MACRO-MICRO INTEGRATION IN THE STUDY OF VICTIMIZATION: A HIERARCHICAL LOGISTIC MODEL ANALYSIS ACROSS SEATTLE NEIGHBORHOODS*

Recent contextual analyses of victimization survey data are extended by application of hierarchical logistic model techniques. Using a multi-stage sample of 5,090 Seattle residents, we estimate models for individuals' risks of violent crime and burglary victimization as a function of both individual crime opportunity factors (routine activity and personal lifestyle) and contextual indicators of neighborhood social disorganization (neighborhood incivilities on conditions of disorder, ethnic heterogeneity, and neighborhood density in terms of both residents and strangers). Strong contextual direct effects of density, disorder, and heterogeneity are observed for violent and or burglary risks. Further, the hierarchical method used here provides a richer type of contextual analysis, indicating that neighborhood factors also “condition” the impact of crime opportunity factors for risk of both violent and burglary victimization. Implications for theoretical integration, victimization prevention strategies, and crime control policies are discussed.     

SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD FIREARM COLLECTIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUBCULTURES AND GENDER*

Recent work (Cook and Ludwig, 2003) has linked local firearm density to increased burglary victimization risk. The current work investigates within‐household gun density or household firearm collection size. Previous work has suggested two subcultures of gun owners: protection‐minded and sport‐ or hunting‐minded. It also has identified gender gaps in reporting any household guns and in the number reported. None of the earlier work, however, has controlled for selection into gun‐owning household status. This limitation raises potential questions about earlier findings. The current research controls for selection. If the two subcultures thesis is correct, protection‐minded owners should report smaller household firearm collections. The expected impact is observed in one national survey and is partially replicated in a second. Gender gaps seemed more independent than previously suggested. This study is the first to provide evidence of two partially overlapping subcultures of gun owners even after controlling for selection into gun‐owning household status. Practical implications for burglary risk may exist.     

REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE, 1973–2005: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY (NCS) AND NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY (NCVS)*

Although many efforts have been made during the past several decades to increase the reporting of crime to the police, we know little about the nature of long-term crime-reporting trends. Most research in this area has been limited to specific crime types (e.g., sexual assault), or it has not taken into account possible changes in the characteristics of incidents associated with police notification. In this article, we advance knowledge about long-term trends in the reporting of crime to the police by using data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and methods that take into account possible changes in the factors that affect reporting at the individual and incident level as well as changes in survey methodology. Using data from 1973 to 2005, our findings show that significant increases have occurred in the likelihood of police notification for sexual assault crimes as well as for other forms of assault and that these increases were observed for violence against women and violence against men, stranger and nonstranger violence, as well as crimes experienced by members of different racial and ethnic groups. The reporting of property victimization (i.e., motor vehicle theft, burglary, and larceny) also increased across time. Overall, observed increases in crime reporting account for about half of the divergence between the NCVS and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) in the estimated magnitude of the 1990s crime decline—a result that highlights the need to corroborate findings about crime trends from multiple data sources.     

DO NEIGHBORHOODS GENERATE FEAR OF CRIME? AN EMPIRICAL TEST USING THE BRITISH CRIME SURVEY*

For a long time, criminologists have contended that neighborhoods are important determinants of how individuals perceive their risk of criminal victimization. Yet, despite the theoretical importance and policy relevance of these claims, the empirical evidence base is surprisingly thin and inconsistent. Drawing on data from a national probability sample of individuals, linked to independent measures of neighborhood demographic characteristics, visual signs of physical disorder, and reported crime, we test four hypotheses about the mechanisms through which neighborhoods influence fear of crime. Our large sample size, analytical approach, and the independence of our empirical measures enable us to overcome some of the limitations that have hampered much previous research into this question. We find that neighborhood structural characteristics, visual signs of disorder, and recorded crime all have direct and independent effects on individual‐level fear of crime. Additionally, we demonstrate that individual differences in fear of crime are strongly moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics; between‐group differences in expressed fear of crime are both exacerbated and ameliorated by the characteristics of the areas in which people live.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

