Future U.S.-Russian Relations

Presidential changes in Russia and the U.S. may open new opportunities for improving increasingly important bilateral relations, but expectations are not high. With the elapse of the so-called Putin autocracy and the Bush unilateralism, U.S.-Russian relations are overshadowed by a new ＂Cold Word War,＂ if not a Cold War. The U.S. will continue to accuse Russia of running an autocracy in order to justify its own invasive foreign conduct and gain the moral high-ground. The two powers will be involved in a bitter struggle, alternating between offensives and defensives, containment and cooperation.     

On World Multi-Polarization

AftertheendoftheColdWar,especiallyaftertheBushJr.governmentassumingpower,theU.S.hasactivelypursuedunilateralismandstrengthenedthemomentumofunipolarity,relyingonitspositionofstrengthastheonlysuperpowerandtakingadvan-tageofthefightagainstterrorism.However,there-sultisthatmoreandmorecountriesarenowinfavorofamulti-polarworldinstead.Worldmulti-polar-izationisanobjectivetrendoftortuousdevelop-ment.Thecontroversyoverthisissuereflectsthecomplexityofinternationalsituation.Multi-polarityisthebasicfea…     

美国构建后冷战东亚安全模式

冷战结束以来，美国的东亚安全战略经过近20年的发展与调整，已初步形成和正在努力打造后冷战时期的安全网络模式，即：以保持前沿军事存在和海外基地为基石，以双边军事同盟与准同盟为轴心，以地区多边安全合作机制为辅助模式，以与区域内非同盟、准同盟国家和区域组织进行高层对话为补充形式，在美国的主导下交叉运用。     

美日同盟的转型与东亚安全秩序的建构

美日同盟是冷战时代的产物,在冷战中发挥了反苏反共的重要作用。冷战结束后,美日同盟在国际社会的角色转型、性质定位正逐步发生演变,并出现日益强化的趋势。冷战后时代,美日同盟的调整对东亚安全秩序产生了重要影响,一方面,它遏制和防范中国的发展;另一方面,它在一定程度上发挥了制衡作用,有利于防止东亚地区危机的爆发。以美日同盟为核心的东亚安全秩序并不利于东亚地区的和平与稳定,因此,要构建良性的东亚安全秩序,必须把以美日同盟为核心的美国同盟体系和作为新兴大国的中国并重,协调处理东亚安全事务。     

美国新政权与六方会谈前景探析

美国大选,执政八年的共和党政府结束了其历史使命,民主党奥巴马新政府建立.根据其上台前后的言行来看,美国奥巴马新政权的基本政策主要在于重振经济、结束伊战以及坚持反恐.在外交政策上,美国新政权将改变其前任布什政府初期的单边主义武力政策,更多地采取多边或双边的协调与合作政策.在朝鲜核问题以及六方会谈机制方面,虽然美国和朝鲜同为当事国,以及中国在其中也发挥了非常重要的作用,但是美国仍然握有相当的主动权.美国新政权的基本政策同样会延续布什政府后期利用六方会谈框架与朝鲜接触和谈判的政策,甚至会采取一些更积极的政策,因为奥巴马政权要解决其面临的内外难题,需要其盟国的协助,也需要中国等国家的协助,对朝鲜这样的国家也希望能够在国际压力下促使其和平地放弃核开发.当然,半岛无核化及防止核扩散仍然是美国的根本利益,要求朝鲜放弃核开发的目标不会有丝毫的改变,甚至从原则上来说美国新政权仍然没有承诺放弃使用武力.此外,美国新政权或者还仍然存在同中国和朝鲜之间在意识形态上的对立,但是,除非发生预料不到的突发事件,美国在朝核问题上使用武力的可能性极小,在意识形态上的某些不同也不会影响奥巴马政权务实灵活的现实主义政策.总之,美国新政权的基本政策有利于朝核问题的缓和,同样也有利于六方会谈持续发挥作用.虽然美国新政权有可能同朝鲜之间有更多的双边直接接触和谈判,但是不可能脱离六方会谈的框架,即或者两国的双边谈判在六方会谈框架范围内加以实现,或者彼此都需要六方会谈框架作为自己外交回旋的余地.作为美国新政权,虽然为了能够使朝核问题有所突破而有可能更加重视双边谈判,但考虑到同中俄的战略性关系以及同其盟国日韩的伙伴关系,也不可能弃六方会谈框架而不顾.     

