RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OFFENDING FREQUENCY (λ) OF IMPRISONED AND FREE OFFENDERS*

In the public debate over incarceration policy, there is considerable disagreement about what value of individual offending frequency (λ) is appropriate to use in estimating incapacitative effects. This article provides an approach for estimating the mean values of λ for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system. Sharp differences in offending frequency are displayed between robbery and burglary inmates, across three states, and particularly between resident inmates and free, active offenders. Free offenders average 1 to 3 robberies and 2 to 4 burglaries per year, while resident inmates have λ values 10 to 50 times higher. Differences result from the underlying levels of criminal activity and the sanction Levels that offenders face. A highly heterogeneous distribution of offending frequency in the total population of offenders combines with relatively Low imprisonment levels to lead to substantial selectivity of high-λ offenders among resident inmates and a correspondingly low mean value of λ among those offenders who remain free. These results have important implications for estimating incapacitative effects of an increase in incarceration, since the additional inmates will be drawn from free offenders whose mean λ is at least an order of magnitude Lower than that of the current inmate population.     

Zero to Three: Critical Issues for the Juvenile and Family Court

Infants are the fastest growing population in foster care. Without intervention they are at great risk of poor developmental outcomes. Juvenile and family courts have a unique opportunity to make a positive difference in the lives of the babies in their care. This article outlines six critical issues that impact the development of very young children in the child welfare system and recommends strategies that juvenile and family courts can use to address the needs of this most vulnerable population.     

SOME NEW EVIDENCE ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF CRIME*

Previous studies of the seriousness of crime have attempted to elicit information from public surveys. This paper reports on an alternative method of ranking the severity of crime. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate pain, suffering, and fear. Crime-related death rates are combined with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. These estimates are combined with out-of-pocket costs (such as medical costs and lost wages) to arrive at total dollar estimates of the cost of individual crimes to victims. These dollar estimates are then used to rank the seriousness of crimes. Although these two approaches yield surprisingly similar rankings, the monetary estimates indicate that violent crimes are relatively more costly to victims than survey results might imply.     

Parenting in Dependency Drug Court

The Dependency Drug Court (DDC) in Miami, Florida, addresses the needs of families affected by substance abuse through a comprehensive and therapeutic approach. The DDC works with community agencies to provide services that effectively treat the family as a unit. This article discusses the process of adapting a parenting program to meet the needs of families in the DDC.     

ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS?*

This paper investigates the effectiveness of police raids in reducing drug dealing in and around nuisance bars. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration (months) of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding areas. Results indicate that the police intervention suppresses levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but the effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and surrounding areas. Target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels of risk. Risk factors in nearby areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population‐based risk in surrounding areas are harder to treat.     

SELF-INTEREST,EQUITY, AND CRIME CONTROL: A GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING

Employing the analytic technique of game theory, we attempt to answer questions about how individuals with different proclivities to use crime to accomplish ends, and different beliefs about society's fairness, are likely to respond to different incentives and disincentives that are derived from strain and neoclassical deterrence theories. Our analysis indicates that the crime control policies typically recommended by adherents of both theories are often logically invalid, given the premises upon which they are supposedly based. For example, our analysis suggests why punishment strategies like “three strikes and you're out” and “entitlement strategies” such as welfare and other short-term redistributive payment programs fail to deter crime. Finally, after including notions of equity with traditional rational choice assumptions, our analysis identifies a mix of theoretically derived strategies that may more effectively deter crime.     

Building sustainable professional capacity in African public sectors: retention constraints in Kenya

Significant investments are being made by aid agencies to increase Master's-level training of African professionals serving in the public sector. Yet no case studies present detailed data or analysis of past efforts to build sustainable human capacity in governmental institutions. The article reviews career and retention data on 169 economists, planners, and statisticians trained under funding provided by 6 long-term aid projects for targeted posts in Kenyan ministries. After reviewing retention constraints revealed by this data and other evidence, it offers recommendations that might assist governments and aid agencies to design and implement capacity building initiatives with a higher probability of ensuring that returned graduates serve for adequate periods of time in the positions for which they were trained. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Public Admin. Dev. Vol. 17 , 307–324 (1997). No. of Figures: 0. No. of Tables: 1. No. of Refs: 31.