Discussion of 'US Global Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era'

This response to Jin Canrong's paper about US post-Cold War global strategy focuses on the concerns of both authors that the current 'three pillars strategy' is a source of growing tension in PRC‐US relations, leading to Chinese perceptions that ideological factors (US idealism) are playing a bigger role in US policymaking. Despite this, Jannuzi searches for common ground, focusing on issues areas, such as Cambodia, where China has found US idealism to be useful and helpful. He argues also that, as China joins more international treaties and regimes, Chinese and American interests will start to converge, although he concedes that the Kosovo intervention has caused ambivalence in China about unrestrained US 'idealism'.     

The Butterfly Effect and the Making of 'Ping-Pong Diplomacy'

With the aid of the 'butterfly effect' theory, this article investigates the role of ordinary individuals, both Chinese and American, in the formulation, implementation and promotion of 'Ping Pong Diplomacy', which brought about the US‐China rapprochement in the early 1970s. Through examining the twists and turns in the process of 'Ping Pong Diplomacy' making, this study intends to bring one's attention to a number of seemingly less significant historical episodes and their long-term impact on US‐China relations. Like small butterflies whose spontaneous actions can generate unexpected climatic changes, the various individuals in this study, including players and officials of the table-tennis teams, low-ranking diplomats and journalists, played an indispensable part in bringing forth a dramatic transformation in US‐China relations, which in turn altered the Cold War climate in general.     

Sino-US and Cross-Strait Relations under the Post-'11 September' Strategic Settings

Sino-US relations and cross-Strait relations are always interrelated and so is the US policy towards cross-Strait relations. The United States has taken its global strategic and fundamental national interests as points of departure. The Bush Administration has undergone a cycle of being tough towards China and titling towards Taiwan first and then readjusting towards the middle ground. There are many reasons to explain this change and the events of 11 September stand out very prominently. This change once again proves that once the US put strategic consideration first it will take all the necessary steps to ensure that the Taiwan issue should not be a damaging and/or diverting factor. However, there still exist fundamental differences over the Taiwan issue and the Bush Administration's military-to-military relations with and arms sales to Taiwan are matters of great concern.     

China's Evolving Views of the Korean–American Alliance, 1953–2012

This article reconstructs an ideational trajectory in which China's views of the Korean–American alliance evolved during the last 60 years. The article first surveys China's general policy toward alliance and alliance-making. The article then traces the evolutionary path of Chinese views in the following four periods: (1) the Cold War era (1950s–1960s); (2) transformative years (early 1970s–mid-1990s); (3) the period of a strained alliance (late 1990s–late 2000s); and (4) an era of great reversal (late 2000s–present). Principally, the article suggests that China's view of the Korean–American alliance was intense antagonism during the Cold War era, although it was significantly watered down during the transformative years of Sino–South Korean rapprochement. With the normalization of relations between Beijing and Seoul in 1992 and a decade of progressive rule (1998–2007) in South Korea, China's view encompassed some wishful thinking about a gradually diluted alliance. The strong comeback of the conservatives in South Korean politics since 2008, however, shattered such optimism and re-awoke Beijing to some cold realities. China's view of the Korea–American alliance may grow more negative in tandem with US–China relations, irrespective of the official rhetoric of sovereignty regarding alliance and alliance-making.     

China's Rise in Southeast Asia: implications for the United States

During the past few decades, China's economic success has permitted it to pursue a greater role on the international stage. China is recognized both as a regional and aspiring global power. Nowhere is this more evident than within Southeast Asia, where China's more active diplomacy is reflected in growing trade relations, proposals for stronger security ties, and the signing of numerous cooperative agreements on issues as varied as environmental protection, drug trafficking, and public health. As a whole, the region has received China's activism with both enthusiasm and trepidation. China has expended significant effort to assuage the fears of its neighbors by adopting a foreign policy approach that is active, non-threatening, and generally aligned with the economic and security interests of the region. This positive diplomacy has clearly yielded some success, most notably in the trade realm, where China is rapidly emerging as an engine of regional economic growth and integration that may well challenge Japanese and American dominance in the next three to five years. In the security realm, China's diplomacy, while rhetorically appealing to regional actors, has yet to make significant inroads in a regional security structure dominated by the United States and its bilateral security relationships. Most significantly, however, if China is to emerge as a real leader within Southeast Asia, it will also need to assume more of the social and political burden that leadership entails. As China continues to advance itself as a regional leader, its policies on issues such as health, drugs, the environment and human rights will face additional scrutiny not only for their impact on the region but also for the more profound question they raise concerning the potential of China's moral leadership. For the United States, China's greater presence and activism suggest at the very least that it cannot remain complacent about the status quo that has governed political, economic and security relations for the past few decades. Shared leadership within Southeast Asia will likely include China in the near future, with all the potential benefits and challenges that such leadership will entail.     

