Sorting out the Conceptual Muddle: The Role of the Japanese Economy in the Asian Financial Crisis

Karel van Wolferen argues that, since Japan's political economy was the main factor in creating the circumstances that led up to the East Asian financial crisis, studies must focus on it to understand this event. The Japanese economy, which is here described as a war economy operating in peacetime, provided the model for East Asia's 'tiger economies' that imitated the Japanese government in its targeting of sectors for investment, especially the construction industry in the 1980s. These other East Asian economies proved more vulnerable to crisis than the Japanese economy because they were more open to foreign investment and did not have Japan's closely knit economic and financial networks and institutions. After presenting this preface to the crisis, van Wolferen then criticizes the current East Asian economic situation, in which international institutions continue to force the Western ideals of transparency and deregulation on most of the East Asian economies while permitting Japan to remain the least transparent economy of the entire region.     

试析中国-日本-东盟战略互动关系

中国、日本与东盟是目前东亚地区权力结构中的三大主导力量，它们之间的关系在很大程度上制约和决定着东亚国际关系格局的基本走向。本文主要借鉴国际政治研究中的三角关系分析方法，分析当前中国-日本-东盟三角关系的特征与发展趋势。     

东亚贸易演变与产业结构调整

一、东亚经济发展政策的转变 （一）进口替代政策 从二战后到20世纪60年代末，东亚地区整体上处于恢复经济、完善经济结构阶段，重点发展工业，实行进口替代型的工业发展道路。经过20多年的发展，东亚地区建立了比较完整的工业体系，摆脱了对外国产品的严重依赖，     

国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性问题

在国际经济体系中,有效的国际制度安排将引起行为体的利益追求以及行为体之间的互动关系发生变化,以致国际关系行为体将在多大程度上遵守国际机制的约束。东亚区域合作具有非正规化、非制度化等特点,东亚货币合作中的机制规范并非完全以制度的形式确定下来。东亚货币合作中的机制属性主要体现在一系列双边和多边的协议中,并且是以基础的机制层次如区域性危机防范、救援机制等为发展点。由于这些发展点具备了机制属性,国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性便应得到更多的关注,以使得东亚货币合作能被更好地加以规范和引导。     

俄罗斯远东地区运输系统现代化改造问题研究

交通运输系统将俄罗斯远东地区内部各主体之间以及与俄罗斯其他地区之间联系起来,是远东地区融入俄罗斯统一经济空间、“确保领土完整和国家统一”的必要硬件条件。也是俄罗斯与亚太地区国家往来的重要基础。面对蓬勃发展的亚太地区,俄罗斯希望通过远东地区实现与亚太地区的经济一体化。为此,俄罗斯着手大力开发远东地区,前不久成立了远东发展部。俄罗斯对该地区交通运输系统进行现代化改造,是改变当地经济硬环境的一个重要举措。     

Regionalism in Asia: Past and Future

In order to predict the future of East Asia in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis, Kenneth B. Pyle looks to the region's past for lessons. He assesses East Asia's 'old new orders' and deduces six major lessons from their history that can be applied to the current post-Cold-War interregnum. The region is gaining an unprecedented power to shape its own system and to influence the international order, but its current institutions are built on extremely fragile foundations. The risk is that we are in an age of rising nationalism within the region and the emergence of strategic rivalries, arms races, and competition for limited resources. Finally, in looking at Japan, Pyle predicts that the currently awkward US-Japan alliance will determine the region's stability, despite the fact that Japan will most likely continue to shy away from a proactive role in the area. These lessons lead to the argument that events will drive the region's international relations in the future and that the region must seize this opportunity to create new stabilising institutions.     

试析冷战后东盟与俄罗斯的关系

冷战结束后，俄罗斯与东盟的关系在政治、经济、安全等各方面都得到了较快的发展，这种发展态势是伴随俄罗斯外交政策的转变和东亚区域合作的兴起，以及国际、国内、双边一系列有利因素推动下形成的。但双边关系仍面临种种困难与挑战。以俄罗斯目前总体实力，在短期内还难以打破中美日在东南亚的力量平衡状态。     

