were made before the military operations in Suez.     

Geopolitical pluralism in the CIS: The emergence of GUUAM

This article argues that the 12 states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are evenly divided into two groups that are grouped around Russia and Ukraine. The emergence of these two groups, one of which is decidely pro‐Western and pro NATO ‐GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova) ‐is a sign of what Brzezinski defined as early as 1994 as geopolitical pluralism has finally emerged in the former USSR. US policy, he argued, should be the consolidation of this geopolitical pluralism within the former Soviet Union as the means by which a non‐imperial, ‘normal’ Russian nation‐state would emerge with whom a ‘genuine American‐Russian partnership’ could be secured. Brzezinski signalled that Ukraine was the key state that prevented the revival of a new Russian empire and therefore aided the consolidation of Russian democracy. One could add that GUUAM, as an organization led by Ukraine, should also therefore play a central role in US and Western policy towards the former USSR.     

Reluctant disarmer: Italy's ambiguous attitude toward NATO's nuclear weapons policy

Of the five North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) European countries of US nuclear forward deployment, Italy is the least-known and studied case, even though the country hosts the largest number of US nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) and still has two bases of deployment. The paper aims at filling this gap by analyzing Italy's current view on the presence, value, and future of NSNWs hosted on its territory. The analysis begins with the examination of the process of profound devaluation that has minimized, starting from the end of the cold war, Italy's original interest in this category of weapons. It then examines the reasons why Rome continues to pursue conservative nuclear weapon policies and distances itself significantly from the progressive camp of NATO members, particularly Germany, that explicitly call for the withdrawal of US NSNWs from Europe. Through the study of the Italian domestic politics and security culture, the article explains Italy's opposition to any radical change in the NATO nuclear status quo, and its reluctance to pursue policies that are consistent with the process of nuclear devaluation that the country has experienced over the past two decades.