China and Major Power Relations in East Asia

Tremendous changes have taken place in East Asia in the post-Cold War era, which have a great impact on Chinese foreign policy and its relations with major powers in East Asia. This new power configuration is related to as 'two ups' and 'two downs', which have become apparent since the early 1990s. The 'two ups' concern the rise of the United States and China. The United States' rise to sole superpower status has given Washington a dominant role in all four dimensions of world affairs: political, strategic, economic, and technological/cultural. Meanwhile, China has achieved a spectacular economic performance for the past two decades, sustaining high growth rates, and escaping, so far, the Asian economic crisis of 1997‐98. This expansion has greatly increased China's influence in regional and global affairs. The 'two downs' refer to the downturns of Russia and Japan. This article provides a detailed analysis of China's international environment in the context of the changing dynamics of major-power relations in East Asia. Special attention is paid to the crucial Beijing‐Tokyo‐Washington triangle. The examination focuses upon political, economic, and strategic dimensions.     

The Evolution of China's Nonproliferation Policy since the 1990s: Progress,problems, and prospects

This article offers an overview of China's evolving nonproliferation policy over the past decade. It documents the key developments during this period and identifies both the internal and external factors that have brought about significant change in Chinese policy. It argues that China's growing recognition of the threats posed by WMD proliferation, image concerns, its interest in maintaining stable Sino-US relations, and the US policy initiatives aimed at influencing Chinese behavior are largely accountable for Beijing's gradual acceptance of nonproliferation norms, pledges to adhere to selected multilateral export control guidelines, and the introduction of domestic export control regulations. It suggests that the future direction of China's nonproliferation policy to a large extent will depend on how Beijing and Washington manage their increasing differences over missile defenses and the Taiwan issue.     

The Economics of Power Transitions: Australia between China and the United States

This article examines Sino–Australian economic relations, and their impact on the ties between the United States and Australia. First, drawing on power transition theory, it is argued that in a post-Cold War environment, economic ties play as great a role as strategic relations in determining the orientation of third-party states. Second, it is also argued that Australia's deeper economic and commercial ties with China have usurped a role previously held by the United States. This has forced Australia to pursue a bifurcated foreign policy—one split between its economic and national security needs. Third, these deeper ties with China have generated a degree of alliance drift between Australia and the United States. As a result, there is now a significant debate in Australia over the future of both bilateral relations—even as its space for policy innovation remains limited.     

Chinese Perceptions of US Return to Southeast Asia and the Prospect of China's Peaceful Rise

This article systematically examines the perceptual dimension of US–China–ASEAN relations. It specifically focuses on Chinese perceptions of American intentions in Southeast Asia, Chinese perceptions of the impact on China of the US's return to Southeast Asia, and suggestions of the Chinese scholarly community as to how China should respond to the US's return. Chinese scholars believe that the US returns to Southeast Asia for a variety of reasons and one of the most important is to manage the rise of China, and that the US's return has both positive and negative impacts on China's interests and the negative impact outweighs the positive. Overall, Chinese perceptions of the US return, especially Chinese scholars’ suggested response, indicate that Chinese scholars have internalized the strategy of peaceful rise which would give us added confidence that China is seriously committed to this strategy. If both the US and China stick to their relevant commitments, the rise of China, unlike that of most great powers in the past, would quite likely be peaceful.     

