The paradox of integration? European democracy and the debt crisis

Europe is facing both a political crisis of democracy and legitimacy and an economic crisis of debt and competitiveness. These crises seem to point in two distinct directions, growing social unrest over the Europeanized mechanisms of economic adjustment, and increasing efforts at strengthening those same institutions that regulate the adjustment process. Recent analyses have suggested that this failure of democracy will prove decisive; legitimacy for crisis management efforts requires a redemocratization of the European polity. Instead, drawing on an analysis of ordo- and neo-liberal traditions, the article explains how European integration was itself a response to the perceived threat of democratic demands at the domestic level. The body of the article then traces the crisis through three phases, arguing that efforts by state managers reflect a deliberate attempt to depoliticize policy-making processes. Yet the selective intervention—to restore accumulation whilst withdrawing social spending—has only fuelled the politicization of segments of European society. This threatens to test the limits of depoliticization as a governing strategy.     

The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece,but not Japan?

This paper asks why Japan has not yet suffered from a sovereign debt crisis, although its gross public debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Greece. We use a simple stylized model to explain the occurrence of both a fundamental and a speculative debt crisis. We apply this model to both countries and derive some hypotheses about why investors are still ready to hold Japanese Government Bonds. In particular, we point to the significance of domestic debt holdings, to the central bank’s government debt purchases, to investors’ access to “safe havens,” and to the role of an autonomous monetary policy. We also analyze potential challenges to Japan’s long-term fiscal situation, resulting from its aging population.     

Television and terrorism: Implications for crisis management and policy‐making

Because few of us experience terrorism firsthand, the media play an important role in informing us when major incidents occur. Because of its instantaneity and its ability to reach many audiences at once, the electronic media and particularly television can have a significant impact on the various players who become involved in a particular crisis. This article examines the kinds of effects that television can have on four sets of actors most commonly involved in terrorist crises or major incidents: politicians, police, the public and the print media. While some of these effects can be negative, others can be positive. As a whole, however, television tends to diminish the quality of political discourse, with its emphasis on simplification and dramatization. In time of crisis, this can have serious consequences on decision‐makers who depend upon an informed public to understand the issues at stake and the limits on government action. The article ends by examining briefly how these effects relate to the increasing role of the private sector in public safety and security.     

German crisis management and leadership—from ignorance to procrastination to action

The financial crisis of 2008 and even more so the crisis of the Eurozone drastically increased the demand for decisive leadership and public crisis management. Due to the size of its economy and its position in the global as well as in the European economy, Germany should take the lead in this crisis management. Germany’s management of the two crises differs but also shows strong similarities. A “center-left Grand Coalition” managed the global financial crisis; a global crisis in which Germany was one among several relevant global players. A center-right government under the leadership of the same chancellor then during the sovereign debt crisis manages the Eurozone crisis. This is a regional crisis but with global implications. German government was slow in responding to both crises but acted eventually after some procrastination. Both cases, however, differ with regards to Germany’s actual role in crisis management. During the global financial crisis, other global actors pushed Germany to the forefront. The Eurozone crisis, a regional crisis, demands a leading role of Germany, the largest economy and member state of the EU. The paper, however, argued that the German crisis management with regards to the Eurozone is very much driven by ideas that preserve German norms but do not live up to the challenges of the crisis. Germany’s insistence in its own interests and norms hinders the delivery of a comprehensive crisis management of the Eurozone crisis within the European Union.     

Norway and a major international crisis: Suez ‐ the very difficult case

This article reviews Norway's policy during the Suez crisis in 1956, how the policy was formed and how it can be explained. Emphasis is put on the decision‐making process and on the role of the powerful Norwegian Shipowners’ Association. It also discusses Norway's most important interests and considerations in policy formation, and how they were balanced. Norway's Suez policy is seen in connection with the close relations with Israel, which could be viewed as in conflict with the protection of Norway's NATO membership and vital economic interests, represented by the powerful shipowners. In the end, Norway's Suez policy is put in the context of the change in Norwegian foreign and security policy in general, a shift in emphasis from being Britain's close ally and friend to being under the protective umbrella of the US, the new superpower.     

The political origins of South Korea's economic crisis: Is democratization to blame?

