东南亚金融危机对当地华人经济的影响

自去年7月以来，东南亚国家爆发的金融危机至今尚未平息。这次严重的金融危机，对迅速发展的东南亚华人经济造成巨大的冲击。东南亚金融危机爆发后，当地华人经济的发展前景引人关注。一、金融危机前迅速发展的华人经济80年代中期后，随着东南亚经济的迅速起飞，作为当地民族经济有机组成部分的华人经济取得空前的发展。各国华人企业的经济实力急剧扩大，经营结构日趋多元化，海外投资不断扩展，它们在当地经济发展和区域经济合作中扮演着重要角色。近十年，东南亚华人经济实力日益壮大，尤其是华人企业集团的迅速兴起。在印．尼，70年代华…     

东南亚金融危机与世界经济形势的几个问题

1997年7月爆发的东南亚金融风暴,冲击亚洲许多国家和地区,波及到全球。当前关于东南亚金融危机与世界经济形势中有几个问题引起人们的高度重视,众说纷云,莫衷一是。借此机会,想谈一谈我们的一些看法。一、东南亚金融危机未引发全球经济大危机的原因近10余年几次金融风暴(...     

东南亚金融危机的影响及我国的对策

1997年7月初，由泰铁贬值引起的东南亚金融风暴迅速席卷亚洲，波及世界，各国都在关注这次金融危机的发展变化。这场金融危机对一向被世人认为世界上增长较快的东南亚经济的今后发展投下了阴影，对世界上许多国家的经济也带来了不同程度的负面影响。东南亚金融危机的起因值得人们思考、总结，并从中吸取经验教训D。一、东南亚金融危机的起因东南亚金融危机概括起来是内因外因共同作用的结果，但主要是内因，即近年来东南亚经济增长速度普遍放慢，结构不合理的结果。具体表现为以下几个方面：1．“房地产泡沫”破灭，银行呆帐坏帐严重。进入…     

展望21世纪初的东南亚

１９９７年７月泰国发生的金融危机象温疫一样迅速在东南亚地区蔓延。一年多来．该地区笼罩在经济、社会、政治危机的阴影中。这些危机已给东南亚国家造成了重大损失，影响了这一地区与其他国家的关系。研究当前和今后的东南亚形势，对我国的安全很有现实意义。一、当前东南亚国家形势的新变化经过一年多时间的演变．东南亚的金融危机已由当初表现的货币危机引发为包括经济、社会、政治、安全、外交等在内的全方位的严重危机．其主要表现在：１．金融危机蔓延．各国损失惨重。一年多来．金融危机程度不同地影响了东南亚各国的经济，特别是泰…     

东南亚金融危机原因及其影响

东南亚金融危机原因及其影响兰州大学张旭东８０年代以来，亚洲经济飞速发展，其中东南亚国家年平均增长率都在６％以上，创造了经济奇迹。世界各国经济人士都看好亚洲，以至于认为２１世纪是“亚洲的世纪”。正当人们处于无限憧憬之中时，今年７月东南亚爆发了金融危机，...     

云南在21世纪中国面向东南亚开放中的地位和作用

在经历了相当一段时期的高速发展之后,中国与东南亚各国经济正迈向下一个世纪。虽然东南亚各国最近普遍受到金融危机的冲击,其经济发展速度在短时期内会有所减缓,但是这场危机也将促成东南亚各国的经济调整,促使它们找到更加可靠的可持续发展道路。随着这一历史过程的推进,中国与东南亚各国的经济合作将进一步展开。本文结合对十五大文件精神的学习,从云南实际出发,力求对云南在21世纪中国面向东南亚开放中的地位和作用作一基本探索。     

展望世纪之交的东南亚五国经济

在世纪之交，东南亚国家经历了空前的金融危机。在即将过去的一年里，多数国家经济急剧衰退，但也开始显露趋稳或复苏的迹象。在跨入1999年的前夕，东南亚五国经济的发展前景引人关注。一、金融危机对东南亚经济的巨大冲击自1997年7月以来，东南亚国家爆发的金融危机至今尚未平     

全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的影响及危机应对

美国金融危机演变为全球性经济衰退之后，对东南亚的虚拟与实体经济造成了沉重的打击。随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强和全球经济形势的恶化，东南亚经济在2009年面对更为严峻的挑战与考验。东南亚各国在采取各种积极灵活的应对举措的同时，大力推进东盟区域内部的经济整合，加大泛区域甚至跨区域的经济合作，并积极争取外援，以最大限度地减少全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的冲击。     