US 'Dual Track' Policy: Arms sales and technology transfer to China mainland and Taiwan

This article analyzes the United States 'dual track' policy on arms sales and technology transfers to the China mainland and Taiwan. Despite its 'one China' policy, the US has continued to sell arms to Taiwan and provide Taiwan with military technology. At the same time, Washington is unwilling to transfer certain technology to the China mainland. The US 'dual track' policy of arms sales and technology transfer to both sides of the Taiwan Strait has maintained a strategic balance by developing closer relations with Beijing while maintaining the security of the Republic of China on Taiwan. Washington's objectives are to enhance Sino‐American relations and to maintain Taiwan's security while not unsettling the generally positive Sino‐American relationship. While this policy has caused tensions in US‐PRC relations, this 'unbalanced balance' has served US interests in maintaining Taiwan's security and has not strained Washington‐Beijing relations to the breaking point.     

国内外学界关于1949-1978年两岸关系的研究综述

台湾问题是中国的内政问题，1949年新中国成立以来，中国共产党与中国国民党围绕台湾问题进行了长达30年的武力对峙。在新中国成立的第一个30年内，对台政策是中国政府内政、外交生活的重要主题之一。数十年来，国内外学者对这一时期的两岸关系、对台政策、中美关系等进行了较为深人、丰富、细致的研究，为改革开放新时期“一国两制、和平统一”政策的出台，奠定了思想、政治和理论基础。     

About an ‘All-Weather’ Relationship: security foundations of Sino-Pakistan relations since 9/11

The traditionally close relationship between China and Pakistan cooled off somewhat with the end of the Cold War, mainly due to China's efforts to improve its relations with India and the disappearance of the Soviet threat. While China has continued to pursue its rapprochement with India after 9/11, developments since 9/11 have reinforced the security foundations of Sino-Pak relations and have consequently reversed the downward trend in the relationship leading to enhanced cooperation in a number of areas. US involvement in Central Asia and deepening Indo-US collaboration have further increased Pakistan's strategic importance for China. Islamabad also occupies a prominent position in Beijing's energy security and its efforts to stabilize Xinjiang.     

From functional integration to structural readjustment: Taipei–Beijing relations and the role of the United States

Regardless of the continued stalemate in the political arena, trade and economic interactions between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have increased steadily. Both aggregate data and the results of survey research have testified to the existence of functional integration of the two societies across the Taiwan Strait. In addition to functional integration, structural readjustments have also been made by political authorities both in Taipei and Beijing so as to facilitate continuity of trade and economic relations. These types of mutual accommodations include: establishing proper ‘unofficial’ agencies on both sides to serve as instruments of practical contacts and negotiation; the more flexible definition of ‘One China’ by Beijing; and the opening of ‘small links’ between Quemoy and Amoy by Taipei. Beijing's refusal to grant Taipei any official diplomatic status and Taipei's reluctance to accept the ‘One China’ principle remain major obstacles to cross‐Taiwan Strait relations. The United States will continue playing a key role in future cross‐Strait relations. Beijing seems to be content, at least temporarily, to maintain cordial relations with the United States in exchange for the latter's adherence to the ‘One China’ principle and rejection of the option of Taiwan independence. Whether Taipei will use enhanced US commitment to Taiwan's security to strike a better deal with Beijing for gradual cross‐Strait integration or to utilize increased American protection to move onto the separatist road will be affected by domestic politics in Taiwan, future US policy toward to the island, and Beijing's response to Taipei's demand for security and international recognition.     

The Missing Link in Sino–Latin American Relations

The growing economic presence of China around the world is a widely recognized reality. China's expanding economic relations with other developing countries have generated both positive and negative reactions. Many believe that the increasing economic ties between China and these countries will enhance China's political influence and encourage political cooperation between China and other countries in the Global South. How strong is the economic–political link? This article examines this question in the context of Sino–Latin American relations in recent years. It finds that thus far China's expanding economic relations with the region have not had a significant spillover effect into the political realm. The article provides preliminary explanations of the missing link between the economic and the political. It calls for more nuanced ways to apply familiar international relations paradigms to understanding the implications of the rise of China.     

China Perceives America: Perspectives of international relations experts

This article seeks to examine Chinese analysts' perceptions of America, particularly their views on US China policy. It intends to explore how that issue has evolved over time, what progress has been made, what factors have shaped it, what principal impediments have existed, and what the prospects are for future management. Focusing on the period from the mid-1990s to the present, the study finds that there remains a perceptual gap in US-China relations today, though Chinese understanding of America continues to improve. Specifically, there seems to be a lessened diversity of opinions and an emerging consensus on the hegemonic nature of US foreign policy, particularly its intention of containing a rising China--though its dual strategy of containment and engagement continues to exist. More importantly, many Chinese analysts remain highly critical and negative. Thus, American external behavior worldwide would always be viewed with a great deal of suspicion.     

