New Presidents Adjust Old Policies: US-Taiwan Relations under Chen and Bush

Despite the presence of new presidents in Taiwan and the US, the basic dynamics of the US-China-Taiwan triangle and the dilemmas faced by leaders on all three sides have remained largely intact. This paper looks at how Chen Shui-bian and George W. Bush have tried to change the policies and practices they inherited from their predecessors. Chen has shown himself to be a less provocative president, and Bush has adopted more supportive and sympathetic policies toward Taiwan. Despite their personal inclinations, they have been able to make only marginal changes in their relations with the other, and with China. Domestic political conflicts and competing strategic interests prevent a fundamental change in relations between the US, China, and Taiwan.     

The Taiwan Problem in the Second George W. Bush Administration—US officials' views and their implications for US policy

The behavior of Taiwan leaders and people in 2003–2004 raised the salience of Taiwan's assertive movement toward permanent independence for US policy makers. No longer did US officials responsible for assessing cross-Strait relations and their implications for US policy take it for granted that such assertiveness and moves toward independence would be held in check by the mainstream opinion in Taiwan, previously but no longer viewed as pragmatic by US decision makers. In response to the new situation, US policy makers intervened in Taiwan politics, trying to channel Taiwan assertiveness along lines less likely to lead to war with China. US interventions were widely seen to have had a moderating effect on the Taiwan elite and public opinion in the lead-up to the December 2004 legislative election that resulted in a significant setback for President Chen Shui-bian's push toward greater independence. Taiwan's political opposition leaders pursued high-level contacts with China. Chinese leaders warmly welcomed the Taiwan opposition leaders who renounced Taiwan independence. However, Taiwan politics remained sharply divided over cross-Strait issues, with President Chen unwilling to renounce Taiwan independence or accept a version of the so-called one China principle seen by China as a prerequisite for improved relations with the Taiwan government. President Bush and other US officials encouraged both governments to show greater flexibility in order to promote dialogue that would reduce misunderstanding and ease tensions. The uncertain outlook for cross-Strait relations included the possibility of talks, improved relations, and agreements on managing cross-Strait tensions between the Taiwan and Chinese governments. On the other hand, the impasse between China and Taiwan could deepen. The Bush administration appeared to have settled on a policy that endeavored to deter China from using force against Taiwan and deter Taiwan from taking provocative steps toward independence. The main alternatives to this approach seemed less acceptable to US policy makers under prevailing conditions, suggesting that US policy is likely to persist with a dual deterrence policy for the rest of President Bush's term in office.     

Explaining Change and Stability in Cross-Strait Relations: a punctuated equilibrium model

Relations across the Taiwan Strait have experienced several cycles over the last 60 years. Tension and crisis seem to come and go, followed by periods of peace and stability. What explains the cyclical pattern of change and stability? How can we explain the sources of change and stability in the relationship? This article examines the last 60 years of cross-Strait relations in light of an interpretative framework of ‘punctuated equilibrium’. Cross-Strait relations are complex, consisting of actors at the domestic, cross-Strait, and international levels. With a high degree of economic interaction, the cross-Strait relationship can be characterized as economic integration cum political impasse. This article analyzes the cyclical changes through three causal factors: (a) the role of issue cycles in cross-Strait relations; (b) the impulsive drivers for change; and (c) the structural constraints dampening change.     

Taiwan's Expansion of International Space: opportunities and challenges

While much is to be celebrated since Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration in 2008, cross-Strait relations are not without challenges. One such crucial test is Ma's call for Chinese leaders to stop isolating Taipei in the world community and give Taiwan adequate ‘international space’. Because the issue strikes at the heart of the fundamental differences between Taipei's and Beijing's positions regarding the island's sovereignty, it needs to be handled carefully by both governments for better cross-Strait relations. This study analyzes the approaches adopted by both Beijing and Taipei regarding Taiwan's status in the international community. Utilizing discussion with Chinese scholars and government officials and the analysis of several waves of survey data conducted in Taiwan, it argues that Beijing's flexibility in its application of the ‘one China’ principle and the Ma administration's practicality in making its requests are critical to the realization of Taipei's demand for international space and hence cross-Strait stability.     