ESCAPING CRIME: THE EFFECTS OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT VICTIMIZATION ON MOVING*

This article investigates the impact of criminal victimization on household residential mobility. Existing research finds that direct experiences with crime influence mobility decisions, such that persons who suffer offenses near their homes are more likely to move. The current study extends this line of inquiry to consider whether indirect victimization that involves neighbors also stimulates moving. The analysis uses the National Crime Survey to estimate multilevel models that incorporate data from individual households and their spatially proximate neighbors. The results show that the link between direct victimization and moving continues to hold after controlling for neighborhood context. Indirect property victimization also leads to moving, with effects about equal in size to those of direct victimization. In contrast, no evidence is found that violent victimization that occurs in neighboring homes influences mobility, probably because most of these events are nonstranger violence that provokes less anxiety for neighbors.     

REASSESSING THE BREADTH OF THE PROTECTIVE BENEFIT OF IMMIGRANT NEIGHBORHOODS: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS OF VIOLENCE RISK BY RACE,ETHNICITY, AND LABOR MARKET STRATIFICATION*

Researchers in the United States have increasingly recognized that immigration reduces crime, but it remains unresolved whether this applies to people of different racial–ethnic and economic backgrounds. By using the 2008–2012 area‐identified National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), we evaluate the effect of neighborhood immigrant concentration on individual violence risk across race/ethnicity and labor market stratification factors in areas with different histories of immigration. The results of our analysis reveal three key patterns. First, we find a consistent protective role of immigrant concentration that is not weakened by low education, low income, unemployment, or labor market competition. Therefore, even economically disadvantaged people enjoy the crime‐reduction benefit of immigration. Second, we find support for threshold models that predict a nonlinear, stronger protective role of immigrant concentration on violence at higher levels of immigrant concentration. The protective function of immigration also is higher in areas of longer histories of immigration. Third, compared with Blacks and Whites, Latinos receive a greater violence‐reduction benefit of immigrant concentration possibly because they live in closer proximity with immigrants and share common sociocultural features. Nevertheless, immigrant concentration yields a diminishing return in reducing Latino victimization as immigrants approach a near‐majority of neighborhood residents. The implications of these results are discussed.     

EXAMINING THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF AGGREGATION BIAS FOR MULTILEVEL STUDIES OF NEIGHBORHOODS AND CRIME WITH AN EXAMPLE COMPARING CENSUS TRACTS TO OFFICIAL NEIGHBORHOODS IN CINCINNATI*

Different operational definitions of neighborhood boundaries could generate differences in empirical relationships between ecological dynamics and crime. As a call for research on whether aggregation bias is an issue for related studies, this note compares bi‐level models predicting re‐arrest for domestic violence with census tracts versus officially defined city neighborhoods as macro units. Results indicate that both types of units generate the same substantive findings at the aggregate and individual levels of analysis. Similarities also exist between these results and those from previous multilevel studies of crime and victimization despite differences in the aggregate units across studies (including block groups).     

POVERTY, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND COMMUNITY CRIME RATES

This paper examines the relationship between crime rates and aggregate economic conditions for 57 small social areas. The principal analyses address a continuing controversy—are community crime rates associated with absolute poverty, relative poverty (i.e., income inequality), or both. Using victimization data from 57 small residential neighborhoods, the analyses examine the association between absolute and relative poverty and rates of violent crime and burglary. The findings indicate that absolute poverty is more strongly associated with neighborhood crime rates, although the relationship is conditional on the type of crime considered. The implications of the findings are discussed within a perspective of community social control.     

The relationship between socio-economic characteristics, victimization and CPTED principles: evidence from the MIMIC model

This study seeks to explore how different house type, socio-economic variables in the neighborhood (length of residence and household income) and residents’ victimization experience influence Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) and its respective principles: natural surveillance, access control, territoriality and maintenance. The study focuses on a sample of 164 inhabitants from a typical neighborhood in the city of Penang, Malaysia. An observation checklist was used to measure all the four principles of CPTED. A Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause (MIMIC) analysis using AMOS 16.0 was employed to analyze the data at the level of individual property. Each latent factor and the relationships among them were modeled in a priori MIMIC hypothesized model. Prior to the MIMIC analysis, the study employed first and second-order confirmatory factor analysis on CPTED to determine the best indicators for the CPTED construct. The findings confirmed that CPTED is best measured by four principles. The results further indicate that CPTED is associated with a reduced risk of burglary victimization, while household income is positively associated with CPTED. The model shows that territoriality has a negative direct relationship with victimization. There are direct and positive influences of house type on natural surveillance and territoriality, while the length of residence only affects access control.     

