Parsimony in the Study of Tolerance and Intolerance

In replying to Mondak and Sanders, I introduce the notion of ``Kelvinist tolerance,' or an absolute absence of any intolerance whatsoever. I contend that while we can imagine such an extreme level of tolerence, in our empirical world it occurs about as frequently as the absolute zero of the Kelvin scale of temperature. Consequently, I reject the assertion of Mondak and Sanders that special statistical approaches are essential for analyzing tolerance, arguing instead in favor of parsimony in both conceptualization and analytical strategies.     

案外人异议之诉

新民事诉讼法第204条虽然设置了案外人异议之诉,但规定过于简单,在该诉的构造和适用要件方面尚有诸多内容需要通过司法解释和司法判例加以充实和完善。案外人异议之诉是执行救济的一种方法和手段,其目的在于阻止或撤销执行机构对执行标的的执行,在性质上属于特殊的命令诉讼。案外人异议之诉适用于所有的对财产的强制执行。     

Error Rates,Likelihood Ratios,and Jury Evaluation of Forensic Evidence

Forensic examiners regularly testify in criminal cases, informing the jurors whether crime scene evidence likely came from a source. In this study, we examine the impact of providing jurors with testimony further qualified by error rates and likelihood ratios, for expert testimony concerning two forensic disciplines: commonly used fingerprint comparison evidence and a novel technique involving voice comparison. Our method involved surveying mock jurors in Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 897 laypeople) using written testimony and judicial instructions. Participants were more skeptical of voice analysis and generated fewer “guilty” decisions than for fingerprint analysis (B = 2.00, OR = 7.06, p = <0.000). We found that error rate information most strongly decreased “guilty” votes relative to no qualifying information for participants who heard fingerprint evidence (but not those that heard voice analysis evidence; B = −1.16, OR = 0.32, p = 0.007). We also found that error rates and conclusion types led to a greater decrease on “guilty” votes for fingerprint evidence than voice evidence (B = 1.44, OR = 4.23, p = 0.021). We conclude that these results suggest jurors adjust the weight placed on forensic evidence depending on their prior views about its reliability. Future research should develop testimony and judicial instructions that can better inform jurors of the strengths and limitations of forensic evidence.     

Tooth hop variability in human and nonhuman bone: Effect on the estimation of saw blade TPI

Forensic research has demonstrated that tooth hop (TH) is a valuable measurement from saw-cut bones as it can be used to estimate teeth-per-inch (TPI) of a saw used in postmortem dismemberment cases. However, error rates for TPI estimation are still under development and knowledge of how bone tissue affects TH measurements remains unclear. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of tissue variability through the use of different taxa on the accuracy and precision of TH measurements in the bone to estimate TPI of the blade. A total of 1766 TH measurements were analyzed from human, pig, and deer long bones cut by two 7 TPI saw blades of different tooth type. Fifty distance-between-teeth measurements before and after sawing were collected directly from each blade for comparison to bone-measured TH to assess potential effects of tooth wear on TH variability. ANOVA and F tests were used to compare mean TH and variance, respectively, by saw-species (i.e., crosscut-deer, rip-deer) and species groups (i.e., all deer, all pig), with significance determined at the p < 0.05 level. TH measurements were converted to usable TPI ranges, which would typically be presented in a forensic report. It is concluded that significant differences in TH (mm) do not necessarily reflect significant differences in associated TPI ranges of suspect blades. Forensic reports should report mean TPI ± 1.5–2.5 TPI while providing a sample size indicating number of TH measured rather than just number of cuts or cut surfaces examined.     

The long and the short of it: Electoral institutions and the dynamics of party system size, 1950–2005

While institutional theories of party system size are usually examined cross‐nationally, there is ample reason to expect that changes in electoral institutions will affect party system size within countries as well. Although some of this effect may occur immediately, most of the effects are likely to be realised over time and across subsequent elections. A series of error‐correction models examine the short‐ and long‐term effects of changes in electoral institutions on party system size. The results indicate that changes in electoral institutions do produce the expected effects on party system size, and that these effects occur mostly over the long term.     

证明理性化与刑事定罪标准之调整——基于防控司法错误的视角

近年来,一些学者主张我国应吸收借鉴西方国家的排除合理怀疑的证明标准,客观地讲,该证明标准在西方确实能最大限度地防控错判无辜的司法错误,同时还可以兼顾错放罪犯的司法错误,但却是以一套科学合理的证明机制为配套的。鉴于我国现实的制度语境,庭审证明标准能否松动不仅在于语词的改换,更在于语境的转换与配套证明机制之完善。     

析教唆犯与间接正犯之间认识错误的认定与处理——以部分的主客观相统一原则为立场

对于教唆犯与间接正犯之间认识错误,中外学说和实务上皆形成观点聚讼。我们主张应以部分的主客观相统一原则为立场解决这个问题。这说明任何细小问题的解决,其实均离不开特定的价值立场。刑法学研究应自觉地穿行于问题与主义之间。     

数额认识错误初论

数额认识错误,是指行为人对表现为货币或财物的行为对象的经济价值量的认识错误,即行为人主观上认识到的行为对象的经济价值与实际经济价值的不一致。从本质上看,它并不是一种独立的错误类型,而是属于事实错误中的对象认识错误。是否属于数额认识错误,应当依据法定符合说进行判断。行为人对行为对象数额的认识错误超出构成要件所要求的限度,就会影响到故意的成立以及行为人的刑事责任。