The Mexican Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2000 and Democratic Transition

The article examines the presidential and congressional elections of July 2000 in Mexico. The elections brought to an end more than 70 years of single party government and the culmination of a gradual democratisation process stretching back at least a decade. The long term decline in the bases of support for the regime and the changing institutional rules for elections and parties are described by way of contextualising the campaign itself and its leading protagonists. While the new rules of the game guaranteed free and fair elections, issues of internal party democracy and negative, personality-based campaigning do not paint a universally rosy democratic picture. Analysis of the election results demonstrates how the opposition was able to move beyond its traditional geographic confines and challenge across the country. However, voters did not give an unambiguous victory to Vicente Fox; his alliance does not possess a majority in either house of congress. Divided government and developments in the party system are considered as two key issues that will shape Mexico's democratic future.     

日本农业发展的困境及政策调整

日本农业发展一直以高关税、高补贴著称,尽管政权更迭,这一政策取向基本保持不变。但是随着国内外政治经济环境的变化,其农业政策也在不断进行调整、修正和补充。近年来,日本出生率下降、人口老龄化问题日益严重,农业劳动力减少,加之耕地面积降低,以及跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系(TPP)协议对农业影响的不确定性,日本农业政策亟需调整。2015年日本出台了新的《食品、农业与农村地区基本规划》,对今后5~10年的农业发展进行了规划。文章将以此为基础分析日本农业发展面临的困境,并简要介绍日本新的农业政策。     

The Formation of the New Government in Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan Relations

This article introduces the background of the presidential and congressional election and discusses the reason for the results. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won both the presidential and congress members' elections, which signals emergence of the first real regime change in Taiwan. However, the style of the Tsai government isn't the same as that of the Chen Shui-bian government and will probably adopt a more modest policy on the cross-strait issue. On the other hand, the Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the election so severely that it's so difficult to recover the situation. On this point, it’s possible that the policy framework of Taiwan, like a two party system, will change drastically in the near future. Foreign policy, especially policy regarding Japan, will be changed by the new government. Actually, the People's Republic of China (PRC) government basically didn't interfere with Ma's foreign policy, so Ma could achieve many foreign policy initiatives. He concluded an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Singapore and New Zealand, and agreements for investment and fishing with Japan. However, the PRC probably won't provide enough room for foreign policy for the Tsai government.     

美国对华决策政治系统及要求

自 2 0世纪 70年代以来特别是冷战结束以后 ,美国外交决策系统由原来的相对集中和由总统占垄断地位向一个开放和多元的系统转变。本文使用政治的分析方法考察了美国对华决策系统的结构以及各个要求的作用和影响 ,并提出通过影响国会、利益集团和媒体的要求进而影响美国对华政策的观点。     

发展过程中的利益协调——印尼与马来西亚的比较分析

印尼和马来西亚都经历了近三十年的经济高速增长 ,但亚洲金融危机以后 ,两个国家出现了两个截然不同的结果 ,一个社会动荡 ,一个社会稳定。当然 ,造成此种结果的因素很多。比较分析表明 ,注重利益协调的社会政策起了关键性的作用 ,而国家政权在利益协调中同样起着关键性的作用     

Parliamentarianism and anti-parliamentarianism in Portugal. The voices of the republicans, 1910–26

In Portugal the republican regime broke ties with the monarchy, advocating the need to reassume the national principle, as well as the secularization of its foundations and of the state itself. With the establishment of the new parliamentary republic in 1910 and the debate between republic and monarchy, the supporters of parliamentarianism saw a rupture in the composition and relationship between the powers foreseen in the constitutional charter of 1826, which gave more power to the king during the period of the constitutional monarchy. This made republicans grow closer to the constitution of the French Third Republic, the Brazilian constitution of 1891, the 1812 constitution of Cadiz and the 1822 Portuguese constitution, owing to the fact that these were radical liberal constitutions that conferred national sovereignty. The republicans put forward various arguments both to defame and to defend parliamentarianism. Nevertheless, as in the constitution of 1822, the republican constitution of 1911 stipulated that the congress (the Portuguese Parliament) would be, in theory, the only body that could regulate the political guidelines of the republic.     

Acknowledgments

The author argues that Western policy towards Myanmar over the last twenty years has been not only demonstrably ineffective, but has also completely ignored the admittedly somewhat hesitant efforts of the military regime to improve relations with the West. Although the regime has been presentationally inept, the generals do seem to be moving towards some sort of elections in 2010. The West will need to decide how to respond to those elections. Continuing total condemnation of the regime may not be the best option.     

从政治整肃到行政规训:新经济政策时期苏维埃政权的知识分子政策

十月革命既是伟大的政治革命,同时也是深刻的"思想革命"以及更为艰巨的"文化革命".新经济政策既是苏维埃政权在经济领域政策的重大调整,也是其在文化政策和意识形态上的重大变化.出于政权安全和国家安全的考虑,苏维埃政权对部分反共反苏知识分子采取了政治整肃、司法镇压乃至驱逐出境的手段,这在当时曾在相当大的程度发挥了积极作用,但同时也遗留下了历史隐患.     