Beyond Power Politics: institution-building and Mainland China's Taiwan policy transition

Facing the ever-growing interdependence across the Taiwan Strait, Mainland China's strategy towards Taiwan is undergoing a profound change, that is, transcending the staunch realpolitik mentality and turning to an institutional arrangement in policy making. Especially since President Hu Jintao took up his position, the Mainland has endeavored to improve cross-Strait relations through the institutionalization of a series of sensitive issues, such as the proposals and signatures of some long-term accords aiming to advocate economic cooperation, promote social exchanges, weaken political opposition and foster mutual trust. By taking the Mainland's national development strategy shift, Taiwan's domestic reality and ‘institution deficit’ in cross-Strait relations into consideration, this paper analyzes the reasons, efforts and features of the Mainland's recent institutional-orientated policy transition.     

Theorizing on Relations across the Taiwan Strait: Nine contending approaches

Cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China are of great importance to the development of China and peace in East Asia. However, this subject has not been sufficiently dealt with in a theoretical manner. This paper takes stock of the analytical approaches in the field in an effort to present to the academic world the existing intellectual instruments that interested researchers can take advantage of in cross-Strait studies. Nine approaches are identified. They are: the divided-nation model, integration theory, the power asymmetry model, the vote-maximizing model, the developmental state paradigm, strategic triangle theory, systems theory, political psychology theory, and the cognitive approach. The intellectual roots of these approaches are traced and their applicability to cross-Strait relations examined. Their strengths and weaknesses are also compared. Finally, a synthetic analytical framework is proposed. It is believed that a literature review of this kind is a prerequisite to a theoretical understanding of the cross-Strait relations.     

Ambiguity,Economic Interdependence,and the US Strategic Dilemma in the Taiwan Strait

As tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen in recent years, some have argued that the US policy of strategic ambiguity—under which Washington leaves unclear if and how it would intervene in a cross-Strait conflict—has outlived its usefulness because ambiguity may foster dangerous misperceptions about US intentions and hence contribute to future crises. In this essay I critically examine strategic ambiguity, and conclude that ambiguity remains the best policy available to Washington given current US goals in the Taiwan Strait. I argue that ambiguity remains essential both to deterring a Chinese attack and to restraining Taiwanese moves toward independence, but that it nonetheless carries with it inherent risks of conflict. I further argue, however, that these additional risks triggered by ambiguity per se are likely small, and hence are overshadowed by the strategic obstacles faced by the alternatives to an ambiguous policy. Moreover, I show that growing economic interdependence between Mainland China and Taiwan further reduces the risk that ambiguity itself would be a contributing factor to war in the Taiwan Strait. As such, the relative attractiveness of ambiguity has likely increased, rather than decreased as argued by its critics, over the past decade.     

对美国“弃台论”相关争论的观察及美国对台政策走向分析

2008年马英九上台以来,两岸关系步入和平发展时期.美国政府官员和政策专家对在此时期美国对台政策是否应当调整发表了不同的看法,其中“弃台论”声音的出现,引起了美国官方和学界的高度关注和激烈争论.“弃台论”在美国国内产生了重要的影响,但从现实来看,“弃台论”尚未进入决策层面.当前美国对台政策并未发生结构性变化,美国并没有放弃对台湾的影响力.未来美国对台政策呈现出总体框架维持不变、局部修正的态势.     

Securing Economic Relations Across the Taiwan Straits: New challenges and opportunities

Cross-Taiwan Straits economic interaction is a political as well as an economic issue. General trends of economic interdependence and globalization that are weakening the role of the nation state should promote a focus of shared 'civilian governance' between Taiwan and mainland China. WTO entry will provide opportunities as well as challenges for cross-Strait economic relations. In anticipation of this dynamic, the new government in Taiwan is attempting to design a new national security web to guarantee Taiwan's 'economic security' in coping with Taiwan's increasing economic dependence on mainland China. As one key agent of globalization, economic cooperation in the urban areas on both sides of the Taiwan Strait may potentially improve relations between Taiwan and mainland China. As decentralization and privatization on mainland China proceed, major cities have developed closer interaction and systems of accountability with the civil society. From a prudent perspective, developing functional cooperation between Taiwan and mainland China at the urban level could be a first substantial step to confidence building between these two economies.     

