后危机时代新兴市场国家的发展前景——以中东欧国家为研究视角

自20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家迈上了经济转轨之路,纷纷从传统的计划经济向市场经济转变,逐步走上了加速发展的道路.然而,由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机使中东欧国家普遍受到冲击.中东欧国家之所以在劫难逃,主要是由于与世界经济的联系日益密切.可以说,导致这些国家遭受厄运的罪魁祸首就是"高外资、高举债"的发展模式.因此,...     

中东欧国家经济增长模式初探

中东欧国家在政治、经济全盘西化的基础上实行以欧盟为依托,主要依靠外资实现经济增长的发展模式.这种模式对促进它们经济增长是有成效的.但金融危机凸现了其弊端及对中东欧国家的潜在风险.     

中东欧与俄罗斯经济转型十年:对比与借鉴

中东欧和俄罗斯的经济转型已经走过10年历程.本文以中东欧和俄罗斯10年经济转型为研究对象,首先运用比较研究的方法,依据统计资料对中东欧和俄罗斯各自的经济转型绩效进行了概括性评价.指出,虽然中东欧和俄罗斯的经济市场化在制度体制的转型方面取得了一定成就,但考虑到制度转型的不良经济绩效,经济转型的综合绩效是不能令人满意的.其中中东欧与俄罗斯这个经济转型群体在绩效方面又表现出差异性,并在此基础上对比分析了中东欧与俄罗斯之间经济转型绩效差异的主客观原因,对这些国家的经济转型经验教训进行了概括性总结.     

大国争斗与夹缝中的中东欧

二战后直至冷战结束,"中东欧"的称谓经历了概念混乱到复原的历史变迁.大国逐鹿欧洲大陆,中东欧是其主要争夺对象.这些国家在夹缝中左右为难,同时也能左右逢源.在关俄争夺中,中东欧国家普遍弃俄投美,以求得安全保障.这些国家对美国和欧盟各有所图,即"军事安全上靠美国,经济上靠欧盟",在美欧争执时它们往往支持美国而得罪欧盟,有的甚至借美压欧,自己坐大.欧俄关系发展相对平稳,双方的摩擦大多与中东欧有关,俄以能源为武器整治这些国家,达到了"敲山震虎"的目的.     

中东欧国家加入欧盟进程:战略选择与政策调整

中东欧国家加入欧盟战略不仅意味着制度的模式选择,而且也意味着国家现代化和参与国际竞争的方式选择.目前,中东欧10国已经开始了加入欧盟谈判的进程,并按照欧盟设计的政治经济制度范本和法律框架进行整合和政策调整.为加入欧盟所做的准备,一方面加快了中东欧国家市场机制建设和与国际经济法律、惯例接轨的步伐,促进了经济开放和结构改革,另一方面也产生了一系列负面的影响,这些负面影响大都以经济问题直接反映出来,却隐含着深层次的社会政治矛盾.中国参与国际竞争的战略与中东欧国家不完全相同,但都要面对和解决许多相同的问题,研究并吸取中东欧国家与欧盟一体化进程的经验教训对中国如何应对加入WTO后所面临的各种挑战极具借鉴意义.     

从铁板一块到市场细分——普京时期俄罗斯对中东欧国家政策

普京入主克里姆林宫之后,俄罗斯改变了对中东欧的政策,不再将中东欧地区视为一个整体,而是根据中东欧国家不同的政治和经济进程以及不同的地缘政治特性,将它们大致划分为3个不同地区,针对不同地区和国家采取差异化政策,并赋予每个地区不同的功能和作用.俄罗斯对中东欧国家"市场细分"的政策已经获得回报.     

试论国际金融危机对中东欧国家的影响

本文在对国际金融危机对中东欧国家影响的路径探讨的基础上,分析国际金融危机对中东欧国家经济的影响。文章强调中东欧尽管具备发生区域性金融危机的条件,但是中东欧国家的危机处在可控范围之内,中东欧国家不会发生经济崩溃,也不会诱发新一轮的金融危机。     

研究区域合作 促进经济转轨——读《中东欧国家区域经济合作转型》

正中国社会科学院欧洲研究所的年轻学者贾瑞霞撰写的《中东欧国家区域经济合作转型》~①一书是我国学者在区域经济合作研究中取得的一项新成果。该书从实践和理论层面探讨中东欧国家从经互会到欧洲联盟的区域经济合作的进程。中东欧国家的区域经济合作转型折射了区域主义理论与实践的互动,也在一定程度上为区域主义提供了新的理论素材。中东欧国家区域经济合作转型是对国际格局变化以及全球化的理性应对。在国际金融危机、欧债危机背景下,中东欧国家受到的波及也从一个     

复苏与改革:中东欧尚未完结的转型之路——欧洲复兴开发银行2010年《转型报告》评述

中东欧国家是世界金融危机的重灾区,欧洲复兴开发银行的2010年《转型报告》着重分析了中东欧国家在后危机时期经济复苏的表现,探讨了中东欧国家为进一步推动经济增长和发展所需要采取的改革举措,强调中东欧国家的经济转型并未终结。本文在对2010年《转型报告》进行评介的基础上,进一步讨论了中东欧国家经济增长和发展模式的特点和内在缺陷,认为中东欧国家在未来不仅要通过内外平衡的经济发展来实现增长的速度和稳定性之间的平衡,更要消除经济体系的二元分割现象,降低资源优化配置的交易成本。本文还分析了中东欧国家的转型经历对中国经济增长和发展模式转型的启示。     

对中东欧国家发展道路的思考

中东欧国家处于大国之间,在选择发展道路的关键时刻,往往仰仗大国或大国集团的保护,因而特别容易受到国际关系变动的影响,并且大多移植外来模式.中东欧国家的"欧洲化"道路也是对西方模式的移植,但与一战结束后模仿西方式民主制的尝试和冷战爆发后照搬苏联模式的实践不同的是,这次移植得益于中东欧国家的主观意愿、中东欧各国国情对西方模...     

