Invisible Linkages: A Regional Perspective of East Asian Political Economy

This article studies East Asian political economy from a regional perspective. The Asian financial crisis showed that East Asian economies are highly regionalized. However, the linkages among Asian economies, mostly informal in nature, often appear "invisible" to many in the West, who focus more on the states and formal institutions. Drawing on a broad set of literature mostly in Asian languages, this paper provides a systematic study of informal integration in East Asia, which consists of not only regional production networks, but also ethnic Chinese business networks and subregional economic zones. It finds that the three informal mechanisms have formed an interrelated pattern of regional integration in East Asia. The nature of the economic networks is very useful in explaining the Asian crisis and the different performances of East Asian economies in the crisis. The crisis has also resulted in profound changes in informal integration. While the Japanese–led production networks have been greatly weakened, the Chinese Economic Area is rising, driven by the ethnic Chinese business networks and subregional economic zones. As a result, the Japan–dominated "flying geese pattern" has been broken. The connections between Greater China and the United States have also been enhanced and are out–competing the Japanese production networks. Many of the new developments have been ignored in the West but they are key factors that will shape the future of Asian and World political economy.     

论东亚经济增长模式的特征

东亚金融危机之后,关于东亚经济增长模式纷争不断。东亚宏观经济模式的特征可以概括成高储蓄率、高投资率、高出口比重和大政府,东亚微观经济模式的特征可以概括成企业的家族式管理、企业的规模小而淘汰率高、企业的创新能力低而模仿能力高、企业的初创阶段发展速度快。本文认为,东亚金融危机与东亚经济增长模式不存在内在的必然联系。     

A Postscript to the Asian Financial Crisis: The Fragile International Economic Order

This article situates the East Asian financial/economic crisis among other key economic events of the post-Cold-War world, assessing its significance alongside that of America's extraordinary economic growth in the 1990s and the collapse of the 1999 World Trade Organization meeting in Seattle. According to the author, the financial crisis could not have been avoided merely by removing national governments and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund from markets. Such faith in unregulated markets is based on the incorrect assumption that investors are rational, as well as on the anomalous experience of the United States in the 1990s. While the US economy did improve markedly over the last decade, this growth was not due to unfettered capitalism, but rather to idiosyncratic aspects of the economy, such as a high borrowing rate. Gilpin points out that the end of this economic growth, alongside the protectionist impulses exhibited at the Seattle meeting, has contributed to a move away from international trade liberalization. The American free-market model, tarnished by corporate corruption, he argues, is no longer the goal of developing economies concerned about the lack of market controls. The result, he fears, is a growing fragility in the stability and governance of the global economy.     

In search of proximate enemies

Abstract: The post-Cold War context has accompanied the ascent of East Asian economies and consumer markets, as exemplified by China, while Japan's experience has been marked by the struggle with an economic slump after the collapse of the so-called bubble economy. Japan has been actively promoting ‘cool Japan’ instead of the economy, but even more notable is the rise of the Korean Wave. Joined together with political contestation over historical issues, anti-China/Korea sentiments have been growing, as is the accompanying hate-speech movement against resident Koreans in new-millennium Japan. Growing East Asian rivalry along with the relative decline of Japan, the widely shared sense of socio-economic predicament and the upsurge of digital media communications have been conjoined to generate the hunt for proximate enemies – China, Korea, and resident Koreans in Japan – as the object of expressions of hate. How to develop better uses of digital media towards the cultivation of dialogic cultural citizenship is an imperative issue.     

Lessons from the Asian Economic Crisis: A View from South Korea

Ha and Kim present a new reading of the East Asian crisis, focusing particularly on South Korea's experience. They argue that previous studies have ignored the political environment that paved the way for such an event. Neoliberal economists, according to the authors, were so enamoured with the example of the 'Asian tigers' and the ideal of unregulated markets that they were blind to the many warnings of an ensuing disaster. Economic systems can thus no longer rest on such a free-market capitalist ideal where no one controls the global economy, but must instead have a secure political base. As the financial crisis has shown, such international anarchy must be checked by a new set of international institutions. While the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organisation did attempt to handle the crisis, it, along with Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), proved unable to do so. East Asia's leaders and theorists have been presented with the challenge of reforming this region's institutions and political orders in order to avoid another crisis, complete with all its social and political ramifications.     

