伊拉克战后的政治及社会变化

伊拉克战争对其国家政治发展所产生的影响是颠覆性的，它所带来的社会变化是天翻地覆的。伊拉克新政府的产生不同于一般意义上的改朝换代，而是彻底改变了国家的政治基础。伊拉克战后国家的政治结构发生了重大变化。在关国的主导下，什叶派登上了国家最高统治舞台，从而使伊拉克社会统治基础和结构发生了重大变化。萨达姆政府的倒台破坏了国家统一的政治格局，释放了分裂的空间，从而造成国家新的政治统一格局难以建立起来。伊拉克战争催生了社会重大变革，出现了新的统治阶级和阶层，即什叶派和库尔德人成为了新兴的领导阶层，这个新阶层与旧阶层的矛盾极为深刻。     

两种主张的较量与战后德国经济发展

战后德国经济是在左和右,即主张国家干预和自由经济,这两股社会和政治势力交互作用下发展起来的。前者主要由社民党体现,后者由基民盟/社民盟主张。最初这两股势力形成了有效互补,使得德国社会和经济进入高发展期,后来由于这两股势力彼此抗衡过度,失落了有效互补,社会体制失去活力,经济和社会进入发展低迷期。如今,德国经济一直挣扎在这样的发展困境中。     

试论拉丁美洲政治进程的发展

战后,拉丁美洲的社会经济结构发生了深刻变化。许多拉美国家已从半封建半殖民地社会进入发展中资本主义社会,还有一些拉美国家正在开始这种过渡。与此同时,这一地区政治进程的发展也取得了重大突破:资产阶级现代政治思潮取代封建专制主义而成为社会的统治意识;民族资产阶级基本上取代大地主、大资产阶级而在国家政治生活中发挥主导作     

世界局势正在发生巨大的变化

这几个月来,世界局势正在发生战后以来前所未有的巨大变化。其速度之迅猛、动荡之激烈、情况之复杂,都是人们预料不及的,但有其深刻的原因。苏联的困难和东欧的变化已冲破了原来的雅尔塔格局和东西方的界限,造成了欧洲和世界局势的尖锐化和复杂化。美国的日子也不好过,与日本的经济摩擦正在加剧,德国统一的前景也令人生畏。缓和、对话的趋势将继续发展,但不稳定和动荡不安的因素也在增加,加剧了国际局势的矛盾性和尖锐性。     

试析德国面临的“领导力困境”

德国是欧盟事实上的“领头羊”,但目前并不善于发挥领导力,在主导应对欧盟内外挑战的过程中遭遇诸多难题.德国面临的“领导力困境”很大程度上是由德国独特的国民性格和历史经历所致,一定程度上也与其尚难快速适应当前国际形势发生剧变有关.德国对此亦有所认识,正在积极调整政策,试图以更灵活的手段推动欧洲一体化、参与国际事务.未来德国将逐步适应自身角色以及环境的变化,并展现独特的领导力.     

德国人是如何反思二战的

今年是世界反法西斯胜利和第二次世界大战结束70周年,德国作为二战的发起国和战败国,与许多国家一样开展各种纪念活动。在各地举行的不同形式的纪念活动中,德国政府和各界政治领导人纷纷发表讲话,反省历史。总理默克尔表示:德国不能简单地和过去的纳粹历史"划清界限",更不应忘却历史,不应保持历史"已经过去了,没必要再提"的态度,重申德国人有责任稳重地、敏感地、熟练地解决德国人在纳粹时代所犯下的罪行问题。战后以来,德国对二战不断深刻和彻底的反思,赢得了国际社会的认可和尊重。但对于德国人来说,这种集体认同的反思,并非是一帆风顺和一蹴而就的,而是痛苦和深刻的。作为两次世界大战的发动者和失败者,德国战后精神层面的反省和社会文化层面的转型着实令人称赞。     

战后东南亚国家的华侨归化政策及其影响

战后,东南亚国家的华侨社会发生了深刻的变化,其中一个主要特点就是华侨已多数归化于当地国家,成为当地国的公民,华侨社会的这巨大变化,同战后东南亚国家对华侨采取加速归化的政策和步骤有密切关系。本文拟就战后东南亚国家对华侨归化战略、政策及其对华侨社会变化的影响作一些探讨。战后东南亚国家的华侨归化的战略和政策战后,东南亚各国先后摆脱了殖民统治,获得了政治独立。东南亚的民族主义在反殖、反帝斗争,争取民族独立中是具有进步性质的。但在独立以后对待异族采取盲目排     

德国参与地区性和国际性组织探析

区域机制和区域间合作是联结国家机制和国际机制的纽带.二战后,为了解决欧洲的"德国问题",欧洲建立了包括经济、军事、合作安全等多层面的地区机制,这些机制从不同层面促进了欧洲社会发展、地区安全和和平.基于德国的历史现实、地缘环境和国家利益,战后德国积极参与地区性机制建制,推进欧洲一体化.本文从以下几个方面对德国参与地区性和国际性组织进行探析:战后德国对国际法的重新认知,联邦德国参与区域、国际组织的内外动因,统一德国的区域机制建制观,德国对国际组织政治议题的推动、欧洲区域机制的变迁.     