The Political Economy of Compassion: China's ‘charity supermarket’ saga

With a focus on Tianjin, this article examines the recent widespread establishment of ‘charity supermarkets’ in China's cities. Inspired by the example of certain ‘thrift shops’ in the US, charity supermarkets were set up for the purpose of assisting the urban poor. Several contrasting contemporary discourses within China concerning poverty, charity, business, and the proper roles of the market, state, and community in the delivery of social welfare are explored. The differing perspectives revealed throw an interesting light on why China's charity supermarkets have not, so far, developed as anticipated. This interesting urban social experiment is analyzed as a case study in the potential to achieve effective ‘mutual empowerment’ of state and society in the contemporary Chinese context.     

Asymmetry theory and China's concept of multipolarity

Since 1986 the concept of multipolarity has played a key role in China's analysis of the world order, evolving from a critique of bipolarity in the late Cold War period into a critique of American unipolarity. Although multipolarity is empirically correct in its questioning of the superpower's capacity for domination and it is ethically attractive in its insistence on international cooperation, it does not address the real problems created by the disparity of power in international affairs. Asymmetry theory is a new paradigm that addresses the effects of national disparities on international relations. It argues that asymmetry inevitably creates differences in risk perception, attention and interactive behavior between states, and that it can lead to a vicious circle of systemic misperception. Despite such tensions, however, the international order is quite stable, and even asymmetric relations can rarely be forced by the stronger side. Asymmetry confirms multipolarity's critique of unipolarity's exaggerated claim to absolute power, and suggests a theory of international leadership based on negotiated relationships that avoid the systemic misperceptions that asymmetry encourages.     

从蒲安臣和《蒲安臣条约》看晚清中美关系

蒲安臣是中国历史上第一位外交使节,由于他本身是美国人这一特殊身份使得他在中美关系史上具有重要地位。在他主导下签订的《蒲安臣条约》是近代中国第一个以平等身份签订的条约。从蒲安臣的经历以及《蒲安臣条约》看出：晚清美国的对华政策往往是理想主义与现实主义交融的产物,而清政府则希望利用美国相对于其他列强对中国的善意达到“以夷制夷”的目的。《蒲安臣条约》在劳工、留学等方面对日后的中美关系产生了重要影响。     

An Emerging China and Diasporic Chinese: historicity,state, and international relations

The past decade has seen a growing body of literature on the (re)emergence of China and its implications for the new international order, and this scholarship is accompanied by the attempts from both within and outside of China to establish Chinese schools of international relations (IR). These admirable efforts, however, have been largely state-centric and concerned mainly with the balance of power, with little attention being directed to the diaspora's role in the evolution of China's international relationship and their potential contribution to bridging China studies and international relations theorization. Drawing upon theoretical insights from both IR and diaspora studies and employing a wide range of primary data including archives and personal interviews, this essay examines the diaspora's role (or the lack of it) in China's diplomacy since 1949 and attempts to conceptualize the Chinese experience in an historical and comparative perspective. I argue that historicity and state have played a significant part in shaping the interactions between the diaspora and diplomacy. The Chinese state's resilient capacity in domesticating (potential) diplomatic problems with respect to the diaspora and transforming them into new policy initiatives through facilitating diasporic participation in China's socio-economic and political processes has opened up new venues for the Chinese overseas to be involved in China's diplomacy. This article concludes by considering three different routes in engaging the diaspora with diplomacy at a time of China rising and by calling for strategic integration of diaspora into the emerging discourses on ‘IR theories with Chinese characteristics’.     

A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific

Exploring the causes of the China–US strategic rivalry and its possible mitigation, this article argues that President Xi's new model of big power relations represents a challenge to the US primacy in the Asia–Pacific based on China's rising power and deeply rooted suspicion of the US containment. But neither the US nor China can be the single dominant power in the region. The new model can be built only if China and the US demonstrate a strategic restraint and maintain a delicate balance of power to prevent their rivalry from boiling over into a new Cold War.