Where Are Sino-U.S. Relations Headed?

Sino-U.S.relations have fluctuated since the beginning of 2010. What are prospects for their development? Will it be fiercer strategic competition or will it be long-term strategic stability? Taking into the international system and transitions in global power,this essay analyzes recent changes in Sino-U.S. relations and U.S. strategic assessment of China. Prospects for and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations will be discussed. Since Sino-U.S. relations have always been based on the interaction of multiple...     

Cross-Strait Relations since 1979 in the Context of the Sino-U.S.Bi-Structure

Cross-strait relations over the past 30 years can be divided into three different time periods,which correspond to changes in the Sino-U.S.bi-structure in terms of materialist structure and idealist structure.In other words,although changes in Taiwan itself have affected cross-strait relations they are subordinate to changes in the Sino-U.S.bi-structure.     

Darfur and Sino-U.S. Relations

The Darfur issue has been influencing the Sino-U.S. relationship since July 2004. There are at least three reasons to say so. Firstly, China and the U.S. disagree,both on the nature of the issue and on its solution. Secondly,China and the U.S. have conflicting interests, especially their oil interests in Sudan and the African continent.Finally, U.S. domestic political forces have forced the issue onto the agenda of Sino-U.S. relations. Although the issue has become an unharmonious factor in the Sino-U.S.relationship, it has not damaged the bilateral relations too much. Instead, the two countries have been cooperating on the issue.     

Transforming Sino-U.S. Strategic Relations

Sino-U.S. strategic relations have undergone profound transformations over the past thirty years. It is increasingly urgent to change and transcend Sino-U.S. strategic relations. However, rapid adjustments and changes in world pattem prevent China and the U.S. from drawing a clear picture of each other＇s strategy. Vagueness in strategy awareness leads to difficult strategic adjustment, impacting virtuous interaction and stable development of Sino-U.S. strategic relations. The U.S., as relatively more important part in bilateral strategic relations, needs to take an initiative in substantial moves.     

The Iran Nuclear Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

The Iran nuclear issue has become the "third factor" in Sino-U.S. relations. Problems began when the U.S. imposed sanctions against Chinese companies, and this became a major issue affecting Sino-U.S. relationship.China and the U.S. have different agendas in dealing the Iran nuclear issue. However, they also share some common ground. Different scenarios regarding the Iran nuclear issue affect Sino- U.S. relations in different ways.     

The Three Images of Sino-U.S. Relations

In the early 1950s, Kenneth W. Waltz＇s book Man, State and War laid the cornerstone for a new branch of international relations theory called the Level of Analysis. The author of this paper believes that Sino-U.S. relations can be studied in a similar multi-dimensional way. Among Waltz＇s three images, the world strategic structure, i.e. the international image, has been the most decisive factor in the development of Sino-U.S. relations over most of the past 40 years.     

论全球金融危机下的中美经济关系失衡及其调整

20世纪90年代以来,中美经济关系日益紧密;但与此同时,两国贸易关系与投资关系失衡也不断加剧。全球金融危机的爆发对中美贸易关系失衡与投资关系失衡产生了不同的影响,并导致二者的调整路径明显分化。在后危机时代,美联储的宽松货币政策及退出时机、中美两国的经济结构调整、现行国际货币体系的改革以及人民币国际化进程的加速都将影响中美经济关系失衡的调整。从长期来看,中美投资关系失衡的调整将慢于贸易关系失衡的调整,但二者最终都将向均衡水平回归。     

Constructive Development of Sino-U.S.Relations:Intrinsic Logic and Vision Constitution at Non-interest Level

International relations are interactions mainly between states and between international organizations. Since states and organizations are made up of people, these interactions are influenced by human nature. This is the same for Sino-U.S. relations as can be seen by recent developments which show the influences of human thinking and cultural values. The improvement seen in their relations has been cemented by a fostering of mutual understanding and commonality of cultural values. Positive development acquired during diplomatic interactions offer useful lessons for future cooperation. Relations between China and the U.S. can be further improved by learning from history, having a clearer perception and building mutual trust.     