东亚经济复苏前景展望

１９９９年以来,遭受亚洲金融危机影响的东亚国家出现经济复苏迹象,如汇率基本稳定,股票市场活跃,出口大幅度增长,外汇储备增加。东亚经济真的复苏了吗？我们认为;东亚经济复苏的进程将受到外部经济环境变化和内部经济调整状况的影响,存在许多不确定性的因素。断言东亚经济已经进入全面复苏的阶段为时尚早,同时,东亚国家再次陷入危机的可能性也不大。稳步推进金融体制改革、加快经济结构调整和发展模式调整步伐,是东亚国家走向全面复苏的基础,也是２１世纪东亚国家创造新一轮经济发展空间的关键。     

奥巴马的东亚政策与地区构建

奥巴马政府上台后的东亚政策不仅显示了美国对东亚地区的重视,还表明了美国在与东亚地区发展关系中将更注重政治、经济、外交等软实力的运用。其思路也逐渐清晰,即以保持美国在东亚地区的战略主导权为核心。而围绕这个核心有三条主线:一是整个战略继续以日美同盟为主轴的军事同盟体系和伙伴国为依托,保持美国在东亚的军事地位;二是加强与东盟等区域合作组织的联系,引导其发展方向符合美国利益;三是以对话方式与中国进行战略博弈,以免中国挑战美国的霸权。东亚地区构建也将出现新的形势:美国跨太平洋区域构建面临多重挑战;东亚合作更加开放与包容;东亚区域合作更加倚重东亚核心国家合作的深入。     

东亚地区秩序的未来：东亚还是亚太？

东亚历史上曾先后建立以中国为中心的朝贡——华夷秩序以及以日本、美国为核心的霸权秩序,在以国家主权为国际关系核心机制的当代,这些反映不平等国家间关系的秩序无法复制到当今东亚,东亚的现实也决定了不存在孕育这些秩序的土壤。同时,20世纪80年代以来的全球化和区域经济一体化两种趋势极大程度地影响了当今东亚秩序的建构,然而一个统一的东亚秩序的建构又受到该地区复杂的大国关系的制约,东亚秩序将摇摆于“东亚”与“亚太”之间。     

新现实主义视野下的东亚地区主义发展路径

作为主流的国际关系理论,新现实主义也被运用于地区层面,成为很多国内外学者阐释东亚地区主义的主要理论范式之一。在新现实主义者看来,东亚国家对于均势体系或结构的追逐由来已久,无论是东盟的成立,大国平衡战略的实践,还是由于中国崛起而引发的"中国威胁论"以及中日之间的矛盾和竞争等都彰显了东亚地区结构的不断变动,显示出东亚地区国家间追逐权力平衡的过程。     

2012年国际战略与安全走势分析

2012年国际战略与安全形势将承接2011年出现的新态势向前发展。全球经济发展依旧困难重重,美欧等西方家金融经济危机的政治社会效应更趋突出;中东地区动荡呈长期化趋势;美国将战略重心向亚太转移,导致亚太地区格局重组加速;国际规制将进一步变革重塑,中国扩大参与规制重建和提升国际话语权的紧迫性将进一步上升,与外部世界互动不断面临新情况和新挑战。     

A three bloc world? The new East Asian regionalism

East Asian governments have engaged in unprecedented collaborationon trade and financial matters since the economic crises of1997. For some observers, such activity, building on a new senseof shared identity forged by resentment at Western responsesto the crises, is a significant step towards the formation ofan East Asian economic bloc. In reality, the new collaborationhas produced only modest results. Neither an East Asian preferentialtrade agreement nor an Asian Monetary Fund is likely to materialize.Underlying power realities and fundamental economic interestsare unchanged. The new interest in negotiating preferentialtrade agreements (many of which are with countries outside ofEast Asia) is best explained by government perceptions of theeffectiveness of such arrangements elsewhere in the global economy,and by a desire to increase bargaining power.     

日本-东盟CEP框架下的区域产业分工

2008年4月14日，日本与东盟在京都签署了《日本一东盟全面经济伙伴关系协定》（AJCEP）。AJCEP的签署，这是2002年1月以来日本对东盟经济外交取得的最重大成果。作为一个典型的“南北”型协定，同时也是日本首个与区域经济组织签署的自由贸易协定，AJCEP的出现既是日本对自身经济结构问题、区域经济一体化潮流和东亚区域产业分工发展的一种回应，又必将对今后的东亚区域产业分工格局产生重大影响。     

东亚地区秩序的演变及其展望

当前的东亚地区秩序正处于形成过程之中。未来的东亚地区秩序将是地区权力分配、地区内的制度安排以及地区认同和共有观念三种因素综合作用的结果。本文对东亚地区秩序的演变进行回顾,并对其未来的趋势做初步的探讨。     

Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia

Realists agree that great powers balance the military power of rising powers, but there is little agreement regarding secondary-state responses to rising powers. First, there are differences regarding whether secondary states balance or accommodate rising powers. Second, there are differences among realists regarding the distinct roles of economic and military factors in secondary-state alignment policies. Third, some scholars argue that state alignments are not necessarily determined by realist variables, but can reflect preferences shaped by intentions, historical experiences, or cultural influences. This paper addresses these issues in balance-of-power theory. Its empirical focus is the impact of the rise of China on secondary-state alignments in East Asia. After examining the complex mix of China's military and economic reach in East Asia, it concludes that secondary-state behavior is sensitive to local variation in the great power capabilities and that secondary states tend to accommodate rather than balance rising powers. It further concludes that economic capabilities alone are insufficient to generate accommodation, so that the political-economy literature should reexamine cases of apparent secondary-state accommodation to economic dependency, sensitive to the presence of military vulnerability on the part these secondary states to proximate great powers. These conclusions suggest that there is nothing sui generis or culturally-determined in East Asian international politics and that realism can explain alignment behavior among East Asian states as well as it does among European states. Research on East Asia's response to China's rise that is sensitive to intra-regional variations in U.S. and Chinese military and economic capabilities also challenges assumptions of an emerging Chinese regional hegemony or of a costly region-wide U.S.-China competition.     

面向21世纪的东亚经济共同体前景分析

90年代以来 ,东亚地区经济合作在多种动力的推动下 ,突飞猛进地发展。但目前建立东亚经济共同体仍存在着一定的障碍因素。要克服这些障碍 ,加快东亚地区经济一体化的进程 ,就必须调整该地区的大国关系 ,建立多层次的、小范围的区域合作组织 ,并针对东北亚政治经济形势复杂的特点 ,将经济发展与合作放在首位 ,走“以经促政”的道路 ,最终实现建立东亚经济共同体的目标。     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

东亚金融区域主义的兴起及其地缘安全影响

2008年全球金融危机以后,国际货币金融体系持续动荡,以地区金融安全合作为导向的金融区域主义逐步兴起,且成为一种显著的地缘政治经济现象。金融区域主义对地缘安全的影响主要有两个方面:一是地区金融安全,地区金融主义有助于构筑地区金融安全网络,推动地缘经济整合;二是地缘政治安全,地区金融主义会扩大地区大国的地缘政治影响力以及增加地区排斥外围国家干涉本地事务的能力。金融区域主义产生的这些地缘安全影响对不同的行为主体而言,具有不同的意义。首先,东盟作为地区性的经济共同体,会极力反对东亚大国利用金融区域主义将东盟纳入其势力范围之下,威胁东盟的地缘政治安全环境。其次,作为最大出资方,中日对地区货币金融领导权的争夺变得日趋激烈,且形成了持续的冲突性关系,从而削弱了东亚金融安全合作的政治前景。最后,东亚作为美元回流机制中的关键一环,如果将美国排斥在外,无疑会增加东亚地区与美国的地缘政治矛盾。因而,东亚金融区域主义在兴起的过程中,不仅要看到其稳定地区货币金融秩序的一面,同时也要看到其有可能制造地缘政治安全问题的一面。     

Invisible Linkages: A Regional Perspective of East Asian Political Economy

This article studies East Asian political economy from a regional perspective. The Asian financial crisis showed that East Asian economies are highly regionalized. However, the linkages among Asian economies, mostly informal in nature, often appear "invisible" to many in the West, who focus more on the states and formal institutions. Drawing on a broad set of literature mostly in Asian languages, this paper provides a systematic study of informal integration in East Asia, which consists of not only regional production networks, but also ethnic Chinese business networks and subregional economic zones. It finds that the three informal mechanisms have formed an interrelated pattern of regional integration in East Asia. The nature of the economic networks is very useful in explaining the Asian crisis and the different performances of East Asian economies in the crisis. The crisis has also resulted in profound changes in informal integration. While the Japanese–led production networks have been greatly weakened, the Chinese Economic Area is rising, driven by the ethnic Chinese business networks and subregional economic zones. As a result, the Japan–dominated "flying geese pattern" has been broken. The connections between Greater China and the United States have also been enhanced and are out–competing the Japanese production networks. Many of the new developments have been ignored in the West but they are key factors that will shape the future of Asian and World political economy.