Force Size for the Post-Westphalian World

The quality of the U.S. military has improved steadily since the end of the Cold War, but technological and managerial advancements cannot compensate for the inadequate size of the American armed forces. The post–Cold War years saw a shift from the Westphalian, state-ordered world to one where Western states are at war with transnational, substate terrorist groups. This requires adjustments in the American military establishment. Improvements in quality must be matched by an increase in quantity in order to meet U.S. security needs. As interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have proven, a minimalist force may be sufficient to win a war, but where nation-building is required, it will find it difficult to win the peace.     

古巴—美国关系50年四题

古巴革命是美国与古巴双边关系历史的重要转折点,美国对古巴革命及其后续发展的反应和政策则是冷战环境中美国战略思想的典型表露.全球冷战终结并没有改变古美之间的冷战式关系,凸显了美国政策的单边主义性质、意识形态色彩和国内政治主导倾向.     

20世纪70年代美国在鄂霍次克海的谍报活动探析

美国海军和美国国家安全局(NSA)等部门于20世纪70年代联合发起了在鄂霍次克海海域窃听苏联海底通讯电缆的谍报活动,它曾被认为是美国现代史上最成功的情报搜集活动之一,此即"常春藤之铃"行动。其起根发由、运策决机及东窗事发都有着比较深刻的历史背景。冷战后美国针对有关国家的类似谍报活动远未停止。     

论南海问题中的美国因素

在影响南海问题的外部力量中,美国是最重要的第三方。冷战时期,美国对南海问题主要采取不介入和不表态的中立政策。冷战结束以来,美国开始关注和介入南海问题,并逐步采取具有明显倾向的政治和军事干预政策。美国的介入和干预加大了南海问题的复杂性和中国解决南海问题的难度。     

Reassessing U.S. Strategy in the Aftermath of the Korean War

This article examines the reassessment of U.S. strategy that Dwight D. Eisenhower directed after replacing Harry S. Truman in the White House in January 1953, as he worked to bring the Korean War to an end and then confronted the problems remaining in its aftermath. Despite much of the rhetoric of the early Eisenhower administration, the outcome of that reassessment fit more closely the objective of containment than key strategic formulations of its predecessor. Why was this so? How did the orientation apply to ending the war in Korea and sustaining the U.S. position there and elsewhere after the armistice? What insights, if any, do the process of reassessment and its outcome provide for the present? Answers to these questions serve to emphasize the dynamic and contingent nature of American strategy in the early Cold War and the importance of flexible, engaged leadership in the White House.     

Comte's Caveat: How We Misunderstand Terrorism

Since the end of the Cold War, and particularly since September 11, 2001, the U.S. Government has substantially misunderstood its circumstances and has launched policies based on a compound error that has made those circumstances worse. The error consists of three parts: thinking the United States had more usable power after the Cold War when it had less; misreading the sources of apocalyptical terrorism; and failing to correct its misreading because of a bias set deep in its own political culture. Seeing the situation and the problems as they really are would lead to vast changes in both foreign and homeland security policies.     

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post-Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as "foreign policy writ large ," this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post-Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two-stage model to evaluate the decision-making process. The first-stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post-Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.     

The Role of Ethnic Interest Groups in U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case of the Cuban American National Foundation

The role and range of activities of ethnic interest groups in U.S. foreign policy has received relatively little scholarly attention, though in the wake of the Cold War analysis of their activities has increased. The case of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) during the 1980s suggests, however, that ethnic interest group activity is not new and may be far more complex than our standard conceptualizations allow. We review the literature on the role of ethnic interest groups in U.S. foreign policy and assemble some common assumptions and arguments about their origins, roles and relations with the government, and the conditions that favor their success. Then we examine origins of CANF, its web of relationships with government even during the Cold War, and its role as a near co-executor of policy. We conclude by assessing what the CANF case suggests about standard views of the roles of at least some ethnic interest groups in the process of making U.S. foreign policy, including the need to see how the state may try to use and sponsor such groups to further its policy goals.     