British Campaigns for Solidarity with Argentina and Chile

The Chile solidarity movement persuaded British Labour governments (1974–1979) to introduce a range of measures against the Pinochet regime. But campaigners lobbying against the Argentine dictatorship (1976–1983) had less impact on policy. Neither these Labour governments nor the subsequent Conservative government imposed any sanction on the Argentine dictatorship, until the invasion of the Falkland Islands. This article explores why in Britain – and Europe – the Chile campaign had greater public appeal than the Argentina solidarity campaigns. It identifies a number of common factors across Europe which explain why the anti-Pinochet cause generated more support than the Argentina campaign.     

Foreign policy options for a new South Africa

Progress towards the creation of a post‐apartheid South Africa raises questions about future foreign policy. In this article a framework for analysis and forecasting is developed. The basic assumption is that a future foreign policy will be driven by the kind of regime which will emerge in a New South Africa. Such a regime will have to develop foreign policy orientations to deal with its regional and global environments and the manifestation of a variety of foreign policy issues in these environments.

A semi‐democracy is foreseen for a New South Africa which will adopt a regional leadership oreitnation towards its neighbours and a consumer orientation towards the global community. The framework makes provision for regime improvements which will lead to fuller international participation or regime decline which will result in international marginalisation.     

Towards Development-Oriented Foreign Policy in Latin America: The Cases of Ecuador and Chile

Latin American nations have, in varying degrees, struggled to form a foreign policy which successfully incorporates developmental issues. Through an institutional analysis, this article identifies the institutional frameworks within which a development-oriented foreign policy (DOFP) is more prone to emerge. It is argued that DOFP has not been able to be consolidated, as foreign policy has primarily remained a tool for regime survival. This is largely because of the institutional exclusiveness and presidentialism embedded in Latin American diplomacy – making foreign policy notoriously vulnerable to regime appropriation. By conducting a comparison between Ecuadorean and Chilean foreign policy, the article sheds light on the institutional components which have allowed the latter to successfully incorporate a development agenda and the former to stumble in its efforts.     

The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia,Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

The crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.     

Friends in High Places: Congressional Influence on the Bureaucracy in Chile

Chile presents a paradox for legislative studies. In most comparative research on the political power of presidents and assemblies in Latin America, the Chilean presidency is considered one of the most powerful in the region. The country's congress is seen, accordingly, as weak and lacking influence over public policy. Such evaluations, however, tend to be based on constitutional and legal faculties (that is, formal powers), and they overlook the substantial influence exerted by the Chilean Congress through informal political channels. This article analyzes literature on informal politics that shows the substantial influence of Chile's Congress on public policy; and, for comparison, presents an empirical study that adds several details to current accounts of congressional influence on the bureaucracy in Chile and describes two mechanisms of congressional influence not contemplated by recent research.     

Dynamics of regime personalization and patron–client networks in Russia, 1999–2014

Many comparative scholars classify personalist regimes as a distinct category of nondemocratic rule. To measure the process of regime personalization, and to distinguish such a process from overall authoritarian reversal, is difficult in comparative context. Using the Russian political regime in 1999–2014 as a case study, we examine the dynamics of regime personalization over time. Relying on original data on patron–client networks and expert surveys assessing the policy influence of the key members of the ruling coalition, we argue that having more clients, or clients who are more powerful, increases the power of patrons – and that where the patron is the ruler, the resulting measure is an indication of the level of personalization of the regime. We trace regime personalization from the changes in political influence of the president's associates in his patron–client network versus that of other elite patron–client networks. We find that as early as 2004, the Russian regime can be regarded as personalist, and is strongly so from 2006 onward.     

When are similar regimes more likely to form alliances? Institutions and ideologies in the post-communist world

Following the collapse of the old communist regimes, 28 post-communist countries chose from among three main foreign security arrangements: commonwealth of independent states (CIS)/collective security treaty organization (CSTO) membership, north atlantic treaty organization (NATO) membership, or neutrality. What explains these choices? We are most interested theoretically in the role played by regime type. The alliances literature typically uses a narrow institutional theory of the effects of regime type, which implies that more democratic regimes are more attractive alliance partners than more authoritarian regimes. Post-communist area specialists will be aware that this institutional theory fails to explain the apparent tendency of more authoritarian post-communist regimes to join the CIS/CSTO. We develop a broader ideological theory of how regime type affects alliances, in which political institutions are complemented by substantive ideological and policy goals. Applying the ideological approach to the post-communist world, we define and measure two main ideological regime types – liberal nationalist regimes and neo-communist authoritarian regimes. Multinomial logit regressions indicate that more democratic, liberal nationalist regimes are more likely to affiliate with NATO, whereas more authoritarian, neo-communist regimes are more likely to join the CIS/CSTO. Moreover, the desire of neo-communist authoritarianism regimes to affiliate with the CIS/CSTO is as strong or stronger than that of neo-liberal democracies to affiliate with NATO – largely because NATO is more reluctant than Russia to accept aspirants. We conclude that the ideological approach to regime type may offer significant explanatory value as a refinement of the institutional approach.     