全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的影响及危机应对

美国金融危机演变为全球性经济衰退之后，对东南亚的虚拟与实体经济造成了沉重的打击。随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强和全球经济形势的恶化，东南亚经济在2009年面对更为严峻的挑战与考验。东南亚各国在采取各种积极灵活的应对举措的同时，大力推进东盟区域内部的经济整合，加大泛区域甚至跨区域的经济合作，并积极争取外援，以最大限度地减少全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的冲击。     

In the Wake of the East Asian Economic Crisis: Toward an Interdependent but Non-convergent Global System

Donald C. Hellmann here studies the political, societal and cultural forces that created the backdrop for the East Asian financial crisis. He presents three myths about the disaster, emphasizing that this event took place in the context of governmental and economic structures embedded in society and thus not easily modified. These myths include the idea that this region will not become the largest economic region in the next 25 years, that East Asian economies cannot continue to grow without Western-led structural change and that the existing economic and security multilateral institutions require only minor reform to face this new international order. He then goes on to argue that no international institution or world power has filled the new statesmanship vacuum of the post-Cold-War interregnum. A new global system will be necessary to face the challenges of this new balance of power.     

东亚经济复苏前景展望

１９９９年以来,遭受亚洲金融危机影响的东亚国家出现经济复苏迹象,如汇率基本稳定,股票市场活跃,出口大幅度增长,外汇储备增加。东亚经济真的复苏了吗？我们认为;东亚经济复苏的进程将受到外部经济环境变化和内部经济调整状况的影响,存在许多不确定性的因素。断言东亚经济已经进入全面复苏的阶段为时尚早,同时,东亚国家再次陷入危机的可能性也不大。稳步推进金融体制改革、加快经济结构调整和发展模式调整步伐,是东亚国家走向全面复苏的基础,也是２１世纪东亚国家创造新一轮经济发展空间的关键。     

Regional and multi-level governance: East Asian leadership after the global financial crisis

Although the economies of East Asia emerged from the global financial crisis of 2008 in comparatively strong positions, they remain structurally embedded within global markets. The degree of regional integration that has occurred within East Asia is thus predicated on the on-going interdependence with the economies of Europe and North America. Moves to advance East Asian regional cooperation in the wake of the crisis reflect this global interdependence, as well as intra-regional differences in interests and a lack of strong leadership within the region. Modest cooperation on an East Asian basis has continued since 2008 but the region is very far from realising a substantive regional governance model on economic and financial issues and does not appear to be pursuing a distinctive governance agenda. This article examines recent developments in East Asian regional cooperation, with a view to assessing the significance of current achievements and explaining the mixed and sometimes contradictory nature of initiatives for regional governance in East Asia.     

宏观经济相互依存与东亚货币合作可行性

东亚地区存在两个层面的宏观经济相互依存。第一个层面是东亚与美国经济的相互依存,第二个层面是东亚区域内部经济的相互依存。全球性金融危机充分体现了东亚和美国之间经济相互依存的不对称性,而这种不对称性是不能够长期持续的,全球性金融危机促使东亚加强区域、国际的经济协调,验证了相互依存理论的合理性。相互依存的东亚需要通过政策的协调解决宏观经济政策的外部性和溢出效应问题,因而东亚地区进行货币合作的可行性较高。     

东亚经济复兴与东亚经济发展模式

东亚模式曾经受到广泛赞扬,成为众多落后国家争相效仿的楷模.经历了1997年金融危机洗礼,东亚模式随着经济发展不断完善、不断更新.这次面临全球金融危机,东亚经济发展模式在金融风暴中展示出的一些优势,是抵御冲击的有效措施.因此,有必要再辨东亚经济发展模式的新特征,探讨东亚生产网络的形成与区域经济的构建以及目前面临的能源和通货膨胀新挑战,为东亚乃至世界经济的发展探索新途径.     

TNCs: Aid agents for the new millennium?

Until very recently private capital flows to developing countries have been growing rapidly. In the wake of the 1997 East Asian financial crisis, foreign direct investment has been identified as a vital ingredient to restore and invigorate the economies in the Asian region and beyond. In an attempt to attract overseas capital and to stimulate economic development, countries such as the Philippines have stepped up the adoption of policies that allow for greater access by foreign investors. Increasingly, it appears that foreign capital, provided through transnational corporations, is set to replace official aid and to promote economic development first and foremost, with 'trickle-down' social benefits to follow. This study examines the role of one transnational corporation called the Alliance, in the promised development of Bohol in the Philippines, as a by-product of a water treatment and supply proposal linking the island provinces of Bohol and Cebu. The findings suggest that economic objectives tend to take priority over social development. The Alliance seemed to expound its economic and technical ability, with less effort given to involving and consulting with affected communities. This resulted in residents being disenfranchised from the development process, and gave rise to a feeling of mistrust and resentment.     

后危机时代新兴市场国家的发展前景——以中东欧国家为研究视角

自20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家迈上了经济转轨之路,纷纷从传统的计划经济向市场经济转变,逐步走上了加速发展的道路.然而,由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机使中东欧国家普遍受到冲击.中东欧国家之所以在劫难逃,主要是由于与世界经济的联系日益密切.可以说,导致这些国家遭受厄运的罪魁祸首就是"高外资、高举债"的发展模式.因此,...     