Different explanations have been presented regarding the recent economic crisis in South Korea. After critically evaluating these explanations, the article modifies and refines the dominant model, the mea culpa paradigm, to develop a political, interactive and integrative explanation of the crisis. The economic breakdown during the Kim Young Sam regime in Korea (1993–98) was mainly due to the Kim government's failure to carry out its well‐intended economic reforms, particularly chaebol reforms. The reasons for the failure of the economic reforms, in turn, consist of a set of political factors, including President Kim's distinctive leadership style encapsulated by ‘decretistic populism’, the chaebôl's effective cultural strategies of agenda denial and an anti‐reform campaign by conservative social forces. In this respect, the economic crisis in Korea is also a political crisis. The article refutes a popular interpretation within Korea that blames democracy for the economic crisis, demonstrating that there is at best a very tenuous relationship between the democratization in the country since 1987 and the economic crisis. To overcome the crisis, the current Kim Dae Jung government in Korea should avoid decretistic populism, forge and maintain a constructive alliance with civil society groups and develop a solid coalition for economic reform.     

The lawless presidency: Economic crisis and democratic accountability in Mexico, 1970–94

The Mexican government has adopted policies of market‐oriented reform since 1982 which have for the most part been praised by professional economists. Mexico even joined the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1994. However the performance of the economy has been disappointing. Yet a failure to achieve any real per capita economic growth over an extended period is unusual among Latin American countries which have consistently pursued policies of market‐oriented economic reform. A large part of the explanation has to do with the character of Mexico's political institutions, most notably a lack of democratic accountability. The unmistakable trend toward greater democracy since 1982 has so far been expressed principally in terms of greater honesty and competitiveness in the electoral arena. But there has been no significant reform of the executive branch of government, which has for many years been run on authoritarian principles. This makes it difficult for the Mexican government to control corruption, limit the economic consequences of political shocks and prevent the shifts in political power which occur at the end of each sexenio from destabilising the economy.     

China’s response to the global financial crisis and its regional leadership in East Asia

This paper examines the role of China in the G20 and in East Asia in crafting appropriate responses and policies to the global financial crisis. Did China play an important part in the multilateralisation of the Chiang Mai Initiative, and how did China work with other players in East Asia to ‘inoculate’ East Asia against contagion and fallout from the crisis? The paper evaluates the type of leadership displayed by China and the decisions taken during the crisis. It assesses how the Chinese role in its own region and within global institutions such as the G20 would change in the aftermath of these crises.     

Terrorist crisis management in Japan: Historical development and changing response (1970–1997)

As Japan plays a more significant role in international society, it has become a more attractive target for international terrorists. Under these circumstances, Japan has mostly taken a conciliatory response, as used to deal with the JRA, Aum, MRTA terrorist incidents, in contrast to the hard line response in most Western nations. However, there has been a recent increase in support in Japan for more punitive methods. The aim of this study is to examine how Japan can develop its effective counter and anti‐terrorist capabilities based on the understanding of Japanese cultural and social norms. It surveys the acceptability and effectiveness of policies for combating terrorism in a democratic society such as Japan. A flexible Japanese counter‐terrorist response, which is influenced by characteristics of each terrorist incident could be the most effective strategy.     

The EU,Russia and the potential for dialogue – different readings of the crisis in Ukraine

Recent developments in European security have shown the growing need for a better understanding of the security dynamics on the European continent. This article presents an analysis of differing Russian and European perceptions of European security in general, and concerning the crisis in Ukraine in particular. As much of the literature on these issues has been normatively driven, we aim to provide an impartial presentation and analysis of the dominant Russian and EU discourses. This we see as essential for investigating the potential for constructive dialogue between Russia and the EU. If simplistic assumptions about the motivations and intentions of other actors take hold in the public debate and policy analyses, the main actors may be drawn into a logic that is ultimately dangerous or counterproductive. With this article we offer a modest contribution towards discouraging such a development in Russia–EU relations. After presenting an analysis of the differing EU and Russian perceptions, we discuss the potential for dialogue between such different worldviews, and reflect on potential implications for European security. As the article shows, there are tendencies of a certain adjustment in the Union’s approach that may make a partial rapprochement between the two sides more likely.     

The global financial crisis and self-help groups in rural India: are there lessons from their micro savings model?

