Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., over-confidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.     

Reflexivity,participatory art,and the failures of monist representation

ABSTRACT

This essay engages in a dual-disciplinary theorizing of reflexivity as response to crises of democratic representation. We trace this crises through the parallel lenses of democratic theory and art history. As political theorists explore alternative representations of ‘the people,’ contemporary artists have developed their own responses to the crisis of monist representation. In both state institutions and in participatory art – and in the theorizing of both – we find the rejection of monist representations of ‘the people’ and the embracement of pluralist, partial, and proximate representations. These public reflexive spaces give voice to new, partial publics, and call attention to past and present exclusions.     

泰国国家发展规划的发展历程与解读

泰国经济与社会国家发展规划(以下简称国家发展规划),是二战后泰国政府为获得西方经济援助制定的国家发展总体规划。长期以来,泰国仅将国家发展规划视为获得西方援助的工具,而忽视国家发展规划对国家发展的指导作用。《泰王国2017年宪法》首次以宪法的形式规定国家"二十年国家战略"、国家发展规划为泰国国家总体发展规划,政府政策和预算必须依照国家发展规划制定。这标志着第十二份国家发展规划真正成为泰国国家发展的蓝图,同时也是泰国政府未来5年内推动国家发展的重要指引。     

North Korea and the East Asian Security order: competing views on what South Korea ought to do

This article investigates South Korean views on how to deal with the two major security issues regarding North Korea: its nuclear threat and regime instability. In this Special Section, the article analyzes the ongoing debate in South Korea over the government's policy toward North Korea in regard to these two issues. It argues that uncertainties about these two major issues are shaping the regional order in East Asia. In particular, the different levels of cooperation between South Korea and the United States may affect the regional security order in East Asia. In analyzing policy options available to South Korea, the riskiest option would be to employ early preemptive attacks and accelerate the collapse of North Korea given the security dilemma-driven action?reaction in East Asia. Given that the role of China has become the most crucial factor in dealing with North Korea, the most promising strategy would be to reinforce guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence and prompt a soft-landing unification.     

The Peer Context and the Development of the Perpetration of Adolescent Dating Violence

The peer context is a central focus in research on adolescent risk behaviors but few studies have investigated the role of the peer context in the perpetration of adolescent dating violence. This longitudinal study examined between-subjects and within-person contemporaneous and lagged effects of peer attributes, measured with social network analyses, on trajectories of dating violence perpetration and determined if effects varied by grade and/or sex of the adolescent. Data are from adolescents who participated in a five-wave panel study beginning when they were in 7 through 9th grade and ending when they were in 10 through 12th grade (n = 3,412); half were male, 40.5 % were white, 49.9 % were black and 10.4 % were of another race/ethnicity. Significant between-subjects effects indicate that adolescents who typically have friends who use dating violence, and girls who are typically high in social status, are at increased risk for using dating violence throughout adolescence. Adolescents who typically have high quality friendships and girls who typically have friends with pro-social beliefs are at decreased risk for using dating violence throughout adolescence. Significant within-person contemporaneous effects indicate that both boys and girls reported lower levels of dating violence than usual at times when they had more friends with pro-social beliefs, and reported higher levels of dating violence than usual at times when they had higher social status. None of the lagged effects were significant and none of the effects varied across grade. These findings suggest that the peer context plays an important role in the development of the perpetration of adolescent dating violence.     

Rethinking public policy in agriculture: lessons from history,distant and recent

This article reviews the histories of agricultural policy in 11 of today's developed countries between the late-nineteenth and the mid-twentieth century and in 10 developing and transition economies since the mid-twentieth century. After discussing the theoretical limitations of the prevailing orthodoxy, the article discusses the history of a wide range of agricultural policies concerning issues like land, knowledge (e.g., research, extension), credit, physical inputs (e.g., irrigation, transport, fertilizers, seeds), farm income stability (e.g., price stabilisation measures, insurances, trade protection), marketing, and processing. The article ends by discussing the policy lessons that may be learned from these historical experiences.     

兵团上市公司竞争力评价

竞争力是衡量上市公司发展状况的重要因素。本文运用SAS9.1软件,对2008年兵团上市公司若干财务数据进行因子分析,分别对兵团各个上市公司的竞争力进行了评价。     

广东省猪源葡萄球菌耐药性分析及多重耐药基因cfr的流行现状

为了解2013-2017年间广东省猪源葡萄球菌的耐药情况及多重耐药基因cfr的流行现状,采集生猪养殖场和交易市场猪鼻腔拭子分离葡萄球菌,采用琼脂稀释法测定分离菌株对14种抗菌药物的敏感性,并用PCR检测mecA和cfr基因的携带情况。结果显示,在采集的4099份样品中分离到葡萄球菌1485株,其中金黄色葡萄球菌173株。猪源葡萄球菌对红霉素、四环素、泰妙菌素、克林霉素、沃尼妙林和氟苯尼考耐药严重,耐药率分别为91.0%、90.2%、87.7%、84.6%、84.6%及82.0%,对利福平和利奈唑胺相对敏感,未发现万古霉素耐药菌株;庆大霉素、四环素、红霉素和环丙沙星的耐药率呈现逐年上升的趋势。在1485株葡萄球菌中,mecA和cfr的检出率分别为39.9%和12.3%。cfr阳性菌株常携带多种耐药基因,cfr基因的遗传背景也呈现多样化。结果表明,广东省猪源葡萄球菌的耐药情况严重,cfr的检出率高,应加强养殖业中抗菌药物的规范和合理使用,减缓耐药性的产生和传播。     

伊朗宪政革命的思想背景

20世纪初的伊朗宪政革命,既是一场对伊朗近现代历史影响深远的政治运动,也是历时近一个世纪的思想文化启蒙运动的历史高潮。它是在西方教育渗透、早期教育改革、文学改革、新闻出版兴起和西方民主宪政思想传播等思想文化领域发生重大变化的背景下发生的。这些社会思潮的变化对伊朗近现代历史变迁影响至为深远。     

3种哌嗪类药物滥用研究进展

哌嗪类药物N-苄基哌嗪(BZP)、1-(3-氯苯基)哌嗪(mCPP)、1-(3-三氟甲基苯基)哌嗪(TFMPP)具有与MDMA相似的兴奋作用和致幻作用,成了迷幻药的替代品,在各国滥用的报道逐年增多。本文综述了3种哌嗪类药物在各国的管制、滥用情况、毒理作用、检测方法,希望为司法部门打击此类药物犯罪提供参考和借鉴。