中国在朝鲜核问题上的作用及其受局限的原因分析

自 2002年 10月以来,朝核问题一直成为国际社会关注的热点问题。“三方会谈”以及 3次“六方会谈”的成功召开把朝核问题纳入到一个多边框架下解决,对于这个重大成果,中国所起的重要作用是国际社会有目共睹的。尽管中国在朝核问题上发挥了其他国家所不可替代的作用,但是,从朝核问题的发展过程上可以看出,中国的作用也受到很大局限。     

Essence of Negotiation: Understanding Appeasement and “The Great Munich Stereotype”

The relative merits of rational choice and behavioral approaches to the study of negotiation continue to be hotly debated. This article tests qualitative postdictions (assertions or deductions about something in the past) from these paradigms as well as the alternative approach of new institutional theory against the extensive record of negotiation process, contractual form, and contract implementation from the Paris Peace Conference of 1919. I find the incomplete relational form of the peace treaty to be consistent with the behavioral and new institutional concepts and find that only behavioral theory can explain how unilateral German moves unraveled the treaty during the 1930s. But the historical record further reveals that the close fit between the behavioral paradigm and these events is more than coincidence. I also discuss the role of conference participants, particularly John Maynard Keynes and Walter Lippmann, in establishing the basis for modern behavioral science. The behavioral paradigm emerged from efforts to understand and fix serious policy mistakes such as those made in the peace negotiations. The study of human error was intended to serve as the basis for broad‐based organizational solutions. Finally, I discuss the impact of “the Munich stereotype” on such recent events as the planning for the American invasion and reconstruction of Iraq; such examples suggest continued imperfections in the system of organized intelligence that has actually evolved in the United States.     

防止核扩散的两大难题——以印关核关系为例

全球核不扩散面临着困境,国际社会在目标上的不确定性和体制上的低效性是当今世界核不扩散面临的难题,而各国利益的不一致是其根本原因,它也使这一国际行动的未来充满变数。美国与印度在核关系上的变化以及近年来热议的核合作,也无法回避这些难题。     

FANTASY OR FICTION: MARCHING OF THE DRAGON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

This article looks at the South China Sea dispute and its impact in international relations. It analyses why the Southeast Asian states are highly sovereignty sensitive, and how such sensitivity has made non-intervention the bedrock of managing their foreign policies. China has long viewed the near seas as regions of geostrategic interest, and thus the SCS is not an exception. On the one hand it brings hope and prosperity, and on the other uncertainty and threat. At the end, the article argues whether China’s assertive position regarding other countries’ sovereignty claims in the Arctic might undermine its own position in contested areas like the SCS, and suggests that China will at least have to learn how to share and bear (term coined by the author) as a member of the international community.     

习近平主席访韩与中韩成熟性战略关系发展构想

中国国家领导人习近平2014年7月访问韩国,以及中韩建立成熟的战略合作伙伴关系,标志着双方关系进入了一个新的高度。这种关系发展现在处于一种非常有利的时机与地区环境中,要确保这种关系成为真正的战略合作伙伴关系,双方领导人、学界、舆论界需要有一种超越朝鲜半岛的远见与远景,把动力、机遇转化为互利与可持续的合作进程。这种努力包括:在务实认识朝鲜无核化问题面临的困境基础上,寻找协调解决问题的中短期现实目标;积极协调与合理平衡中美韩、中日韩两组三边关系;严峻面对日本右倾化对东北亚地区秩序产生的战略危害,并共同采取应对措施;以战略性、客观性的胆识抓住中国"丝绸之路经济带"与"亚洲基础设施银行"的倡议,推动中韩在地区框架内的全方位经济合作。     

新一轮朝核危机中朝鲜的强制外交政策与中国战略对策——基于内容分析法的朝鲜外务省发言分析

2012年2月23～24日，朝美第三次高级别会谈在中国举行，双方同意同时采取一系列措施建立信任，以改善朝美关系。但是随后朝鲜两次发射卫星、进行核试验并宣布永久退出六方会谈，朝核危机再次升级。采用内容分析法剖析2012年2月至2013年5月的朝鲜外务省发言，可以发现，朝鲜可能采取导致危机进一步升级的行动，中国在处理和解决朝核问题中的战略对策，应以坚持半岛无核化作为首要目标，将坚持六方会谈机制作为首选对策。     

条约冲突的基本问题及其解决方法

条约冲突一方面表明了当代国际法旺盛的生命力,另一方面也会对国际法的进一步发展产生消极影响,因此研究条约冲突及其解决对国际法治建设有着积极意义。条约冲突的产生与国际法不成体系有着密切的因果联系。在各种类型的冲突中,有的可以采用诸如特别法优先原则来处理,有的可以通过条约解释规则加以消弭,有的则可以设置明确的冲突条款来避免。国际法的不成体系,使得解决条约冲突的方法也可能是不成体系的。综合运用各种冲突解决方法,是国际法对解决条约冲突的必然要求。     

Terra incognita: Migration of the elderly and the nuclear hardship hypothesis

This article deals with out-migration of elderly in a 19th-century rural society undergoing major economical and social changes. The first aim is to shed light on the particularities of the old-age migration, concentrating on out-migration because the migratory balance stayed negative during the entire period of observation. The migration intensity and the destination areas give a background and reopen the question of the geographical immobility of the elderly. The second goal is to identify some variables that incited some people to leave at an age when neither job nor the will to start a family could justify it. This search for explanatory factors of old-age mobility operates from a thematic scope, that of the nuclear hardship hypothesis.

This article differs from demographic analyses on aging that were generally made at an aggregate level, based on national statistics. It also differs from the implicit or explicit assumption of old-age immobility found in family history studies. In the Pays de Herve, family relations and the position of the oldest in the household determined standard of living more than economic conjunctures or the social structure.     

The dams of Northern Sudan and the policy of demographic engineering

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the deteriorating situation in Northern Sudan linked to policies of demographic engineering, embedded in plans for the further construction of dams along the Nile River in the North by the Government of Sudan. Although the generation of power and agricultural irrigation are the declared purpose of the dams, the fact is, these dams will, as past dam constructions have, cause a massive displacement of the Nubian, Manasir and Amri-Hamdab people far from their ancestral lands. With the collaboration of the Egyptian government the areas vacated will be repopulated with Egyptian peasants, as part of both governments’ plan to alter the demographics of North Sudan.     

An unfulfilling partnership: Ukraine and the West, 1991–2001

The political crisis in Ukraine in early 2001 and then the terrorist attacks against the US and the resulting dramatic change of international setting have sealed the trend that had emerged much earlier: the once promising partnership between Ukraine and the West has ended up in mutual unhappiness. As the West is discovering new ‘geopolitical pivots’ in the aftermath of 11 September, Ukraine has almost disappeared from the radar screen of Western attention. Yet for good reasons what happens in Ukraine, a currently uncertain and weakened country with a poor international reputation, still matters for the West. There has always been a close link between Ukraine's transition and Western attitudes towards Ukraine. This might be the moment to think afresh about past and future Western policies vis‐à‐vis Ukraine.