The global financial crisis is envisaged to have impacted some Southern countries, including India, less severely than most countries in the North. India's expected economic growth of over nine per cent was brought down to just over five per cent. In the aftermath of the crisis, a positive growth figure itself sent optimistic signals. But in a country where nearly 80 per cent of the population – mostly in rural areas – lives on under US$2 a day with a high level of social and economic vulnerability, the effects of the crisis threaten to push many into deprivation. Yet, scattered evidence suggests the emergence of savings-led self-help groups for women amongst the poorest and socially excluded communities to overcome financial vulnerabilities. Grounded in participatory methods, the focal point this is the individual rural woman driving the well-being and the poverty agenda. The paper considers if there are lessons that can be drawn from this micro-level shift for the larger global crisis.

La crise financière mondiale et les groupes d'entraide en Inde rurale : y a-t-il des enseignements à tirer de leurs modèles de micro-épargne ?

On estime que la crise financière mondiale a eu un impact sur certains pays du Sud, y compris l'Inde, moins important que sur les pays de l'hémisphère Nord. La croissance économique prévue de l'Inde de plus de neuf pour cent a été réduite par la crise à juste un peu plus de cinq pour cent. Au lendemain de la crise, un chiffre de croissance positif a lui-même transmis des signaux optimistes. Mais dans un pays où presque 80 pour cent de la population – principalement en milieu rural – vit avec moins de 2 $ US par jour, avec un important degré de vulnérabilités sociales et économiques, les effets de la crise menacent de faire sombrer de nombreuses personnes dans l'indigence. Or, des données éparpillées suggèrent l'apparition de groupes d'entraide axés sur l'épargne pour les femmes parmi les communautés les plus pauvres et les plus socialement exclues pour leur permettre de surmonter leurs vulnérabilités financières. Avec comme socle les méthodes participatives, ces groupes ont comme axe le fait que ce sont les femmes rurales individuelles qui impulsent l'ordre du jour de la qualité de vie et de la pauvreté. Cet article demande s'il y a des enseignements à tirer de cette évolution au niveau micro pour la crise mondiale dans son ensemble.

La crisis financiera mundial y los grupos de autoayuda en la India rural: ¿existen aprendizajes de su modelo de microahorros?

Es comúnmente aceptado que la crisis financiera mundial ha tenido un impacto menos fuerte en algunos de los países del Sur como India que en la mayoría de los países del Norte. El crecimiento económico de más de 9% previsto para India se redujo a un poco más de 5%. El hecho de que tras la crisis la tasa de crecimiento haya sido positiva generó señales optimistas. Aún así, en un país donde casi 80% de la población – la mayoría residente en áreas rurales – vive con menos de usd 2 diarios y con un elevado nivel de vulnerabilidades socioeconómicas, los efectos de la crisis amenazaron con dejar a muchas personas en la penuria. Sin embargo, algunas investigaciones indican el surgimiento de grupos de autoayuda encabezados por mujeres y centrados en el ahorro, cuyo objetivo es enfrentar la vulnerabilidad financiera en las comunidades más pobres y socialmente marginadas. Utilizando métodos participativos, el centro de atención de este estudio es la mujer campesina que está impulsando los esfuerzos para lograr el bienestar y superar la pobreza. El artículo analiza la existencia de aprendizajes derivados de este cambio a nivel micro que pudieran ser aplicados a la crisis mundial más amplia.

A crise financeira global e grupos de auto-ajuda na Índia rural: há lições a serem tiradas de seu modelo de micropoupança?

Considera-se que a crise financeira global tenha tido impacto menos severo em alguns países do hemisfério sul, inclusive a Índia, do que na maioria dos países do hemisfério norte. A previsão de crescimento econômico da Índia de mais de nove por cento foi reduzida para apenas um pouco acima de cinco por cento. Na sequência da crise, um próprio dado positivo de crescimento enviou sinais otimistas. Mas em um país em que quase 80 por cento da população – a maioria em áreas rurais – vivem com menos de US$2 por dia, com um alto nível de vulnerabilidade social e econômica, os efeitos da crise ameaçam deixar muitos em situação de privação. Porém, evidências dispersas sugerem a emergência de grupos de auto-ajuda que visam poupar para que as mulheres que estão entre as comunidades mais pobres e socialmente excluídas superem as vulnerabilidades financeiras. Baseado em métodos participativos, o ponto de enfoque são as mulheres rurais individuais dirigindo a agenda sobre bem-estar e pobreza. O artigo avalia se existem lições que podem ser extraídas desta mudança de nível micro para a crise global mais geral.     