东盟经济增长的波动及其趋势

近年来,东盟国家经济增长出现了急剧的波动。究其原因,主要是在经济全球化下受到主要发达国家经济周期波动的冲击和金融危机后国内经济转型与结构调整的影响。从东盟经济增长趋势看,各国经济增长速度将放缓而波动有所加大。     

Japanese political economy revisited: diverse corporate change,institutional transformation,and Abenomics

Abstract

This introductory article to the special issue on “Japanese Political Economy Revisited: Diverse Corporate Change, Institutional Transformation, and Abenomics” starts with a short summaryof the changing perceptions of Japan's political economy from its meteoric rise as worldwide leading model in the 1970s and 1980s to its demotiontoa problem and reform case since the later 1990s. Based on this overview, it identifies some striking issue and open questions in this conventional view of Japan's political economy as problem and the high expectations on Abenomics as Japan's current economic reform programme. Then we discuss the articles of the special issue and their new contributionsto a better understanding of the developments at the corporate level as well as institutional change and economic reforms at the macro level in the last two decades. Finally, this introductory article ends with a short outlineof a new research programme and four central research questions about the Japanese political economy.     

近期美元汇率走势及其对东亚经济的影响

随着国际金融危机的持续深化，近期国际市场上不管是美元汇率，还是原油、黄金和有色金属等大宗商品期货价格，都在频繁波动，这种金融市场的剧烈震荡，意味着美元本位的国际货币体系正在经受严峻的考验，世界经济形势不容乐观。     

‘Growth oriented’ corporate governance reform – can it solve Japan's performance puzzle?

Abstract

Recent governance reforms in Japan aim at promoting ‘the establishment of an environment that supports appropriate risk-taking by the senior management.’ The article evaluates the reforms on the basis of two questions: do the reforms tackle the right issues? And will they be effective? The Japanese economy faces indeed a performance puzzle. Despite Japan's strong efforts in the field of research and development, its excellent work force and abundant financial capital, the economy is performing poorly in terms of productivity. The performance puzzle seems to be closely related to the way large Japanese companies are governed, namely by boards filled with internally promoted lifetime employees. However, the correlation between board composition and performance is spurious. Both are influenced by a third factor, which manifests itself in the predominance of in-house careers. In-house careers determine the composition of boards and have, over the last twenty years, had a negative impact on economic performance. The governance reforms do not address the root of Japan's performance puzzle. They may nevertheless provide an important stimulus for redesigning the way Japanese corporations recruit, train and promote future leaders.     

东亚与美国经贸关系演变与新的发展出路

本文从贸易地位、出口商品结构、贸易结合度梳理了东亚与美国经贸关系的演变。结果显示,源于国际分工模式的改变,中美经贸关系逐年紧密,东亚其余经济体与美国经贸紧密度逐年下降,而对东亚区域内部的依赖远超过对美国的依赖。金融危机带来的全球经济格局和结构的重大调整使东亚出口急剧萎缩,而后危机时期发达国家"无就业复苏"和重振制造业的动向,更使东亚须通过内部经济循环寻求新的发展出路。     

European‐Atlantic Security Institutions: Current state and future prospects

Since the turn of the millennium, scholars and pundits have been musing over the decline of the West. The disappointing US military invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq, together with the subprime mortgage crisis, seem to be evidence of an abrupt end to America's ‘unipolar’ moment. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis has amplified Europe's long-term structural economic problems and laid bare the fragile institutional foundation on which the Economic and Monetary Union was built. At the same time, the BRICs and other emerging economies have been growing at unprecedented rates. Those same analysts see a ‘decoupling’ in the world economy: the developing economies pulling the world out of recession, while the advanced industrial economies are unable to solve their domestic difficulties. So to them, the events of the past five years signify the beginning of the end of Western influence, eventually leading to a more complete rebalancing of the world economy's current ‘Western’ system of governance. This article argues instead that the West still has a significant edge when it comes to most critical factors that determine long-term economic growth potential, including technology, innovative capacity, research and development, investment climate and education. Furthermore, the transatlantic economy is less vulnerable than the rest of the world to outside economic shocks and might eventually prove more capable of reform than many expect. The current malaise in the transatlantic community might therefore prove once again to be more cyclical than structural. Relying on linear projections, many are ‘crying wolf’ again, too loud and too soon.     

The security policy of the greens in Italy

This article provides an overview of the current state of financial regionalism in East Asia and discusses why and how the East Asian countries should go forward in terms of financial and monetary regionalism. It highlights intra-regional exchange rate stability as an important regional public good and makes the case for greater exchange rate cooperation. To this end, East Asian countries should gradually reduce their exposure to the US dollar and move towards currency basket regimes which would sustain relative intra-regional exchange rate stability while allowing for sufficient flexibility to accommodate idiosyncratic shocks. Against the backdrop of the global and European financial crisis, the article also urges a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of international – and regional – financial integration and calls for a further strengthening of East Asia's regional financial architecture.