东南亚华人中小企业现代化之管见

东南亚国家华人中小企业众多 ,相对华人大企业来讲它们影响较小 ,但它们却在华人经济和当地国经济中扮演着重要角色。因其对市场反应的灵活性和有效的控制性 ,经济繁荣时期 ,它们表现出很强的活力 ;经济低迷时 ,却难以抗拒风险。金融危机中 ,印尼 90 %以上的华人惨淡经营的中小企业被金融危机和随之而来的社会骚乱破坏 ;泰国、菲律宾和马来西亚的国际化程度较低的华人企业也遭到了较为严厉的经济整肃。很多人把华人中小企业低抗风险能力归咎于传统的家族经营管理模式。本文从产权与控制权及企业文化与人力资源关系方面 ,对华人中小企业经营…     

东南亚对等贸易探析

对等贸易在当今仍然占世界贸易的20%~30%的水平。世界对等贸易在不同发展水平的国家表现出不同的特征和规律,在不同的地区表现出不同的特点。东南亚国家作为世界经济的一部分,日益融入经济国际化潮流。东南亚国家经济和贸易发展过程中,积极从事对等贸易,并表现出自己的特征。本文通过分析,探讨东南亚对等贸易的特征和规律,分析其背后的原因及理论依据,并对东南亚今后的对等贸易作出初步的预测。一、东南亚对等贸易的发展特点东南亚从20世纪60年代以来,为发展经济,调整产业结构,将对等贸易作为重要工具加以使用。可以说,东南亚对等贸易的历程…     

Class war-on-terror: counterterrorism,accumulation, crisis

This article discusses US counterterrorism from a class perspective. It sees counterterrorism as a state policy with differential effects on different social classes. In doing so, the article starts to address a lacuna in critical studies of counterterrorism, which tend to be rather structural and formal, thus ignoring the pertinence of counterterrorism to the field of social dynamics. To partly rectify this blind spot by addressing some class implications of counterterrorism, the article examines the effects of counterterrorism policy on capital accumulation and its social conditions. It notes that counterterrorism has different implications along class-lines: for dominant capital, it signifies appropriation of public money and direct participation in political decisions; for everyone else, it means material dispossession and political exclusion. Given that counterterrorism was developed between two crises of neoliberalism, the article distinguishes between economic crises, which tend to benefit capitalism, and political crises, which can be destructive, and suggests that counterterrorism is partly a restructuring of the neoliberal state so that it can manage recurring economic crises, while preventing their evolution into political ones.     

Unpacking Autocracy: Political Regimes and IMF Program Participation

Why do some countries participate in IMF programs while others refuse to do so? We suggest an answer to the question by unpacking one side of the typical democracy–autocracy dichotomy. Specifically, we utilize the growing literature on the varieties of authoritarianism to develop an argument linking the different incentives and constraints that leaders in party-based, personalist, and military regimes face when considering whether to sign agreements with the IMF. Empirically, we demonstrate that distinguishing among autocracies uncovers important variations in the sensitivity of such regimes to the political costs incurred by IMF participation. Party-based autocracies, for instance, respond to both sovereignty costs and the benefits of program participation during severe economic crises. Personalist regimes, however, are not sensitive to the sovereignty costs incurred with IMF participation and thus only participate when doing so provides needed revenue during economic crises. The unique features of military juntas, by contrast, suggests that such regimes are not sensitive to either of these political costs and thus do not respond to economic crises in the same way as their autocratic counterparts.     

应对金融危机:从比较中看俄罗斯经济的转型与发展

1998年和2008年的两次金融危机俄罗斯都没能幸免。两次危机中,虽然诱因不同,但俄罗斯均表现出了股市下挫、银行遭遇流动性危机、卢布贬值等特征。就危机前的宏观经济背景而言,两次危机期间都发生了国际原油价格的大幅下挫,但石油价格下降的原因、幅度及其对俄罗斯造成的影响却有所不同;两次危机都使俄罗斯受负债拖累,但1998年以主权债务为主,而2008年以企业债为主。从根本上来讲,两次危机都暴露出了俄罗斯"依靠油气收益和外国低息贷款来发展经济"的致命弱点,并且显示出近十年的经济转型与发展尚未从根本上改变其经济结构和发展模式。通过两次危机的对比,也再次证明市场经验不足的转型与发展中国家一定要慎重对待金融的开放与自由化。     