变化中的欧洲格局

自1989年以来,欧洲形势发生了重大的转折性变化:波兰和匈牙利等东欧国家形势发生剧变后纷纷进行西方式改革并疏离苏联,两个德国在不到一年的时间内实现了统一,北约和华约两大军事集团发表了“不再互为敌人”的《联合声明》,欧安会通过了具有历史意义的《巴黎新欧洲宪章》,经互会和华约组织已分别于今年6月28日和7月1日宣布解散。上述变化,特别是德国统一和华约解体,标志着欧洲在战后形成的均势已经打破,开始进入从旧格局向新格局转换的过渡时期。欧、美、苏为争夺欧洲的主导权展开了激烈的角逐,新的欧洲格局将在斗争中逐渐形成。     

中国经济的稳定增长:国际经验的启示

中国自1978年改革以来，除了一些短暂的曲折外，经济得到了非常稳定地增长。过去的20年虽然不长，却对世界经济长期增长起着非常重要的作用，而且对提高其非常庞大的人口的生活水平还意犹未尽。中国正在成为世界上高度工业化的国家之一，但还不是工业最发达的国家，也不处于工业发展的成熟阶段。从历史的角度观察中国的经济，应该指出的是，早在二战以后，出现了两次发展“奇迹”。“德国奇迹”和“日本奇迹”是从战后的废墟中重建原来就已经相当发达的产业经济（德国比日本要发达一些），但是强大的发展势头并不持久。两国的经济在二十世纪…     

Rethinking the Relationship between Inclusive Institutions and Political Violence

Abstract

In this paper we empirically reexamine the debate over the conflict reducing properties of inclusive political institutions. We examine the purported violence reducing effects of proportional representation (PR) electoral systems, parliamentarism, and federalism, conditioning their effects on ethnic fractionalization and whether a country is conflict prone. In other words, are these institutions more effective in countries that have already experienced major conflict or are they more effective in preventing conflict in countries that have not experienced major conflict? Using a data set that includes a sample of 81 countries and 2488 observations from 1973 to 2018, we test the conditional effects of proportional representation electoral systems, parliamentarism and federalism conditioning these by ethnicity and whether the country has experienced a major conflict (i.e., civil war). We find that these institutions have little effect on reducing the number of riots or political deaths, but PR electoral systems reduces ethnic violence when ethnic fractionalization is high. On the other hand PR electoral systems and parliamentarism reduce ethnic violence in conflict prone countries, but federalism increases the likelihood of ethnic violence. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to arguments regarding inclusive power sharing arrangements and violence in post conflict environments.     

From Media Attention to Negotiated Peace: Human Rights Reporting and Civil War Duration

Violations of human rights in the context of a conflict have in recent years received an increasing amount of attention from the international media. Yet how such media attention influences conflict remains understudied and, a priori, uncertain. On the one hand, media coverage of human rights abuses may constitute “naming and shaming” that might temper hostilities. On the other hand, such coverage might spark intransigence and complicate negotiations among conflicting parties, thereby hindering rather than hastening peace. This article tries to adjudicate among these and other possibilities by exploring how media reporting on human rights abuses influences the development of conflicts. The analysis reveals that such reporting is associated with shorter conflicts and negotiated agreements between fighting parties.     

拉美经济增长方式转变与现代化进程的曲折性

经济增长方式的转变是现代化步入更高阶段的客观要求,若适时转变,会加速现代化步伐,否则将会延缓现代化进程。通过考察拉美地区60年的经济增长后发现,由于在某些阶段拉美国家错失转变经济增长方式的良机,造成一系列结构性失衡,最终以债务危机的形式消化失衡后果,进而导致现代化进程一路曲折。21世纪以来拉美国家通过发展战略、经济政策和局部结构的调整,在促进经济增长方面取得一定成效,使其平稳、顺利地渡过了2009年国际金融危机的冲击。不过,应对未来挑战,拉美国家在转变经济增长方式上仍有很长的路要走,如促进出口多元化,提高出口产品的国际竞争力,加强与亚太国家的产业内贸易;通过产业政策促进产业结构有序升级;加强人力资本投资和技术研发,等等。     

Postwar (West) German–Romanian Relations: Expanding Brubaker's Analytic Triad

This article revisits Rogers Brubaker's well-known triadic nexus, consisting of national minority, nationalizing state, and kin-state, and interrogates its applicability to the study of German minorities in Central and Eastern Europe since the second half of the 20th century. It does that by looking at German–Romanian relations after the Second World War, arguing that the migration of Romanian Germans to (West) Germany led to the transformation of Brubaker's triadic nexus into a quadratic nexus. More precisely, the field of Romanian Germans in (West) Germany has to be added to the three already existing fields. Furthermore, the extension of Brubaker's model allows in effect for a more comprehensive analysis of postwar West German–Eastern European relationships.     