Beijing’s New Strategies toward a Changing Taiwan

Beijing’s new strategies toward Taiwan are informed by neo-functionalism derived from European experiences, assuming that economic integration will eventually lead to political accommodation and integration. Despite the surprising Sunflower Movement and the fiasco of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the 2014 local elections, Beijing will try its best to maintain the momentum of peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Facing a brand new Taiwan that seems an oddity to the mainland, however, Beijing has adapted to ‘the new normal’ with a slower pace, refocusing on the economic and cultural issues. Whether or to what degree Beijing will change its asymmetric engagements with the two main parties on the island, however, is contingent upon whether the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) can reach a balance of power domestically and whether their policies toward the mainland converge rather than diverge. At any rate, Beijing is likely to pay more attention to ordinary people’s feelings about cross-Strait economic and cultural exchanges and consider quality of cross-Strait exchange as more important than quantity of activities.     

美国强势推动TPP及对两岸关系的影响

2008年以来,作为“再平衡”战略的重要部署,美国高调主导并强势推动TPP,对两岸关系产生了重要影响.TPP成为美国对两岸关系施加影响的新切入点,对两岸的制度性经济合作造成直接冲击,也可能成为“台独”势力操弄影响岛内政治认同的新手段,给两岸务实解决台湾“国际空间”问题增添变数.大陆方面应该做好具有前瞻性的理论准备、政策研究和行动方案,为两岸关系和平发展以及中国的和平崛起“保驾护航”.     

US 'Dual Track' Policy: Arms sales and technology transfer to China mainland and Taiwan

This article analyzes the United States 'dual track' policy on arms sales and technology transfers to the China mainland and Taiwan. Despite its 'one China' policy, the US has continued to sell arms to Taiwan and provide Taiwan with military technology. At the same time, Washington is unwilling to transfer certain technology to the China mainland. The US 'dual track' policy of arms sales and technology transfer to both sides of the Taiwan Strait has maintained a strategic balance by developing closer relations with Beijing while maintaining the security of the Republic of China on Taiwan. Washington's objectives are to enhance Sino‐American relations and to maintain Taiwan's security while not unsettling the generally positive Sino‐American relationship. While this policy has caused tensions in US‐PRC relations, this 'unbalanced balance' has served US interests in maintaining Taiwan's security and has not strained Washington‐Beijing relations to the breaking point.     

论新时代两岸关系学术话语体系的构建与创新——以厦门大学师生的台湾研究成果为例

面对日益复杂严峻的台海局势,我们亟须以习近平总书记对台重要论述为指导,构建和创新“以我为主、对我有利、为我所用”的新时代两岸关系学术话语体系。必须思考如何打破西方的“话语垄断”和“话语霸权”,揭露台湾当局的“话语扭曲”和“话语抹黑”,体现新时代的“中国特色、中国风格、中国气派”。新时代两岸关系学术话语体系应该具有时代性、政策性、理论性、开放性、包容性等特点,进行包括追求国家统一正当性、遏制“台独”分裂必要性、延续和平发展重要性、深化融合发展必然性、反对外部干涉合理性等内容的话语构建。新时代两岸关系话语体系建设路径,至少包括两岸关系的理论体系、学科体系和传播体系三个子系统的建设。厦门大学师生的台湾研究成果为两岸关系学术话语体系建设作出了积极努力,本文以他们的部分研究成果为例加以阐述,以纪念厦门大学百年校庆。     

马英九上台后美国对台政策调整的背景分析

马英九上台执政后，美国对台政策的着力点由反对单方面改变台海现状转向正面评价台湾当局调整大陆政策和两岸关系的改善。美国的上述调整虽然有其现实的国家利益需求，但决策环境的变化也在对美国传统的对台思维和战略产生深刻的影响。未来四年，美国会继续发展美台关系，保持对台海局势的影响力，但随着两岸对话的不断深入，美国对台海局势的关注度可能会有所降低，台湾问题对中美关系的负面影响也可能趋于弱化。     

Continuity and change: the administration of George W. Bush and US policy toward Taiwan

This paper examines recent modifications in American policy toward the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan). It contends that, while the George W. Bush Administration may have carried out a significant readjustment of US policy, available evidence suggests that it will not endorse any major upgrades in ties with Taipei during the foreseeable future. Like previous administrations, the Bush Administration now recognizes the value of engaging the People's Republic of China (PRC). This development holds important implications for the future trajectory of America's relations with Taiwan and the PRC and for peace and stability in the Western Pacific.     