Advancing without Attacking: The Strategic Game around the Use of Force

What is the nature of the strategic game that states play during crises? Extensive research examines the leading answer: coercive bargaining. States prevail by signaling resolve, establishing the credibility of their threats, and coercing their adversaries into backing down. However, instead of (or in addition to) traditional coercive bargaining, this article shows that states frequently play out a different game with its own set of rules and tactics. The article explores how states outmaneuver their adversaries: working around their red lines, taking gains by fait accompli and imposing pressure where it is possible to do so without quite crossing the line of unambiguously using force. Based on this premise, the article develops a theoretical framework for understanding strategic interaction during crises, referred to as advancing without attacking, and shows that it best explains the course of the Berlin Blockade Crisis of 1948–49 while also shedding light on other prominent crises.     

Models of Crisis Decision Making and the 1990–91 Gulf War

The 1991 Persian Gulf War is a “most likely” case for several crisis decision-making models. It commanded presidential attention, arose when bureaucrats were fighting over post-Cold War budgets, and evoked the strong organizational cultures of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. We use this case to assess the contexts, decision stages, and issue areas in which alternative crisis models have the most explanatory power. We find that presidents are most powerful in agenda setting, choosing among options, crises, and high-politics issues. Bureaucratic politics diminishes in crises and best explains the behavior of mid-level careerists, the formulation of options, and the shaping of post-war budgets. Most striking, even in crises organizational cultures strongly shape tactical military decisions, choices among weapons systems, and the willingness of officials to risk their careers on behalf of their organizations’ values. Overall, these findings argue for greater attention to the influence of organizational cultures in crises.     

东盟国家外资投资的发展特点与趋势

本文选择了泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾等四个东盟国家,分析它们在进口替代工业化、面向出口工业化、面向出口工业化与第二代进口替代工业化并行发展、金融危机后的两次经济衰退与两次复苏等阶段外资发展特点的变化,并分析导致这些变化的国内与国际经济背景。     

Editor's note

This article examines the argument that the ability of a government to generate “audience costs”—to create a situation, that is, in which it would pay a domestic political price for backing down—plays a key role in determining how international crises run their course. It does this by looking at a dozen great power crises to see how well various aspects of the audience costs argument hold up in the light of the historical evidence. The audience costs mechanism, it turns out, does not play a major role in any of those crises—a conclusion which, the author claims, has certain important methodological implications.     

Interdependence,asymmetric crises,and European defence cooperation

Although international crises are often believed to represent windows of opportunity to strengthen European defence cooperation, recent crises have not seemed to produce a clear convergence of European Union (EU) member states’ security interests. This article seeks to address this puzzle by arguing that European defence cooperation is a response to crises that place European states in a situation of military interdependence. Conversely, asymmetric crises, i.e. crises that affect European states unevenly, encourage those states to maintain their autonomy of action. This theoretical argument is supported by two case studies: the failure of the European Defence Community in the early 1950s and the current difficulties experienced by the EU’s military operations. These two cases illustrate a striking continuity in that, because of (neo)colonial ties in particular, European states are often unevenly affected by international crises, which tends to make defence cooperation less effective.     

Chinese Choices: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Foreign Policy Crises, 1950–1996

This paper uses the Poliheuristic Theory (PH), developed by Mintz, which incorporates both psychological and rational choice components in a synthesis of these previously isolated approaches, to explain decision making in Chinese foreign policy crises. China is an interesting initial case for this project for two reasons. One is its importance as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and rising superpower. The other is China's reputation as a nearly unique "black box"—an especially challenging case—with regard to decision making in foreign policy crises. Taken from the authoritative compilation of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project, the nine cases (with available data) in which China is a crisis actor span the period from 1950 to 1996. A comparative analysis of Chinese decision making in times of crisis is used to test hypotheses derived from the PH. The hypotheses focus on how decisions are anticipated to occur over two stages. Principal expectations are that the non compensatory rule, which places priority on political considerations, will determine viable alternatives at the first stage, while choices more in line with expected value maximization or lexicographic ordering will characterize the second stage.     

New Event Data in Conflict Research

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988.

A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post‐World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918–39), bipolarity (1945–62), and polycentrism (1963–1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles.

The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from ‘necessary and sufficient’ to the “most likely” conditions as the most credible path to theory.