Governing after crisis – the politics of investigation,accountability and learning Emergency politics – paradox,law, democracy

Sarkozy's decision to bring France back into NATO's integrated military structure in 2009 represents in some ways a break with French exceptionalism. But how deep is this change? This article examines whether the decision has led to a real integration of France along various dimensions of integration; whether the decision represents a continuation or a break with the traditional French approach and the effects of this reintegration on NATO/EU cooperation. The empirical analysis of French political and military practices in NATO combines a focus on macro-level foreign policy formulations with a micro-level study of how French officials and representatives communicate and interact on a day-to-day basis. The analysis shows that France has become increasingly integrated into NATO since 2009 on most dimensions except with regard to cultural integration. Thus, France may be reintegrated in practice, but not yet in principle.     

Making sense of the EU’s response to the Arab uprisings: foreign policy practice at times of crisis

ABSTRACT

The Arab uprisings of 2011 put into question previously held understandings about the stability of authoritarian regimes in North Africa as well as the European Union’s (EU’s) relations with countries in its southern neighbourhood. Despite early calls on behalf of the EU to change its policies, the Union’s responses in the early stages seemed mostly characterised by continuity. This article claims that certain dispositions and background knowledge developed over several decades vis-à-vis EU’s Mediterranean policies served as a baseline from which EU officials and diplomats acted. Drawing on insights from practice approaches, the article argues that the practical understandings on what the EU can (and cannot) do vis-à-vis partner countries in North Africa create a kind of power politics of practical dispositions. The article focuses on the European Neighbourhood Policy - the EU’s flagship initiative - and builds on a unique set of data that combine policy documents and interviews with about 30 EU officials and national diplomats from before and after the Arab uprisings. In this way, it illustrates how practice relates to change in that even though the EU’s responses drew on an established repertoire of practice, enacting it in a new context opened up new possibilities for action.     

Oil,the Suez canal,and sterling reserves: economic factors determining British decisionmaking during the 1967 Arab–Israeli crisis

This article assesses the importance of economic factors for the development of British Middle Eastern policy during the 1967 Arab-Israeli crisis, based on newly declassified government documents. Policy shifted from threatening unilateral action against Nasser to multilateralism and neutraliry shortly before the June war. Economic considerations will be put in the context of anti-interventionist voices in the cabinet, in the defence establishment and within US policy. The article concludes that important reasons for the shift were economic, namely threats of an oil embargo, reserve withdrawals, and Suez Canal closure at a time of fiscal difficulties in Britain. In addition, an ideological shift in cabinet from ‘imperial hangover’ to anti-interventionism underlay the policy change.     

A western cold war: the crisis in Iceland's relations with Britain,the United States,and NATO, 1971–74

The article explores the crisis in Iceland's relations with the Western Alliance following a left-wing government's decisions, in 1971, to expand Iceland's fishery limits and to demand the withdrawal of US military forces. This sparked a cod war with Britain and a diplomatic stand-off with the United States, with NATO in the middle. It analyzes the motives behind Iceland's behaviour – especially the tension between a pro Western foreign policy course and a domestic anti Western nationalism – the Western response within the context of alliance politics and the democratic peace theory, and the role of international mediation and domestic political realignments in diffusing the crisis.     

Shaping the European External Action Service and its post-Lisbon crisis management structures: an assessment of the EU High Representatives’ political leadership

ABSTRACT

This article assesses the role, influence and core aspects of the EU High Representatives’ (HR/VPs) “political leadership” in the context of their efforts to advance the institutionalisation of the EEAS and its crisis management structures in the post-Lisbon era. By combining analytical lenses from the literature on “European political leadership”, foreign policy analysis (FPA) and political psychology with insights from a wide range of semi-structured interviews and primary sources, the article analyses how the leadership approaches of Catherine Ashton and Federica Mogherini were influenced by core aspects, such as institutional setting, situational factors and “personal qualities”. By examining how both HR/VPs and their chosen advisors sought to shape the EU’s EEAS and crisis management institutions, scholars can gain important insights about how “personal qualities” and prior foreign policy experience can influence the HR/VPs strategic choices and their impact within and across the EEAS. Finally, the article considers the differing effects between “maverick” and “orthodox” leadership and approaches and concludes that whilst outside perspectives can bring fresh ideas and institutional innovations, they will fail to be of lasting significance and permanence if not accompanied by sufficient support from the dominant foreign and security policy conventions.