Changing South Korean Water Policy after Political and Economic Liberalisation

This study explores the way in which South Korean water policy has been dynamically (re-)constructed by continuing political contestations among diverse social forces acting in and through the state in the face of political and economic liberalisation. The path-dependency of the state-driven water resource policy under the former authoritarian regime did not disappear even after the democratisation. It was difficult to transform the old authoritarian and hierarchical water governance to the newly democratic and environmentally friendly one because the Ministry of Construction, as a main actor in driving water policy under the authoritarian regimes, did not give up its interest in a dam-based policy orientation, although it did partially accept institutional tools for democratic policy making, such as public hearings and the participation of civil society in the process of establishing the water policy plan. It also showed democratic and environment-friendly gestures using the rhetoric of environmentalism and localisation. Overall, this article emphasises the importance of the path-dependency of the past authoritarian regimes under democratised society to better understand the current democratic regime’s policy orientation.     

The International Humanitarian Regime and its Discontents: India’s Challenge

Abstract

In recent years, concerns over whether the humanitarian regime as we know it will survive a many-pronged challenge have spurred humanitarian organisations to embark on processes of soul-searching and innovation. With a steadily increasing aid budget and its more active and vocal role in development and humanitarian politics—and in global politics more generally—India has acquired the label of ‘emerging’ humanitarian actor. This article, however, shows that in many ways India has been a humanitarian pioneer, and connects the norms and values of the international humanitarian regime with India’s own philosophical, religious and democratic traditions. It also discusses how Indian policy-makers have critiqued the current United Nations-led international humanitarian regime and investigates how the government of an increasingly powerful and influential Commonwealth country from the South interacts with an international regime created in Europe. For many Indian policy-makers, current humanitarian practices are tainted by what they see as North American and European interventionist and highly political agendas in the South. The article concludes that while there is still a lot to be said for a global, multilateral humanitarian regime led by the United Nations, it need not be Western-biased, either in theory or in practice.     

Power of the law or power of the sword: the conflictive relationship between the executive and the legislative in nineteenth-century Peru

ABSTRACT

The Peruvian parliament was a central institution in the early republic, but so far very little has been written on its history. This is due to the fact that military leaders took control of power for most of the nineteenth century. This article reflects on three main questions: what was the role of the legislative in nineteenth-century Peru? What was its relationship with the executive power? And what part did conflict play in these relationships? Most initial congresses were tasked with writing up constitutions, because institutions had to be created, and there was a strong belief that having a written charter mattered. The strongmen who took power felt the need to obtain legitimacy from both constitutions, and elections, but often did not see eye to eye with congress. This led congress to be closed, particularly when legislators refused to bow down to presidential power.     

Searching for historical analogies in political economy: the Baltic states and the gold standard regime

This article compares the contemporary politico-economic regime in the Baltic countries with the classical gold standard regime, which successfully functioned in the Western world from 1870 until 1914. Both the classical gold standard system and the Baltic political economies were based on a hard currency peg policy supported by a high degree of economic flexibility. Politically, this flexibility was ensured by a strong insulation of economic policy-making due to a weak political left. Furthermore, the classical gold standard system and the Baltic regimes shared an ideational consensus supporting economic liberalism in general and hard currency peg policy in particular.     

The Future of the U.S.–Australian Security Relationship

Abstract

The recent triumph of the Howard government at the polls confirms Australia’s emergence as an increasingly important ally for the United States. It is willing to be part of challenging global missions, and its strong economy and growing self-confidence suggest a more prominent role in both global and regional affairs. Moreover, its government has worked hard to strengthen the link between Canberra and Washington. Political and strategic affinities between the two countries have been reflected in—and complemented by—practiced military interoperability, as the two allies have sustained a pattern of security cooperation in relation to East Timor, Afghanistan, and Iraq in the last five years.

This growing collaboration between the two countries suggests that a reinvention of the traditional bilateral security relationship is taking place. At the core of this process lies an agreement about the need for engaging in more proactive strategic behavior in the changing global security environment, and a mutual acceptance of looming military and technological interdependence. But this new alliance relationship has already tested the boundaries of bipartisan support for security policy within Australia, and will continue to do so despite the latest election results. Issues of strategic doctrine, defense planning, and procurement are becoming topics of fiercer policy debate. Such discussion is likely to be sharpened in the years ahead as Australia’s security relationship with the United States settles into a new framework.