“奥巴马现象”解读

奥巴马当选总统成为美国政治史上引人注目的跨时代事件。他的当选是由诸多因素促成的,其中首要原因是共和党的糟糕政策迫使"走投无路"的选民转向奥巴马;另一个重要原因在于奥巴马本人的杰出表现。此外,这也是美国民主政治进步的结果。     

美国外贸政策调整对东北亚经贸格局的影响

美国外贸政策调整对东北亚经贸格局的影响时雨田探讨东北亚经济合作问题，美国的影响是一个不容忽视的因素。特别是克林顿人主白宫后，美国的经济政策和外贸政策都发生了重大转折，这必将对未来世界经济贸易的发展产生深远的影响。本文拟从美国外贸政策的调整出发，探讨其...     

奥巴马政府对俄罗斯、蒙古战略透视——基于东北亚地缘战略视角

俄罗斯、蒙古是东北亚地区的陆权国家.奥巴马执政以来减少与俄罗斯在东北亚的对立,树立蒙古为亚洲“民主典范”的标杆,挑动东北亚陆权大国竞争、动摇大陆纵深安定局面,进而控制中国崛起对美国区域优势的冲击.中国应从战略高度,稳定中俄、中蒙合作,夯实“倚陆向海”的地缘基础,化解美国对俄蒙战略造成的不利影响.     

2012年美国大选的现状及前景分析

2012 年美国总统大选具有不同以往的特殊性。一方面，美国民众希望选出一位能够 将美国经济带出低谷，维持美国在全球主导地位的总统；另一方面，黑人总统奥巴马与最有可能与 共和党候选人的摩门教派的罗姆尼竞争，成为美国大选历史上的一个独特现象。盖洛普民调显示， 现有总统施政满意度、经济信心指数和国家发展方向满意度都低于历史上总统竞选连任时的水 平，经济复苏状况将成为影响奥巴马能否连任的关键因素。与奥巴马相比，罗姆尼如何聚拢党内各 派的支持是其面临的主要挑战，而在外交政策和竞选资金方面，罗姆尼与奥巴马有较大差距。当前 罗姆尼的民意支持率仍落后于奥巴马。奥巴马在女性选民、中间选民和政治倾向摇摆的州中有更 多的支持者。     

影响美国朝核政策的内部因素

朝核问题一直是美国和朝鲜关系正常化发展的一大障碍。由于美国内部在朝核问题上的不同认知，近20年来美国从未形成过一个统一而连贯的对朝政策。这不仅直接影响了朝核问题的演变，也间接造就了东北亚局势的走向。     

从美国早期利用外资修铁路看东北亚运输主干线的筹资对策

从美国早期利用外资修铁路看东北亚运输主干线的筹资对策成方舟，钱丹一美国是一个后起的资本主义国家。在１９世纪，利用外资，特别是在铁路建设中吸引外资是美国经济迅速发展的重要原因之一，不少人甚至把铁路发展说成是１９世纪后半期美国经济发展的中心。现代铁路是１...     

日本的东北亚政策意向

就地理概念而言，日本是一个完全意义上的东北亚国家。东北亚无论在经济还是政治上都是世界战略要地。这里是亚洲经济最发达的地区。这里有海洋通往大陆的跳板；有连接东北亚与东南亚的海上走廊。这里除了日本外，还有中国、俄罗斯两个大国。美国不仅与东北亚     

八月广岛之行

今年4月．美国总统奥巴马在捷克首都布拉格发表演讲时表示，美国政府将致力于建立一个没有核武器的世界，他说，作为世界上的核大国和唯一在实战中使用过核武器的国家，美国在销毁核武器问题上负有“道义责任”。奥巴马还承诺，美国将为实现“无核武器世界”采取一些具体措施，     