试析中越关系中的美国因素

美国因素在中越关系中起着重要的作用。冷战结束以后，尤其是近些年来，越美关系发展迅速。两国在政治、经济和军事领域的合作，将不可避免地对中越关系造成影响。但是由于越美之间存在诸多矛盾和分歧，使得美国因素对中越关系的影响十分有限。对此，中国应积极应对，通过发展对越关系、对美关系和提升自身实力的方式，将美国因素对中越关系造成的不利影响降至最低点。     

The U.S. and third World Revolutionary States: Understanding the Breakdown in Relations

Although scholars focused on Soviet–American relations during the Cold War, the greatest number of conflicts for the U.S. occurred in the Third World, and most of these were with revolutionary states. Could U.S. policies toward the new revolutionary states have prevented the almost universal collapse in relations? Two dominant explanations for this breakdown are (1) American hostility toward revolutionary change and (2) Stephen Walt's variant of the spiral model. Using the comparative case approach and selecting "hard cases," this article disputes these explanations and offers a new theory based on the externalization of domestic conflict in the revolutionary states. Given their ideological goals, the radicals externalized their domestic conflicts with the moderates, who had transnational ties with the U.S., by fomenting tensions with Washington. To demonstrate that this theory can be generalized, this article varies the dependent variable and shows through a critical case that its lack of conflict can best be explained by the absence of the conditions that lead to externalization. The foreign policies of both the U.S. and revolutionary states are explained by classical realism as opposed to Walt's structural realism, which fails to account for the foreign policies of Third World states.     

美国的中亚经济战略及其影响

冷战结束后，美国中亚战略的重点几经波折和调整，现已趋向成熟稳健，形成了以推动中亚区域合作为中心的经济战略，并取得了显著实效，为美国在中亚的存在提供了前所未有的合法性和现实基础，对中亚局势的走向具有不容忽视的影响。美国的中亚经济战略客观上起到了推动中亚融入国际社会的进程，中国可以顺势而为，尽可能通过多边机制参与美国主导的经济项目。     

The United States and the Promotion of Democracy in Latin America: Then, Now and Tomorrow

The United States has been deeply involved in Latin American affairs for over a century, but promoting democracy has only recently become a priority. The end of the Cold War presented a unique opportunity to provide greater support for democracy in the Western Hemisphere. This article examines the main multilateral and bilateral actions undertaken by the United States to promote democracy in Latin America in recent decades. It makes use of a newly available dataset that specifies the investment made on democracy in different countries and sectors between 1990 and 2005. It also addresses the challenges that the United States confronts in promoting democracy in the region at the current time and the possible scenarios for the near future.     

Main Features of the Relations Among the Big Powers in 2004

Theyear2004hasseenanewroundofinteractionamongtheworldmajorpowerswhichistouchedoffbyU.S.unilateralismandmultilateralmechanismbeingthecentralplatformoftheseinteractions.Deeprootedcontradictionsamongthebigpowersstillexisted,theircontentionsforgeo-strategicar-easandresourcesweregainingmomentum,whilerelationsamongthemweregenerallystable.China'sroleinbigpowerrelationshadbeenenhanced.Inthelongrun,theoverallframeworkbasedontheco-existenceofcooperationandcompetition,aswellascoordinationandcontentionam…     

东南亚安全合作构想

本文着重对东南亚安全合作相关问题进行探讨，并就我国在东南亚安全合作背景下面临的挑战提出相应对策，认为中国作为东亚地区的大国应顺应经济全球化和区域一体化的发展趋势，主动融入和积极推动地区安全合作的发展，为新时期我国国家目标的实现创造良好的国际环境。     

导致1963年柬埔寨王国拒绝美援的诸因素分析

1963年柬埔寨王国拒绝美援是1965年柬埔寨与美国断交的前奏,它连同柬埔寨与美国断交一起对冷战时期东南亚地区的历史产生了重要的影响。柬埔寨在1963年拒绝美援是邻国因素、美国因素、中国因素和柬埔寨自身因素等要素合力的结果。对影响1963年柬埔寨王国拒绝美援的诸因素的分析将有助于我们较好地理解亚洲冷战的复杂性,更好地理解制约美国亚洲冷战战略得以有效实施的因素。