Between entrenchment,reform and transformation: ethnicity and Lebanon's consociational democracy

Consociationalism has become a key institutional mechanism for managing conflict after civil war. Proponents argue that a period of consociational influence can contribute to the erosion of ethnic cleavages and even a society where ethnicity is depoliticized. Critics, however, are sceptical of this claim and argue that consociationalism institutionalizes ethnic identities and stymies the transition to a healthier democracy. In response, proponents outline a liberal model of consociationalism which limits the pre-determination of ethnicity in social and political structures. Yet, problematically, consociations in postwar societies often provide guarantees of ethnic representation in order to entice belligerents to abandon violence for democracy. This issue of transitioning from a corporate consociation to a more liberal form requires sustained analysis. This paper examines this conundrum by examining contemporary Lebanese consociationalism. Given that ethnicity is central to debates about revising consociationalism, via qualitative interviews with Lebanese political elites and civil society activists, the paper analyses how these subjects conceptualize ethnicity in contrasting ways which generate different approaches to consociationalism but which ultimately frustrate meaningful reform. It does this by exploring various debates to entrench, reform or transform Lebanese consociationalism.     

Partners but not Allies: West European Co-operation with China, 1978–1982

The late 1970s’ decline of bipolar détente and economic problems in the developed world, on the one hand, and the Sino–Soviet conflict and the start of the Chinese reform programme, on the other, led to converging interests between the People’s Republic of China and Western Europe. Against this background, this analysis compares how the governments of Britain, France, and West Germany pursued their China policies between 1978 and 1982. Whilst supporting the PRC’s reform process in multiple ways, shared strategic objectives were not sufficient for the creation of a de facto alliance.     

An Economic Bridgehead: Weimar Germany's Attempt to Mediate Between Soviet Russia and the United States

Between 1919 and 1926 Weimar Germany pursued a foreign policy that sought to place Germany in a position to mediate between Soviet Russia and the United States. In particular, Berlin was eager to act as a mediator in the economic and commercial relations between these two powers. Germany hoped that such a policy would align it with two Powers that, like itself, were hostile to the Versailles order. Berlin also hoped that such a relationship would contribute to German postwar economic recovery and thereby to Berlin's re-emergence as a Great Power in the aftermath of its defeat in 1918. This policy culminated in 1925–1926 with Berlin's efforts to arrange for American financing of a 300 million Mark credit to the Soviet Union. Ultimately this and other efforts failed as result of Germany's own financial weakness, Washington's refusal to cooperate with Berlin's initiatives, and the nature of the Soviet economic system.     

From Human to Workers' Rights: The Emergence of a Migrant Workers' Union Movement in Korea

Migrant workers in Korea occupy a low social position because of their objective economic position within the division of labour, hegemonic norms of racial homogeneity, and government policy that seeks to extract the labour power from migrant workers without recognising their substantive human and workers' rights. Despite the existence of an official system for the rotational employment of so-called “industrial trainees”, the dominant system in Korea has been a tacitly accepted market for illegal labour. Despite the emergence of a dynamic civil society movement to support migrant workers, their challenge to the prevailing cultural norms in society and their manifestation in government policy has been somewhat limited. However, a migrant-worker-centred trade union movement has also emerged which, although still in its early stages, has more directly begun to challenge these norms and to achieve a common identity with the Korean working class.     

Sustainability and peace building: a key challenge

The overarching challenge facing the growing number of international peace-building interventions is to achieve sustainable peace. This paper illustrates this proposition through a brief investigation of the situation in Timor-Leste as the UN mission withdraws at the five-year state-building mark, and in Haiti as a ninth UN mission is established. Adopting the view that participatory democratic governance will best ensure long-term peace, the paper maintains that to build sustainable peace requires transformation on three interrelated fronts: (a) transformation of the society from one that resorts to violence to one that resorts to political means to resolve conflict, requiring that the elite negotiate and that there should be widespread social dialogue and reconciliation; (b) reform of the governance framework to seek to ensure both that a negotiated governance arrangement between parties prevents future conflict and the adoption of basic democratic governance; and (c) the creation of meaningful institutions that will be sustainable after the mission leaves. These institutions cannot be imposed from outside, but must be bodies that re able to perform their core function and are committed to doing so.     

The Japanese consumer finance market and its institutional changes since the 1980s

Abstract

We assert, in this article, that the joint transformation of public perception about households’ over-indebtedness and financial deregulation had important implications on the government decision to reform overall consumer credit between 2005 and 2010. On the one hand, the development of collective actions by groups of lawyers to defend borrowers from moneylenders’ abusive practices represents a source of change in the public opinion about over-indebted individuals in the context of long economic stagnation. A systematic press article analysis from 1977 to 2006 shows that the rising number of these collective actions since the early 1990s may have gradually increased the political salience of social issues related to the unsecure loan market. On the other hand, financial deregulation has been a source of change by allowing banks to enter the consumer finance market since the early 2000s. Banks entry into this market transformed the logic of complementarity among traditional consumer credit actors (Shinpan, credit card companies and sarakin) in a general context of legal consumers’ protection reinforcement. Thus, evolution of Japanese consumer finance's regulation is particularly relevant to illustrate the forces of institutional change and its consequences.