The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

“刑官”的知识结构解析——当代中国法律人职业化的历史透视(二)

知识在职业群体的界定中具有特别重要的意义 ,对特定群体的知识结构的分析 ,不仅可以帮助我们认识群体生活于其间的社会和制度的特性 ,也可以使我们深刻的理解群体的功能和作用。这是研究中国古代刑官知识结构和籍此探索刑官文化在现代延传的一般性前提。探寻刑官的知识结构 ,可以从三个角度出发 :其一是刑官任官前的一般知识储备 ,这可以从科举考试的科目及内容出发 ;其二是刑官行使职权所需要的专业性知识 ,这可以从国家对各级刑官制度化的选任和考课的基本要求来分析 ;其三是刑官总体的知识取向 ,这可以从国家和刑官本人如何消解司法风险来分析。研究结果提醒我们 ,强调法律人的道德责任以及加大司法风险的程度 ,并不必然有利于职业群体的形成 ,甚至可能成为我们从知识的专门性出发所进行的专业化努力的障碍。     

TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY PINK OR BLUE: HOW SEX SELECTION TECHNOLOGY FACILITATES GENDERCIDE AND WHAT WE CAN DO ABOUT IT

In the midst of a genetic revolution in medicine, Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) has become a well‐established technique to help infertile women achieve pregnancy. But many women are now turning to ART not just to circumvent infertility, but consciously to shape their families by determining the sex of their children. Many patriarchal cultures have a gender preference for males and to date have used technological advances in reproductive medicine to predetermine the sex of the child being born. Women have sought sex‐selective abortions, where the pregnancy was being terminated solely on the basis of the sex of the unborn fetus. The combination of ART advances and gender preference has led to the disappearance of at least 100 million girls from the world's population leading to a mass gendercide. This article examines the societal impact of unbalanced gender ratios and the need to regulate sex selection to avoid nations of bachelors.     

运用分子生物学方法鉴定生物检材种属的研究进展

生物检材的种属鉴定在法医、海关和食品行业中均有较多应用。当前,用于鉴定种属的分子生物学方法发展迅猛。本文结合文献,从用于种属鉴定的目的基因及筛选标准、主要分子生物学方法、鉴定存在的主要问题等方面进行综述,并结合Real-time PCR和SNP技术对未来种属鉴定的发展方向进行了预测。     

博士生招生工作中存在的主要问题及其对策

博士生招生工作是博士生“质量控制”的重要环节,招生工作的好坏直接关系到招生单位研究生培养的规模和博士生的实际能力。博士生招生工作有其特点,但我们应看到博士生招生工作中存在的一些问题,并在此基础上对于如何健全博士招考、转变招生理念以及完善招考工作程序等问题进行研究。     

Preferential Selection Independent of Race and Gender: Effects on Self-Evaluations and Newcomer Information-Seeking Behaviors

The current study investigated the effects of an experimentally imposed program of preferential selection on beneficiary self-evaluations and newcomer information-seeking behavior. One hundred-twenty undergraduates were randomly assigned to a classification condition (in which they were informed that they tended to think in either an analytical or abstract manner) and collaborated on a task in groups of three. A fourth participant was introduced into each of these 40 extant groups under either a condition of preferential selection or not. Preferentially selected newcomers were shown to have more positive self-evaluations than their nonpreferentially selected counterparts. The presence or absence of a similar (in terms of thinking style) incumbent moderated the effect of being preferentially selected on the use of specific information-seeking behaviors.     

火耗归公与集权低能——关于清代官僚制度的一个实证分析

中国古代官僚政治具有高度集权与极端低能的双重特点。以往的研究多依据“国家%D%D社会”的宏观理论探寻二者的关系。这种方法虽有很大启发意义 ,但也容易失之宽泛、抽象 ,缺乏对具体历史现象的解释力。本文选择专制集权官僚政治最后和最典型的代表———清代官僚政治作为研究对象。以清代著名财政改革“火耗归公”为切入点 ,力图用经济分析的方法从微观角度揭示过度集权与低能混乱间微妙的正相关联系。并在此基础上探讨集权低能体制的成因与制度后果。     

"香格里拉"保护与发展的探索及行动

"香格里拉"是人与自然和谐共生的理想境地.保护与发展她,是迪庆各族人民的自觉选择.在保持"香格里拉"传统文化和自然景观的同时,如何获得经济社会的可持续发展?首先要实施环境保护工程,加大森林资源保护力度;其次要实施旅游产业发展工程,加快开发各种旅游商品;第三要实施文明行为工程,强化现代法律法规意识.     

关于干部制度改革的几个重要问题

我国的干部制度改革已进入攻坚阶段。深化干部制度改革,需要根据干部的特点,将党政干部区分为政务类干部和事务类干部两类。在此基础上,需要积极推进政务类干部的选举,改革创新对事务类干部的选拔。