REEXAMINING SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY USING CALLS TO THE POLICE AS A MEASURE OF CRIME*

This study examines social disorganization theory using calls to the police during 1980 in 60 Boston neighborhoods. These data, based on complainant reports of crime rather than official police reports, allow further investigation of differences in findings based on victimization data and official crime data. The rates of assault, robbery, and burglary are regressed on poverty, mobility, racial heterogeneity, family disruption, and structural density. Interaction terms for poverty and heterogeneity, poverty and mobility, and mobility and heterogeneity are also explored. Results from this study support findings from recent victimization studies and earlier ecological studies using official counts of crime. Poverty and heterogeneity, along with family disruption and structural density, are found to be important ecological variables for understanding the distribution of crime rates among neighborhoods.     

THE ROLE OF PUBLIC SOCIAL CONTROL IN URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS OF VICTIMIZATION RISK*

This study introduces public social control into multilevel victimization research by investigating its impact on household and personal victimization risk for residents across 60 urban neighborhoods. Public social control refers to the ability of neighborhoods to secure external resources necessary for the reduction of crime and victimization. I find that living in neighborhoods with high levels of public social control reduces an individual's likelihood of victimization, especially in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Given the important role that residents of disadvantaged neighborhoods can play in securing public social control, this contingent finding suggests that disadvantaged neighborhoods can be politically viable contexts.     

Expressive Crimes in Post‐Socialist States of Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania1

The objective of this study is to examine the social determinants of violent victimization, with the principal focus being directed at the significance of neighbourhood conditions. By combining data from victim surveys with information on the neighbourhoods in which the survey respondents live, we have been able to study both the individual and household characteristics, and also the factors specific to different neighbourhoods that are associated with violent victimization. What we are able to show is that the violence that occurs in the residential neighbourhood constitutes only a small fraction of the violent incidents to which people are exposed. Further, the violence that occurs within the neighbourhood takes place to a large extent within the victim's home. This suggests that exposure to violence is associated with neighbourhood conditions only to a limited extent. More detailed analyses of the violence that does occur within the neighbourhood show no effects of neighbourhood conditions when controls are included for individual and household characteristics. The conclusion, therefore, is that we are unable to find any clear neighbourhood effects in relation to violent victimization. The differences that we initially note between different types of neighbourhood in the proportions reporting exposure to violence are too a large degree the result of selection processes. These do not, however, in themselves increase the risk for violent victimization.     

THE EFFECTS OF RESIDENTIAL TURNOVER ON HOUSEHOLD VICTIMIZATION*

Americans move frequently, and moving alters their risks of victimization. This study uses unique longitudinal, multilevel data from the 1980–1985 National Crime Survey to examine the effects of residential turnover on household victimization. The two major findings of the study are as follows: First, housing turnover is a transition that independently increases the risk that a dwelling will experience a crime. This finding is true even controlling for persistent differences in crime vulnerability between dwellings. Second, changes in the composition and routine activities of households also alter the risks of victimization. These findings provide support for social disorganization and crime opportunity theories.     

THE EFFECT OF CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION ON A HOUSEHOLD'S MOVING DECISION*

Only a small body of research addresses the impact of criminal victimization on moving (Skogan, 1990; Taub et al. 1984). Knowledge of this under-researched relationship is important for three reasons. First, moving is costly to the victim both in monetary and psychological terms. Second, if a victimization-mobility relationship exists, then it may partially explain why people migrate to suburban areas from cities. Third, because residential mobility reduces social control that, in turn, potentially results in more crime, evidence that criminal victimization leads to more mobility may help explain a cycle that perpetuates disorder and neighborhood decline (Bursik and Grasmick, 1993; Horwitz, 1990; Miethe and Meier, 1994; Skogan, 1990; Skogan and Maxfield, 1981). This study uses a longitudinal version of the National Crime Survey that includes 22, 375 households to test the hypothesis that criminal victimization is associated with an increased probability that a household moves.     