中美在东北亚的战略博弈:间接路线与类型混合

奥巴马时期,美国在东北亚的"再平衡"战略已经部分地摒弃了原有的"离岸平衡"模式,转移到了"选择性介入""新自由国际主义""间接路线"三种类型混合的模式上来。"选择性介入"使美国着力在东北亚地区建立压倒中国的集中性战略优势;"新自由国际主义"促使美国在东北亚地区建立以民主国家性质为基础的同盟网络;"间接路线"则使美国在东北亚利用地区国家间的纠纷、矛盾增强同盟凝聚力,扰乱中国心理稳定,保持地区适度紧张,形成有利于美国主导地位的局势。特朗普时期,"间接路线"越来越凸显,而类型混合的"组合拳"也有明显体现。这在某种程度上不仅加深了中美之间的战略互疑,还使中国的周边环境陷入了动荡不安的状态。对此,中国应该从加强与美信息沟通、在非核心利益问题上达成战略妥协以及在共有原则上形成基本共识等三个层面明确彼此战略意图、缓释战略互疑。同时加强与美国在东北亚地区的战略协作关系,积极塑造东北亚"亲诚惠容"的周边外交高地。     

东南亚大事记（2009年6月1～30日）

1日，中共中央政治局常委、国家副主席习近平在北京会见由党主席拉斯梅率领的柬埔寨奉辛比克党代表团。 1日，美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨在新加坡参加完第八届亚洲安全大会后对菲律宾进行短暂访问，这是奥巴马就任美国总统后首位访菲的奥巴马内阁成员。     

A ‘pivot’ that never existed: America’s Asian strategy under Obama and Trump

This article argues that Donald Trump’s Asian strategy hardly marks a radical transformation from Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’. This is because the ‘pivot to Asia’ never really existed. Although Obama was successful in building legitimacy for the strategy through international norms, he failed to translate his lofty rhetoric into practice. Much of his original pivot components (building a constructive relationship with China, coordinating with Asian allies and multilateralism in the Association of South East Asian Nations and the Trans-Pacific Partnership) has either failed or did not live up to expectations. Donald Trump was adamant that the Asian pivot was a bad strategy and that he would not follow it. But although he completely discarded Obama’s legitimization of the rebalance (as Trump speaks pragmatically and does not care about international norms), in actuality he has followed many of Obama’s policies, and even improved on some of them. That being said, Trump’s ‘pivot actions’ appear to be erratic, pragmatic short-term actions rather than a meticulously planned long-term strategy similar to Obama’s rebalance (which did not materialize). Thus, while Obama failed to transform the pivot into an effective strategy, neither is Trump’s effectiveness backed by a coherent Asian strategy.     

奥巴马的外交政策与中美关系展望

奥巴马成功当选美国总统，美国政治步入“奥巴马时代”。本质上属于自由主义的奥巴马具有“现实的理想主义”外交理念，在确保美国全球霸权地位的前提下，他会在安全、经济、民主以及全球性问题等对外政策领域有所调整。奥巴马对华政策的延续性将大于变革性，有理由对未来中美关系的发展持谨慎乐观的态度。     

从“重返”到“再平衡”——奥巴马政府第二任期的东南亚政策

美国总统奥巴马2009年上台后,对东南亚表现出浓厚的兴趣并高调"重返",推出了一系列加强在东南亚存在的举措。2013年连任后,他将在未来4年继续把东南亚作为"亚太再平衡"战略的着力点。同时,奥巴马政府意识到其东南亚政策也需要进行"再平衡",应放缓军事"重返"脚步,在经济、政治、安全等领域全方位投入,均衡化、长期化地推进东南亚外交。国内财政限制、中东等地区外交挑战和外交人员人事变动等因素会对美国新一届政府的东南亚外交有所制约,但其未来政策走向仍将对中国周边外交和中美关系产生持续影响。     

The Foreign Policy Legacy of Barack Obama

Barack Obama finishes his second term with a mixed but positive foreign policy legacy. America’s global standing is much improved from the waning days of the George W. Bush administration eight years ago. Obama’s most notable achievements were the international agreement slowing Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons capability and diplomatic normalisation with Cuba. On the other side of the ledger were his failure to extricate America from military overextension in the greater Mideast and from the global policing mindset that produced that overextension. Also marring his record was his incoherent response to Syria’s deadly civil war and Libya’s collapse into anarchy following the 2011 international intervention.     