The WTO and foreign investment

The European Commission and other OECD countries would like a foreign-investment treaty (or 'multilateral investment agreement') within the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This would allow foreign companies to establish themselves with 100 per cent equity in all sectors (except security) in any WTO country; and receive 'national treatment' on a par with local firms. National policies favouring local enterprises or facilities would be deemed discriminatory, and thus illegal under WTO rules. The penalties for non-compliance with WTO agreements are extensive. This article explores the grave implications of such a treaty for developing countries, and suggests alternatives that are available to them.     

外国直接投资与哈萨克斯坦经济增长的实证分析

哈萨克斯坦独立后实施了向市场经济体制的转轨.十余年来,哈萨克斯坦政府积极开展与外界的联系,大力吸引外国直接投资.实证研究表明,外国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦国内经济复苏与增长起到了巨大的推动作用.进一步引导和优化外国直接投资的结构对哈萨克斯坦实现经济腾飞与现代化具有重要的意义.     

俄罗斯对外直接投资:理论、现状与影响

进入21世纪以来,经济全球化把世界各国紧密联系在一起,并逐渐形成了以知识、金融活动、信息技术为中心,以跨国企业为依托的国际经济新格局.在经济全球化中,任何国家都融入国际市场,其中一个很重要的手段就是开展国际直接投资活动.     

Is foreign direct investment good for the poor? A review and stocktake

Few issues in the development process raise as much heat as the role of the international private sector in the form of transnational corporations (TNCs) and foreign direct investment (FDI). This article reviews the most recent research on the impact of FDI on economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries. A brief history of FDI is given. This is followed by discussion of the conceptual transmission mechanisms linking FDI, growth, and poverty. The available empirical evidence is then discussed. It is argued that it is not a question of whether FDI is good or bad for social and economic development, but that its impact is determined by the terms upon which FDI is accepted. Although overall the evidence on FDI, growth, and poverty is not conclusive, research has had a tendency to suggest that the benefits of FDI are linked to the FDI policy regime; and that the current orthodoxy of maintaining a highly liberal FDI policy regime leads to a situation whereby developing countries have a precarious trade-off to make between attracting FDI and maintaining policy instruments to extract the benefits of any inflows.     

中印利用外资的比较研究

中国和印度分别于1978年、1991年实行改革开放政策.此后两国经济发展迅速,利用外资规模不断扩大,日益成为当今国际直接投资的两个主要区域.中印国情相似,又是在吸引外资方面的重要竞争对手,对两国利用外资的现状、模式、政策以及环境进行比较分析,对中国的改革开放与扩大吸收外资有借鉴意义.     

The impact of instability and institutions on US foreign direct investment in developing areas

American investors locating in developing countries attempt to minimize uncertainty by selecting hosts with the weakest capacity for engaging in post-contractual opportunistic behavior such as expropriation. Analysis shows that international investors prefer countries with democratic institutions, in order to monitor and defend their capital. Foreign investors also prefer developing states with smaller militaries to reduce the amount of coercion potential the host government can wield against external capital. Yet political instability does not seem to affect foreign investments as expected. A rationale for this finding is that domestic disturbances do not necessarily target foreign investors or their operations.     

Investors,turbulence, and transition: Democratic transition and foreign direct investment in nineteen developing countries

Do profit‐seeking foreign direct investors value a country's transition to democracy? If they do, they should vote with their pocketbooks, resulting in a post‐transition increase in foreign direct investment flows. This study attempts to uncover links between transition to democracy and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, In doing so, it addresses existing arguments about connections between democracy and investor behavior. The regions examined have not only experienced democratic transitions, they also account for the majority of the increasing flow of FDI to the developing world. This research employs time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) economic and political data, using ordinary least squares with panel corrected standard errors. The central finding is that transition to democracy has a negative effect on FDI. Secondarily, political instability and higher levels of democracy also deter foreign direct investors.     

The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world

Given the popular wisdom that the U.S. government influences IMF policies and tends to support the business community, it might be expected that IMF programs benefit U.S. firms abroad and thus borrower nations are attractive destinations for U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI). Surprisingly, no study has tested the impact of IMF loans on U.S. FDI. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we use a treatment effects model and interviews with IMF staff researchers to investigate whether countries under different kinds of IMF programs receive more U.S. FDI than countries not under IMF arrangements. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF borrowers tend to be more attractive to U.S. investors but not all IMF programs have the same effect. Our findings suggest that differences in loan duration, the extent of borrower input in policy decisions, and loan amounts affect borrowers’ leverage with the Fund and the U.S.     

Utopianism and the Bush foreign policy

Amidst a renewed debate over the existence of an American empire, serious questions have emerged about whether the Bush foreign policy can be described as ‘realist’ given the widespread opposition that it encounters from academic realists. This paper is an attempt to shed light on this vexing issue by interpreting the Bush foreign policy through the lens of the broader religious–political tradition of America. Specifically, it argues that the neoconservatives in the Bush administration draw on the utopian strand of this tradition when setting their foreign policy agenda and justifying their decisions to the public. With special reference to Iraq, it discusses how three key utopian themes—the perfection of human life on earth, the possibility of limiting evil through conversion and the prospect of arresting human development—are reflected in the neoconservative agenda. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of how these themes run counter to the tenets of classical realism and of the ethical and political hazards that emerge from an attempt at utopian empire.