An experience report regarding the performance of the IBIS correlator

The majority of published experimental evaluations of the performance of the IBIS system are based on very specific conditions, mainly considering IBIS as a tool to create a "ballistic database." No recent reports were found covering the performance of the IBIS system to search an open case file of realistic structure. In this paper, the performance of the IBIS correlator will be evaluated, based on four different data sources that predominantly concern the operation of the central collection of evidence ammunition of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Germany. The results allow a conclusion on the success and error rates to be expected of the IBIS correlator in a realistic OCFDB ("open case file database") environment, given certain conditions. It was found that success rates of 75-95% for cartridge case comparisons and 50-75% for bullet comparisons can be achieved in practice. Recommendations for a most efficient way to operate the IBIS electronic comparison system will be presented based on the results of the evaluations. The terms and definitions in this report completely correspond with the definitions in an earlier article. Familiarity with this article is therefore absolutely necessary to fully understand many of the statements presented here.     

辩诉交易与诉讼效率——基于成本—收益的经济学分析

法律经济分析方法的引进,以一个全新的视角突出了诉讼效率在现代司法中的重要性。在辩诉交易制度的引进过程中,同样存在着成本与收益的问题,同时其成本与收益具有自己的特点。通过对辩诉交易的成本—收益分析,达到定量分析的效果,从而对这一制度在我国的现实应用产生有益的启示。     

视频方法鉴定车速的准确性研究

目的通过实验研究用视频方法鉴定车速结果的准确性及其影响因素。方法在选定的实验场地上,让实验车辆以一定速度匀速通过一段距离,使用高空、垂直、斜角和车载四个位置的摄像机同时录制,将车速计算结果进行比较。结果理论和实验数据分析表明,误差的大小主要取决于:车速和帧速率,车体上参考点和路上参考点的对齐效果,还有行车距离的大小和播放器屏幕的大小等。结论用视频方法进行车速鉴定,相对于传统的用力学公式进行计算,其准确性和可信度较好;一般条件下,误差可在5%~10%之间估算;夜晚条件下,可在车灯的轮廓线上选择车体上参考点,炫目情况除外。     

Microscopic Saw Mark Analysis: An Empirical Approach

Microscopic saw mark analysis is a well published and generally accepted qualitative analytical method. However, little research has focused on identifying and mitigating potential sources of error associated with the method. The presented study proposes the use of classification trees and random forest classifiers as an optimal, statistically sound approach to mitigate the potential for error of variability and outcome error in microscopic saw mark analysis. The statistical model was applied to 58 experimental saw marks created with four types of saws. The saw marks were made in fresh human femurs obtained through anatomical gift and were analyzed using a Keyence digital microscope. The statistical approach weighed the variables based on discriminatory value and produced decision trees with an associated outcome error rate of 8.62–17.82%.     

Secondary Iatrogenic Harm: Claims for Psychiatric Damage Following a Death Caused by Medical Error

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of claims for psychiatric damage following the death of a family member, where that death has been caused by medical error. ¹ The relative's position is a subject of heightened interest since the exposure of the plight of the parents involved in the UK organ scandal, ² and in the case of an iatrogenic death it is, of course, the family who are essentially the focus of the law's attempts to provide redress. Whilst the cases of deceased patients' relatives seeking damages for mental harm are inherently problematic in light of the restrictive secondary victim criteria applicable to psychiatric damage claims, a close look at the rules which permeate this area of compensation reveals that denying compensation to the relative suffering psychiatric harm is difficult to sustain. ³     

Measurement Error in County-Level UCR Data

Maltz and Targonski (2002) have provided an important service by disaggregating the county level data to help researchers examine measurement errors in the county level data, but their conclusion that county-level crime data, as they are currently constituted, should not be used, especially in policy studies is not justified. All data has measurement error, presumably even their measures of this error. Unfortunately, however, Maltz and Targonski provide no systematic test for how bad the data are. Their graphs obscure both the small number of counties affected, that these are rural counties, and that just because some of the population in a county is not represented in calculating the crime rate, that is not the same thing as showing that the reported number is in error. Nor do they provide evidence for the more important issue of whether there is a systematic bias in the data. The evidence provided here indicates right-to-carry laws continue to produce substantial reductions in violent crime rates when states with the greatest measurement error are excluded. In fact, restricting the sample results in somewhat larger reductions in murders and robberies, but smaller reductions in aggravated assaults.     