海峡两岸省域电子信息产业竞争力评价及分析

近年来,海峡两岸电子信息产业已由最初的互补转为互补与竞争共存,且省域间产业竞争力差距较大。本文根据新贸易竞争优势理论,通过构建两岸省域电子信息产业竞争力评价体系,运用因子分析法对2008—2012年间台湾与大陆31个省、区、市（统称＂省域＂）的电子信息产业竞争力进行测算和分析,结果表明：在时间维度,台湾与大陆电子信息产业竞争力强省的差距在逐渐缩小,与电子信息产业竞争力水平低下省份的差距在逐渐扩大;在地域分布上,两岸电子信息产业竞争力呈现台湾地区向大陆东部沿海地区再向中西部内陆地区递减规律;效益因子、技术投入因子对竞争力影响最大,社会环境因子和经济环境因子次之。针对两岸省域竞争力得分因子差异,本文提出促进两岸电子信息产业合作的建议：大陆高水平区域可利用巨大市场优势与台湾共建技术标准,研发设计符合大陆市场的产品;大陆中高水平区域依托良好的基础设施条件和经济基础可与台湾在电子信息产业高技术、高智力密集度的领域深入合作;大陆中低水平区域凭借劳动力和土地成本优势拓宽与台湾合作区域以承接东部沿海的生产基地;大陆低水平区域应发挥资源优势完善基础设施吸引台商投资。     

台湾当局亚太经济战略的演变、动因及影响——基于“一个中国”框架视阈的分析

自上世纪90年代以来,台湾当局的亚太经济战略均以减缓两岸经贸关系发展、挑战＂一个中国＂框架为主轴。马英九上台后,以＂黄金十年＂愿景为蓝图,在＂壮大台湾、连接亚太、布局全球＂的总战略下＂通过大陆走向世界＂,以＂战略平衡＂、＂同步多轨＂、＂官民结合＂等方式推动对外签订双边经济合作协议（ECA）及加入TPP、RCEP等多边经济合作机制。这一战略虽给大陆维护＂一个中国＂框架带来新课题,但总体上保持两岸政经良性互动,稳住两岸关系和平发展大局,并对未来两岸关系发展产生深远影响。     

台湾研究交叉学科建设的现状与前景--从“台湾学”的理论建构谈起

台湾问题与两岸关系的学术研究,经过两岸学术界几十年的努力,在学科建设方面已经打下坚实的基础,组建台湾研究交叉学科——“台湾学”的条件趋于成熟。厦门大学台湾研究院在这一领域的知识理论体系建构和组织体系建制方面做出许多有益的尝试,提出了“厦大方案”。希望两岸学术界继续努力,为台湾研究交叉学科建设做出新的贡献。     

关于中日间台湾地位问题的“1972年承诺”与中美日“三角关系”

本文聚焦中日间关于台湾问题的“1972年承诺”,对中日两国围绕台湾问题存在分歧的症结及解决前景进行了分析,认为日本一直不肯直接承认中国对台湾的主权,并经常在这个问题上制造摩擦（如邀请台湾政治敏感人物访日）,除了因为他们有些人无意认真遵守《开罗宣言》的规定之外,还因为他们不得不受美国台湾政策的影响以及他们固有的对台湾的战略思考所致。中日间关于台湾地位问题的“1972年承诺”就是鉴于日方这种法律、政治和战略考量,在中美日三国合作的背景下妥协的产物。笔者认为,随着中美日“三角关系”的趋于形成和中日“战略互惠关系”的建立,必将为中日间关于台湾问题的合理解决创造条件。     

美国民众对军售台湾支持率的影响因素研究——基于美国人对华态度实证调研

美国对外政策的制定通常需要有民意基础,然而现有研究鲜有从美国民众的视角探究美国对台军售。本文基于美国人对华态度实证调研的数据,利用单因子试验法测试美国民众在“中美关系”和“对台军售”间的权衡,并采用logistic模型来检查影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。结果表明即使对台军售会严重恶化或危害中美关系,58％的美国民众依然支持美国对台军售。政治倾向（温和派）、媒体和信息渠道（收听广播和浏览网络频率）、个人因素（性别、年龄）等是影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。终止美国对台军售,我国一方面需要有更加强有力的反制措施,另一方面可以尝试通过长期规划的网络传播手段来扭转美国民众对对台军售的支持。