The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.     

Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

Administrative reform assistance and democracy promotion: exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s public administration reform principles for the neighbourhood countries

International donors, particularly the European Union (EU), vehemently endorse institution-building and public administration reform (PAR) in their work on democracy support. Still, the linkages between externally sponsored reform and advancement of democratic governance in beneficiary countries constitute a blind spot in our understanding of democratization. This article contributes to examining this relationship by exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s PAR portfolio for the neighbourhood countries. The aim of the article is to focus attention on the PA–democracy interface in the study of democracy promotion by elaborating a conceptual framework for exploring the nature of externally supported administrative reforms and the substantive content of democracy being advanced. By using the OECD/SIGMA’s (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Support for Improvement in Governance and Management) PAR framework for the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries as a case study, this article demonstrates how the EU’s approach to programming PAR accommodates elements from several formats of democratic governance while the conceptualization of the democratic effects of the PAR principles remains vague. The article concludes by highlighting the need for closer examination of the potentials and limits of external PAR strategies in democracy support, and for attuning the EU’s PAR design to its democratic implications.     

涉黑涉恶案件审判警务保障风险解析与防控

涉黑涉恶案件审判的特殊性决定了司法警察警务保障风险表现为:未能将被告人安全、及时押解至法院,未能对羁押待审被告人实施有效看守、管理,未能保障法庭的正常审判秩序和人员安全,未能规范执行警务。为减少涉黑涉恶案件审判警务保障风险,司法警察应树立预防为主、艺术决策、多举并进、以警为本的防控理念,并加强远程押解、院外审判看管和值庭、规范化执法风险的防控措施。     

互联网融资创新、风险及其法律规制——以P2P网贷平台为分析视角

互联网金融作为传统金融自发改革、创新的产物,具有传统金融无可比拟的优势,但它既具备金融领域的固有风险,也具有互联网先进技术与传统金融结合而生成的新风险。对于这种风险,应该坚持"非法律规范—行政法规范—刑法规范"的调整位阶,以保护金融创新为监管的出发点。对于致力于信用担保的P2P网贷平台,应该对其资金池引入第三方托管,不应一概以非法吸收公众存款罪取缔。金融创新背景下,对金融管理秩序的垄断性保护失去了其正当性,对于非法吸收公众存款罪的解释,应该以公众财产权益这一法益为指导。     

巨灾保险试点问题解析及对策研究

巨灾保险试点运营以来,在取得了一定的巨灾风险管理成效的同时困难也不断出现,因此,如何进一步推行巨灾保险,是一个亟待解决的问题。本文在论述以巨灾保险转嫁巨灾风险与自助、互助、公助的理念相契合,巨灾风险之"公众性"和"社群性"决定了巨灾保险政府介入的必要性和有限性,巨灾保险与大数法则的矛盾及其化解,巨灾保险试点运营存在的问题与政府介入的维度、方式及回弹性的基础上,对推行巨灾保险提出以下对策建议:设立"巨灾保险救助基金"和"巨灾储备金"并采取三级联保方式;推广和创新巨灾保险产品;通过扩大试点范围和强制保险等措施,解决巨灾保险试点运营存在的具体问题。     

Preventing Corruption Risk in Legislation: Evidence from Russia,Moldova, and Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT

Corruption risk assessment of draft laws and other normative acts is a relatively new instrument in the anti-corruption strategies implemented by developed nations, countries in transition, and the developing world. In connection with this, any practical experience accumulated in this area presents obvious interest. The analysis of such experience may allow to identify what works and what does not work in introducing the practices of anti-corruption screening of draft laws and other normative acts in various environments and settings, as well as contribute to dissemination of best practices in the countries of the region and elsewhere.

This article seeks to analyze and demonstrate the extent of practical implementation of corruption risk assessment of draft and enacted legislation in three post-communist countries, the problems encountered and solutions identified. Proceeding from this analysis, certain recommendations for practitioners in this field are formulated.     

Managing Social Risk in China Local Administration: An Examination of SSRA Initiative

Social Stability Risk Assessment (SSRA) sponsored by the local administration is perceived as a socially defined risk-coping initiative since it became mandatory in China. This article observes and unravels SSRA practices by selecting Xuzhou municipality as a sample case. Findings show that local SSRA is operated by the tridimensional mechanism and antecedents of its effectiveness in enforcement are linked with multiple elements of administrative supports. The findings contribute to a full understanding of SSRA in mainland China where there is no electoral democratic regime, and provide implications for developing countries alike. Some recommendations are proposed as a potential driver of these results.     

对外依存与中国外交的战略自主

改革开放四十年,中国经济得到长足发展,与此同时也带来了对外依存度偏高的风险,而经济上的对外依存与战略自主之间存在密切的相互影响关系。回顾一些大国的对外战略可以看出,相互依存直接影响对外战略,对外依存度过高会导致战略自主性的下降,从而极大缩减战略选项,甚至在一些关键节点不得不诉诸战略冒险。中国的对外依存与战略自主的关系也经历了复杂的演变过程。新中国成立后,中国一度采取"一边倒"的对外政策,在一定程度上影响了战略自主。改革开放之后,中国经济对外部市场、技术和能源的依存度不断上升,也在一定程度上限制了中国对外战略的全面自主发展。因此,中国的大国战略必须在外向与内顾、国际与国内之间保持适当的平衡,更为合理地协调对外依存与战略自主之间的关系,将全面深度改革开放与全方位外交布局紧密联系在一起。唯其如此,中国未来的大国外交才能行稳致远。