宪法泛政治化的逻辑归谬与历史反思

马伯里诉麦迪逊案创立的“政治问题不审查”之宪法惯例及与美国宪法传统相契合的政治观,将对宪法正当性的逻辑判断转读为对于主体的道德依赖,其生成的逻辑结构未免带有强迫性,导致宪法的泛政治化。近代旧中国立宪的逻辑怪圈亦然:宪法“移植”使得“应然宪法”性状无法获得“实然宪法”有效地证明,则悖论产生;“自上而下”的立宪路径和权力本位,使得宪法缺少正当性基础;明显的“工具性”特征,造成“政治”与“宪法”的“目标冲突”,形成“体”和“用”的二律背反。事实就是:宪法的泛政治化是一个世界现象,防止宪法泛政治化,宪法司法化具有价值上的合理性,但以司法化为导向的中国宪政目标之实现尚需经历一个长期的准备阶段,要防止两种极端倾向:悲观主义和冒进主义。     

Rap sheets in criminological research: Considerations and caveats

The types of errors found in official criminal history records are not completely understood by many researchers, and this lack of understanding can lead to serious misinterpretations. Analyses of a recently developed database of New Orleans offenders indicate that the use of rap sheets with a limited catchment area can lead to gross distortions of the effects of variables related to geographic mobility, such as race and age. Evidence from a number of sources indicates that false-negative error is a serious problem, particularly in fingerprint-based record systems. In addition, arrest records lend themselves to a variety of common misinterpretations by researchers in the coding process, including failing to identify multievent arrests, misclassifying arrests, and treating arrest or custody process events as crimes indicating criminal activity of the individual while free. Solutions to some of these problems are suggested.     

侦查错误的原因及对策探究

侦查错误理论要求侦查主体在侦查过程中正确、全面、发展地诠释和抑制对科学侦查有负面导向的侦查主体致错因素、侦查客体致错因素、侦查方法致错因素和相关人致错因素。侦查主体未能形成正确的侦查错误意识,不明确侦查错误的表现形式和缺乏探求侦查错误成因的勇气是很难在侦查错误预防上大有所为的。所以,运用侦查学基础知识,准确界定侦查错误概念,明确侦查错误表现形式,探求侦查错误原因,进行侦查错误预防是十分必要的。     

Pretend It Doesn'T Work: The ‘Anti-Social’ Bias In The Maryland Scientific Methods Scale

The social constructs and methodological principles embodied in the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale (SMS), comprising part of the Campbell Collaboration in Crime and Justice assessment protocol, induce a series of biases in the evaluation of evidence of crime prevention policy interventions that focus on collective social phenomena, such as communities. Applying these principles leads to negative conclusions about effectiveness; yet their inherent ‘anti-social’ bias may induce Type II error with regard to the desirability of ‘social’ interventions to reduce crime. Policy-making is poorly served as a result. This point is illustrated, first, through a scrutiny of the social constructs used, including those that typify treatments, institutional settings and units of analysis. These are seen as being constructed in a way that is congenial to the underlying methodological issue of ‘control’ but that constitute nevertheless a distorted definition of the governance issues involved in crime reduction in community settings. A model more appropriate for evaluating voluntaristic action in civil society is needed. Second, it is suggested that this methodological bias arises particularly in policy interventions and change programmes that address issues concerning the ‘collective efficacy’ of local communities in reducing crime. An empirical exemplification of these arguments is presented with reference to a completed evaluation research study (Foster and Hope, 1993).