Obama's Legacy The Foreign Policy of the Late-Term Obama Administration

The year 2014 was a tipping point for the Barack Obama Administration-that was the year when it strove to forge a legacy of the Obama era but came up against challenges arising from major changes that were taking place internationally and domestically.The Administration was then focused on maintaining a fragile balance between creating this legacy and responding to these challenges.Obama stuck to his fundamental principles when dealing with overseas affairs,but he also came up with new responses.The dynamic balance struck between these two formed the basis of the global strategy of the late-term Obama Administration.The Administration's focus at this time highlights the dilemma it faced in forging a legacy.Further,the foreign policy of Obama and Trump are actually not so different;they both supported some degree of isolationism with a focus on domestic issues.     

The problems of Eastern Europe

The outlook for conflict settlement in the Middle East is gloomy, and the chances for a new round of peace talks being initiated by the parties in the region are next to zero. US President Barack Obama has announced that he wants to engage “aggressively” in favour of Middle East peace making and has taken first encouraging steps in that direction. It would be wrong, however, to assume that the US President can achieve conflict settlement largely on his own. Europeans should therefore rethink their policy approaches -- above all, how to deal with Hamas, the Gaza Strip and how to push the peace process forward -- and seek a more effective division of labour and coordination with the Obama administration.     

《道草》与日本近代知识分子的生存困境

夏目漱石的自传小说《道草》是作者根据1903年从英国留学归来之后的生活体验而写成。小说主人公健三是困守书斋的知识分子形象。本文着眼于人物内在的精神层面，从欲望与伦理意识两个方面入手，分析“无余裕”状态下人物内部世界与外部世界的矛盾冲突，考察日本近代知识分子在与“世俗”的现实世界交往中的自我认识和自我否定。     

Diplomatic and Security Strategies of the Obama Administration： Has the ＂Time of Change＂ Come？

It is of great significance to study the diplomacy and security strategies of the Obama administration which took office on 20th January 2009, not only because of the current global financial crisis but also because of Obama＇s ＂politics of change＂, a slogan raised by him in the campaign. How to lead America out of the seemingly ＂still deteriorating domestic financial and economic dilemma is not only the most important criterion for judging Obama＇s governance capability but also the biggest obstacle affecting the new Democrat administration＇s domestic and foreign policies. To analyze the adjustments of the Obama administration＇s foreign and security policies, we must focus our attention on how it will take corresponding measures to overcome the financial crisis and how to put its campaign slogan ＂politics of change＂ into practice. In retrospect of the Obama administration＇s first three-month performance, the ＂politics of change＂ promised by him has dramatically evolved into the ＂diplomacy of change＂ first. In the following sections, we will thoroughly analyze the trend of the new administration＇s diplomatic and security strategies on the basis of its first one-hundred-day performance.     

Global Governance Reform

President Barack Obama has trumpeted a ＂new era of engagement＂ for the United States. The central components of his strategy include a world order characterized by peaceful accommodation between established and rising powers; the collective management of transnational problems; and the overhaul of international institutions to reflect these shifting power dynamics and the new global agenda. Placing less emphasis than his predecessor on the pursuit of American primacy, Obama envisions--indeed, insists-that other global powers assume new responsibilities. Notwithstanding its multilateral instincts, though, the Obama administration is limited in its practical ability to promote and embrace sweeping reforms to global governance. Therefore, rather than casting its lot entirely with universal organizations like the United Nations, the United States will adopt a pragmatic approach to international cooperation that combines formal institutions with more flexible partnerships to achieve US national interests. The balance sheet for Obama＇s first year in office underscores both the opportunities for and the constraints on global governance reform in the current geopolitical environment.     

Change Nobody Believes In: Obama and the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict

Despite the promise of ‘change’ in President Barack Obama's early dealings with the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the policy that has since emanated from the White House was in fact commensurate with those of preceding administrations. Rather than heralding a new direction for American engagement with the conflict, the Obama Administration had displayed more patterns of continuity than change in its dealings with both parties. Specifically, by continuing to act as “Israel's attorney” during negotiations, the Obama team had in effect negated the president's early pledges to act as an honest broker in the conflict. In assessing the (in)effectiveness of the Administration's management of the Israeli–Palestinian issue, it seems that on-going mediation efforts to revive the moribund peace process have exhausted their potential. Arbitration may be explored as a more effective method to resolve the Israeli–Palestinian territorial dispute.