The stability of punishment: A follow-up of Blumstein's hypothesis

Because of the intrinsic relativity of social tolerance toward crime, the rate of punishment that a given society inflicts on its criminals is expected to remain relatively constant over the long term, in spite of social changes and increasing or decreasing crime rates. This paper reconstructs the penal behavior of Montreal's criminal justice from 1845 to 1913 and finds that the stability hypothesis, all things considered, works quite well and has much heuristic value. Three problems, somewhat bypassed in the existing literature, are dealt with here: the reliability of penal statistical time series, the direct empirical evidence of stabilization processes, and a rather crude way of measuring prison punishment. It is suggested, furthermore, that the stability hypothesis include in its future argument the impact of increasing policing and that it be confined tentatively to modern western societies.     

死后血浆和溶血样本中IgE的稳定性

目的探究死后血浆和溶血样本中免疫球蛋白E(immunoglobulin E,IgE)经过不同保存条件及冻融处理后的稳定性。方法选取39例死后48h内非冷冻尸体的心血样本,其中20例取血浆样本,19例取全血制成溶血样本。将样本置于-20℃、4℃、25℃条件下保存28d及-80℃条件下保存1年以探究IgE在不同保存条件下的稳定性。利用5次反复冻融处理样本探究死后血浆及溶血样本IgE的冻融稳定性。应用电化学发光法检测处理前后血浆和溶血样本中IgE的浓度。结果血浆样本中IgE在-20℃、4℃、25℃3种保存条件下的降解率接近,28d后降解率均值在15%左右,相同条件下溶血样本中IgE降解速度快于血浆(P<0.05),并且在25℃条件下降解率高于另外两种(P<0.05)。血浆样本于-80℃冷冻保存1年后的浓度与冷冻前相比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),而溶血样本在-80℃冷冻保存1年后浓度有所降低(P<0.05)。死后血浆和溶血样本在反复冻融5次后检测结果与冻融前相比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论死后血浆及溶血样本中IgE具有良好的冻融稳定性。IgE在死后血浆样本中的稳定性优于溶血样本,因此在实际案例中建议及早分离血浆保存待测。     

The foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state: South Africa as case study

With South Africa having declared itself a developmental state, this paper posits that if a developmental state is one that drives development, then the foreign policy of such a state should pursue development as one of its most important goals. Similarly the diplomatic corps of such a state should prioritise economic, commercial, para- and public diplomacy as drivers of diplomacy. In answering the question, ‘What should be the foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state?’, the authors, through an exploratory approach, seek to analyse how well the state has fared in achieving this objective. To be a successful developmental state, a strategic capacity should exist and a clear strategic conception of the state's national interest should be formulated. Old paradigms about the role and functions of the diplomatic corps are challenged and a meritocratic diplomatic corps is strongly advocated to support the state's declared developmental goals.     

构建社会主义和谐社会是一项战略任务

构建社会主义和谐社会,对于积极推进中国特色社会主义伟大事业,全面建设小康社会具有重要的理论和实践意义。必须把构建社会主义和谐社会作为一项重要的战略任务来落实,集中全社会之力,多方协调共同建设,形成促进社会和谐的强大合力。     

略论我国城市社会稳定的建构

城市化的加快和急剧的社会转型,使大量的农村人口涌入城市,城市中的社会组织逐步发生分化,原有的道德观念体系受到强烈冲击,社会分层现象日益明显。这一切使我国的城市社会稳定面临着严峻的考验。我们必须深入分析当前影响城市社会稳定的各种因素,建构城市社会稳定体系。     

试论犯罪经济学的原理

犯罪经济学的理论基础是犯罪经济学所阐述的各种具体理论、观点的出发点,是统帅犯罪经济学各种具体理论、观点全局的基本理论。其核心是探讨如何解决和处理由资源的稀缺性同人类欲望的无限性这对矛盾引起的犯罪等非法活动问题。其构成要素主要有效用最大化、具有不同效率和协调作用的市场及市场主体稳定的偏好。犯罪经济学主要应用的理论有理性选择理论、成本和收益理论、惩罚成本和惩罚机率理论、边际效用理论等。犯罪经济学的理论价值在于:它的产生推动了犯罪学的深入发展,表明了经济学家也可以涉足犯罪研究领域,人类在同犯罪作斗争时也应讲求经济效益,等等。     

精英流出与农村稳定

大量农村精英流出是近年来农村稳定的直接原因;精英流动也成为资金、技术、知识、信息、观念向农村转移、促进城乡沟通以及村庄精英资源整合的重要机制,为积极构建乡村稳定局面做出了重要贡献。但精英流出也割裂了村庄的精英资源,对农村经济发展、政治改革、组织建设、文化传承等都存在负面影响。     

论构建和谐社会的制度保障

构建社会主义和谐社会需要有力的制度保障和有效的实施机制,构建和谐社会的制度保障需要从改革和稳定两个方面入手建设制度体系,并在动态发展中调整、优化和完善制度体系。要以科学改革观统领改革并完善制度,做到“六个完善、一个深化”;要以科学发展观维护稳定并强化制度,做到“一个提高、八个强化”。     

执法规范化建设的科学发展观解读

开展执法规范化建设既是深化“三基”工程建设成果的重要举措，更是保证公安事业持续发展的战略决策。执法规范化建设是一个复杂而长期的系统工程，必须以科学发展观为指导，坚持发展理念，把执法规范化建设作为适应执法新形势和构建现代警务的必然举措；坚持以人为本原则，在执法规范化建设中突出广大执法民警的主体作用，落实执法为民要求；坚持统筹方法，把执法思想、执法制度和执法机制等诸要素有机结合起来，全面协调和可持续地推动执法规范化建设的有序开展。     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELF‐CONTROL: EXAMINING SELF‐CONTROL THEORY'S STABILITY THESIS*

Research on self‐control theory consistently supports its central prediction that low self‐control significantly affects crime. The theory includes other predictions, however, that have received far less scrutiny. Among these is the argument that self‐control is developed early in childhood and that individual differences emerging then persist over time. The purpose of this study is to provide a rigorous test of the stability thesis. First, we examine the extent of stability and change in self‐control for a national sample of U.S. children age 7 to age 15. Second, we consider whether parenting continues to affect self‐control during adolescence—a period after the point at which self‐control differences should be fixed. The analysis revealed strong absolute and relative stability of self‐control for more than 80 percent of the sample, and this stability emerged in large part as early as age 7. Contradicting the theory was a smaller portion of respondents (roughly 16 percent) who experienced substantial absolute and relative changes in self‐control even after the age of 10. Moreover, parental socialization continued to affect self‐control during adolescence, even after accounting for both prior self‐control and exposure to parental socialization.