China's Periphery: Implications for U.S. Policy and Interests

The major, middle and small powers on China's periphery are often portrayed as passive objects of great power competition between the United States and China, but in fact the foreign policy strategies of these states plays a significant role in shaping Sino-U.S. relations and the overall order in Asia. Before examining the actors on China's periphery in this important FPRI conference, therefore, it is worth starting at the macro-level of international relations in Asia within which they operate.     

The Zimbabwe Issue in Sino-U.S. Ties

The United States has criticized the domestic and foreign policies of the Mugabe regime, and has attempted to raise the Zimbabwe issue in the UN Security Council, thus creating a point of potential conflict in Sino-U.S. relations.China differs from the United States on this issue not because of the measures taken by the Western countries such as economic sanctions and political pressure, but,more significantly, because of the Western conception of democracy and human rights, and the difference between the U.S. and Chinese strategies in Africa. The policies of China and the United States on the Zimbabwe issue can be interpreted as a struggle between two powers in Africa. In the short term, however, it is the Middle East that will continue to preoccupy U.S. foreign policy, and Zimbabwe will not become a major flash point in Sino-U.S. relations.     

新一届美国政府对外政策及影响前瞻笔谈

近年来,世界多极化趋势不断发展,美国主导的全球秩序开始显露坍缩征兆。然而,美国仍然保持着当今世界唯一的超级大国地位,其内政外交政策选择一直具有全球性影响。特朗普政府实施的"美国优先"政策对全球秩序造成了严重冲击,特别是对华发动极限施压性的"贸易战"和战略竞争,使中美关系发生严重倒退。特朗普政府随心所欲、极端强硬的执政风格,不仅招致很多国家的激烈批判和反对,在美国国内也引起了巨大争议。美国大选已经落下帷幕,尽管现任总统特朗普仍然没有承认和接受败选事实,但美国政府更迭已经无可逆转。新一届美国政府将采取什么样的对外政策?我们将如何应对美国因政府更迭而发生的政策调整?为加强对美国对外政策的前瞻研究,2020年11月5日,本刊编辑部联合吉林大学经济学院、现代国际关系研究所、东北亚研究院、东北亚研究中心、美国研究所等单位召开了"美国大选后的世界格局与中美关系"学术研讨会,10位专家做了会议发言。本刊选择其中3篇和另外1篇投稿摘要刊发,希望能够促进对美国新一届政府内政外交政策的前瞻性研究。     

近期中越海上问题与中越关系简析

近年来，中越两国在南海问题上时而出现一些摩擦，中越关系因为这些摩擦一直在曲折中保持发展，集中体现为双方高层间保持交流与互动。同时，中越双方还达成一系列共识，从大局和战略高度出发，推进双方全面战略合作伙伴关系，双方还愿妥善处理海上问题，维护南海和平与稳定。尽管中越双方已达成诸多原则共识，但越方在落实海上问题原则共识上需表现出更多诚意。     

海权问题与中美关系述论

从近代到冷战时期,海权问题一直是重大战略问题。长期以来,我国在反对美国海洋霸权、维护我国海洋安全进行了不懈的斗争。冷战后,美国的太平洋海权战略安排具有遏制中国作为潜在对手挑战美国太平洋霸权的图谋,并集中体现在美日军事同盟、台湾问题、南海问题等具体领域对中国的海洋主权和海洋权益形成沉重的压力与挑战,对此中国应该引起高度重视。     

中美货物贸易互补性的实证研究

1979～2010年中美贸易规模呈现百倍以上的增长,其原因在于长期以来中美贸易互补性不断增强。通过对贸易结合度指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数的分析研究,均显示出中美双边贸易关系是紧密的,双边贸易的互补性是显著和稳定的,这充分说明中美所处的国际分工的地位及两国产业结构调整的变化使双边贸易往来处于有利的局面,但也应看到双边的贸易摩擦纠纷一直不断,这不利因素短期内难以解决,因而成为阻碍中美贸易发展的障碍。     

