Social Democracy's Muted Revival

After a long malaise, social democracy is making a muted revival. What is the place of social democracy in the political and economic order that is emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the economic crisis that has followed in its wake? Patterns have begun to emerge across the party family that are indicative of how social democracy is defining itself for the period to come. This article briefly surveys the revival of social democracy in three countries that have been historic bastions of the creed: Germany, Britain and Australia. It considers three particularly potent trends in this social democratic moment that reveal the movement's current character and the challenges it faces: building an ongoing coalition amid changing electorates; seeking transformation in an era of constraint; and a lack of ideological coherence. It considers what this muted resurgence suggests about the prospects for the centre-left.     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

What do forensic analysts consider relevant to their decision making?

In response to research demonstrating that irrelevant contextual information can bias forensic science analyses, authorities have increasingly urged laboratories to limit analysts' access to irrelevant and potentially biasing information (Dror and Cole (2010) [3]; National Academy of Sciences (2009) [18]; President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) [22]; UK Forensic Science Regulator (2015) [26]). However, a great challenge in implementing this reform is determining which information is task-relevant and which is task-irrelevant. In the current study, we surveyed 183 forensic analysts to examine what they consider relevant versus irrelevant in their forensic analyses. Results revealed that analysts generally do not regard information regarding the suspect or victim as essential to their analytic tasks. However, there was significant variability among analysts within and between disciplines. Findings suggest that forensic science disciplines need to agree on what they regard as task-relevant before context management procedures can be properly implemented. The lack of consensus about what is relevant information not only leaves room for biasing information, but also reveals foundational gaps in what analysts consider crucial in forensic decision making.     

中美复合战略稳定关系:建构依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性，向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下，中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端，经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱，建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存，在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益，这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱，其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板，但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善，中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。     

The European lavender vote: Sexuality,ideology and vote choice in Western Europe

In many European democracies, political punditry has highlighted the attempts of political parties on the left to court the ‘lavender vote’ of lesbian, gay and bisexual individuals. This article examines the presence of a gay vote in Western Europe with a focus on assessing the role of sexuality in shaping individuals’ political preferences and voting behaviour. Empirically, the effect of sexuality on both ideological identification as well as party vote choice is analysed. Using a cumulative dataset of eight rounds of the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2017, this article demonstrates that partnered lesbians and gay men are more likely than comparable heterosexuals to identify with the left, support leftist policy objectives and vote for left-of-centre political parties. The analysis represents the first empirical cross-national European study of the voting behaviour of homosexual individuals and sheds new light on the importance of sexuality as a predictor of political ideology and voting behaviour within the Western European context.     

制度差异与制度创新:多元制度互动下的大湾区改革

在一国两制的背景下,香港、澳门与内地之间的制度差异如何影响粤港澳大湾区的发展?学界对此仍关注不足。论文基于制度主义理论,构建了"制度差异-张力-制度创新"的理论框架,以深圳前海自贸区的工程建设管理制度改革为案例,分析了制度差异推动改革创新的机制。研究发现,不同的制度逻辑形塑行动主体的认知与行为,因此多元制度在互动中能够产生张力,进而激发行为主体的能动性,促使其反思、设计新的制度、采取改革行动,最终促成制度创新。中国内地与港澳的制度在"一国两制"方针下得以多元共存,制度差异在粤港澳密切互动中产生的张力是大湾区改革的创新源泉,使大湾区在国家改革与发展大局中发挥重要作用。     

British Campaigns for Solidarity with Argentina and Chile

The Chile solidarity movement persuaded British Labour governments (1974–1979) to introduce a range of measures against the Pinochet regime. But campaigners lobbying against the Argentine dictatorship (1976–1983) had less impact on policy. Neither these Labour governments nor the subsequent Conservative government imposed any sanction on the Argentine dictatorship, until the invasion of the Falkland Islands. This article explores why in Britain – and Europe – the Chile campaign had greater public appeal than the Argentina solidarity campaigns. It identifies a number of common factors across Europe which explain why the anti-Pinochet cause generated more support than the Argentina campaign.     

The Stability of 4-Chloromethcathinone in Blood and Vitreous Humor

We present results of our study on the stability of 4-chloromethcathinone (4-CMC) in authentic postmortem peripheral blood and vitreous humor samples. The stability of 4-CMC was determined in postmortem blood samples (for a period of 90 days) and vitreous humor (30 days) at three different temperatures: −15°C, +4°C, and + 23°C. The analyses were carried out using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with triple-quadrupole tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QqQ-MS/MS). In both materials, the lowest 4-CMC stability was demonstrated at room temperature. The blood samples stored in a freezer (−15°C) showed stability for the entire study period (90 days), while in the case of the vitreous humor sample stored at the same temperature the concentration of the substance decreased by 53% after 30 days. The study carried out in authentic postmortem blood and vitreous humor samples confirms the previous reports of 4-CMC instability in biological material. Authors suggest that the biological material should be stored frozen until analyses are carried out as soon as possible after collection of the material.     

The Role of Brand Orientation in Developing a Learning Culture and Achieving Performance Goals in the Third Sector Organizations

ABSTRACT

This study is first in nature to find the empirical evidence of relationship between brand orientation (BRO), learning orientation (LO), and its impact on Performance (PERF) of third sector organizations (TSOs) in Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was filled through non-probability snowball sampling method from more than 300 senior managers working in different cities of Pakistan. The structural equation model was used for the mediation by running smart partial least squares software. The results prove that organizations with strong BRO philosophy not only help to develop strong LO culture but also help in achieving organizational performance goals. The study also discussed practical implications, limitations, and areas of future directions.     

Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.