EXTENDING SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY: MODELING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN COHESION,DISORDER, AND FEAR*

In this study, we build on recent social disorganization research, estimating models of the relationships between disorder, burglary, cohesion, and fear of crime using a sample of neighborhoods from three waves of the British Crime Survey. The results indicate that disorder has an indirect effect on burglary through fear and neighborhood cohesion. Although cohesion reduces disorder, nonrecursive models show that disorder also reduces cohesion. Part of the effect of disorder on cohesion is mediated by fear. Similar results are obtained in nonrecursive burglary models. Together, the results suggest a feedback loop in which decreases in neighborhood cohesion increase crime and disorder, increasing fear, in turn, further decreasing cohesion.     

ROLE OF THE STREET NETWORK IN BURGLARS' SPATIAL DECISION‐MAKING*

Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that “taste” preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.     

THE ELUSIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS AND CRIME: AN ASSESSMENT ACROSS DISADVANTAGED AREAS OF THE SOUTH BRONX

Several theoretical perspectives posit a negative association between the extent of a neighborhood's organizational infrastructure and crime; yet, empirical support for this proposition has been limited in that researchers generally examine only a few types of organizations or combine them into one aggregate measure. Studies with few measures may omit organizations that are effective at reducing crime, whereas those using aggregate measures obscure differences across organizations in their ability to control crime. Using data from 74 block groups in the South Bronx, NY, this research seeks to specify more clearly the relationship between organizations and crime in a disadvantaged urban environment. We examine the relationship among nine different types of organizations and violent and property crime controlling for prior crime, land use, and area sociodemographic characteristics. Consistent with theories that highlight the importance of organizations for establishing ties outside the neighborhood, we find that block groups with more organizations that bridge to the larger community experience a decrease in crime. Property crime also is reduced in block groups with more organizations that promote the well‐being of families and children. We find that schools are associated with an increase in property crime, whereas the effects of other organizations are context specific and vary based on neighborhood racial composition, commercial land use, and disadvantage.     

FEAR OF CRIME AND VICTIMIZATION AMONG THE ELDERLY IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF COMMUNITIES*

The central issue examined here is the effect that community setting, relative to other factors, has on victimization and fear of crime among the elderly. Findings are from 1,410 in-home interviews in two retirement communities (age homogeneous) and two age-heterogeneous communities. Victimization of elderly is low in all communities, and although nearly half of the respondents have some fear of crime, the percentage reporting great fear of crime is low. Victimization and fear of crime are only weakly related to one another, and the regression model for each does not account for much variance. But both are significantly related to the type of community, and fear of crime is also related to other variables. The greater the age density of the community (greater concentration of elderly), the less crime and less fear of crime. Living arrangements, sociodemographic variables, and health status of the elderly as indicators of personal vulnerability to crime are not related to victimization, but are related to fear of crime, and effects of community setting on fear of crime are reduced when these other variables are taken into account. Suggestions for other, unmeasured, sources of variations and implications for future research are presented.     

CITIZEN-BASED CRIME CONTROL ACTIVITY AND VICTIMIZATION RISKS: AN EXAMINATION OF DISPLACEMENT AND FREE-RIDER EFFECTS*

A common criticism of crime control activities is that such efforts simply redistribute crime to more vulnerable locales and persons rather than prevent it. This displacement effect has been widely assumed but rarely evaluated in previous studies. Using a sample of 5,302 Seattle residents who live on 600 city blocks, this study examines the crime-reduction benefits of safety precautions and whether either displacement or a “free-rider” effect best characterizes how the target-hardening activities of immediate neighbors influence risks of burglary, property theft, and vandalism. The results of this study indicate that only individuals' risks of burglary victimization were significantly reduced by protective action. Contrary to both displacement and free-rider hypotheses, individuals' risks and aggregate rates of victimization were largely unaffected by the protective actions of neighbors. The paper concludes with a discussion of these findings and their implications for public policy on crime prevention.