The Gwadar Port Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

Because of its unique geopolitical importance,China's aid to construct Gwadar Port has caused much concern in the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. sees it as strategic expansion in the Indian Ocean and claims that China is intent on using Gwadar Port as a naval base in its "string of pearls strategy." The U.S. and China maintain conflicting interests on this issue. Although Sino-U.S.relations may not be affected greatly in the near future, the negative influence in the long term cannot be ignored.     

试析中越关系中的美国因素

美国因素在中越关系中起着重要的作用。冷战结束以后，尤其是近些年来，越美关系发展迅速。两国在政治、经济和军事领域的合作，将不可避免地对中越关系造成影响。但是由于越美之间存在诸多矛盾和分歧，使得美国因素对中越关系的影响十分有限。对此，中国应积极应对，通过发展对越关系、对美关系和提升自身实力的方式，将美国因素对中越关系造成的不利影响降至最低点。     

论奥巴马政府对俄政策调整的原因及俄美关系前景

前些年,布什政府对俄罗斯奉行的"挤压、遏制及削弱"的"单边主义"政策,致使美俄关系陷入日益"冰化"的状态。奥巴马上台后,呈现出谋求修复和改善与俄罗斯关系的政策调整趋势,而美国"单边主义"政策的挫败、俄罗斯方面的积极"抗争"以及美俄势力此消彼长的发展趋势等则是美国对俄政策调整的主要原因;以美国对俄政策调整为契机,美俄关系有望进入一个"合作加强、对抗减少"的"建设性"新阶段,然而,由于一系列制约性因素的存在,俄美关系的实质性改善仍任重而道远。     

Sino-U.S. Cooperation in North Korean Nuclear Issue

China and the United States have cooperated closely in resolving the second North Korean nuclear crisis.China and the United States have worked together with South Korea, Russia and Japan to prevent the North Korean nuclear issue from spiraling out of control, and they have also tried to make progress in the six-party talks. Despite differences over the issue, both sides are maintaining the momentum of cooperation with increasing mutual understanding and trust. The current U.S.-North Korea rapprochement has progressed quickly, adding a new factor in Sino-U.S. cooperation. Apart from bilateral contact with North Korea, the United States is insisting on a multilateral approach, continuing to persuade China to share responsibility for a nuclear-free Peninsula, and jointly advancing the process in the second phase set forth in the February 13 Agreement on Initial Actions. China's role,therefore, remains indispensable.     

纪念尼克松访华40周年——在利益与冲突中发展前行的中美关系

中美关系自尼克松访华以来经历了多次跌宕起伏、反复曲折,但总体趋势是向前发展的。日益紧密联系和相互依存的经贸关系是推动中美关系积极发展的基础;不断增多的共同利益,谋求互利共赢的愿望成为维系中美关系向前发展的动力;而中美综合国力的消长使两国力量结构渐趋平衡,为双方平等对话、发展关系创造了条件。40年来美国对华定位的摇摆一直影响中美关系的发展方向和趋势,成为中美关系起伏曲折的主要原因,其中,中美社会制度和意识形态的差异是两国关系中具有对抗性的消极因素,而台湾问题则是影响中美关系向前发展的最大障碍。     

On the Basis of Sino-U.S.Cooperation

The thirty years＇ reform and open door policies in China have injected elements of capitalism into the Chinese economy. These capitalist factors have had a huge impact on China＇s domestic and foreign policies; economically speaking, China and the United States have become quite similar. The ideological differences which made them enemies in the first thirty years after the founding of the PRC have lessened considerably, and the two now interact as commercially competitive partners. This current similarity, according to the author, is the foundation which guarantees the future success of Sino-U.S. cooperation.